Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

[GolferGal]

I skimmed this article but I was happy to see people are starting to take this seriously. But you have to love the AP, they always have to find a way to throw some politics into it.

AP-NORC poll: Americans increasing effort to avoid infection | AP News

CHICAGO (AP) — Americans in overwhelming numbers are actively avoiding others as much as possible and taking additional steps to protect themselves from the coronavirus, according to a survey from <a href="http://www...

apnews.com

 

[tahoebum]

The estimated total deaths from the most popular model dropped from 93k yesterday to 81k today. The estimates for my home state of MN dropped from 935 deaths yesterday to 625 today. I’m thinking the curve will be even flatter for MN as the actual deaths per day have been steady at between 1 and 5 for the last 6 days. We might be seeing signs that this could turn out better than a lot of the experts and models have been predicting. NY also so a reduction in deaths yesterday and NYC had half the number of hospitalizations on Sunday compared to Saturday.

 

[tahoebum]

I was under the impression the forgiveness and payroll is only for 10 weeks and its not a guarantee it is forgiven as you have to apply for forgiveness.
And its still unknown (to me) if there is an officer carve out on this as well.

I’m not sure but that was the information he conveyed to me. His payroll is about $100k per month which includes him and his partner and from what he understands his loan will likely be forgiven other than interest.

 

[JB]

I’m not sure but that was the information he conveyed to me. His payroll is about $100k per month which includes him and his partner and from what he understands his loan will likely be forgiven other than interest.

Interesting. Yeah I think most micro businesses have looked into this extensively. Make sure he knows that you have to apply for the forgiveness. Its not a "I just don't pay it back" scenario.

Right now its not black and white if there is an officer carve out on the payroll section, as its not stated clearly, but as most banks are getting setup right now, they will begin application and approval shortly.

 

[Danimal]

I was under the impression the forgiveness and payroll is only for 10 weeks and its not a guarantee it is forgiven as you have to apply for forgiveness.
And its still unknown (to me) if there is an officer carve out on this as well.

It is only provided for ten weeks and is forgiven if the business strictly adheres to the guidelines (they seem to be a little bit of a moving target). Also it only covers up To a certain amount for higher paid employees/principals. There are a few gotcha’s in there that could be problematic for a lot of us but we will see how it transpires.

 

[tequila4kapp]

I truly hope the lower projections you cite pan out, but caution might be advised for several reasons:

1. The epidemiological models I've been able to find and read about on line are based on assumptions of preemptive and mitigation measures that may or may not be applied or maintained. It is hard to factor in the uncertainties evident in the current climate where there is no centralized (federal) management of such measures in the USA. It is still pretty much the Wild West in terms of policies and practices.

2. Models use data. Beware of garbage in - garbage out. The reporting of confirmed cases and deaths by the various states and local governments in the USA is probably better than much of the data coming in from around the world. (There are a lot of questions to be raised about the reporting and data from other parts of the world. Some of it just doesn't make sense.) There is likely to be some garbage involved in the data here in the USA. At this point, it's just a question of how much and how quickly it can be weeded out.

3. Testing in the USA has been an abysmal failure so far. Contact tracing, and sustained follow up beyond initial tracing, isn't any better in most states. For that matter, with a few exceptions like Germany and New Zealand, testing and derivative measures like contact tracing in other parts of the world hasn't been very good either. That has a direct bearing on the problem of garbage in - garbage out when modeling. Even the experts don't have a clear idea what they are dealing with, as admitted by Dr. Fauci. I think the word he used is "struggling". We used to call this situation WBG - we be guessin'. Not a pretty thought when you consider the situation we're in. Like I noted previously, you can't manage what you can't measure.

