Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

[JB]

10 years? That's very extreme. It won't take nearly that long. I am thinking 2021-2022 as well. Seems like people are jumping right back on the horse pretty quickly as things open up. There is no reason to think a decade will pass before things are cranking again.

Do you really think nominal GDP in a year? Maybe 18 months?

Despite a complete overreaction, what is done is done, but I am genuinely not sure how it would even be possible to get GDP back to nominal in that short of span. Expectation is a full 12% drop in 2nd quarter, with unemployment tripling. As a numbers guy, how would that shake out?

 

[Smiter]

Talk about government overreach

Coronavirus: Sex during lockdown with someone outside your household is illegal from today

The amended legislation comes into force on Monday and effectively bans sex with someone from a different household.

www.yahoo.com

I know this is From England but it doesn’t effect me. I’m at the weird age we’re almost all the women have divorced and remarried. I think I legally qualify as a monk.

I am driving to TN next Monday to visit my very active 90 year old mother. I will be curious to see how busy, or not, the highways are.

You’ll see less traffic for sure, at least that’s been my experience, just plan it to avoid going through downtowns during rush hour. But I mainly just wanted to say, safe travels sir!

Wait a second: courses were open but not selling beer

Too weird. Just bring your own I guess? It’s against the law in Ohio but I’ve never known that to stop anyone other than my dad. Dad has a very black and white view in some areas. This is one. Funny thing though is he’s not consistent with it, lol. So it might be fine for him somewhere else with the same restrictions.

Lol! In MA doing the speed limit is just a suggestion as well. I am not from MA, but have to agree that we have the worst drivers in the country.

I know you’re not even close, but they call folks in your parts Massholes for a reason, lol.

Multi-quote Kung-Fu master @JB, lol.

Prepare to see a lot of me this AM. No power and a fully charged phone.

 

[tahoebum]

Do you really think nominal GDP in a year? Maybe 18 months?

Despite a complete overreaction, what is done is done, but I am genuinely not sure how it would even be possible to get GDP back to nominal in that short of span. Expectation is a full 12% drop in 2nd quarter, with unemployment tripling. As a numbers guy, how would that shake out?

I’ll guess that GDP won’t see a strong recovery until 2022 or beyond. We will be feeling the effects of the shutdown for at least 5 years.

 

[Desmond]

The CDC recommended nobody other than medical workers wear masks for the first 5-6 weeks of the Covid 19 and then did a 180 turn. They also warned that the primary means of transmission was through touching of surfaces and then backed off on that recently.

Many epidemiologists differ in their opinions on whether healthy people showing no symptoms of being sick wearing cloth or surgical masks will slow the spread. From those physicians I’ve talked to, they don’t believe it is slowing the spread and may be increasing the spread as many people change their social distancing and/or even go out In public more often with a false sense of security wearing a homemade or non-medical mask. The county we have spent most of our time in these last two months has very few people wearing a masks(maybe 15%) in public places like Target or the grocery store and has only 14 cases(two deaths) with a population of 30,000 and 10 of those are from nursing homes. Population density, weather/temp, and the use of things like public transportation are much bigger factors on Covid 19 infection rates than whether or not people are wearing masks.

I’ll be traveling by air today and tomorrow and will likely wear my N95 mask but only if the airport is busy which I’m guessing it won’t be.

While I understand your argument, we all recognize the CDC and everyone else has changed their opinion about this virus as learning has evolved. Latest reading is masks are encouraged as is distancing.

For me, wearing a mask reminds me to social distance. When I was playing a round of golf without a mask, I forgot about the virus and we probably talked too closely with each other at times. So I've got to disagree wiith the docs or wonder if they are saying this theoretically, or have asked their patients. I notice that people in grocery stores with masks are more careful. People who don't wear masks, in general, come right up to you at times.

Wearing a mask may also help preventing getting spray on you. I'd wear glasses on a plane, too. Don't want spray in the eyes.

 

[Desmond]

I’ll guess that GDP won’t see a strong recovery until 2022 or beyond. We will be feeling the effects of the shutdown for at least 5 years.

Gosh, I can't even think of predicting this ... so much can happen. I mean, an infrastructure bill would help. We need it nationwide.

 

[e1iterate]

I will not wear a mask unless it is required.

In the past two weeks or so I’ve played golf, went to the gym, got a shave and haircut, been to the dentist and eaten out at local bars/restaurants.

I’m still alive and healthy.

 

[Sean]

Gosh, I can't even think of predicting this ... so much can happen. I mean, an infrastructure bill would help. We need it nationwide.

I take any predictions with grain of salt. So many have not borne any fruit. For the most part the science is never settled and is constantly evolving. It's irresponsible to make predictions based on scant information, or if so at least preface such predictions with a huge BUT and/or IF. And, those irresponsible predications can lead to a lot of poor decisions made by those in power, not to mention scaring the population.

 

[Desmond]

I will not wear a mask unless it is required.

