DECADE User Advice- Fairway Bunkers

[Patrick Bateman]

I've listened to a lot of Scott Fawcett on various podcasts etc. and have the app, I don't play enough to warrant going in to loads of detail with it but even just listening to lots of podcasts and reading the free content he's produced is an eye opener.

One area I'm not 100% clear on is how severely different hazards are rated. Penalty areas/out of bounds are a no brainer but fairway bunkers is one I'm not totally sure on. I know they're one to avoid but where does avoiding them at the cost of always having a long second shot start to not pay off?

The 11th at my home course is the prime example for me. It's a 454 yard par 4 off the back pegs and probably the toughest tee shot on the course. The trees to the right are death given the length of the rough in them so best treated like a lost ball 8 times out of 10. We're not a million miles away from St. Andrews so the wind can and often does blow which will vary this (I've been anything from a 9 iron to a fairway wood into this green) but essentially the 2 fairway bunkers below will be in play with driver unless straight into a strong wind. The only way I'm flying them (not that you'd want to fly the left one) is a perfect strike with a strong tail wind.

My question is, is it worth me hitting my fairway wood off the tee to guarantee taking them out of play (assuming no strong tail wind)? If you're in either of them you can forget the green. Looking at the 'driver decision tree' the app has, it would suggest so but this is going to leave me with a 3 hybrid into the green an awful lot. My main fear being a mis-hit with the fairway wood (not uncommon!) going 200 yards is going to pretty much kill any chance of making the green in 2, even if it stays straight.

Screenshot based on a 260 yard drive, 65 yard dispersion. Leaves 190-200 to the centre of the green which can easily play a good 20-30 yards longer. Curious to hear the thoughts of anyone who's dug into this more than I have! The decision is usually easier on the rest of the course as fairway wood often just brings different bunkers into play so driver is a no-brainer.

 

[BuckNasty]

@Jman @captaincaution

 

[Daddio]

Distances are different as I don't have your horsepower but it's a great question. Eager to better understand the trade offs. I guess it would depend heavily upon how much more difficult those bunkers play than the rough does?

 

[greenOak]

DECADE's rule of thumb is that if the fairway is >30 yards wide hit driver. If it pinches to less than 30 yards and is >30 yards where 3-wood would end up, hit 3-wood. If it pinches to less than 30 yards and is still less than 30 yards wide where 3-wood would end up, hit driver. Just based on the picture I would guess DECADE would recommend hitting 3-wood.

 

[willplaysgolf]

I'm a Decade user, and while I don't know of the exact answer that Scott would say, here's my best guess. Here are the average Tour strokes to hole out from 200-240:

	FW	Rough	Bunker	Recovery
200​	3.19​	3.42​	3.55​	3.87​
220​	3.32​	3.53​	3.7​	3.92​
240​	3.45​	3.64​	3.84​	3.97​

(Formal definition of a shot marked as recovery is that it went less than 40% of the distance to the hole or more than 15 degrees away from the target line to the hole) If 100% of the time you had a shot at the green from the bunker, you could argue driver is the play since being in the rough ~230 out is the same as being in the bunker 200 out. However once you start factoring in some percentage of pitch outs from the bunker, it becomes harder to make up the strokes lost pitching out over 1000s of theoretical rounds. Since you mentioned the bunkers being dead it's even more likely that you would lose strokes hitting driver every time.

The way I rationalize this without data is that if you lay back, you will almost always be near the green in 2 even if you rarely hit it in 2. Where if you drive it into the bunker, you will almost always not be near the green in 2.

 

[jjjgolf500]

I think the kicker here is that you can't advance the ball out of the bunker. That kind of eliminates the ability to analyze the SG and % data from those yardages. You almost have to act like they are a hazard.

 

[greenOak]

I'm a Decade user, and while I don't know of the exact answer that Scott would say, here's my best guess. Here are the average Tour strokes to hole out from 200-240:

	FW	Rough	Bunker	Recovery
200​	3.19​	3.42​	3.55​	3.87​
220​	3.17​	3.53​	3.7​	3.92​
240​	3.45​	3.64​	3.84​	3.97​

(Formal definition of a shot marked as recovery is that it went less than 40% of the distance to the hole or more than 15 degrees away from the target line to the hole) If 100% of the time you had a shot at the green from the bunker, you could argue driver is the play since being in the rough ~230 out is the same as being in the bunker 200 out. However once you start factoring in some percentage of pitch outs from the bunker, it becomes harder to make up the strokes lost pitching out over 1000s of theoretical rounds. Since you mentioned the bunkers being dead it's even more likely that you would lose strokes hitting driver every time.

The way I rationalize this without data is that if you lay back, you will almost always be near the green in 2 even if you rarely hit it in 2. Where if you drive it into the bunker, you will almost always not be near the green in 2.

Are the FW numbers for 200 and 220 correct? Asking because the average strokes to hole out from 220 is lower than average strokes to hole out from 200.

 

[wadesworld]

I would say it's very bunker-dependent. After all, not all fairway bunkers are created equal. If it's a fairway bunker with a massive lip that prevents you from advancing the ball much that makes a big difference over your typical flat low-lip fairway bunker.

 

[willplaysgolf]

Are the FW numbers for 200 and 220 correct? Asking because the average strokes to hole out from 220 is lower than average strokes to hole out from 200.

That's a typo, will fix!

 

[MSEASU]

If fairway pinches to less than 40 yards and you can’t carry hazard, drop down to
3w.

 

[Patrick Bateman]

Thanks for all the input, looks like fairway wood will be the play most of the time although it will feel odd on such a long par 4.

One thing to add I'd forgotten that I think will contribute to backing this up is the burn (creek for you chaps) that runs across the fairway about half way to the green from the bunkers. On the off chance you were far enough back in the right hand bunker to try and get greedy with an attempt at the green (rare but possible in theory), this is waiting to catch any inevitably chunked shots.