4. What data is being widely reported (e.g., the John Hopkins U. reporting), appears to be based solely on "confirmed" infections and deaths. It is reported by various sources. That may inject another wildcard into the modeling, the reliability of those sources. We don't know what quality control is being applied to the data sources. It also ignores the 800 lb gorilla in the room: there doesn't seem to be anything credible regarding the extent of unconfirmed cases. Given that some unknown portion of those persons infected are asymptomatic (and therefore aren't getting tested), but are capable of passing on the virus to others without knowing it, you have a hidden component of the overall infection rate. That will likely sustain the spread of the virus to some unknown degree. That is totally speculative, but could potentially increase the peak and lengthen the curve. It basically blinds the modeling, i.e., unless someone has figured out what the unconfirmed incidence of infections is with some reliability, the model has a blind spot. That hidden portion of the total extent of infection is coupled with the testing debacle, and won't get resolved until testing can be statistically reconciled to account for both confirmed and unconfirmed infections. That can only be done by testing in numerous geographical regions, not one or two. You wouldn't want to model based only on Wyoming or only on New York City. Trying to apply tailored modeling to all of the states individually (or to local areas) without statistical accounting of the "unconfirmed" incidence of infection is a big ask. Maybe that uncertainty is fully reflected in the broad ranges shown in the modeling. Maybe not.

5. Treatment via a new vaccine or use of other drugs is uncertain and very speculative in terms of timing and effectiveness. Any reliable and properly validated vaccine is probably not just over the horizon, which is why none of the models I've seen account for it in any way. I suppose we can hope for a miracle, though that would seem to be intruding on the space already preempted by the federal government.

IMO, this has been a total cluster up to this point and seems likely to continue for a while. All we can really do is be kind to each other and hang on. And at least do what Drs. Fauci and Birx suggest.

I'm not sure it is still fair to characterize US testing efforts as abysmal. We are currently at @4k tests per million. We are testing @120K people per day, which is about triple the next major country. When expressed on a per million bases our daily test rate is 2nd to Italy and more than S. Korea. I agree that we clearly started very poorly and we don't appear to be doing contact tracking, but we have substantially rebounded from then.

Re quality of the data, you are correct that there are real inconsistencies. However, the quality issues are reasonable constant, meaning there's likely a degree of confidence that can be taken when looking at long term trends, even though the data is not pristine.

 

[tequila4kapp]

I went to the course for my regular weekday tee time with the same two other guys I've played with for years. A single shows up and the course wanted to pair him up with us. I declined and when they pushed I said then I could not play. I am in a high risk group other than just because of my age. With my two regulars I know, if, when and where they have traveled, how they are about social distancing, the precautions they take and I know and trust them enough to know if they had the slightest symptoms they would not be there. I know zilch about a stranger. Am I wrong to push back on having a stranger play along with us?

Absolutely not wrong of you. In my state, while courses are still open, they refuse to pair strangers in the same playing group. You made the right decision.

 

[JB]

It is only provided for ten weeks and is forgiven if the business strictly adheres to the guidelines (they seem to be a little bit of a moving target). Also it only covers up To a certain amount for higher paid employees/principals. There are a few gotcha’s in there that could be problematic for a lot of us but we will see how it transpires.

That is what I thought. I know Marcus Lemonis has done a slew of live streams on this and yesterday did one and said all businesses must apply for the forgiveness (interest built in) rather than the assumption it is just forgotten.

 

[JDax]

I have seen a lot of hubbub surrounding this creating a shortage for Lupus patients. Now, I don't know much about Lupus. So, I have a question since I don't quite understand. If your wife was unable to get this medication for a month or more, what side effects would she have? Is it life threatening? Or, more of a comfort issue? Not trying to say anything one way or another. Just trying to understand more why some people are pissed that this is being used for Covid-19 as it makes it harder for Lupus patients to get it.

She doesn’t have to take it all the time, her Rheumatologists will have her take it if she gets joint swelling, her skin breaks out, or if she gets bronchitis.
It’s not a drug to treat Lupus itself, it treats other issues that Lupus can create.

In my wife’s case it wouldn’t be life threatening if she wasn’t taking it, because it’s an “as needed” drug. I’m more concerned about her having to skip her Benlysta infusion during this outbreak.

I hope that helps.

