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Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

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JB said:
Do you think in many of these less dense areas, that have not been impacted as much, that more restrictions need to be in place?
Especially with warmer weather areas?
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I should add to this.
Or do you think these areas like NY, CA and WA with that population and a later start than just about everybody (NY), along with their traveling, that its doomed everywhere?
 
JB said:
Do you think in many of these less dense areas, that have not been impacted as much, that more restrictions need to be in place?
Especially with warmer weather areas?
Click to expand...

That's the concern, that people will just "take it with them" from the high areas to the low. Take the NY metro area, for instance. You can easily leave the city, and head to Vermont, New Hampshire, coastal Connecticut, etc. by car. And you can still take flights in and out of the city. So, given that connectivity, is there any "low risk" area? There needs to be more controls put in place. For instance - it's commonplace in some countries for temperature monitoring before people enter public spaces like offices and shops during flu season. We're doing it at work for people who need to be on site. It's worked - there have been people turned away.

There's been a lot of modeling done on this type of response w/ no other restrictions worked in, and the results aren't great.
 
JB said:
I should add to this.
Or do you think these areas like NY, CA and WA with that population and a later start than just about everybody (NY), along with their traveling, that its doomed everywhere?
Click to expand...

Here I'll put my optimist hat back on again. I think if you look at San Francisco, who put pretty severe interventions in place relatively early, they avoided a lot of the issues we're seeing in NY, where the Mayor literally went to the gym a week ago.

Unfortunately in places where they've tried to ease on restrictions for open spaces, etc. you've seen people standing shoulder to shoulder in parks (DC for the cherry blossoms) or beaches (the dumb spring breakers in FL for an example). Essentially ruining it for everyone.
 
mpeterson said:
That's the concern, that people will just "take it with them" from the high areas to the low. Take the NY metro area, for instance. You can easily leave the city, and head to Vermont, New Hampshire, coastal Connecticut, etc. by car. And you can still take flights in and out of the city. So, given that connectivity, is there any "low risk" area? There needs to be more controls put in place. For instance - it's commonplace in some countries for temperature monitoring before people enter public spaces like offices and shops during flu season. We're doing it at work for people who need to be on site. It's worked - there have been people turned away.

There's been a lot of modeling done on this type of response w/ no other restrictions worked in, and the results aren't great.
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I agree with this. Glad we put the 14 day in place for those coming into the state from the Tri-State area.
Still have no idea how that is enforced, but its a good start.

My thought is a simple one. If every single person in this country (had the means) stayed in their home for a full 15 days, never left, no contact, etc. We could probably be done.

Is that possible? No, but its a wish.
 
JDax said:
Ok bro...
Has the mortality rate seemed to settle nationwide between 0.7% and 1.4%? ✅

Did I not say that Lombardi area of Italy has demographic factors that caused it’s mortality rate to skyrocket. ✅

Like anything else there are a variety of factors that lead to hot spots, but is that enough for entire country to commit economic suicide?

You’re a big lock it down guy, what happens on the second wave when we have no herd immunity, because of the quarantines?
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Know what else would result in economic suicide? A large portion of the population in the hospital. The CDC's stats have large percentages of people, even in the younger age groups being hospitalized. To get herd immunity, you're looking at the infection of 60% of the population getting sick. It's a fine line, and if people delay, this whole thing gets dragged out.

Honestly "bro" - I'm done, you've come to your conclusions, I'm not going to bother.
 
mpeterson said:
Know what else would result in economic suicide? A large portion of the population in the hospital. The CDC's stats have large percentages of people, even in the younger age groups being hospitalized. To get herd immunity, you're looking at the infection of 60% of the population getting sick. It's a fine line, and if people delay, this whole thing gets dragged out.

Honestly "bro" - I'm done, you've come to your conclusions, I'm not going to bother.
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Noted... I retract the “bro” statement. (For the record I once held up my foursome waiting to see if you made a putt at Hype rooting for you). Remember that @e1iterate ? Lol

2703B625-01F4-433F-9167-45665C2FDF09.gif

Any opinion that the approach needs to be pragmatic, gets met with destain.