In the past two weeks or so I’ve played golf, went to the gym, got a shave and haircut, been to the dentist and eaten out at local bars/restaurants.

I’m still alive and healthy.

Yes, I've seen your prior posts. I get it - personal freedom and all.

How about the people you may have infected if you are asymptomatic?

How are they?

They are strangers, so you don't know.

It's about respect for others.

That is a primary purpose of masks, protecting others, although I would not wear one during exercise or golf or when outside and not in a crowd. Wearing a mask is not a political statement. It means that one respects others.

 

[golfunfiltered]

Wearing a mask is the easiest thing to do in this whole situation. It doesn't make anyone look weak, or weird, or anything negative. Although they are a pain sometimes in terms of breathable materials, it's a small gesture we can do for each other. Nobody will think less of you.

 

[e1iterate]

Yes, I've seen your prior posts. I get it - personal freedom and all.

How about the people you may have infected if you are asymptomatic?

How are they?

They are strangers, so you don't know.

It's about respect for others.

That is a primary purpose of masks, protecting others, although I would not wear one during exercise or golf or when outside and not in a crowd. Wearing a mask is not a political statement. It means that one respects others.

Stop with the fear mongering.

If you’re worried and want to wear a mask then go ahead. I will not wear one unless I have to. It’s my choice and it doesn’t mean I don’t respect others.

 

[JDax]

Yes, I've seen your prior posts. I get it - personal freedom and all.

How about the people you may have infected if you are asymptomatic?

How are they?

They are strangers, so you don't know.

It's about respect for others.

That is a primary purpose of masks, protecting others, although I would not wear one during exercise or golf or when outside and not in a crowd. Wearing a mask is not a political statement. It means that one respects others.

The use of a mask is Safety Theatre, It’s an illusion of safety. I’ve participated in enough 3M fit tests and training to know that a regular cloth mask will not prevent anything like COVID19 droplets from getting though.

No one is required to do anything to make you feel better, and your whole point is about respect and feelings not function.

 

[tequila4kapp]

While I understand your argument, we all recognize the CDC and everyone else has changed their opinion about this virus as learning has evolved. Latest reading is masks are encouraged as is distancing.

For me, wearing a mask reminds me to social distance. When I was playing a round of golf without a mask, I forgot about the virus and we probably talked too closely with each other at times. So I've got to disagree wiith the docs or wonder if they are saying this theoretically, or have asked their patients. I notice that people in grocery stores with masks are more careful. People who don't wear masks, in general, come right up to you at times.

Wearing a mask may also help preventing getting spray on you. I'd wear glasses on a plane, too. Don't want spray in the eyes.

The CDC went back and forth on surface transmission within the same week. There’s a level of incompetence there more than just incremental learning, IMO.

 

[golfunfiltered]

I guess I just don't understand the desire to be defiant in something as trivial as putting a covering over your face for a temporary time. Is it because people don't like being told what to do? Perhaps. I get it. I don't love authority and like my freedoms.

But I fail to see the big deal about doing it. Restaurant patios are open now in IL, and I had a great weekend (and a few too many beers) sitting with my friends, no mask while drinking/eating, and felt great. When I got up and was still around others, I slipped my mask on for like three minutes until I was away from others and went about my day.

Maybe it is totally about feelings over function. But aren't those important too?

 

[Vortex]

Stop with the fear mongering.

If you’re worried and want to wear a mask then go ahead. I will not wear one unless I have to. It’s my choice and it doesn’t mean I don’t respect others.

Ditto! I stopped at a local store last night to pick up mulch. Store required people to wear masks. Good for them but I left and went to another store down the road that didn’t require them.
Our company now allows travel. I was asked to attend a meeting near Boston in a couple of weeks. If Delta requires masks, then I’m out. Comments about the dreaded corona spray are comical. Fear porn at its best/worst.

 

[LICC]

Sweden’s COVID Death Rate Now Ten Times Higher than Norway’s | National Review

According to Worldometers, 435 out of every million Swedes have died from coronavirus, while the virus has killed 44 out of every million Norwegians.

www.nationalreview.com

 

[annsguy]

I had a socially distanced dinner with a friend who is a doctor and looks at mortailty rates and the number of new cases nationwide daily. Not sure what site he uses. He said that the death rates and number of cases have not gone dow at all. Not spiked either but the pont is they continue to happen in large numbers. He said and repeated a couple of times that the mistake people are making is that we will all talk about the second wave, He feels like we are far from the end of the first wave.

 

[annsguy]

Still waiting to hear what our Govenor will do about the RNC coming to my town. I dont want a ton of people flying in and leaving us with more cases. That is not political. It is fear of illness for my family and friends. I would welcome anyone money being left in Charlotte but at what price.

 

[Vortex]

I guess I just don't understand the desire to be defiant in something as trivial as putting a covering over your face for a temporary time. Is it because people don't like being told what to do? Perhaps. I get it. I don't love authority and like my freedoms.