 

[captaincaution]

I am going to go different that everyone else in here.

You can take 3 wood to avoid the bunkers all the time, but it sounds like you are pretty much making the hole a 3 shot hole no matter what.

If you hit the ball in the bunkers, you are pitching out, advancing, lets say 50-60 yards, and then you have a chance to get on in 3.

You have to look at all of the possible outcomes, not just one outcome. By going back to 3 wood, you are taking all of the drivers that miss the bunkers, leaving you a chance to get on in regulation, and trading them for a longer approach that basically guarantees you aren't getting home in 2. And you aren't guaranteed to hit the fairway with 3 wood either!

a 454 yard par 4 is hard. Send it. Find it, and make your next decision from there.

 

[HarlettoScara]

That's a long par 4... I'd be very much in the camp of pulling driver every single time here. There is no guarantee that I'll hit the 3w well and I would much rather have those extra few yards to give myself as much chance as possible of hitting the green in two. Potential card wrecker right enough, especially with the burn sat there too!

Wherabouts is the course?

 

[wadesworld]

I am going to go different that everyone else in here.

You can take 3 wood to avoid the bunkers all the time, but it sounds like you are pretty much making the hole a 3 shot hole no matter what.

If you hit the ball in the bunkers, you are pitching out, advancing, lets say 50-60 yards, and then you have a chance to get on in 3.

You have to look at all of the possible outcomes, not just one outcome. By going back to 3 wood, you are taking all of the drivers that miss the bunkers, leaving you a chance to get on in regulation, and trading them for a longer approach that basically guarantees you aren't getting home in 2. And you aren't guaranteed to hit the fairway with 3 wood either!

a 454 yard par 4 is hard. Send it. Find it, and make your next decision from there.

I think that's the right approach for this hole. While you may hit it in the bunker on occasion, that just makes it a three-shot hole, which it likely would have been if you had hit 3-Wood. So the driver is definitely worth the fairly small risk in this instance.

 

[drb1956]

Me, I would have no problem with 3 wood off the tee, lay up as need be down the fairway, hit my 3rd stroke to tbe green, trying to get as close as I can to pin, as the case may be, put for par, 2 putt for bogie. Bogie on this hole might just be a good score, at least for me. If the rough is an automatic lost ball, 5 anyway. I rather have the bogie in MY control, not the course shoving it down my throat. And not losing a ball. If your 3rd is a "go for it shot", and you are certain you CAN make it, by all means! Me, I have been avoiding those type of shots, and my scorecard reflects that this season. Long par 4's to me are a par 5 in my mind, and then no stress down the fairway, as I am thinking 5 all the way..I play as the course demands, but no stress...

 

[Patrick Bateman]

Sounds like we need to get Scott involved to settle this!

If I was to hit fairway wood off the tee it's not turning the hole into a 3 shotter in terms of distance but we would be talking a good hybrid strike as a minimum to get there. Dispersion from 200-220 yards is obviously large though so it would often end up in a chip/pitch from the side of the green.

It's not a huge sample but it's the best I can offer in terms of actual data, based on 10 rounds (competition play only) where I have used shotscope here are the numbers with using driver off the tee-

 

[Patrick Bateman]

That's a long par 4... I'd be very much in the camp of pulling driver every single time here. There is no guarantee that I'll hit the 3w well and I would much rather have those extra few yards to give myself as much chance as possible of hitting the green in two. Potential card wrecker right enough, especially with the burn sat there too!

Wherabouts is the course?

It's Scotscraig. Used to be used for the Open qualifying for St.Andrews until they changed the format a while back. Mostly links in feel but there are a few holes on the back 9 where you'd believe you were in the middle of Scotland.

 

[captaincaution]

It's Scotscraig. Used to be used for the Open qualifying for St.Andrews until they changed the format a while back. Mostly links in feel but there are a few holes on the back 9 where you'd believe you were in the middle of Scotland.

What a good golf hole. I still stand with send it. Into the wind, the bunkers might not even be reached. Down wind, driver could clear and there it widens past the bunkers, maybe the target shifts a little right. If it is firm, 3 wood could still reach the bunkers. Send it with a good target, and let the ball end up where it does.

 

[HarlettoScara]

It's Scotscraig. Used to be used for the Open qualifying for St.Andrews until they changed the format a while back. Mostly links in feel but there are a few holes on the back 9 where you'd believe you were in the middle of Scotland.

I've never played it sadly, but if that par 4 is any indication I'll not be off the tips

 

[MSEASU]

Like mentioned Scott would say 3w. Here is driver decision tree

 

[Patrick Bateman]

To those saying driver, what do you say about the decision tree rationale in this instance?

 

[captaincaution]

To those saying driver, what do you say about the decision tree rationale in this instance?

What I have already said below.

What a good golf hole. I still stand with send it. Into the wind, the bunkers might not even be reached. Down wind, driver could clear and there it widens past the bunkers, maybe the target shifts a little right. If it is firm, 3 wood could still reach the bunkers. Send it with a good target, and let the ball end up where it does.

The decision tree is a starting point. In many of Scott's videos, he says that you usually need a really good reason to go back to 3 wood or less.

By laying back, you are giving up distance on 100 percent of your shots, many of those won't give you a clear shot to the green because of the dogleg and the trees on the inside corner. You've made, by the sound of it, 100 percent of your tries at this hole a 3 shot hole. If you go driver, some of your shots are going to be in the bunkers, making it a 3 shot hole, but a lot of them are going to miss, giving you a chance to reach and make an easier par.

Like I said, this is a really good hole, and a hard one at that. I really think committing to driver is the play.