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Stock Market & Retirement Planning

There has been a lot of discussion about the recovery - will it be a "U" or a "V"? I originally was in the VB camp but the entire COVID saga is going to go on a lot longer than I thought.

Then over the weekend I heard someone suggest we will have "an internet recovery" - WWW
 
I have always been a buy and hold and not worry type of investor. But today I went mostly cash and bonds on all my accounts. Fortunately my funds had rebounded enough to be about even for the past year. One year of growth pissed away and the effects on my retirement goals is unknown now.

This summer will be ugly once the bankruptcies and further layoffs start to hit IMO. Then the foreclosures and the effects on banking from the marginal loans issued during the past good years. Not to mention the trade war which is well deserved against China. Manufacturing and associated jobs need to come back to the US but that will take some time.

Time to put your eggs in a safe place and weather the storm. Hopefully this fall will lead to a good time to get back in at a low.
 
I am such a contrarian investor... this entire year, every week I throw some dollars at the market to buy all the way down... and eventually ... all the way up.

A very different story, for another time, but in 2007-2008 I was standing on Wall Street in several emergencies sessions looking at the demise of the financial sector; this is horrific, but the plumbing of the finance sector is intact. Then, I was worried if ATMs would stop working over the weekend.... now, I'm concerned about the markets and companies and retirement plans. But the hysteria, the fear, the sheer terror of that time doesn't exist. Yes, this is going to be bad, waaaaaaay more bad than we've seen in a very long time. But I'm not worried about the liquidity in the overnight repo markets.

I don't have any insider information, but this will be at least as bad as the height of the Great Recession, if not a bit worse. My opinion only, so YMMV, but I believe anyone that thinks we will come out of this by year end, is deluding themselves and if selling that advice, committing malpractice.
 
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Dumb question, Ok, I have 400K in my 401K. I am passed 59.5 yrs. How do I cash it in? What is the tax implications?
 
milehighgolfer said:
I have always been a buy and hold and not worry type of investor. But today I went mostly cash and bonds on all my accounts. Fortunately my funds had rebounded enough to be about even for the past year. One year of growth pissed away and the effects on my retirement goals is unknown now.

This summer will be ugly once the bankruptcies and further layoffs start to hit IMO. Then the foreclosures and the effects on banking from the marginal loans issued during the past good years. Not to mention the trade war which is well deserved against China. Manufacturing and associated jobs need to come back to the US but that will take some time.

Time to put your eggs in a safe place and weather the storm. Hopefully this fall will lead to a good time to get back in at a low.
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Manufacturing will not necessarily come back to the US, it will simply shift from China elsewhere. I don’t understand people clamoring for manufacturing to return, it would decimate the incomes of many.

Things built in America are EXPENSIVE. That means your salary is worth less money because goods cost more, so you don’t really gain in the end. It’s much better to outsource your cheaper goods, and assemble it here.
 
Carolina Golfer said:
Dumb question, Ok, I have 400K in my 401K. I am passed 59.5 yrs. How do I cash it in? What is the tax implications?
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Are you needing to spend it or just wanting out of the markets? Hopefully your in safer investments at almost retirement age.
 
Bryndom said:
I am such a contrarian investor... this entire year, every week I throw some dollars at the market to buy all the way down... and eventually ... all the way up.

A very different story, for another time, but in 2007-2008 I was standing on Wall Street in several emergencies sessions looking at the demise of the financial sector; this is horrific, but the plumbing of the finance sector is intact. Then, I was worried if ATMs would stop working over the weekend.... now, I'm concerned about the markets and companies and retirement plans. But the hysteria, the fear, the sheer terror of that time doesn't exist. Yes, this is going to be bad, waaaaaaay more bad than we've seen in a very long time. But I'm not worried about the liquidity in the overnight repo markets.

I don't have any insider information, but this will be at least as bad as the height of the Great Recession, if not a bit worse. My opinion only, so YMMV, but I believe anyone that thinks we will come out of this by year end, is deluding themselves and if selling that advice, committing malpractice.
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During the Great Recession the unemployment rate peaked at 10.2%. They project unemployment to peak at 19% and not until next year. That figure scares the crap out of me.
 
milehighgolfer said:
I have always been a buy and hold and not worry type of investor. But today I went mostly cash and bonds on all my accounts. Fortunately my funds had rebounded enough to be about even for the past year. One year of growth pissed away and the effects on my retirement goals is unknown now.

This summer will be ugly once the bankruptcies and further layoffs start to hit IMO. Then the foreclosures and the effects on banking from the marginal loans issued during the past good years. Not to mention the trade war which is well deserved against China. Manufacturing and associated jobs need to come back to the US but that will take some time.