But I fail to see the big deal about doing it. Restaurant patios are open now in IL, and I had a great weekend (and a few too many beers) sitting with my friends, no mask while drinking/eating, and felt great. When I got up and was still around others, I slipped my mask on for like three minutes until I was away from others and went about my day.

Maybe it is totally about feelings over function. But aren't those important too?

The concept is often called bending the knee. History is filled with examples. Those in power only ask for a small concession and then you’re “free” to go. Some question the rationale behind the concession. Failure to comply creates the intended division.

Back in the day, Daniel could have avoided the Lion’s Den by bending the knee.

 

[JDax]

Stop with the fear mongering.

If you’re worried and want to wear a mask then go ahead. I will not wear one unless I have to. It’s my choice and it doesn’t mean I don’t respect others.

Exercising individual freedom isn’t selfish.
You do you...

 

[DataDude]

Do you really think nominal GDP in a year? Maybe 18 months?

Despite a complete overreaction, what is done is done, but I am genuinely not sure how it would even be possible to get GDP back to nominal in that short of span. Expectation is a full 12% drop in 2nd quarter, with unemployment tripling. As a numbers guy, how would that shake out?

I think 2021 could be similar to 2019, maybe slightly lower. 2022 for sure at 2019 levels. I think there will be some pretty big government spending after the election.

 

[LICC]

I think 2021 could be similar to 2019, maybe slightly lower. 2022for sure at 2019 levels. I think there will be some pretty big government spending after the election.

Once a vaccine is available widespread, I can see the economy bouncing back very quickly, within a year.

 

[tequila4kapp]

Stop with the fear mongering.

If you’re worried and want to wear a mask then go ahead. I will not wear one unless I have to. It’s my choice and it doesn’t mean I don’t respect others.

The info has admittedly gone back and forth so it’s a little hard to remember where we stand but I think the latest word is that wearing a mask doesn’t protect us from acquiring C19 but it does help against spreading it to others. If that’s correct, not wearing a mask is putting others at an increased risk. I don’t know about respect but that seems to demonstrate a lack of consideration for others.

 

[JohnSinVA]

Do you really think nominal GDP in a year? Maybe 18 months?

Despite a complete overreaction, what is done is done, but I am genuinely not sure how it would even be possible to get GDP back to nominal in that short of span. Expectation is a full 12% drop in 2nd quarter, with unemployment tripling. As a numbers guy, how would that shake out?

It would require massive deregulation and overhaul of the tax code. Even if all that can be accomplished it’s highly...optimistic.

 

[DaBuckBoys]

Living in a small city in a rural county we certainly participate in the shutdown but now are at a point where the virus really isn't a factor. At 43 positives in a population of 42k, no deaths and no new positives since May 14th. We had a little cluster originally at a doctors' office (8 or so positives) and a good friend was the 3rd positive in the county. She was part of a cluster on a floor at the state university hospital.

My wife and I continued to go to work throughout the shutdown. She is a director at the county hospital. I run a small county office in the courthouse. The hospital & local city offices very much follow guidelines and so forth. The county offices not so much. Almost no central leadership, basically each department was left to do their own thing.

My wife still hasn't been to the grocery or any other store since March. I take care of all the shopping and cooking. Honestly its just easier that way anyways from a planning standpoint. Her hours were way up in the beginning then as the hospital slowed down she was able to scale back quite a bit. The last few weeks have seen incremental increase in procedures and non-covid er activity. They still aren't doing surgeries requiring overnight stays.

We are fortunate to have friends that have a 2nd house with about 60 acres that allowed us to hang out on weekends and keep our distance. No one lives there so we pretty much would be outside in good weather or on the other side of the room when it was cold or raining. We all went kayaking a couple of Sundays ago. Gorgeous morning. Floated under a bald eagle then had two wild turkeys fly across the river about 5 minutes later. 40 years ago that would have been like seeing a unicorn and the loch ness monster.

We ended that float at small town bar/restaurant on the river. It was when places with outdoor seating were allowed to open. Its really an enclosed patio with large windows that open. Not sure there was anything compliant about the place and several of our friends were uncomfortable. The owner's niece or cousin (I forget what she said) was running the place and basically saying they weren't going to make employees wear masks or seat patrons apart. It was pretty arrogant attitude at the time. We had a few drinks & got out of there.

I think the incremental re-opening is fine. Would love for everyone to be safe & healthy and enjoy the kind of small town kind of appreciation for personal space we have. My wife said to me months ago, "I guess you've been preparing for this your whole life as an introverted germaphobe..."

 

[tequila4kapp]

The wife and I will be finding a bar/pub/restaurant this weekend to have a sit down beverage and food. It will be glorious.

Friends from CA are visiting S. Carolina. They report things are WAY different in SC than CA and that it’s almost weird to be able to sit at a bar and have a drink.