Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

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it bothers me that the term 'media' is even slightly associated between what we do, and what BS they are pulling.

Fear mongering, slanderous, agenda pushing %^&*&^&*&^&&%%^*%*&^%*&^%*&^%& idiots that they are.
Limit yourself to 30 minutes.

Sounds as if you are OD'ing on news.

Back away from the TV or watch TGC, NetFlix, etc.

I find my best days are when I don't turn on TV until after 6 pm
 
Fauci throwing around some big numbers on the CNN this morning. 100-200k deaths in the US. With the trajectory many regions are on and the lack of precautions many state governments and individuals are taking, it doesn’t sound unreasonable.

Question for the group...how do you guys deal with friends that don’t comply with the local requests? I’ve got a friend who’s business was deemed essential because they are “maritime” and do repairs, but my buddy sells ski boats. He’s been out on the lake twice this past week doing demos ie. taking potential customers out on the lake. Not much chance to distance on a 20 ft boat. His response, “gotta make a living”. But then gets mad at his wife when she suggests ordering take out.
It's so tough. For everyone. My wife is an essential employee (works for a major railroad), and I own a small business. Her work is moving her right now in the middle of this crap, and I can't just willingly bankrupt us. So we're traveling and moving right now for her, which is a NIGHTMARE, and my work puts me in direct contact with people or in their homes. I see judgmental looks from some (strangers, friends, whoever), and I know plenty of people have opinions about some of it. I'd never want to put her or anyone else at risk, but the minimum for us right now is probably higher than for most. That's an opinion. Mine. Everyone is entitled to their own. Even about my opinion. I know people who are doing things I don't deem necessary right now, but I'm not them. I surely don't know what they're dealing with, personally. So I just try to remind myself that I'm doing the best I can. They probably are too. That ultimately I can't control others, and whether it be in thinking, conversation, or proximity, the only thing I can remove from a situation I don't like is me.
 
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It's so tough. For everyone. My wife is an essential employee (works for a major railroad), and I own a small business. Her work is moving her right now in the middle of this crap, and I can't just willingly bankrupt us. So we're traveling and moving right now for her, which is a NIGHTMARE, and my work puts me in direct contact with people or in their homes. I see judgmental looks from some (strangers, friends, whoever), and I know plenty of people have opinions about some of it. I'd never want to put her or anyone else at risk, but the minimum for us right now is probably higher than for most. That's an opinion. Mine. Everyone is entitled to their own. Even about my opinion. I know people who are doing things I don't deem necessary right now, but I'm not them. I surely don't know what they're dealing with, personally. So I just try to remind myself that I'm doing the best I can. They probably are too. That ultimately I can't control others, and whether it be in theory, conversation, or proximity, the only thing I can remove from a situation I don't like is me.

That is a fantastic way of looking at things. I’m disappointed in my friend from a public health standpoint and his own mother is in the hospital after a surprise major medical issue. I also have the privilege of working from home and my wife and I have minimal impact on our income (other than being a financial advisor and that getting dinged). People gotta keep their families afloat and just hope those decisions don’t prolong and exacerbate the health impact to our country. But deep down, I know they will.

My BIL and SIL just traveled from the Bay Area to Idaho to buy a house. His work is moving him beginning of May. They went from shelter in place to next door to the worst per capita infection rate county in the country and back in two days. And people wonder how this spreads.

**Soap box dismount**
 
Rhode Island joins the chorus of states restricting travel. Cuomo basically throws a fit, not unlike yesterday when he spoke out against the trial balloon travel quarantine floated by Trump. What is Cuomo thinking, how could anyone be against restricting travel out of NY?
 
Rhode Island joins the chorus of states restricting travel. Cuomo basically throws a fit, not unlike yesterday when he spoke out against the trial balloon travel quarantine floated by Trump. What is Cuomo thinking, how could anyone be against restricting travel out of NY?