Time to put your eggs in a safe place and weather the storm. Hopefully this fall will lead to a good time to get back in at a low.
Click to expand...

i wish you good luck. My advisors have me at about 15% cash and even though my retirement horizon is a matter of three years at most, I’m ok with it. I’ve never made wholesale shifts in and out of the market because I have to be right twice - right when I get out and right when I get back in. I’m not smart enough to be even approximately right twice at the right times.
 
Reframmellator said:
i wish you good luck. My advisors have me at about 15% cash and even though my retirement horizon is a matter of three years at most, I’m ok with it. I’ve never made wholesale shifts in and out of the market because I have to be right twice - right when I get out and right when I get back in. I’m not smart enough to be even approximately right twice at the right times.
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I'm still 40% in a good large cap fund and 60% in cash and bonds. It will fall off a cliff fast if/when it does crash imo. I'll look to get back in once the Dow dips below 19000 and only if the Covid crisis seems to be at its end. You don't have to time the bottom just don't ride over the cliff is my thoughts.
 
Bryndom said:
I am such a contrarian investor... this entire year, every week I throw some dollars at the market to buy all the way down... and eventually ... all the way up.

A very different story, for another time, but in 2007-2008 I was standing on Wall Street in several emergencies sessions looking at the demise of the financial sector; this is horrific, but the plumbing of the finance sector is intact. Then, I was worried if ATMs would stop working over the weekend.... now, I'm concerned about the markets and companies and retirement plans. But the hysteria, the fear, the sheer terror of that time doesn't exist. Yes, this is going to be bad, waaaaaaay more bad than we've seen in a very long time. But I'm not worried about the liquidity in the overnight repo markets.

I don't have any insider information, but this will be at least as bad as the height of the Great Recession, if not a bit worse. My opinion only, so YMMV, but I believe anyone that thinks we will come out of this by year end, is deluding themselves and if selling that advice, committing malpractice.
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I agree. The markets have been very stable, from a technical perspective -- no flash crashes, plenty of bids and asks on all levels, etc. Crazy volatile, but well-functioning.
 
I'm sitting with a pot of cash to invest , outside my UK equivalent of the 401k. Early 2017 , I made the decision to invest in Dow funds , thinking that whatever Trump would do, he would look after the markets. A conservative return over 30% since then has shown me to be lucky. That return is despite my mistakes, usually baling out before a rise. If I had left alone the rise to January 2020 would have been nearer 50%, but why should I complain. I baled out when Dow went down to 28,000 , and am back in now, still 30% higher than my investment.

Wish me luck.
 
Leftyuk said:
I'm sitting with a pot of cash to invest , outside my UK equivalent of the 401k. Early 2017 , I made the decision to invest in Dow funds , thinking that whatever Trump would do, he would look after the markets. A conservative return over 30% since then has shown me to be lucky. That return is despite my mistakes, usually baling out before a rise. If I had left alone the rise to January 2020 would have been nearer 50%, but why should I complain. I baled out when Dow went down to 28,000 , and am back in now, still 30% higher than my investment.

Wish me luck.
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Glad you have done well, so many out there are really struggling with the markets. I heard one say they have lost at least 30%. I am optimistic things will turn around here, yet I think they may be jerky for a while until things stabilize some. The US has put a ton of debt on the taxpayer now and what will happen? They were already strapped so bad there was no way out, yet it was a choice that seemed evident to keep going.

I have a mixed bag in 401, 427, etc. and have about 25% in cash and I have often fence sat at my age. When a person is dealing with their nest egg, gambling with the markets can be challenging and not always rewarding as what just happened.

I am facing retirement and now this virus cropped up. When you are facing retirement you tend to try to find things that are more aggressive that have low risk, which there really aren't any, and turn around quicker, yet they are not always the best choices. The experts always have the answers for you, yeah, right. One has to have the stomach for it.
 
I retired three years ago, so my 401k has dropped 20%. I retired with 20% more than I needed , so now I'm about right. I can cut back on cost easily, in three years I have been to Hawaii , New Zealand (twice), Australia , Florida (twice), Washington and the Masters.:cool:

I am so glad I am not working any more. Every Government has taken on debt that our grandchildren will be paying off.
 
Reframmellator said:
i wish you good luck. My advisors have me at about 15% cash and even though my retirement horizon is a matter of three years at most, I’m ok with it. I’ve never made wholesale shifts in and out of the market because I have to be right twice - right when I get out and right when I get back in. I’m not smart enough to be even approximately right twice at the right times.
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Nobody can time the market consistently and if you had been on the sidelines for the best 20 days for the stock market the last 50 years your total returns would have been about half the the rate of growth had you stayed the course.

