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Staff Predictions - 2011 PGA Championship

Tough to call. I'm going to go with McIlroy because I still think he'll have something to prove. But I'm sure people could make a case for Westwood, Donald, Scott, DJ and Day. Darkhorse?.....Robert Karlsson.
 
That was a great read, thank you. I appreciate all of the hard work and insight that went into that thoughtful and collaborative piece. Well done!
 
TexasHacker34 said:
I enjoyed reading the picks, I am somewhat surprised no one mentioned Jason Day after his showings at majors this year. I really hope the guy gets one under his belt this week.
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I was surprised nobody picked Jason Day as well, he had great showings at Augusta and the US Open, if he gets his putter sorted out he could be tough this week.

Dark horse? What about Y.E. Yang...he always seems to find his way to the first page of the leader board in these big events.

Donald, Westwood, and Kaymer, who struggles and just makes the cut.

Tiger is outside the top 15, he only hit something like 30% of the fairways last week. This week the rough is thicker and more punishing. His first round is the key, if he has a bad first round I could even see him missing the cut.
 
TC said:
You're right, he grinded his way to a decent finish. But man, did he have to work hard for it. I can't imagine how mentally exhausting that must have been. No doubt he's earned his spot but you and I both know he's never been one to "play" his way into form. Even though he might jeopardize playing in the Fedex playoffs he's already said he's not playing in Greensboro, so that tells me that he isn't all that interested in playing into form.
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He really did, it's something none of us are used to seeing. Maybe some things have really changed and he is playing his way back into form physically...mentally he thinks he's the best and is there to win, but we know otherwise, he just won't concede that fact. I just don't seem him contending, it's not Augusta, but feel he'll at least make the cut.

Does anyone know where he needs to finish to make the playoffs?
 
biggsy said:
Does anyone know where he needs to finish to make the playoffs?
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This came out before the Bridgestone to give you an idea: According to the PGA Tour, Woods needs a seventh-place finish, two 24th place finishes or three 40th-place finishes to advance to the playoffs.

Considering he finished T-32nd last weekend (I think), my guess is he needs a top 15 to guarantee that he makes it.
 
biggsy said:
He really did, it's something none of us are used to seeing. Maybe some things have really changed and he is playing his way back into form physically...mentally he thinks he's the best and is there to win, but we know otherwise, he just won't concede that fact. I just don't seem him contending, it's not Augusta, but feel he'll at least make the cut.

Does anyone know where he needs to finish to make the playoffs?
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I agree. All I know is he'll have a better chance of making the playoffs if he'd actually play some other tournaments. I'd love to see him play some of the "smaller" events, go somewhere where he can make lots of birdies, start seeing the ball hit the bottom of the cup. You know?
 
The darkhorses for this tournament always intrigues me. Look at a few of the other past Champions that were relatively unknowns (Beem, Micheel). It's a tournament where a darkhorse has a legitimate shot to win:

Who has the most bold darkhorse:
TC (Cink - 85th in the rankings)
Todd (Z Johnson - 29th)
Jason (Love III - 96th)
GG (Kim - 61st)
Hawk (Gainey - 97th)
Smallville (Garcia - 51st)
JB (Woodland - 37th)

I really like that Love pick for a darkhorse, definitely under the radar. I'm going to throw another one out there. Brendon de Jonge (101). He's coming off a T7, T13 and T4. This will be his first major of the year. His stats don't jump out at you, but he's on a bit of a hot streak and could surprise.



mcook77 said:
This came out before the Bridgestone to give you an idea: According to the PGA Tour, Woods needs a seventh-place finish, two 24th place finishes or three 40th-place finishes to advance to the playoffs.

Considering he finished T-32nd last weekend (I think), my guess is he needs a top 15 to guarantee that he makes it.
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Thank you.

TC said:
I agree. All I know is he'll have a better chance of making the playoffs if he'd actually play some other tournaments. I'd love to see him play some of the "smaller" events, go somewhere where he can make lots of birdies, start seeing the ball hit the bottom of the cup. You know?
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I don't disagree.
 
biggsy said:
The darkhorses for this tournament always intrigues me. Look at a few of the other past Champions that were relatively unknowns (Beem, Micheel). It's a tournament where a darkhorse has a legitimate shot to win:

Who has the most bold darkhorse:
TC (Cink - 85th in the rankings)
Todd (Z Johnson - 29th)
Jason (Love III - 96th)
GG (Kim - 61st)
Hawk (Gainey - 97th)
Smallville (Garcia - 51st)
JB (Woodland - 37th)

I really like that Love pick for a darkhorse, definitely under the radar. I'm going to throw another one out there. Brendon de Jonge (101). He's coming off a T7, T13 and T4. This will be his first major of the year. His stats don't jump out at you, but he's on a bit of a hot streak and could surprise.
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I figured with Garcia I would be one of, if not the lowest rather than third highest! I was surprised TC took #85 when his darkhorse is usually a top 10 player, hehehe.

