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I would think tee shot. Nothing worse than not getting off the tee and assessing a penalty stroke. Yes, your approach shot needs to be on the green to score well, but getting into trouble off the tee wont leave you a clear shot to any green.
Well, I think the only correct answer here is the approach shot. I can only assume that a "good approach shot" is one which finds the green.
A good approach can save an awful drive, but the opposite cannot be said. At the end of the day being on the green in the correct amount of shots for a GIR is all that matters.
This is an interesting question. It used to always be the tee shot for me. I thought, if I hit a great drive then that will boost my confidence and give me a better chance at good shots for the entire hole. But then I thought about the short game being the 'great equalizer' and now that has me thinking the approach shot is more important.
There's a little bit of a "chicken v. egg" discussion here.
I think most would say the approach is more important, because it gives you a better chance at scoring if you hit a good approach shot. But, the approach shot is usually set up by the drive. A drive in the fairway gives you a better chance at a good approach. A drive out of bounds or into a hazard generally leads to a bad score.
If I'm being asked which shot is more important for scoring, I'll say the approach shot. But, if I'm being asked to choose one over the other, I'll choose the tee shot. If I hit great tee shots and a lot of poor approach shots, I still think that I end up with a better score than great approach shots and poor tee shots.
To use your chicken/egg analogy, I think I would have to go with the tee shot. It is hard to hit a solid approach shot if you are in the trees or a pond, etc.
I agree with this Army. You see quite often guys win tournaments who have high GIR's or proximity to the hole, but driving appears to be less important for the majority of tournaments.