We've launched the new forums! Read more here

Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

Status
Not open for further replies.
J.B. Cobb III said:
Coronavirus is bad for Country Music!

www.cnn.com

Country music star Joe Diffie dies of complications from coronavirus

Joe Diffie, a country music singer known for his lighthearted odes to country life that reached mainstream success in the 1990s, died Sunday from complications of coronavirus, his publicist said in a news release.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
Click to expand...
John Prine is in ICU right now as well. It doesn’t look to good for him at the moment either. He is 73 with health issues. Great artist.
 
1793ABF5-0F33-4487-B6EA-5799B460371D.jpeg
 
Someone said to me today.
”Everything was fine and then Tom Brady left the Patriots”.
 
tahoebum said:
I sold N95 and other respirators and safety equipment for over 20 years working in the field for 3M and had some used ones in my old sample bags that I washed and am wearing as needed. The 140 new ones that I found 2 weeks ago when we went to our lake home I donated to the local hospital and they were very appreciative. I’ve performed many hundreds of fit tests for tens of thousands of auto refinish and paint technicians over my career and yes, I’ve been fit tested. I have the fit test kit still with 35 hoods and plenty of solution so all my family has been recently fit tested.
Click to expand...
🎤 ⬇️
 
TheHammer0711 said:
I just saw this as well. Cant imagine, at least, another 30 days at home
Click to expand...
I start WFH tomorrow and my wife has been home for a week already. Can’t possibly imagine both of us WFH for 30 days.
 
tahoebum said:
I sold N95 and other respirators and safety equipment for over 20 years working in the field for 3M and had some used ones in my old sample bags that I washed and am wearing as needed. The 140 new ones that I found 2 weeks ago when we went to our lake home I donated to the local hospital and they were very appreciative. I’ve performed many hundreds of fit tests for tens of thousands of auto refinish and paint technicians over my career and yes, I’ve been fit tested. I have the fit test kit still with 35 hoods and plenty of solution so all my family has been recently fit tested.
Click to expand...

I always hated doing fit tests. You tasted saccharine all day.
 
JDax said:
Can someone explain the wide deviation in the opinion of Dr. Fauci?

Article by Dr. Fauci 3 days ago:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

Also Dr. Fauci on CNN today, estimating 100,000 to 200,000 deaths then says, "but don't hold me to that?".


Dr. Fauci's 200,000 death estimate, using his own projected .1% CFR, means 200,000,000 Americans infected, or 63% of our entire population.

Right now, Italy is the hottest of hot zones and only .15% of their population has been infected.

Something doesn’t add up... Right?
Click to expand...

When I "get into the office" tomorrow I'll hopefully have a pointer to whatever study this comes from in my inbox, or at least a more-scientific-than-news summary. I'm guessing this factors in overwhelming resources and an increase in fatality rate based on some other models I've seen. But to be clear - I'm 100% spitballing here.

It also may be assuming a more chronic/seasonal disease akin to flu. Again, complete conjecture on my part. Like any model, I'm sure the math is good, but the assumptions are important. What holds today might not hold tomorrow, which he alluded to with that last statement.
 
Last edited:
JDax said:
Can someone explain the wide deviation in the opinion of Dr. Fauci?

Article by Dr. Fauci 3 days ago:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

Also Dr. Fauci on CNN today, estimating 100,000 to 200,000 deaths then says, "but don't hold me to that?".


Dr. Fauci's 200,000 death estimate, using his own projected .1% CFR, means 200,000,000 Americans infected, or 63% of our entire population.

Right now, Italy is the hottest of hot zones and only .15% of their population has been infected.

Something doesn’t add up... Right?
Click to expand...

I say, let the results of more testing come in, and the experts can offer better predictions - good data, better predictions.

I think it would be better if we wanted to shorten the limitations - to go national shelter in place except for essential businesses for 3 weeks. Reason being that individual states are not allowing people in from other states and it is getting confusing ...
 
Interesting comparison between this pandemic vs H1N1 that we saw in 2009:

EUUcMfzWsAAZ5xj.jpeg
 
Had some interesting chats with the neighbors today (each about 12 feet away from each other haha)

TWo of them said they were sent something saying that during the time China went through the meat of this Rona ordeal, 21 million people stopped using their cell phones. That's either a crazy weird coincidence (assuming true), or mega cover-up, right?!
 
Canadan said:
Had some interesting chats with the neighbors today (each about 12 feet away from each other haha)

TWo of them said they were sent something saying that during the time China went through the meat of this Rona ordeal, 21 million people stopped using their cell phones. That's either a crazy weird coincidence (assuming true), or mega cover-up, right?!
Click to expand...

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-c...gest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html

I saw an article on what you are referring to linked above...
 
Canadan said:
Had some interesting chats with the neighbors today (each about 12 feet away from each other haha)

TWo of them said they were sent something saying that during the time China went through the meat of this Rona ordeal, 21 million people stopped using their cell phones. That's either a crazy weird coincidence (assuming true), or mega cover-up, right?!
Click to expand...
Maybe their 5G failed or just controlling what could be shared.
 
