Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

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Of actual Ohio impact, my doc is not only seeing people in person but they are taking sick patients as well as suspected Covid cases. Everyone has to wear a mask.
 
Nice! Rats are a great choice because of their association with witchcraft and the plague. I was thinking you play up the aggressive stray dogs angle, or maybe bears in parks used to eating human trash who could (could!) wander into town and start eating babies, but rats are the superior choice especially since we've already done bats.
 

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I simply cannot take it any longer. I’m driving my son and I about 20 miles to the next county over tomorrow so we can get haircuts.
 
As a friend, I’d ask you try to avoid anyone saying that this is selfish behavior. Being worried about the economic health of all others is far from that. Imho it’s about striking a balance. What Bolsonaro is promoting could also be seen as gambling with people. That’s sad as well.
The questions being asked are realy tough with lots of variables and too few facts, particularly early on
Read his post again he wasn't saying people are selfish he was saying "Some people say those who want to go back to work are selfish"

Having just returned to work from 3 weeks off with covid people need to start returning to work if possible.

If your a healthy 20,30 or 40 and even 50 it's time. If you have health issues stay home. Pretty simple
 
I simply cannot take it any longer. I’m driving my son and I about 20 miles to the next county over tomorrow so we can get haircuts.

The tricounty still shut down?
 
Having just returned to work from 3 weeks off with covid people need to start returning to work if possible.

Billy - Glad to hear you are well after your bout with Covid ....take care.
 
Interesting here locally a news channel is reporting our county is now the ranked the number 10 hot spot in the nation. Yet the state coronavirus tracker says our new cases are going down.... sort of anyway. We’re only at 1070 cases out of something like 300,000 residents.

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2.1 million more workers seed aid, raising the total layoffs since virus struck to over 40 million. YIKES!
 
2.1 million more workers seed aid, raising the total layoffs since virus struck to over 40 million. YIKES!

It would be interesting to see an analysis of how businesses were affected directly by the virus vs indirectly as a cause of the restrictive SIP measures.

Restaurants are opening back up, curious how they fare now vs before the pandemic. Industries like tourism and travel were going to get hit hard directly because of the pandemic. Retail was crushed by the lockdown; they probably would have been hurt by the virus itself but shelter in place orders were just killers for them.

Wonder if there’s a way to differentiate the economic effects between the disease itself and the measures taken to contain it.
 
Wonder if there’s a way to differentiate the economic effects between the disease itself and the measures taken to contain it.

Aren't those one and the same? How would someone differentiate those when we had forced business closure?
 
I simply cannot take it any longer. I’m driving my son and I about 20 miles to the next county over tomorrow so we can get haircuts.

FINALLY I can get a haircut. Called and made an appointment the other day for this coming Friday. I never thought I would be so psyched to get a haircut, lol.
 
Read his post again he wasn't saying people are selfish he was saying "Some people say those who want to go back to work are selfish"

Having just returned to work from 3 weeks off with covid people need to start returning to work if possible.

If your a healthy 20,30 or 40 and even 50 it's time. If you have health issues stay home. Pretty simple
I read it right. Just my post may have been poorly worded.
 
Aren't those one and the same? How would someone differentiate those when we had forced business closure?
I don’t think they are. There are effects from forcing a business to close, and effects from people changing their habits due to their own precautions toward the disease and not forced restrictions.

Some people will be reticent to travel, or stay at a hotel. To take a cruise, etc. otoh forcing a business to close and removing that choice has an impact all to itself.
 
Example- Restaurants here are open again, but most people are either ordering take out or cooking. There is a drop off due to the disease now, not just due to the forced closure.
 
I don’t think they are. There are effects from forcing a business to close, and effects from people changing their habits due to their own precautions toward the disease and not forced restrictions.

Some people will be reticent to travel, or stay at a hotel. To take a cruise, etc. otoh forcing a business to close and removing that choice has an impact all to itself.

I strongly disagree. Changing their habits is due to the forced nature of what was done. People didn't all of the sudden decide they wanted to do this.

People might get take out now, but that is all part of the same COVID 101 handbook. FWIW, if you wanted to say they were separate, the idea of habits changing would be less than 1% in my opinion on spending vs what has been forced upon.
 
I strongly disagree. Changing their habits is due to the forced nature of what was done. People didn't all of the sudden decide they wanted to do this.

People might get take out now, but that is all part of the same COVID 101 handbook. FWIW, if you wanted to say they were separate, the idea of habits changing would be less than 1% in my opinion on spending vs what has been forced upon.
I think it’s greater, which is why I’d like to see an analysis.

Right now travel is allowed, most places are opening back up. I think there will be a lasting effect. For me, personally, that has more to do with precautionary measures. I don’t envision a rush to get on cruise ships. And I’m not saying I’m right here. It’s fine to disagree and discuss or else this wouldn’t be a discussion forum.

But it’s something I’d like to see a further analysis on.
 
I think it’s greater, which is why I’d like to see an analysis.

Right now travel is allowed, most places are opening back up. I think there will be a lasting effect. For me, personally, that has more to do with precautionary measures. I don’t envision a rush to get on cruise ships. And I’m not saying I’m right here. It’s fine to disagree and discuss or else this wouldn’t be a discussion forum.

But it’s something I’d like to see a further analysis on.

