Agreed I think they all get in, and based on the numbers and longevity I really don't have an issue with it. I think super bowls are a touch overrated in determining HOF status though. Again it's not tennis, no one is winning the SB with one guy. When you get into winning several I can see how that might start to add. But Eli was probably less responsible than the D line for both of his, though he was good those two years in the playoffs. Peyton's second was all defense, and Ben's first was all defense.Eli and Ben both have 2 Super Bowl wins. They are both auto in the HOF. Maybe not first ballot, but will get in.
Rivers has some good numbers and will eventually get in as well. However, with Brees retiring this year as well, I don't expect Rivers to get in the same year. He will also have to wait a bit. But I think all three (Ben, Eli, and Rivers) get into the HOF. Talk about a great QB draft class.
My point is that they all get there on numbers, Eli being the most marginal (I think without looking at overall numbers) because while he was pretty good, he was never great. The argument could be made that the others all were great for multiple years. I know that the voters will put too much onus on the SB wins and that makes your prediction likely to happen. I just think Rivers was better than both Ben or Eli, and doesn't carry the baggage that Ben does. I wonder though if the voters will punish Ben, similarly to how they did TO. TO was just a jerk while Ben had some serious allegations against him.