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How bad does it get? (Covid-19)

Sean said:
Last year 18,000 people died of the flu and 350,000 people were hospitalized. In 2013 almost 60,000 died of the flu and yet we managed to get buy without any hysteria.
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IMHO, I dont think it is quite appropriate yet to make parallels to the flu. One particular point is that testing is waaaay behind, so we probably dont know the true mortality rate of Covid-19, but even if it is say 2%ish, that is still significantly more dangerous than the flu (0.1%). Italy is trending to a near 7% mortality right now.
This should be taken seriously. Certainly not saying people should panic, but they should be concerned, informed and follow the WHO and CDC guidelines. And respect any quarantines they may be hit with. I have a 74yr old father with underlying health concerns, so he is my personal major concern. People have to think not just of themselves, but of the fragile population (e.g. oncology patients, immunocompromised etc.) out there.
 
All the stores here are out of TP so I just bought a lot of Imodium AD instead.
 
Mach2 said:
120 flu deaths today, 39 carona virus deaths to date. Yeah, let's panic about carona virus and forget the flu.
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That’s missing the entire point of all this.

The flu has a bigger MR but it also impacts far less people because there are steps in place to combat it as best we can. This is new. No steps. Much unknown. And the guarantee it’ll impact millions and not thousands.

No one is saying ignore the flu, but if you ignore this, our entire infrastructure WILL be overwhelmed and we will end up looking like Italy is right now.
 
Stryker said:
People are literally selling TP on EBay for $2 a square. Not a roll, one perforated square! WTF people.
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Not a square to spare!

 
I dont think we really know yet just how bad it could or would get. Anyone who thinks this will be over soon is kidding themself because we arent anywhere near a vaccine and even if it dies down a bit during the summer months, its just going to flare back in the fall and winter. Supposedly, they expect to have a vaccine ready by the spring of '21 but who really knows if they will or not.
When I was at the grocery store this week, I saw plenty of people freaking out and buying up all the bottled water, toilet paper and canned goods they could and I kind of laughed because it was so ridicules. Yes, coronavirus is bad and yes we all need to be careful but its not really a huge deal in terms of a breakdown in society as of yet. The basic things that makes society go are still going on and its not as if we all wont have access to food, water, electricity, etc.
If things get really bad, I have zero faith in our government to be able to handle it. I feel like in many ways they have been in denial about it and have felt like America is the greatest country in the world, so we will be ready and will be fine but we really werent ready at all for it and we havent contained it at all. I feel like many think that this is just another version of the flu and isnt really a big deal. Ive heard many of my coworkers say how stupid all this is and how dumb people are being but this isnt just another flu. It is a very serious thing and if we dont take it seriously, things could get very bad. All its going to take is 1 person at your work who doesnt wash their hands or doesnt stay home when they are sick and then everyone is infected.
 
This is one of the best things I heard about this amid all the cancellations/closings yesterday. You may not be in the "danger" category but if you don't take proper precautions to avoid this and get the virus, you could infect someone who is in the danger category.

I am not a paranoid person by any stretch of the imagination but we should all do our part to slow this down. I already worked from home and now my wife is working from home indefinitely.
 
I put it this way to my students.

Would you rather overreact and look back and have a chuckle, or would you rather under react and live with the consequences impacting daily life from an economic and medical standpoint for a much longer time?
 
I’d like to throw a HUGE shoutout to all the incredible, brave, selfless healthcare workers out there for protecting, supporting all of us. I can imagine how scary it must be for them to potentially risk their health and that of their own families for us. I pray they are not overwhelmed during this pandemic and the curve remains flat.
Thank you all out there!
 
Jman said:
I put it this way to my students.

Would you rather overreact and look back and have a chuckle, or would you rather under react and live with the consequences impacting daily life from an economic and medical standpoint for a much longer time?
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Yes, good post, and I think we should take this tact about other issues. Now excuse me, while I shop for my regular ration of bottled water before the masses panic more... and I take my son to a putting lesson.
 
JDax said:
One might start to believe that with all of their efforts to induce panic and crash markets over the coronavirus that the media just might actually be the enemy of the people....
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Ya think? This is there only way to win. They have lied to people for the past 4 yrs with out obtaining the results they wanted. Now they see they have incited panic, and this could possibly get them what they want. Why stop for the good of the people now, when they have been against them the last 4 yrs.


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razaar said:
The difference between the flu and coronavirus as I understand it, is there is no medical cure for corona. There s no medical means of stopping it spreading. Also the death percentage within those who contract corona is much higher than those who get the flu. The medical profession doesn't have a clue where this is heading given it is so contagious, which is really the problem.
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There's no cure for the flu, no medical means of stopping it spreading, and even the so-called vaccines for it are ineffective in many cases. I got the flu vaccine like I do every year and still got type A flu and missed a week of work.
 
WMac19 said:
I'm hoping beyond hope that my theory is correct that the spread of the virus is already far greater than assumed.

China has known about this since December and lost control of it in January. All the while, people were coming and going within the country and to and from abroad. Travel on planes, cruise liners, etc.

Yet somehow, the 1st case in the US was only weeks ago? I personally cannot conceive of that.