I will use an example. One of the largest OEMs in golf is down nearly 50% in sales year over year. How would habits changing play a role in that?
Or would you say forced closure of stores, courses, ranges and work (meaning less money) caused that damage?

Here is another one. One of the largest apparel manufacturers in North America (not golf) laid off nearly everybody and is hanging on by a thread to stay in business. They own and manufacturer for 17 brands sold in department stores and specialty shops. Would you say that is habit as nobody necessarily needs new clothes when they have no place to go? Or would you say forced closures to both their business and others killed any chance at success and 1100 people lost their jobs?

I know restaurants get a lot of conversation because it is the easiest example as everybody eats, but while there is no doubt for some habits will change, demand is lost, etc. The forced closure of our country is what caused a huge chunk in unemployment.

And I agree it's okay to debate and disagree. :)
 
I will use an example. One of the largest OEMs in golf is down nearly 50% in sales year over year. How would habits changing play a role in that?
Or would you say forced closure of stores, courses, ranges and work (meaning less money) caused that damage?

Here is another one. One of the largest apparel manufacturers in North America (not golf) laid off nearly everybody and is hanging on by a thread to stay in business. They own and manufacturer for 17 brands sold in department stores and specialty shops. Would you say that is habit as nobody necessarily needs new clothes when they have no place to go? Or would you say forced closures to both their business and others killed any chance at success and 1100 people lost their jobs?

I know restaurants get a lot of conversation because it is the easiest example as everybody eats, but while there is no doubt for some habits will change, demand is lost, etc. The forced closure of our country is what caused a huge chunk in unemployment.
Do you know how much OEM companies have tied up in fixed costs? I’m curious if they are able to maintain any sort of margin percentage by cutting costs to match the loss in revenue.
 
Do you know how much OEM companies have tied up in fixed costs? I’m curious if they are able to maintain any sort of margin percentage by cutting costs to match the loss in revenue.

I don't think it would be fair for me to put margin points into a public forum. While I won't keep others from doing so, having it shared with me directly, I would have a hard time sharing.
 
Events are one of the great things on THP. You get a chance to golf with other members, test equipment, and meet awesome people from an OEM. I sent an email a couple of weeks ago to an OEM employee I met at an event. Just wanted to say hi and offer best wishes to him and his family. I received his out of office message and don't think he's back in the office yet. I really can't imagine the toll this is taking on his family and career. Most of us hope "normal" returns soon. However, I'm concerned normal is much smaller than it was a few months ago.
 
Here's a great BLOG from economist Brian Wesbury titled; Miscalculating Risk: Confusing Scary With Dangerous. It's very good and accurately captures some of the dialog in this thread.

A couple of pull quotes if you don't want to read the article.

The coronavirus kills, everyone knows it. But this isn't the first deadly virus the world has seen, so what happened? Why did we react the way we did? One answer is that this is the first social media pandemic. News and narratives travel in real-time right into our hands.

This spreads fear in a way we have never experienced. Drastic and historically unprecedented lockdowns of the economy happened and seemed to be accepted with little question.


***

Hospitals and doctors' offices have had to be much more selective in the people they are seeing, leaving beds open for COVID-19 patients and cutting out elective surgeries. According to Komodo, in the weeks following the first shelter-in-place orders, cervical cancer screenings were down 68%, cholesterol panels were down 67%, and the blood sugar tests to detect diabetes were off 65% nationally.

It doesn't stop there. The U.N. estimates that infant mortality rates could rise by hundreds of thousands in 2020 because of the global recession and diverted health care resources. Add in opioid addiction, alcoholism, domestic violence and other detrimental reactions from job loss and despair. It's tragic.


***

A shutdown may slow the spread of a virus, but it can't stop it. A vaccine may cure us. But in the meantime, we have entered a new era, one in which fear trumps danger and near-term risk creates long-term problems. It appears many people have come to this realization as the data builds. Hopefully, this will go down in history as a mistake that we will never repeat.
 
The tricounty still shut down?
Clackamas (furthest from me) is open, Washington (my county open 6/1), Multnomah (where Portland is located) is still closed and has no announced plans to reopen.
 
I will use an example. One of the largest OEMs in golf is down nearly 50% in sales year over year. How would habits changing play a role in that?
Or would you say forced closure of stores, courses, ranges and work (meaning less money) caused that damage?

Here is another one. One of the largest apparel manufacturers in North America (not golf) laid off nearly everybody and is hanging on by a thread to stay in business. They own and manufacturer for 17 brands sold in department stores and specialty shops. Would you say that is habit as nobody necessarily needs new clothes when they have no place to go? Or would you say forced closures to both their business and others killed any chance at success and 1100 people lost their jobs?

I know restaurants get a lot of conversation because it is the easiest example as everybody eats, but while there is no doubt for some habits will change, demand is lost, etc. The forced closure of our country is what caused a huge chunk in unemployment.

And I agree it's okay to debate and disagree. :)

yeah, it’s like I referenced in my original post, some industries were absolutely smashed by the lockdown. Others possibly hit worse by the virus itself and the fear it caused. I have no idea how those % bear out in terms of economic factors. I don’t think it’s 99-1, but would be curious to see facts on it.
 
Clackamas (furthest from me) is open, Washington (my county open 6/1), Multnomah (where Portland is located) is still closed and has no announced plans to reopen.
I grew up in Washington County. Not surprised the Multnomah is shut down with no plans to reopen.
 
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