Did you get “furloughed” this week?

I know three people that did get “furloughed” this week, do you think that those people care about the small chance that they will catch Covid-19? Remember these people don’t work in a Hot Spot like NYC, but their rent is due no later than April 5th.
 
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myspinonit said:
^^^ I meant to also post here this morning that the Provincial Government under the Direction of the Chief Provincial Health Office announced yesterday they have imposed State of Emergency control of the whole Province though the City of Vancouver still has its authority as allowed under it's Charter. Part of that is having central control of essential supply chains through the Province. Another is imposing fines up to $25,000 and jail time up to a year for breaching measures. Local bylaw officers through the Province can now assist the Province in investigating non-compliance to Provincial orders.
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I had to chuckle when I heard that on the news.
a) I'd love to see someone get fined from 2 meters away.
b) It was a short month ago when our Police forces couldn't even get a small handful of illegal protesters from blocking major infrastructure across the Country. Now By-law officers are going to fining people?
 
JDax said:
Noted... I retract the “bro” statement. (For the record I once held up my foursome waiting to see if you made a putt at Hype rooting for you). Remember that @e1iterate ? Lol

View attachment 8934019

Any opinion that the approach needs to be pragmatic, gets met with destain.

Did you get “furloughed” this week?

I know three people that did get “furloughed” this week, do you think that those people care about the small chance that they will catch Covid-19? Remember these people don’t work in a Hot Spot like NYC, but their rent is due no later than April 5th.
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I am lucky, but my mom is a hairdresser, my dad works in retail, and my sister works at a gym - it hasn't been a fun couple weeks. And that's the thing that sucks - because of a bunch of bad decisions by pretty much everyone, we're where we are. And it sucks.

And with honesty, I get where you're coming from. There's a lot of work going on to find ways to track/trace people, and I'm optimistic there will be a path out of this with some kind of approach in that vein, along with finding antivirals that work well. But for now, we're still largely flying blind. The goal here is to buy time.
 
mpeterson said:
I am lucky, but my mom is a hairdresser, my dad works in retail, and my sister works at a gym - it hasn't been a fun couple weeks. And that's the thing that sucks - because of a bunch of bad decisions by pretty much everyone, we're where we are. And it sucks.

And with honesty, I get where you're coming from. There's a lot of work going on to find ways to track/trace people, and I'm optimistic there will be a path out of this with some kind of approach in that vein, along with finding antivirals that work well. But for now, we're still largely flying blind. The goal here is to buy time.
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And I think your last part there sums up my feeling.
We are flying blind. From the “its the plague and our year is over” to the opposite of “its just the flu”, the truth is, nobody knows. I do think that it will impact locations differently based on density and weather, but that is my opinion.
 
obedt said:
And the same applies to flu as well as many other infectious diseases. That's why the ratios & comparison can stand.
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nobody is sheltering in place for the typical flu season..... I agree that not everyone gets tested for the flu, and clearly few are being tested for COVID19 in the US, but when ~110mm of US population are shelter in place one can assume this has an impact to actual infection cases, test or not, correct?
 
JB said:
And I think your last part there sums up my feeling.
We are flying blind. From the “its the plague and our year is over” to the opposite of “its just the flu”, the truth is, nobody knows. I do think that it will impact locations differently based on density and weather, but that is my opinion.
Click to expand...

Yup, somewhere squarely in the middle of that wide range. I think one of the big benefits about being aggressive about distancing is it buys time to figure out exactly what's going on (or at least as much as we can).

I wish I had a higher opinion of human nature and cooperation, because I'd say that things could be done to loosen things a little if everyone worked together. But based on what we've seen, that hasn't worked - people just keep congregating in huge groups.
 