I agree with the sentiment, but this has to be some sort of coordinated effort. And to be honest, it's probably best for _everyone_ to stay local right now. Not just the folks in NYC. This article from Harvard Business Review has a good argument as to why regional lockdowns don't work: https://hbr.org/2020/03/lessons-from-italys-response-to-coronavirus

It's also really interesting to look at the county-level numbers coming out of NY. Cases in the city are slowing down, while cases out on Long Island, where folks with vacation homes went to "escape" are increasing at a quicker rate.
 
It's also really interesting to look at the county-level numbers coming out of NY. Cases in the city are slowing down, while cases out on Long Island, where folks with vacation homes went to "escape" are increasing at a quicker rate.

Wouldn’t that make the perfect case for limiting travel out of the city?
 
Wouldn’t that make the perfect case for limiting travel out of the city?

The problem is you can't do it immediately, and there's an exodus. That's what happened in Italy. The article touches on this a bit:

Avoid partial solutions. A second lesson that can be drawn from the Italian experience is the importance of systematic approaches and the perils of partial solutions. The Italian government dealt with the Covid-19 pandemic by issuing a series of decrees that gradually increased restrictions within lockdown areas (“red zones”), which were then expanded until they ultimately applied to the entire country.


In normal times, this approach would probably be considered prudent and perhaps even wise. In this situation, it backfired for two reasons. First, it was inconsistent with the rapid exponential spread of the virus. The “facts on the ground” at any point in time were simply not predictive of what the situation would be just a few days later. As a result, Italy followed the spread of the virus rather than prevented it. Second, the selective approach might have inadvertently facilitated the spread of the virus. Consider the decision to initially lock down some regions but not others. When the decree announcing the closing of northern Italy became public, it touched off a massive exodus to southern Italy, undoubtedly spreading the virus to regions where it had not been present.
 
It's also really interesting to look at the county-level numbers coming out of NY. Cases in the city are slowing down, while cases out on Long Island, where folks with vacation homes went to "escape" are increasing at a quicker rate.
Anectdotally it looks like NYC numbers could be going down at least in part because a percentage of their sick population are leaving for Long Island, Florida and Rhode Island (and numbers in those areas is going up).
 
Anectdotally it looks like NYC numbers could be going down at least in part because a percentage of their sick population are leaving for Long Island, Florida and Rhode Island (and numbers in those areas is going up).

I've got a good amount of friends in the city, and they've said people there are, largely, doing a good job staying put. So I'm guessing the distancing is playing a role there too. We're about two weeks into that, which is when we should expect to start seeing the effect, based on Italy/Spain/China.
 
Limit yourself to 30 minutes.

Sounds as if you are OD'ing on news.

Back away from the TV or watch TGC, NetFlix, etc.

I find my best days are when I don't turn on TV until after 6 pm
I read it but mostly with a grain of salt. Even if I am not reading the mainstream media sources, I know what their agenda is and it infuriates me regardless of whether I digest it all.

We’re in the midst of a pandemic and no matter where you go, the conversation is a “he said she said” partisan **** show that only works to divide our Nation. Not helping, not accomplishing much of anything really.
 

Forecasting of COVID-19 infections over the next four months.

1585503103025.png

1585503159045.png

Florida doesn't ecape from the nightmare any time soon.

Also from the manuscript:
We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.
 
That is a fantastic way of looking at things. I’m disappointed in my friend from a public health standpoint and his own mother is in the hospital after a surprise major medical issue. I also have the privilege of working from home and my wife and I have minimal impact on our income (other than being a financial advisor and that getting dinged). People gotta keep their families afloat and just hope those decisions don’t prolong and exacerbate the health impact to our country. But deep down, I know they will.

My BIL and SIL just traveled from the Bay Area to Idaho to buy a house. His work is moving him beginning of May. They went from shelter in place to next door to the worst per capita infection rate county in the country and back in two days. And people wonder how this spreads.

