Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

[Sean]

Did a bit of chipping and pitching today. Beautiful day here for golf.

 

[ntanygd760]

I don't get comparing it to the flu thing. The flu doesn't overwhelm hospitals and tie up ventilators 3 to 4 times longer then typical respiratory viruses. The actual % death rate doesn't seem massively important. It will be massively inflated once we run out of hospital beds, who cares the true rate.

 

[ntanygd760]

People coming into Massachusetts now have to self-quarantine for 14 days. I don't know how they will enforce it, but I wonder if other states will follow suit.

I think Hawaii is as well. It is pretty easy for them to though as 99%+ fly in.

 

[tahoebum]

I don't get comparing it to the flu thing. The flu doesn't overwhelm hospitals and tie up ventilators 3 to 4 times longer then typical respiratory viruses. The actual % death rate doesn't seem massively important. It will be massively inflated once we run out of hospital beds, who cares the true rate.

So far the hospitals in NYC have ICU beds and ventilators available and lets hope that that remains the case. Many experts in the medical field think that the peak death rate in places like NYC are two weeks away and not until May for some other places. I’m thankful I’m in an area that has plenty of ICU beds available and there are still only two deaths in MN and both of those were in their 70’s with preexisting conditions. Another article I saw had the average age of death in Italy at 79.5 and 99.2% had preexisting medical problems.

 

[mpeterson]

I don't get comparing it to the flu thing. The flu doesn't overwhelm hospitals and tie up ventilators 3 to 4 times longer then typical respiratory viruses. The actual % death rate doesn't seem massively important. It will be massively inflated once we run out of hospital beds, who cares the true rate.

I made a similar point earlier - death statistics get a lot of the discussion, but hospitalization and severe illness rates are perhaps more important. Especially since they are fairly high, even for younger, healthy people relative to the flu.

As once we end up past capacity, once-effective treatments for this and other diseases may not be so effective which has an overall effect.

 

[aljaklaw]

Canadian Gov't will subsidize up to 75% of small business wages

Service Canada locations shut down, all EI/etc claims to be done over the phone or online

Unemployment around 8% up from 4-5%, forecast to reach 15%

BC: worst case scenario modelled, hospital capacity unlikely to be overrun

 

[Duffer Waldorf]

Jackson County, MS, has hired its four constables to also be "social-distancing monitors" along the beaches of Pascagoula and Ocean Springs.

DHS has pushed the REAL ID enforcement deadline back one year, to Oct 1, 2021.

 

[aljaklaw]

When's the last time you saw traffic like this?

 

[skujan]

Next door in NJ three young men shooting hoops!

 

[tequila4kapp]

An existing supply of 39 Millions N95 masks was found with a distributor

Union Locates 39 Million N95 Masks for Healthcare Workers, Local Governments

Service Employees International Union United Healthcare Workers West announced Thursday that it located 39 million N95 masks and will make them available to state and local governments and health care systems that are fighting the novel coronavirus outbreak. The union found a distributor with...

www.nbcbayarea.com

 

[PuffChippy]

Again, influenza also is potentially asymptomatic in a large portion of cases, which would drop the influenza mortality rate. You can't calculate the asymptomatic fraction of one disease, not do it for the other, and then say the numbers are comparable.

It’s true most flu cases are asymptomatic, but the way we classify deaths means most flu deaths aren’t counted as such. The CDC themselves estimate true flu related fatalities at 10-15 times the official number which depending on which facts you choose to believe put it roughly on par with COVID. This is very much not the case with COVID-19 especially when you have countries like Italy that count any death of a person who tested positive for COVID as a COVID death (according to themselves). That’s one of the reasons their death counts and mortality rate was so much larger then others. Data is only as good as your method but it’s safe to say that flu deaths are extremely underreported and COVID deaths (in some cases) are over reported. Taking all sources globally into account, including all the variations in reporting and testing and so forth, the data seems to suggest that the numbers for flu vs COVID will end up very similar.

 

[JB]

After approval, I expected a small rally this afternoon, but went in the other direction, which is mostly computer based in my opinion, but I am hopeful that means a strong Tuesday (Monday might be tough again).

Up over 10% for the week has me believing there is still some demand.

 

[PuffChippy]

I made a similar point earlier - death statistics get a lot of the discussion, but hospitalization and severe illness rates are perhaps more important. Especially since they are fairly high, even for younger, healthy people relative to the flu.

As once we end up past capacity, once-effective treatments for this and other diseases may not be so effective which has an overall effect.

That’s the real difference right there. The data says flu and COVID are quite similar, but the data doesn’t take into account the rate of hospitalization which may be the real data point we should be focusing on, not cases or mortality.

 

[th6252]

If we knew or saw the unsanitary conditions that our food is prepared in at many food establishments the restaurant business would me a much smaller part of the economy. A lot of us would eat at home all the time, lol.

No doubt I’m sure. I have a friend who was an executive chef and my wife’s brother used to work at Taco Bell and Chick-fil-A.
I was relieved to see how clean my friend made sure the kitchen was, and didn’t tolerate any nasty practices with food. Also, my wife’s brother had a lot of good things to say about cfa...Taco Bell not so much.

 

[GolferGal]

People coming into Massachusetts now have to self-quarantine for 14 days. I don't know how they will enforce it, but I wonder if other states will follow suit.

They are doing that here in Florida. Specifically people from the Tri-state area. From what I read (and this is going off memory so this could wrong) they are being met by National Guard and have to provide all their information including where they will be self isolating.