This is an illness that the WHO reports 80% of all infected would have zero to mild symptoms. And those symptoms would mimic the common cold. It's also a disease that can spread anywhere from 5 to 10 times faster than the flu. Even with ease and availability of flu shots (not always perfect, I know), there can be upwards of 10-15% of the public with the flu at any given time.

I simply cannot conceive that the spread has not already been underway and in massive volume. My hope is that many, many people have already had it, unbeknownst to them, and recovered. Sucks from the standpoint of missing containment measures but nobody with a minor cold would have sought assistance.

It's my hope because if true then the mortality rate would be much lower. But an argument against that is the devastation the disease caused in one facility for the elderly in Washington. Incredible devastation that shows the clear peril for those in that age and individual health group.

It cannot be contained just like the flu nor the cold can. Imagine those being deadly diseases? Good luck corralling them. Can only be slowed, IMHO. Still, hoping I'm right for the sake of the survival rate and the prospects of the vast majority beating this.
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I have thought the same...I believe the US has been passing this virus around for a while, and everyone thought it was the flu/cold.


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DNice26 said:
I’d like to throw a HUGE shoutout to all the incredible, brave, selfless healthcare workers out there for protecting, supporting all of us. I can imagine how scary it must be for them to potentially risk their health and that of their own families for us. I pray they are not overwhelmed during this pandemic and the curve remains flat.
Thank you all out there!
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Plus 1000, great post !
 
shmelton said:
Ya think? This is there only way to win. They have lied to people for the past 4 yrs with out obtaining the results they wanted. Now they see they have incited panic, and this could possibly get them what they want. Why stop for the good of the people now, when they have been against them the last 4 yrs.


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Let's see, the NYT and WAPO are #1 and #3 best newspapers in the world. They have uncovered scandals on both sides of the aisle. Now if you watch the cable news over and over and over ... don't do that. That is irresponsible. You will go out and buy more TP. Now if you want to talk about irresponsible, look at a government that consisently lies to you.

Now when the Masters says it is serious, then I take notice.
 
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Desmond said:
Let's see, the NYT and WAPO are #1 and #3 best newspapers in the world. They have uncovered scandals on both sides of the aisle. Now if you watch the cable news over and over and over ... don't do that. That is irresponsible. You will go out and buy more TP. Now if you want to talk about irresponsible, look at a government that consisently lies to you.
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Well since most people are getting their news off of Facebook, and that is mostly conspiracy theory and cable news, the panic will ensue until something more politically detrimental happens.


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You also have to take a lot of the data with a big grain of salt. You're not required to report flu cases to the CDC and influenza is almost never listed as a cause of death, it's something else like pneumonia and the like. And even the CDC says 80% of covid infections are mild or asymptomatic, meaning you don't even know you're sick. What does seem different is flu kills children and the elderly while the vast majority of covid deaths are mainly isolated to people over 70. In the end it won't matter though, because when the economy is ruined, which has a legitimate death toll all it's own, and it all turns out to be chicken little syndrome, people will still defend our current panic by saying things like 'the only reason this didn't turn into a zombie apocalypse was because we overreacted". I'm not advocating for doing nothing but there needs to be a common sense medium between that and what we're doing now.
 
Sean said:
Last year 18,000 people died of the flu and 350,000 people were hospitalized. In 2013 almost 60,000 died of the flu and yet we managed to get buy without any hysteria.
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Yes, but the flu has never put a strain on the healthcare system either. The issue with this virus isn't the high mortality rate. The issue is about 10% are severe enough to require hospitalization with a recovery time of 3-6 weeks. We could run out of capacity very quickly, which would result in a much higher death rate. It would also result in a limited capacity for the people who have heart attacks, strokes, car crash injuries, appendectomies and other standard procedures.

I think that's what is causing the hysteria. Yeah, most people will recover. But if we get to a situation where someone in your life needs to be hospitalized and there is no capacity....
 
mantan said:
Yes, but the flu has never put a strain on the healthcare system either. The issue with this virus isn't the high mortality rate. The issue is about 10% are severe enough to require hospitalization with a recovery time of 3-6 weeks. We could run out of capacity very quickly, which would result in a much higher death rate. It would also result in a limited capacity for the people who have heart attacks, strokes, car crash injuries, appendectomies and other standard procedures.

I think that's what is causing the hysteria. Yeah, most people will recover. But if we get to a situation where someone in your life needs to be hospitalized and there is no capacity....
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I beg to disagree

History of 1918 Flu Pandemic | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

History of 1918 Influenza Pandemic
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Anyways on + note Walgreens doing free delivery during this time

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Fear is a very powerful thing! I’m certain that with the right precautions, we can stop the spread of this (and I hope it will naturally fizzle out in a month or two when the weather warms).

The impact on the economy may be a longer term thing. I hope the markets stabilize soon; but the fed can’t fix this - it’s not a liquidity issue like in 08.

People will adjust to a new normal; it will just take some time
 
I was sent this by our friends in the Far East. I want to hear ANYONE in a power position in the US speak to us like this. This has nothing to do with politics. It has to do with calming the general population - we could use a little guidance.

 
I grew up in the Philippines of humble means. Panic is not in my blood, I know how to survive.
 
shmelton said:
Ya think? This is there only way to win. They have lied to people for the past 4 yrs with out obtaining the results they wanted. Now they see they have incited panic, and this could possibly get them what they want. Why stop for the good of the people now, when they have been against them the last 4 yrs.


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