These picks are fun to do and always fun to laugh at how bad we picked at the end.
 
Smallville said:
I figured with Garcia I would be one of, if not the lowest rather than third highest! I was surprised TC took #85 when his darkhorse is usually a top 10 player, hehehe.

These picks are fun to do and always fun to laugh at how bad we picked at the end.
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I'm actually surprised Garcia is that low, I figured he was higher. Also surprised Zach Johnson was the highest ranked player.
 
biggsy said:
I'm actually surprised Garcia is that low, I figured he was higher. Also surprised Zach Johnson was the highest ranked player.
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I was surprised that ZJ was so high also. I know he won last year but you still don't hear his name mentioned much on Sundays.
 
great read.. donald wins and fowler is my dark horse!!
 
Ok, I read the entire article and this entire thread as well, and I didn't see the name of one guy that I think has a pretty good shot this week: Matt Kuchar. He's a Georgia guy, and pretty consistent tee-to-green. The way this course is playing, it almost sounds more like a US Open than this year's US Open at Congressional was, there will be a premium on driving it in the fairway because it will be hard to stop the balls on the greens out of the rough as fast as the greens will run.
 
and yet he's won almost $3m this year.....sneaky consistent

GolferGal said:
I was surprised that ZJ was so high also. I know he won last year but you still don't hear his name mentioned much on Sundays.
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biggsy said:
I'm actually surprised Garcia is that low, I figured he was higher. Also surprised Zach Johnson was the highest ranked player.
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Liked him but not to win and he's not a dark horse...but I picked him in my contest entry

arydolphin said:
Ok, I read the entire article and this entire thread as well, and I didn't see the name of one guy that I think has a pretty good shot this week: Matt Kuchar. He's a Georgia guy, and pretty consistent tee-to-green. The way this course is playing, it almost sounds more like a US Open than this year's US Open at Congressional was, there will be a premium on driving it in the fairway because it will be hard to stop the balls on the greens out of the rough as fast as the greens will run.
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Hanks said:
and yet he's won almost $3m this year.....sneaky consistent
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I like ZJ. I think he's not only a good guy but a solid golfer. He is great off the tee, short, but consistent and he is lethal with that SeeMore putter. I would love to see him win, but I am just not sure I see it happening.
 
MattyKrack17 said:
great read.. donald wins and fowler is my dark horse!!
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Hard to call a guy ranked that high a dark horse.

arydolphin said:
Ok, I read the entire article and this entire thread as well, and I didn't see the name of one guy that I think has a pretty good shot this week: Matt Kuchar. He's a Georgia guy, and pretty consistent tee-to-green. The way this course is playing, it almost sounds more like a US Open than this year's US Open at Congressional was, there will be a premium on driving it in the fairway because it will be hard to stop the balls on the greens out of the rough as fast as the greens will run.
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Hanks said:
Liked him but not to win and he's not a dark horse...but I picked him in my contest entry
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Agree with Hanks.
And add to that, there is a premium on saving par putts here and it is something that Kuchar has struggled with over the last 3 months with his revolving putter bag.
 
exactly why I picked him :)

GolferGal said:
I like ZJ. I think he's not only a good guy but a solid golfer. He is great off the tee, short, but consistent and he is lethal with that SeeMore putter. I would love to see him win, but I am just not sure I see it happening.
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I think folks think the rough is going to be worse than it actually is. There was a great article in Golf Digest about this golf course and the makeover it's been through. Yes, it's going to be playing fast, real fast, but the Super said that he has it set up so that balls should be sitting up a bit more in the rough. That's why I'm not so certain that driving accuracy is such a big deal. I think this tourny comes down to putting.
 
TC said:
I think folks think the rough is going to be worse than it actually is. There was a great article in Golf Digest about this golf course and the makeover it's been through. Yes, it's going to be playing fast, real fast, but the Super said that he has it set up so that balls should be sitting up a bit more in the rough. That's why I'm not so certain that driving accuracy is such a big deal. I think this tourny comes down to putting.
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This is from your predictions in the article.

I think we see Tiger struggle again, this course can be incredible punishing being that wayward off the tee.
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JB said:
This is from your predictions in the article.
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There's a difference being in the 1st cut or 2nd cut or in the trees.
 
I was watching some of the player interviews yesterday on TGC and they were putting a premium on finding the fairway and indicating that getting into that rough was going to cause some trouble. Also saw some references to it playing tougher than the US Open did this year.
 
But he is still winless thats why he is my dark horse, if i had to pick someone ranked lower i would agree with DLIII
 
TC said:
There's a difference being in the 1st cut or 2nd cut or in the trees.
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No kidding ask puttin4tricks what it's like playing from two fairways over
 
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