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How bad does it get? (Covid-19)

Jman said:
Italy will be the better study to watch, and its tilting towards 7-8%
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Italy appears to be an outlier. Very old population, many travelers from China during the Wuhan outbreak. Mostly older men are obese and smoke heavily.
 
JDax said:
Italy appears to be an outlier. Very old population, many travelers from China during the Wuhan outbreak. Mostly older men are obese and smoke heavily.
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Its however providing accurate info as far as the treatment and spread goes, and also exactly what we need to NOT do in order to prevent our infrastructure from becoming overwhelmed. Its a **** show in Italy.
 
JDax said:
Italy appears to be an outlier. Very old population, many travelers from China during the Wuhan outbreak. Mostly older men are obese and smoke heavily.
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what did you just say that doesn't describe a huge portion of america though? Every issue Italy faced, with the health of their citizens and the lack of proper infrastructure, is the exact problem we have but we have it at an even greater scale.
 
Ha ha Anthony is a "crazy prepper"

Me sitting on 3 months worth of supplies and food, watching the idiocy
 
WMac19 said:
I'm hoping beyond hope that my theory is correct that the spread of the virus is already far greater than assumed.

China has known about this since December and lost control of it in January. All the while, people were coming and going within the country and to and from abroad. Travel on planes, cruise liners, etc.

Yet somehow, the 1st case in the US was only weeks ago? I personally cannot conceive of that.

This is an illness that the WHO reports 80% of all infected would have zero to mild symptoms. And those symptoms would mimic the common cold. It's also a disease that can spread anywhere from 5 to 10 times faster than the flu. Even with ease and availability of flu shots (not always perfect, I know), there can be upwards of 10-15% of the public with the flu at any given time.

I simply cannot conceive that the spread has not already been underway and in massive volume. My hope is that many, many people have already had it, unbeknownst to them, and recovered. Sucks from the standpoint of missing containment measures but nobody with a minor cold would have sought assistance.

It's my hope because if true then the mortality rate would be much lower. But an argument against that is the devastation the disease caused in one facility for the elderly in Washington. Incredible devastation that shows the clear peril for those in that age and individual health group.

It cannot be contained just like the flu nor the cold can. Imagine those being deadly diseases? Good luck corralling them. Can only be slowed, IMHO. Still, hoping I'm right for the sake of the survival rate and the prospects of the vast majority beating this.
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To be fair, Influenza killed 34,200 (61,000+ the year prior) people last year in the US alone. Numbers are yet to be seen for the current season. It's pretty deadly.

edit* in times like these, I feel it's important to cite sources.

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
 

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The more I think about it, the more I think we are going to see a much worse economic impact in the end. It could be arguably more severe then the health impact depending on how you look at it. Think about it. Schools are now closing. What are those parents that can not work from home but now have no one to watch their children doing to do? Spending will decrease in all areas but necessities. The more the economy goes down the more panic. On top of that, it is an election year and the closer we get to the fall that is going to have an impact on the economy as well. If it has not recovered from this completely by then, it could get really bad.
 
cbaker2882 said:
what did you just say that doesn't describe a huge portion of america though? Every issue Italy faced, with the health of their citizens and the lack of proper infrastructure, is the exact problem we have but we have it at an even greater scale.
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Well our borders aren’t as open as Italy’s.
People don’t traditionally greet other in the same manner in the US as they do in Italy.
Italy’s healthcare infrastructure isn’t as sturdy ours...

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Also our Smoking Rate & Pollution Levels are way lower than Italy’s...

Remove the 26 deaths from one nursing home and there have been only 15 deaths in America attributed to COVID-19. I just don’t think that Italy is a close comparison to the US.
 
JDax said:
Well our borders aren’t as open as Italy’s.
People don’t traditionally greet other in the same manner in the US as they do in Italy.
Italy’s healthcare infrastructure isn’t as sturdy ours...

View attachment 8931579
Also our Smoking Rate & Pollution Levels are way lower than Italy’s...

Remove the 26 deaths from one nursing home and there have been only 15 deaths in America attributed to COVID-19. I just don’t think that Italy is a close comparison to the US.
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Eh, I think our obesity rate more than makes up for it, which is one of the higher risk groups.
 
4 cases reported positive here in West Chester ohio

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 
Yeah I don't believe in psychics :unsure:
 
A friend of mine is a food scientist and has contacts in many parts of the world and he says Israel is closest to vaccine and 2 weeks away from announcing but many other countries testing as well. Understanding that vaccines still need to produced but thinking if something positive came about a vaccine it would slow down the panic being see in some areas.
 
i went to the grocery store yesterday on my way home from work and it was packed like i have never seen it before. there was still bread and milk but i am guessing if i went in the store right now it wold all be gone. the TP shelves were empty....lol....people need their brand of TP
 
JDax said:
Well our borders aren’t as open as Italy’s.
People don’t traditionally greet other in the same manner in the US as they do in Italy.
Italy’s healthcare infrastructure isn’t as sturdy ours...

View attachment 8931579
Also our Smoking Rate & Pollution Levels are way lower than Italy’s...

Remove the 26 deaths from one nursing home and there have been only 15 deaths in America attributed to COVID-19. I just don’t think that Italy is a close comparison to the US.
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In this case, shaking hands and hugging will have the same consequences as cheek kissing.
 
TheHammer0711 said:
i went to the grocery store yesterday on my way home from work and it was packed like i have never seen it before. there was still bread and milk but i am guessing if i went in the store right now it wold all be gone. the TP shelves were empty....lol....people need their brand of TP
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People are literally selling TP on EBay for $2 a square. Not a roll, one perforated square! WTF people.
 
TheHammer0711 said:
stuff is crazy

would, if you ran out, use magazines or buy $2 a sheet TP? lol
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Do people not own wash clothes or something that could be re-washed and used in a pinch????

I'm seriously confused by this....
 
Jman said:
Precisely my point. Its why all the head in the sand takes that we are overreacting are funny to me. We have to overreact in order to protect the infrastructure, by tier-ing off the infection rates, the system can still respond. Allow it to go unchecked, and the system collapses.

Too many are hung up on this not having the mortality rates of swine flu and the rest, that isn't the point, this is a whole different level of infection that IS going to happen.
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Where I live, there is a huge chance of our health system being overwhelmed. It was for recent hurricanes and earthquakes, and would be for highly infectious diseases. I can see why some people say that there is a lot of fear-mongering going on, but what is happening in Italy is a reality, not a piece of a fiction. That could easily happen here in Puerto Rico with the access we have to tourism via cruise ships and the airport. It stinks that my government's response has been to stick its head in the sand and complain about the CDC.

I fear for my mom who suffers auto-immune conditions and doesn't have proper pulmonary function. This could be risky for places with compromised health systems. It doesn't all have to be about politics.
 
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