We share a similar starting point. The primary difference is; who does what, when, and how. My preference is to let the free market determine who should stay and who should go instead of bureaucrats. Old media such as CNN and the networks are great examples. It wasn't all that long ago the something like 1 in 3 adults watched the evening news on CBS, ABC, or NBC. CNN created a kingdom with their 24-hours channel. In these cases, the free market consumed their product. I'm not sure if they were telling the truth or not. Lifestyles changed and people moved to other outlets for convenience, content, and trust when options emerged. It took years for this to happen. The cycle moves faster and the same thing will happen to numerous social media channels. Google and Facebook can claim they shouldn't be regulated and maybe they're right. I will be cheering from the sidelines when people freely elect to replace their services with a better product.
Google and Facebook don't qualify for first amendment protections | Heather Whitney
Google has successfully argued that its search results are analogous to a newspaper editor’s decisions about what op-eds to run. They aren’t, thoughwww.theguardian.com
Again just an example article but u get the point. There is no 1st amendment protection in the current form of social media. Curation is not protected by first amendment and content is king. If you post something and they don’t show it to anyone how is that 1st amendment protection. I give ‘shadowbanning’ on Twatter as example of this.
How bad does it get? (Covid-19)
I think all the panickers need to own it.... not slough it off on media.
Oh, sh$t... Feb 24, 2020
www.theatlantic.com
COVID-19 is already reported to have killed more than twice that number. With its potent mix of characteristics, this virus is unlike most that capture popular attention: It is deadly, but not too deadly. It makes people sick, but not in predictable, uniquely identifiable ways. Last week, 14 Americans tested positive on a cruise ship in Japan despite feeling fine—the new virus may be most dangerous because, it seems, it may sometimes cause no symptoms at all.
Read: The new coronavirus is a truly modern epidemic
The world has responded with unprecedented speed and mobilization of resources. The new virus was identified extremely quickly. Its genome was sequenced by Chinese scientists and shared around the world within weeks. The global scientific community has shared genomic and clinical data at unprecedented rates. Work on a vaccine is well under way. The Chinese government enacted dramatic containment measures, and the World Health Organization declared an emergency of international concern. All of this happened in a fraction of the time it took to even identify H5N1 in 1997. And yet the outbreak continues to spread.
The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”
You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.
COVID-19 is already reported to have killed more than twice that number. With its potent mix of characteristics, this virus is unlike most that capture popular attention: It is deadly, but not too deadly. It makes people sick, but not in predictable, uniquely identifiable ways. Last week, 14 Americans tested positive on a cruise ship in Japan despite feeling fine—the new virus may be most dangerous because, it seems, it may sometimes cause no symptoms at all.
Read: The new coronavirus is a truly modern epidemic
The world has responded with unprecedented speed and mobilization of resources. The new virus was identified extremely quickly. Its genome was sequenced by Chinese scientists and shared around the world within weeks. The global scientific community has shared genomic and clinical data at unprecedented rates. Work on a vaccine is well under way. The Chinese government enacted dramatic containment measures, and the World Health Organization declared an emergency of international concern. All of this happened in a fraction of the time it took to even identify H5N1 in 1997. And yet the outbreak continues to spread.
The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”
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My son got home from college yesterday with likely online classes for the remainder of the semester. Reports from a buddy who is a bartender is that the bars were more packed than usual as the students knew they wouldn’t be having to get up for class. Not all all surprising behavior from college kids. Luckily they all have to move out of the dorms by Friday. Minneapolis shut down all bars as of today and I’m guessing many cities will do the same.
There is some good news. The updated death rate from South Korea that has done by far the most testing per capita, is 0.6%. I also believe a lot of Koreans who had mild symptoms haven’t been tested so that would make the death rate even lower than that. About 0.8% of their population has been tested so far.
There is some good news. The updated death rate from South Korea that has done by far the most testing per capita, is 0.6%. I also believe a lot of Koreans who had mild symptoms haven’t been tested so that would make the death rate even lower than that. About 0.8% of their population has been tested so far.
I agree on all these points. Think the US and PR should have been better prepared for testing earlier, but that will pick up. The death rate right now in US is somewhere in the 2% ball park (over 4000 infected, over 70 deaths, but not all of those infected have successfully survived the virus). Hopefully that goes down. I have high hopes warmth will slow the disease.
I think as this thing progresses, the one positive is that partisan behavior around this particular situation will subside. I literally read in my TL a few weeks ago people saying that this was a media creation and we should all continue to live our lives as before. I now believe everyone is agreement that strict measures to ensure social distancing are critical to containing the disease.