ArmyGolf said:
I had to chuckle when I heard that on the news.
a) I'd love to see someone get fined from 2 meters away.
b) It was a short month ago when our Police forces couldn't even get a small handful of illegal protesters from blocking major infrastructure across the Country. Now By-law officers are going to fining people?
Click to expand...
I hope they put some teeth in it. I understood that the ability to impose those large fines were mostly targeted to businesses (like restaurants and bars that don't stay closed, or ones that hold a large wedding). But that by-law officers could provide info to the Province. I believe they were also looking for up to $1000 individual fines. I think (hope) now under the emergency measures that those protestors wouldn't have police just blocking traffic and just standing by.
 
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i saw a banner that 1 in 4 americans has been laid off or furloughed. that’s insane.
 
myspinonit said:
I hope they put some teeth in it. I understood that the ability to impose those large fines were mostly targeted to businesses (like restaurants and bars that don't stay closed, or ones that hold a large wedding). But that by-law officers could provide info to the Province. I believe they were also looking for up to $1000 individual fines. I think (hope) now under the emergency measures that those protestors wouldn't have police just blocking traffic and just standing by.
Click to expand...
ps The probable upcoming "Weed Day" protest was already set to be interesting with the City saying no Stanley Park . I'm confident the authorities will be discussing contingencies.
 
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McLovin said:
i saw a banner that 1 in 4 americans has been laid off or furloughed. that’s insane.
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But the question is, was it done to save the small business? “Hey, I can’t pay you or we’ll lose the company entirely. If I lay you off, you can collect unemployment and then when safe to come back, I just hire you back.”

How many of those cases are true?
 
Stemmy66 said:
nobody is sheltering in place for the typical flu season..... I agree that not everyone gets tested for the flu, and clearly few are being tested for COVID19 in the US, but when ~110mm of US population are shelter in place one can assume this has an impact to actual infection cases, test or not, correct?
Click to expand...
Not sure I fully follow you my friend. Sorry, a little slow rn
 
aljaklaw said:
big spike in "recovered" cases for BC today, I think that will be not uncommon as people come out of quarantine with no further symptoms
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but On the sad side I think another care home got hit today. Too late I guess stopping care workers doing shifts at more than one facility. I can imagine some form of future controls on this generally after this crisis.
 
MWard said:
But the question is, was it done to save the small business? “Hey, I can’t pay you or we’ll lose the company entirely. If I lay you off, you can collect unemployment and then when safe to come back, I just hire you back.”

How many of those cases are true?
Click to expand...

A lot of this is happening.
In fact we have a number of people including a family member that this has happened to.
 
McLovin said:
i saw a banner that 1 in 4 americans has been laid off or furloughed. that’s insane.
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There are almost 160M Americans in the workforce. 3M signed up for unemployment benefits last week. It’s reasonable to expect a lot more, especially since the just passed law opens up the definition of who can receive unemployment benefits. But the thought of another 37M being in that boat is insane and very scary.
 
MWard said:
But the question is, was it done to save the small business? “Hey, I can’t pay you or we’ll lose the company entirely. If I lay you off, you can collect unemployment and then when safe to come back, I just hire you back.”

How many of those cases are true?
Click to expand...
It's interesting up here. I haven't digested all of the information yet but it seems like we have 2 forms of assistance happening simultaneously.

Option 1) Your employer gets approved by government for a 75% wage subsidy (not sure what the qualifications are yet), keeps you employed and continues to pay you 75% of your wage while you're sitting at home.
Option 2) Your employer does not qualify. You instead get laid off and then apply for Federal assistance - giving you $2000/month.
 
ArmyGolf said:
It's interesting up here. I haven't digested all of the information yet but it seems like we have 2 forms of assistance happening simultaneously.

Option 1) Your employer gets approved by government for a 75% wage subsidy (not sure what the qualifications are yet), keeps you employed and continues to pay you 75% of your wage while you're sitting at home.
Option 2) Your employer does not qualify. You instead get laid off and then apply for Federal assistance - giving you $2000/month.
Click to expand...

Option 3... Oh you're self employed huh? ...... Welp. :(
 
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