**Soap box dismount**
That's basically where we're at right now, so in a way I feel for your in-laws. We have almost no problems at home. Here in Little Rock is way different. They have a growing problem, and honestly, their attitude and response to things makes me think it's going to get waaay worse here. But we got in Friday night, have 2 days to figure out temporary housing, so she starts work Tuesday, and I drive back home tomorrow. She was given 6 days notice on the job/move, I have two open jobs to finish at home, and some things to get our house listed, so we're scrambling. I feel like I'm doing something terrible by going from home to here and back home (and I'll have to do it a minimum of twice), but we have to get her set up to work and live immediately, and I couldn't shutter my business and home in less than a week. I don't want to do any of this, in this way, but choices are limited. And I'm one of the chilliest people most would know, normally. I can roll with any situation. I take the fact that someone's life may be determined by my choices seriously though, and honestly, the stress of trying to do this in the most responsible and safe way right now might effing kill me. It is really, really hard.
 
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Limit yourself to 30 minutes.

Sounds as if you are OD'ing on news.

Back away from the TV or watch TGC, NetFlix, etc.

I find my best days are when I don't turn on TV until after 6 pm
Agreed. Still informed but not in a crazed manner.
 

Forecasting of COVID-19 infections over the next four months.

View attachment 8934259

View attachment 8934260

Florida doesn't ecape from the nightmare any time soon.

Also from the manuscript:
We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.
Bummer. I thought Oregon would be on the downswing sooner than this projection shows. We had 26% fewer cases yesterday than the day before and the last models I’d read about had 4/11 as our peak day.
 
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They've removed the mandatory closure of golf course here in Myrtle Beach for locals only. You have to present an ID to play. All hotels are closed as of noon today. Exceptions are if you were here by March 1st, first responder or if you would otherwise be homeless. North Carolina has issued a shelter in place order.
 
This looks promising.


 
This is affecting so many friends and family locally. I'm grateful for my family's health and the warm weather but I hope we can get past this Covid19 crap soon!!
 
Is there any facts as yet that the hot weather is a help or not in spreading the C19? I have not seen or heard anything either way.
 
Is there any facts as yet that the hot weather is a help or not in spreading the C19? I have not seen or heard anything either way.
I’ve read that there is evidence that temperature and humidity matter but I’m not sure it’s been proven to a scientific certainty.
 
I was in a wedding in FL in April that’s been postponed. Was able to cancel the tux, rental, and hotel. Today my wife’s departing flight was cancelled and our return flight was cancelled so I was able to get a full refund on those rather than an airline credit 👍 silver linings...
 
I’ve read that there is evidence that temperature and humidity matter but I’m not sure it’s been proven to a scientific certainty.
I have a friend in Bogota that said they are fighting it hard there, it is cool 70's / 40's and rains most every day of the year a bit and the cases are rising fast. They are on lock down and no idea when it will be lifted with enforcement by the police and military.

It is Flu season there year round basically.
 
I’d love to see a nationwide program that starts fining people for things like this.

with all proceeds going to the relief efforts on medical supplies etc.

I am really surprised people are traveling for vacations during this time. At the best of times airplanes are Petri dishes. It's this kind of irresponsible behavior that will simply prolong this pandemic.
 
I am really surprised people are traveling for vacations during this time. At the best of times airplanes are Petri dishes. It's this kind of irresponsible behavior that will simply prolong this pandemic.

Many of the flights and airports are so dead that it’s easy to maintain personal space. Subways and grocery stores put you likely at the same or higher risk and way more people are using those right now. Only a few flight attendants or pilots have come down with Covid 19 so far. My brother in law is still flying about 60% of his normal hours and he doesn’t know any flight attendants or pilots that have tested positive.
 
Many of the flights and airports are so dead that it’s easy to maintain personal space. Subways and grocery stores put you likely at the same or higher risk and way more people are using those right now. Only a few flight attendants or pilots have come down with Covid 19 so far. My brother in law is still flying about 60% of his normal hours and he doesn’t know any flight attendants or pilots that have tested positive.

It's not just the flying...it is either helping to spread the illness, or bringing it back home.
 
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