2020 Morgan Cup Odds: #ForTheCup

JDax

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And finally... We get a slice of goodness in this world gone mad. The Morgan Cup is Back!!!!
What would a Morgan Cup be without getting a breakdown and some Odds?


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When & Where
TPC Vegas

October 9th-11th
Las Vegas, NV

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The course on which the Morgan Cup will be contested is well known, as last year's Distance Powered by Srixon Event was also held there. I was there live providing coverage for the forum, and can attest how great of track this course is for a competitive event.

The Morgan Cup will be competed for over the course of 45 holes of competition, and the format is a great one for this course, and could provide for some drama down the stretch. The back nine is at least 3 strokes harder than the front nine (especially the closing holes), if matches get to this daunting stretch, there are swings that can be had and that's how points get stolen. The course itself is flat out gorgeous with a lot of great views, the participants are in for a treat.

If you want to take a closer look at the course, here is the link to the official site:


If you want to take a deep dive in how another group of THP'ers handled this course, this thread is a great place to go:


The Format:
Saturday

18 Holes: Shamble Format
9 Holes: Alternate Shot Format

Sunday
18 Holes: Singles

I like this format, because I believe that this is a course that lends itself to longer holed matches. Because this format has two 18 hole matches, there is 16 points available in total, 8' points wins the Morgan Cup. If you have been around for awhile, you will know that I am a huge mark for the Alternate Shot Format, and I'm glad to see it's inclusion here. The Team that is able to make a move in that 3rd nine, is the Team that will probably win the Morgan Cup.

The Handicaps of the Teams:

Team Hackers:
Captain: OITW (10.9)
Asst Captain: Mike Yagley from Cobra Golf (5.9)
E1iterate (10.5)
Parrot (11.2)
H8tobogie (11.4)
baylrballa (11.9)
Jmk202 (13.6)
maxw72 (18.7)

Team Paradise:
Captain: jdtox (6.2)
Asst Captain: Jose Miraflor from Cobra Golf (3.7)
KY Golfer (4.7)
ToddJ027b (5.6)
Duffer Waldorf (8.6)
MarMill8412 (8.9)
Oumagic (9.4)
Vdubtx (17.1)



On paper Team Paradise holds a big edge on combined handicap front (8.0 to 11.8), both Captains will have interesting options as it relates to pairings. I will say that it appears that Team Paradise has more options related to balancing their parings, and Team Hackers margin for error related to pairings is slimmer.

Alternate Shot being the format that will keep both Captains in deep thought from now to the Cup. Pairings for Alternate Shot could be the difference between winning and losing the Cup. Without attempting to bias the pairings, there is a very chalky path for Team Paradise to follow in the Alternate Shot stanza that would apply maximum pressure to Team Paradise. I'll be interested to see how both Captains handle their options.

Pops are a great equalizer, and Team Hackers is likely to be getting pops in most pairing configurations. It's also worth noting that Team Hacker's Captain OITW arrives to this Morgan Cup with a handicap 3 strokes higher than he had last year, while Team Paradise's Captain jdtox has a handicap almost a stroke lower that he had in last year's event. The Captain's match should be interesting, as jdtox will be glad not to draw Canadan this year. E1iterate also arrives with his game seemingly in shambles with a handicap 2 stokes higher than his historic low, and a round of 90 his last time out.

Club Selection:

Team Hackers:
Captain: OITW (10.9)- Forged Tec
Asst Captain: Mike Yagley from Cobra Golf (5.9)
E1iterate (10.5)- Forged Tec
Parrot (11.2)- Forged Tec
H8tobogie (11.4)- Forged Tec
baylrballa (11.9)- Forged Tec
Jmk202 (13.6)- Forged Tec OL
maxw72 (18.7)- Forged Tec

Team Paradise:
Captain: jdtox (6.2)- Forged Tec
Asst Captain: Jose Miraflor from Cobra Golf (3.7)
KY Golfer (4.7)- Speedzone
ToddJ027b (5.6)- Forged Tec
Duffer Waldorf (8.6)- Speedzone
MarMill8412 (8.9)- Forged Tec
Oumagic (9.4)- Forged Tec OL
Vdubtx (17.1)- Speedzone


As you can see, not much of a contrast between the 2 teams in the area of club selection. Team Hackers opting heavily to go with the Forged Tec line, while Team Paradise's club selection was a little more mixed. Personally, I have hit all of the new Cobra offering, and feel that the Forged Tec is the best iron that Cobra has ever made. It is an iron that is uber forgiving and retains ball speed on mishits all over the face, in a players distance profile.

Also, a wide range of handicaps can play the Forged Tec line without problem, so I think that the adjustment period will be better handled well by both teams. In the pressure cooker that is Morgan Cup pressure, I do like the fact that some on Team Paradise took the Speedzone irons. The Speedzone Irons are sneaky good and more forgiving than the Forged Tec.

Because the Morgan Cup was pushed back from it's original date, the majority of the participants have had their equipment a lot longer than in past Morgan Cups. Many of the participants have also had the ability to tinker with their set up, which is not normally the case in the Morgan Cup. There shouldn't be any excuses related to getting comfortable with the equipment.

Opening Odds:

Note: This is for entrainment proposes only, and to get some chatter built up about the Morgan Cup. Not to hurt anyone's feelings.

It is hard not to make Team Paradise a favorite here to open. They have a Captain that is attempting to build on the lessons learned last year in a losing effort and will be highly motivated to complete his Morgan Cup Trilogy on a winning note (MVP to Losing Captain to TBD). I also like Team Paradise's pairing flexibility more, this pairing flexibility makes Team Hackers margin for error very thin, and Team Paradise has the lower combined team handicap. The course isn't very difficult off the tee, however, it does require you to be in the correct position in order to take advantage and score. Ball striking will be at a premium, and Team Paradise fits that bill on paper.