 

[tequila4kapp]

The estimated total deaths from the most popular model dropped from 93k yesterday to 81k today. The estimates for my home state of MN dropped from 935 deaths yesterday to 625 today. I’m thinking the curve will be even flatter for MN as the actual deaths per day have been steady at between 1 and 5 for the last 6 days. We might be seeing signs that this could turn out better than a lot of the experts and models have been predicting. NY also so a reduction in deaths yesterday and NYC had half the number of hospitalizations on Sunday compared to Saturday.



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The worldometer site reports only 8 confirmed deaths today so far. Obviously there could be lag in terms of sources reporting deaths, etc. But anectdotally that is a very low number for 9am EST as compared to the past several days.

 

[JDax]

She doesn’t have to take it all the time, her Rheumatologists will have her take it if she gets joint swelling, her skin breaks out, or if she gets bronchitis.
It’s not a drug to treat Lupus itself, it treats other issues that Lupus can create.

In my wife’s case it wouldn’t be life threatening if she wasn’t taking it, because it’s an “as needed” drug. I’m more concerned about her having to skip her Benlysta infusion during this outbreak.

I hope that helps.

I also forgot to mention that my Wife’s Rheumatologist put her back on Hydroxychloroquine (it used to be called Plaquenil), two weeks ago as a preventative measure for this Covid-19 outbreak.

 

[radiman]

She doesn’t have to take it all the time, her Rheumatologists will have her take it if she gets joint swelling, her skin breaks out, or if she gets bronchitis.
It’s not a drug to treat Lupus itself, it treats other issues that Lupus can create.

In my wife’s case it wouldn’t be life threatening if she wasn’t taking it, because it’s an “as needed” drug. I’m more concerned about her having to skip her Benlysta infusion during this outbreak.

I hope that helps.

Thanks! I just wasn't sure. And to reiterate, not trying to make light of it in any way. Hard to gauge things these days when you see people getting worked up on one side or the other on social media.

 

[tahoebum]

But, what about all the businesses that don’t have lots of employees? Family run businesses? Or businesses that are 1099 like contractors and such?

My buddy who has a small family-owned bar/restaurant with 4 employees seemed pleased with his relief package as well but I'm not sure of the details.

My buddy mentioned in the earlier post with 11 or 12 employees started the business 3 years ago with just him and his partner as employees and they took zero pay for the first 7 months. He said their company definitely would not have survived had this virus hit in 2017 or early 2018.

 

[BigDill]

The estimated total deaths from the most popular model dropped from 93k yesterday to 81k today. The estimates for my home state of MN dropped from 935 deaths yesterday to 625 today. I’m thinking the curve will be even flatter for MN as the actual deaths per day have been steady at between 1 and 5 for the last 6 days. We might be seeing signs that this could turn out better than a lot of the experts and models have been predicting. NY also so a reduction in deaths yesterday and NYC had half the number of hospitalizations on Sunday compared to Saturday.



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And Florida’s “peak date” moved up by about two weeks while overall numbers went down. I think that is a great sign.

 

[JDax]

Thanks! I just wasn't sure. And to reiterate, not trying to make light of it in any way. Hard to gauge things these days when you see people getting worked up on one side or the other on social media.

No worries... I’m not a Doctor, but many that are in an uproar about this drug aren’t Doctors either.

@JB made a point yesterday about the polarization of the country. I’m wondering if this Hydroxychloroquine debate is another case of polarization, rather than facts.

I’m just sharing my personal knowledge of the drug, because we knew about it before it became a thing.

 

[radiman]

No worries... I’m not a Doctor, but many that are in an uproar about this drug aren’t Doctors either.

@JB made a point yesterday about the polarization of the country. I’m wondering if this Hydroxychloroquine debate is another case of polarization, rather than facts.

I’m just sharing my personal knowledge of the drug, because we knew about it before it became a thing.

just another tool in the growing political divide. My understanding is that the shortage isn't putting the Lupus sufferers at risk of anything other than discomfort? While, it could potentially be used as the only real weapon we have against a new virus. I don't know. I have seen some doctors come out and say that they've seen results with it. Others say they haven't. I guess if the risk is minimal, why not try it.