Canadan said:
Had some interesting chats with the neighbors today (each about 12 feet away from each other haha)

TWo of them said they were sent something saying that during the time China went through the meat of this Rona ordeal, 21 million people stopped using their cell phones. That's either a crazy weird coincidence (assuming true), or mega cover-up, right?!
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Danimal said:
John Prine is in ICU right now as well. It doesn’t look to good for him at the moment either. He is 73 with health issues. Great artist.
Click to expand...

Interrupting this great C19 discussion for a little music interlude from John Prine. Best wishes to him for a full recovery! If you don't know John Prine, then here's a good intro. The lyrics are awesome.

 
I may have some of the first encouraging news, since Coronavirus hit the U.S.

I live in Santa Clara county, which besides the flair up in Washington at that nursing home is one of the first flare ups identified and one of the first to implement restrictions to movement and interactions. They started shutting things down 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow will be 2 full weeks of shelter in place. Experts in infectious diseases have been telling us that these measures are an attempt to flatten out the curve of confirmed cases. I've been watching the county figures for new confirmed cases day-by-day. We hit a peak of 84 and 83 new cases Wednesday and Thursday of last week. The last 3 days have been significantly off that peak. Now I think we'd all like to see a few more days of data before saying for sure, but maybe, just maybe we've seen the peak of new cases in this county and have evidence that shelter in place and social distancing's effectiveness. I'll post an update later this week.

I realize most of us live elsewhere, but if 2-3 weeks of shelter in place and social distancing proves effective to turn around a hot spot here we can all be encouraged.
 
Canadan said:
Had some interesting chats with the neighbors today (each about 12 feet away from each other haha)

TWo of them said they were sent something saying that during the time China went through the meat of this Rona ordeal, 21 million people stopped using their cell phones. That's either a crazy weird coincidence (assuming true), or mega cover-up, right?!
Click to expand...
Reckless speculation: China uses cell phone data and cell phones in general to track the movement of people and integrate their three color, red yellow and green system. If you are green, you can leave the house and work. If you are yellow or red, you have to stay in. Many use WeChat to pay, a payment and social media app. That is one way China is tracking its population. Want to go off the grid? No phone and face mask so no facial recognition. Then you become a bit of a ghost.
 
I looked at the COVID tracking data today, and the last two days are interesting. The project started to log hospitalizations about a week ago, so I started to focus on hospitalizations and deaths. For now, these are the two things that will not be affected by things such as test kit availability or approach to testing. I don't claim it's the perfect thing to track, but I think it will at least tell us about the spread of the bad cases.

So I took the data from March 21-27 and used the Excel trendline function to fit exponential curves. The red numbers for yesterday and today are the trendline predictions. The black numbers are the actuals. The -14.1% means Sunday's hospitalizations were 14.1% less than predicted by the Mar 21-27 trendline. It's too early to call it a slowing, but that's two consecutive days under the old curve. The absolute numbers are still large, but I will be very interested in Monday's numbers. Will the trend continue?

EDIT: The trendline's predictions for Mar 30 are 31,439 hospitalizations and 3,622 deaths.

COVID TRACKING 200329.png
 
Last edited:
Reframmellator said:
I looked at the COVID tracking data today, and the last two days are interesting. The project started to log hospitalizations about a week ago, so I started to focus on hospitalizations and deaths. For now, these are the two things that will not be affected by things such as test kit availability or approach to testing. I don't claim it's the perfect thing to track, but I think it will at least tell us about the spread of the bad cases.

So I took the data from March 21-27 and used the Excel trendline function to fit exponential curves. The red numbers for yesterday and today are the trendline predictions. The black numbers are the actuals. The -14.1% means Sunday's hospitalizations were 14.1% less than predicted by the Mar 21-27 trendline. It's too early to call it a slowing, but that's two consecutive days under the old curve. The absolute numbers are still large, but I will be very interested in Monday's numbers. Will the trend continue?

View attachment 8934365
Click to expand...
I hope that the trend continues and we are past the worst of it but that's contrary to what a lot of the "experts" are saying
 
Reframmellator said:
I looked at the COVID tracking data today, and the last two days are interesting. The project started to log hospitalizations about a week ago, so I started to focus on hospitalizations and deaths. For now, these are the two things that will not be affected by things such as test kit availability or approach to testing. I don't claim it's the perfect thing to track, but I think it will at least tell us about the spread of the bad cases.

So I took the data from March 21-27 and used the Excel trendline function to fit exponential curves. The red numbers for yesterday and today are the trendline predictions. The black numbers are the actuals. The -14.1% means Sunday's hospitalizations were 14.1% less than predicted by the Mar 21-27 trendline. It's too early to call it a slowing, but that's two consecutive days under the old curve. The absolute numbers are still large, but I will be very interested in Monday's numbers. Will the trend continue?

EDIT: The trendline's predictions for Mar 30 are 31,439 hospitalizations and 3,622 deaths.

View attachment 8934365
Click to expand...

Most of the places that implemented distancing measures did it a couple weeks ago so we are at the point where we should start seeing effects based on the European and Chinese numbers. Like you said, numbers are still big, but the trend is promising.
 
Last edited:
I thought this was hilarious, sorry if it's already been shared.

 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top