Team Hackers is a live dog and will give Team Paradise all it can handle if they can make the most of the pops that they are going to get. To make these pops count the most, they need to get Singles Sunday in the mix. If they survive the Alternate Shot stanza, all bets are off because they have a bunch of mid caps that will be getting pops in singles. It's going to be a great follow, can Team Hackers win without Canadan or will jdtox have his "Return of the Jedi" moment and close the trilogy out?

This post will serve for updates in the odds and break downs, with that being said, I'm ready to post an opening number.

Opening Team Odds of Winning the 2020 Morgan Cup:

Team Paradise -300
Team Hackers +250


Team Odds of Winning the 2020 Morgan Cup (10/3/20 Update):
Team Paradise -250
Team Hackers +200


Team Odds of Winning the 2020 Morgan Cup (10/8/20 Update):
Team Paradise -190
Team Hackers +150


Team Odds of Winning the 2020 Morgan Cup (10/10/20 Update):
Team Paradise -220
Team Hackers +175

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Hell of a write up Dax! Gets me more pumped than I already am!
 
Ok @OITW I’ll waffle now.

You all can’t possibbly win so win you shall (think “wax on, wax off”). Probably more of the ....

I’d change my official pick but once a pick is in, I’m in.

We can still be friends. I’ll shall cheer you despite it being to my detriment.
 
Love the odds and the positive money for Team Hackers. Gotta put some $$ there.

How about some prop bets? 😉
 
Love the odds and the positive money for Team Hackers. Gotta put some $$ there.

How about some prop bets? 😉

Like how many eggplant pics we’ll see?

O/U is 72.

What you taking?
 
What a write up mate, that is awesome, so exciting to see it all laid out like that! Looks like it could be a bit of a squeaker, but my money is always where my heart is - Hackers gonna take it ;)
 
Love the live Dog, lets go #teamhackers!

 
I like the odds.

My big concern for team paradise is the number of 10-12 handicaps on team hackers. A 10-12 handicap can play some brilliant golf and some dreadful golf. If a few guys start firing on all cylinders, it will be tough to overcome those 2-3 pops team hackers will be getting on each match.

I think a few individuals will have the opportunity to sway the cup towards their team.

On team paradise I think @vdubtx is going to have an opportunity to earn some major points for Paradise and @KY Golfer I have a feeling will play a decisive role on Team Paradises victory. Both chose SpeedZone irons which built on the success of the F9 iron last year.

On Team Hackers side, it is surprising to see @OITW drift that far up in handicap from last year. He and Littlerat had an epic singles match. Overall, looking at the bags there are several members on Team Hackers that look poised to make the jump to single figures. Will one or more of them rise to the moment during the Morgan Cup?

@jdtox and @OITW both have a lot of good possible pairings and I think it will come down to singles on Sunday.

#TeamParadise
 
Team Paradise for the win! Have fun boys, no matter who comes out victorious, going to be blast and we’ll be following albeit cheering a little harder for our Paradise boys 😜
 
hahaha love the write up here!!!...im betting the house on Team Paradise!
 
hahaha love the write up here!!!...im betting the house on Team Paradise!
Ooft, one of us is going to be homeless in a week or so ;)
 
Great work @JDax always enjoy your thoughts, interesting bit of info there
 
Awesome work @JDax this is going to be fun. Love me some odds & seeing Team Paradise favored is a plus. However that also means they have to hold up the reputation & not let being favored get to them!
 
Oh man, what a great write-up. My pick was Team Hackers so I'm happy to root for the "underdogs"
 
This is so much fun. I know I say it every year but I look forward to these.
 
That was fun to read, great write up.
 
That was seriously one of the best write ups I’ve seen for an MC! Well done @jdtox. Tim paradise has got this locked. No matter the amount of pops. #teamparadiseforever!
 
Great write up @JDax ! Going to be a great event, so cant wait to see who comes through!
 
I like the odds.

My big concern for team paradise is the number of 10-12 handicaps on team hackers. A 10-12 handicap can play some brilliant golf and some dreadful golf. If a few guys start firing on all cylinders, it will be tough to overcome those 2-3 pops team hackers will be getting on each match.

I think a few individuals will have the opportunity to sway the cup towards their team.

On team paradise I think @vdubtx is going to have an opportunity to earn some major points for Paradise and @KY Golfer I have a feeling will play a decisive role on Team Paradises victory. Both chose SpeedZone irons which built on the success of the F9 iron last year.

On Team Hackers side, it is surprising to see @OITW drift that far up in handicap from last year. He and Littlerat had an epic singles match. Overall, looking at the bags there are several members on Team Hackers that look poised to make the jump to single figures. Will one or more of them rise to the moment during the Morgan Cup?

@jdtox and @OITW both have a lot of good possible pairings and I think it will come down to singles on Sunday.

#TeamParadise
I definitely think that there is a chance that Team Hackers with all those mids catches a heater and rides it out.

The format actually hurts Hackers here, I love teams that get pops in 9 hole matches, in 18 hole matches it tends to even out. There is only 1 9 hole match in this format.
 
Great job laying this one out for the community, @JDax. Cannot wait to get to Vegas and compete! We will be heading to the course one week from today for a practice round and the first opportunity to have both full teams together.

To Team Hackers:
 
Mississippi State was +450 last weekend. I guess anything is possible.
 
Wooow this is awesome!
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It was actually more than that as a 16’ point dog.
Just going off of what Bovada had. It may have changed prior to kickoff though.
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