In any event. I have noticed a trend here lately. People in our area seem to be doing a pretty good job minus the one or two people you see ignoring the precautions. Starting to see people out with masks. So far, the only deaths in our area have been a nursing home resident. At least last I heard, there was just the one.

I am concerned with the growing economic damage. MN governor is now publicly "concerned" that ND and other neighboring states (IA and SD) haven't issued a lock down. I feel like they have been doing a pretty good job of mitigating the spread and keeping their economy going as much as they can. They seem committed to striking a balance vs plunging their workforce into economic despair.

 

[rollin]

The media may not tell you this, but if you use a little common sense to interpret the factual data you will find something positive. According to John Hopkins University data, the daily percentage of increase for new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is trending down. This means we will soon reach the peak (when it gets to 0%) and that is when the curve becomes fla

problem with the data (as with any this data) is that any downward turn in new cases might only be in relation to less testing in recent past.
Some authorities and professionals are fighting for much more testing and yet many health professionals including testing sites on the contrary do not want people to test unless they are sick with much more than mild symptoms because they are overwhelmed.

and as mentioned in this thread by myself as well as others (even of very recent posts) is what about the population that has the virus but doesnt even know it because they have no or very ,mild symptoms yet they cary? Just how many those people exist? We will never know how many thousands of them there are. So we can place that on top of the fact that many folks even who are mildly ill wont be tested and therefore any downward trend in new cases imo may not at all have any real reflection of new cases in actuality.
the only thing i would trust at this point is if we see a dramatic drop in the more seriously ill to the degree of hospitalized patients. That to me will be the only sign that this thing is beginning to go down. But thats only assuming more seriously ill people are not being turned away from hospitals as the beds fill. You see as the beds fill, the more serious one then needs to be in order to get one. The whole thing is a giant mess honestly. But still the only real sign would be much less seriously sick people and many less deaths.

But as someone mentioned it is very possible we see waves of this. See it going better but then worse,etc... especially as we might begin to lax our distancing in light of any positive wave. That in itself can be a catch-22.

 

[golfunfiltered]

The model is definitely trending down, including data I'm seeing on my end. This could be the result of many variables, many of which have been described in this thread, but it's a glimmer of hope.

As more of the country begins to warm up, we will see how things truly go. Illinois is forecasted to be in the upper-60s throughout the week. My neighbors had 12 people over their house yesterday. This is a critical, critical point in the entire effort.

 

[Desmond]

just another tool in the growing political divide. My understanding is that the shortage isn't putting the Lupus sufferers at risk of anything other than discomfort? While, it could potentially be used as the only real weapon we have against a new virus. I don't know. I have seen some doctors come out and say that they've seen results with it. Others say they haven't. I guess if the risk is minimal, why not try it.

In any event. I have noticed a trend here lately. People in our area seem to be doing a pretty good job minus the one or two people you see ignoring the precautions. Starting to see people out with masks. So far, the only deaths in our area have been a nursing home resident. At least last I heard, there was just the one.

I am concerned with the growing economic damage. MN governor is now publicly "concerned" that ND and other neighboring states (IA and SD) haven't issued a lock down. I feel like they have been doing a pretty good job of mitigating the spread and keeping their economy going as much as they can. They seem committed to striking a balance vs plunging their workforce into economic despair.

I was talking with one of my clients who owns several service businesses which are essential - he just said, "Let's lockdown the entire country for 3 weeks and be done wiith it. Just do it and let's get back to work.

I think people moving across borders just enhances the spread. I think we've wasted a whole lot of time being wishy-washy while more are dying.

 

[gmiller598]

No worries... I’m not a Doctor, but many that are in an uproar about this drug aren’t Doctors either.

@JB made a point yesterday about the polarization of the country. I’m wondering if this Hydroxychloroquine debate is another case of polarization, rather than facts.

I’m just sharing my personal knowledge of the drug, because we knew about it before it became a thing.