Like you I’m a buy and hold type investor with about 10% in cash and an diversified mix of stocks, bonds, real estate, and alternative investments. From the peak in February my wife and and were down 23% on our investments March 23rd but didn’t sell. Had we sold we would have certainly missed the market rebound and we are now down only 3% off the February peak. We have sold some individual stocks and reinvested in others but l still believe you have to be invested at least 40% in equities long term to beat inflation. Diversification and saving at least 10-15% of your income starting at a young age(hopefully by age 25) is the key to a comfortable retirement and having the option to retire early.
 
Well I made it to retirement! With my "free time" I am trying to learn the market for small investments and kill time. I have my real money managed a great group of folks.

I am trying to learn swing trading? ... I want in and out fairly quickly ...

What I have learned so far, is I know absolutely nothing! Even though I am definitely on the positive side of my experiment, I recognize I am flying by the seat of my pants.
 
Bought a bunch of Zoom a month ago.. Up 52% :oops: Wish I would have bought more...
 
I have my investments split between a 401B plan at work and a ML account. And although our home is very modest, just a 1500 sq. foot ranch, we do own it. I am contributing furiously to the 401B account every paycheck because I hope to retire in 7-10 years (please God!). I got out of the Marine Corps after getting promoted to Captain after 10 years of combined enlisted/officer service. There are some days I really kick myself for getting out. I could have retired way back in 2009 and be kicking it. But I was in combat arms and survived one round of combat, so I also could have been killed or lost limbs like some of the guys I knew who stayed in experienced. I wish I'd started seriously investing earlier.
 
Boone said:
I have my investments split between a 401B plan at work and a ML account. And although our home is very modest, just a 1500 sq. foot ranch, we do own it. I am contributing furiously to the 401B account every paycheck because I hope to retire in 7-10 years (please God!). I got out of the Marine Corps after getting promoted to Captain after 10 years of combined enlisted/officer service. There are some days I really kick myself for getting out. I could have retired way back in 2009 and be kicking it. But I was in combat arms and survived one round of combat, so I also could have been killed or lost limbs like some of the guys I knew who stayed in experienced. I wish I'd started seriously investing earlier.
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Thank you for your service.
 
Boone said:
I have my investments split between a 401B plan at work and a ML account. And although our home is very modest, just a 1500 sq. foot ranch, we do own it. I am contributing furiously to the 401B account every paycheck because I hope to retire in 7-10 years (please God!). I got out of the Marine Corps after getting promoted to Captain after 10 years of combined enlisted/officer service. There are some days I really kick myself for getting out. I could have retired way back in 2009 and be kicking it. But I was in combat arms and survived one round of combat, so I also could have been killed or lost limbs like some of the guys I knew who stayed in experienced. I wish I'd started seriously investing earlier.
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Thank you also. A Chinese proverb says "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today."

It can be done. In March 2009, in my early fifties, I had a grand total of $30,000 in my retirement accounts. Today, I have over twenty times that. It took more than a few years of maxing out the 401(k) to get there.
 
Reframmellator said:
Thank you also. A Chinese proverb says "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today."

It can be done. In March 2009, in my early fifties, I had a grand total of $30,000 in my retirement accounts. Today, I have over twenty times that. It took more than a few years of maxing out the 401(k) to get there.
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Absolutely. I have been investing since my early 30's - beginning during my military service. Unfortunately, when I got out of the USMC I had to liquidate a lot of my investments to fund school, cover expenses while I was going to school, etc... Had I not done that, those investments alone would've set me up well. I've kept at it though and unlike many, I haven't blinked through the several major downturns we've experienced. I figure, I haven't lost anything - unless I sell :) I will get there, barring the Apocalypse (although that seems less funny today than it normally might).
 
kensisland said:
Well I made it to retirement! With my "free time" I am trying to learn the market for small investments and kill time. I have my real money managed a great group of folks.

I am trying to learn swing trading? ... I want in and out fairly quickly ...

What I have learned so far, is I know absolutely nothing! Even though I am definitely on the positive side of my experiment, I recognize I am flying by the seat of my pants.
Click to expand...
A few weeks back I got into day trading penny stocks. Was fun for a while but my account is so small that it’s not worth it because an account under 25k is limited to the pattern day trade rule and that is you can only do three round trip day trades per every five business days. You’re so limited that you have to focus on the best setups but if you’re wrong you can set a stop loss to break even or risk taking a chance and go negative. There were times that I set my stop loss at 2%, got in a trade on a 1-minute pull back and it went up a few cents then came right back down and stopped me out for negative 2% and there went one day trade. Swing trading is better as most buy and hold overnight or for a few days and this of course doesn’t count as a day trade. I am not expert by any means but I am happy to offer additional thoughts if you’d like. I used TD Ameritrade as broker and they have their priority free trading software called Thinkorswim which is great and easy to use.
 
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