 

[Reframmellator]

If you love sausage and respect the law, don't ever watch either one being made.

 

[Sean]

They are doing that here in Florida. Specifically people from the Tri-state area. From what I read (and this is going off memory so this could wrong) they are being met by National Guard and have to provide all their information including where they will be self isolating.

I just received a text from the state...it didn't say how it would be implemented. I imagine all those snow birds returning to MA from FL won't be happy about this new order. I'm all for it. We have to bite the bullet on this thing so it doesn't drag out well into the summer.

 

[JDax]

One thing I'd be careful about declaring "victory" in that regard there is to not forget that those places have a "head start" in terms of outbreak. Maybe "we" as a country aren't going to see what Italy is seeing, but there is a chance that places within the country absolutely do.

Take a look at this chart, that compares NYC with a number of places, including Spanish and Italian cities at the same times in the outbreak.

There are no winners here... I think that data never supported the nation wide Italy comparison, and that has proven to be true.

I think that the pragmatic approach is to have a red, yellow, green approach related to areas of the country and their readiness to go back to work.

 

[JDax]

After approval, I expected a small rally this afternoon, but went in the other direction, which is mostly computer based in my opinion, but I am hopeful that means a strong Tuesday (Monday might be tough again).

Up over 10% for the week has me believing there is still some demand.

Didn’t really get that short covering up tick that we got last Friday...

 

[arydolphin]

A bit late on this due to dinner/bath/bedtime for my son.

Today's Massachusetts numbers:
Total cases: 2417 (+579)
Total tests: 23621 (+3827)
Hospitalizations: 219
Deaths: 25

Not fun to see positive test percentage increase, hospitalizations double, and death rate go up as well.

Of note, this is the age distribution of positive cases:
≤19 years of age: 53
20-29 years of age: 425
30-39 years of age: 433
40-49 years of age: 386
50-59 years of age: 437
60-69 years of age: 329
≥ 70 years of age: 352
Unknown: 2

Massachusetts numbers for 3/27/2020:
Total cases: 3240 (+823)
Total tests: 29371 (+5750)
Hospitalizations: 288 (+69)
Deaths: 35 (+10)

 

[myspinonit]

Canadian Gov't will subsidize up to 75% of small business wages

Service Canada locations shut down, all EI/etc claims to be done over the phone or online

Unemployment around 8% up from 4-5%, forecast to reach 15%

BC: worst case scenario modelled, hospital capacity unlikely to be overrun

Some additional info: Also the Feds will provide $40000 no interest loans to those small/medium businesses with $10000 forgiven if repaid in a year. The market here still dove here after the news too.

The Chief Medical Officer was mildly optimistic and said with adhering to social distancing we may be starting to flatten the curve and trending more like South Korea than Italy. She said B.C. is now at 130 cases per million people, and without the restrictions, the province would likely be at 215 cases per million. The attached graph was provided in her report.

Keep the social distancing going folks!

 

[mpeterson]

There are no winners here... I think that data never supported the nation wide Italy comparison, and that has proven to be true.

I think that the pragmatic approach is to have a red, yellow, green approach related to areas of the country and their readiness to go back to work.

It's not like every single town in Italy is having the same issue, either. NYC is already worse than many Italian regions. We're likely to see the same thing from some of these cities that are further back on the curve. You keep talking about "data" but it doesn't bear out your conclusion.

Yes, there are low density places that have less to worry about. But the modeling doesn't really support easing of non-pharmaceutical interventions in a phased manner as a feasible solution. it can be done, but folks are going to have to be willing to submit to a lot more restrictions on movement, as well as monitoring. That's the South Korean model, which seems to have worked reasonably well.

 

[JDax]

It's not like every single town in Italy is having the same issue, either. NYC is already worse than many Italian regions. We're likely to see the same thing from some of these cities that are further back on the curve. You keep talking about "data" but it doesn't bear out your conclusion.

Yes, there are low density places that have less to worry about. But the modeling doesn't really support easing of non-pharmaceutical interventions in a phased manner as a feasible solution. it can be done, but folks are going to have to be willing to submit to a lot more restrictions on movement, as well as monitoring. That's the South Korean model, which seems to have worked reasonably well.

Ok bro...
Has the mortality rate seemed to settle nationwide between 0.7% and 1.4%?

Did I not say that Lombardi area of Italy has demographic factors that caused it’s mortality rate to skyrocket.

Like anything else there are a variety of factors that lead to hot spots, but is that enough for entire country to commit economic suicide?

You’re a big lock it down guy, what happens on the second wave when we have no herd immunity, because of the quarantines?

 

[JB]

it can be done, but folks are going to have to be willing to submit to a lot more restrictions on movement, as well as monitoring. That's the South Korean model, which seems to have worked reasonably well.

Do you think in many of these less dense areas, that have not been impacted as much, that more restrictions need to be in place?
Especially with warmer weather areas?

 

[myspinonit]

^^^ I meant to also post here this morning that the Provincial Government under the Direction of the Chief Provincial Health Office announced yesterday they have imposed State of Emergency control of the whole Province though the City of Vancouver still has its authority as allowed under it's Charter. Part of that is having central control of essential supply chains through the Province. Another is imposing fines up to $25,000 and jail time up to a year for breaching measures. Local bylaw officers through the Province can now assist the Province in investigating non-compliance to Provincial orders.