As my understanding is that people are starting to think they can take it proactively out of fear and without knowledge of potential side effects. If someone is critical and it is necessary to try to help them then I believe doctors are trying it to see if it helps but I don't believe there is enough knowledge for people to believe that this is a miracle treatment and I don't believe there is any documentation supporting that this is a preventative treatment. Within a day or 2 of the president simply mentioning it, Ohio had to place restrictions on filling prescriptions because of people trying to panic buy it. People not taking it under controlled medical supervision might actually be doing more damage to themselves than good if they don't actually have it.

 

[rollin]

The model is definitely trending down, including data I'm seeing on my end. This could be the result of many variables, many of which have been described in this thread, but it's a glimmer of hope.

As more of the country begins to warm up, we will see how things truly go. Illinois is forecasted to be in the upper-60s throughout the week. My neighbors had 12 people over their house yesterday. This is a critical, critical point in the entire effort.

The way Ive always understood things (and i could be wrong) but is that the reason we tend get sick more in winter is not because its cold but is because more people spend much more time indoors trying to keep warm and are passing germs to each other in public indoor places and also bringing them home. where we also spend more time inside than outside. But in warm months we venture outdoors much more and pass less germs to each other. That is why traditionally (as for how i know it to be) winter becomes flu and cold months and not as much in summer. Just where does Covid19 fit into that? I really dont know.

 

[JB]

The way Ive always understood things (and i could be wrong) but is that the reason we tend get sick more in winter is not because its cold but is because more people spend much more time indoors trying to keep warm and are passing germs to each other in public indoor places and also bringing them home. where we also spend more time inside than outside. But in warm months we venture outdoors much more and pass less germs to each other. That is why traditionally (as for how i know it to be) winter becomes flu and cold months and not as much in summer. Just where does Covid19 fit into that? I really dont know.

Actually no.
There are a number of viruses that do not get along with heat.
That isn't to say this one does or doesn't, but just the idea of the virus lives because we are indoors more is false.
Sort of anyway. Its because viruses don't suspend in air as long in humid conditions.

 

[radiman]

As my understanding is that people are starting to think they can take it proactively out of fear and without knowledge of potential side effects. If someone is critical and it is necessary to try to help them then I believe doctors are trying it to see if it helps but I don't believe there is enough knowledge for people to believe that this is a miracle treatment and I don't believe there is any documentation supporting that this is a preventative treatment. Within a day or 2 of the president simply mentioning it, Ohio had to place restrictions on filling prescriptions because of people trying to panic buy it. People not taking it under controlled medical supervision might actually be doing more damage to themselves than good if they don't actually have it.

But it isn't an over the counter drug. They still need to have a doctor prescribe it for them. That is the confusing part to me. I see mention that people are rushing out and depleting the stock. But, the only way for them to be able to do that is to go to a doctor first and have them find a reasonable reason for them to take it right?

 

[Duffer Waldorf]

But, the only way for them to be able to do that is to go to a doctor first and have them find a reasonable reason for them to take it right?

There, or the pet store.

 

[tahoebum]

I was talking with one of my clients who owns several service businesses which are essential - he just said, "Let's lockdown the entire country for 3 weeks and be done wiith it. Just do it and let's get back to work.

I think people moving across borders just enhances the spread. I think we've wasted a whole lot of time being wishy-washy while more are dying.

The problem with ordering a lockdown is a certain percentage of the public won’t obey the orders no matter what. My daughter still has to college roommates in San Diego that are socializing with friends four or five days each week by going to parties at other friends apartments. Much of the human to human contact in Minnesota is at grocery stores and other essential businesses like gas stations that are open. Most of these people could be getting groceries delivered and not ever having to go to the store. We are able to get deliveries for all of our needs in a remote rural area in northern Minnesota with only 12 people per square mile so most of the population has no needs to go to stores but many still are. There are also a lot of people exercising outside around the lakes in Minneapolis, many thousands each day which means they are often inside that 6 foot personal space barrier.

Even if we could shut down completely for three weeks this virus can easily come back. They had to close all the movie theaters in China last week for a second time.