Locally, with a battered health system and being a hot spot for international travel & tourism, our governor has stepped up measures more drastically than any state. Most commerce is closed, and we're not allowed any social activities of more than 10 people. Golf courses are closed island-wide, malls, etc, and a strict curfew has been imposed. I'd rather be safe atm, and I absolutely agree with the President's statements yesterday. This is bad; will be bad for the economy. If the precautions and testing are properly taken and executed the economy will rebound.
- Staff
- #256
The fatality rate will be lower than 2%...
A quarantined boat is an ideal ...natural laboratory to study a virus...
Diamond Princess stats:
3,711 people on board
705 tested positive for the coronavirus
6 died
All 6 were more than 70 years old.
Fatality rate: 0.85 percent.
I think when it’s all said and done the fatality rate will be between 0.5 and 0.7. These models using the 2-4% fatality rate are overstating the number.
Market rebounding some today
I
% hope you’re right man. In the meantime, glad everyone is taking the necessary precautions.
I think the fatality rate will be greatly influenced by case load. If the caseload does not overwhelm medical system capacity, the rates will be lower (Diamond Princess.) If the system is out of capacity, more will die because there will not be enough lifesaving care available for everyone (Italy.)
Which is why I have become less casual about this and more of an advocate of flattening the curve by reducing social interactions. The challenge with that is it prolongs the outbreak and the economic toll that exacts.
- Staff
- #260
Again Italy is an outlier due to the difference in key demographics.
This is the issue. If we end up above surge capacity, there won't be the resources to respond. In that case, people who would have otherwise have survived may not. I think that's been the message from the scientific community since this started.
The demographics may differ but what happens to the death rate when the caseload exceeds system capacity does/will not differ.
- Moderator
- #263
I'm treating it like I do a Hurricane. Don't overreact, but don't be stupid either.
That explains the run on TP
South Korea has tested by far the most per capita(450,000) and their death rate is 0.6 currently. Many more that had the Coronavirus but only had minor symptoms were likely not tested so the actual death rate would be lower.
- Staff
- #267
I won’t go through all of it again, but the demographics in Italy has caused some of the dynamics that you speak of, I understand the desire to find a suitable comparison, I just don’t think that Italy is a suitable comparison.
- Staff
- #268
Washington
....
We’re probably talking past each other. I agree the demographics contributed to the situation in Italy. So did the delayed response of the Italian government. Whatever the contributors, the effect was an overwhelmed health system. I believe that if we fail to slow the spread sufficiently here, we will end up with the same effect - more seriously ill people than we can care for.
Stocking up has been a challenge as we have been without a refrigerator for over 3 1/2 weeks now. New one is suppose to be here Thursday...I hope.
It shows how one person visiting a retirement home in Washington can effect the number of cases and how fast it can spread. By taking strong measures now, hopefully it will lessen the rate of spread.
On a other note, watching sports of any-kind is already spreading thin. NBCSN is playing re-runs of Curling tonight
- Staff
- #272
This is a very valid point...It shows how one person visiting a retirement home in Washington can effect the number of cases and how fast it can spread. By taking strong measures now, hopefully it will lessen the rate of spread.
On a other note, watching sports of any-kind is already spreading thin. NBCSN is playing re-runs of Curling tonight
56% of all US deaths have been in ONE state - WA. 29 deaths from one senior a cute care facility.
The question I’m asking now is, if Washington State is an outlier (it appears to be), is Covid-19 operating like a normal pandemic would nation wide? Does this mean that the counter measures that we are putting in place are working?
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Are you suggesting we just Nuke Washington?
I can echo what your son is saying. We're at all online for the remainder of the semester. Kids on campus are still here, as they are not sending them away. Walking on the streets near campus it unsettling how cavalier the students still are. Even some people that are still on campus for work are more causal about things than I would like. Phoenix and Tucson will shut down bars/restaurants tonight at 8pm. carry out / delivery only.
I'll be one of the essential employees that will be permitted on campus. It is yet to be determined if they are going to ramp down any non-Covid-19 research. If so then I would work from home most of the time, but need to go into take care of my equipment. (can't just turn off a super conducting magnet.)
His college is unusual as 95% of the 3,100 students live on campus so the town of 20,000 which also includes Carleton College with 2,100 students will be a ghost town starting tomorrow with all students from both colleges required to leave campus. Less than 350 students at his school will remain in town and 60% of all students are out of state. Hopefully, they will be able to come back for graduation ceremonies.