Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

[MagicSpell]

You are comparing other contagious diseases in which we never did a shutdown, to a very highly contagious and deadly disease in which we shut down. Without shutdowns, we could have been looking at 70,000+ deaths in the 54 and under age group, based on comparisons of other countries in which non-shutdown rates were 10x higher.

7,000 dead during a shutdown. Non-existent? Wow.

You're still dodging the question. No one has said the deaths are non-existent. They've said the data to support your 20X claim is non-existent. Either cite your reference or quit claiming it as valid data.
By the way, comparing mortality rates doesn't matter if there were a shutdown or not. Mortality rates aren't affected by the shutdown. Only the infection rate is affected.

 

[e1iterate]

You're still dodging the question. No one has said the deaths are non-existent. They've said the data to support your 20X claim is non-existent. Either cite your reference or quit claiming it as valid data.
By the way, comparing mortality rates doesn't matter if there were a shutdown or not. Mortality rates aren't affected by the shutdown. Only the infection rate is affected.

He is just trolling at this point trying to spread fear to everyone here. I’m glad most are smart enough to realize fear mongering and lockdown till a cure isn’t the answer.

 

[NoLine]

You are comparing other contagious diseases in which we never did a shutdown, to a very highly contagious and deadly disease in which we shut down. Without shutdowns, we could have been looking at 70,000+ deaths in the 54 and under age group, based on comparisons of other countries in which non-shutdown rates were 10x higher.

7,000 dead during a shutdown. Non-existent? Wow.

I’m reminded of a line from Good Morning Viet Nam.......


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[LICC]

You're still dodging the question. No one has said the deaths are non-existent. They've said the data to support your 20X claim is non-existent. Either cite your reference or quit claiming it as valid data.
By the way, comparing mortality rates doesn't matter if there were a shutdown or not. Mortality rates aren't affected by the shutdown. Only the infection rate is affected.

Death per capita relies on the total death number for the numerator. Therefore, whether there is a shutdown or not is absolutely relevant.

 

[RealPretendPsychic]

Local Italian place here held an Open PA rally today with some elected officials. Their business license was suspended because they reopened their indoor dining area against the state and CDC guidelines. I get my Italian food from a couple spots around the corner so it shouldn’t affect my supply chain.

 

[NoLine]

Local Italian place here held an Open PA rally today with some elected officials. Their business license was suspended because they reopened their indoor dining area against the state and CDC guidelines. I get my Italian food from a couple spots around the corner so it shouldn’t affect my supply chain.

Though you dictator, err governor, didn’t seem to think social distancing was important when he was peacefully protesting the other day.


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[RealPretendPsychic]

Though you dictator, err governor, didn’t seem to think social distancing was important when he was peacefully protesting the other day.


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His actions don’t affect my opinion of local pizza joints. I doubt we have similar tastes anyway. F&J for the win if I’m going cheese. Their pepperoni is greasy as hell so I’ll reserve my opinion there for now. The speciality pizzas are nothing to write home about, but their subs and sides are excellent.

There are tons of family owned restaurants around here. We’ve ordered carryout and delivery frequently during quarantine and fortunately many have been able to stay open, though not for dine-in.

 

[NoLine]

His actions don’t affect my opinion of local pizza joints. I doubt we have similar tastes anyway. F&J for the win if I’m going cheese. Their pepperoni is greasy as hell so I’ll reserve my opinion there for now. The speciality pizzas are nothing to write home about, but their subs and sides are excellent.

There are tons of family owned restaurants around here. We’ve ordered carryout and delivery frequently during quarantine and fortunately many have been able to stay open, though not for dine-in.

I really feel for those businesses, I’ve seen a few do well and a few others go belly up during this period. Hopefully those that are open can continue to weather the storm


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[RealPretendPsychic]

I really feel for those businesses, I’ve seen a few do well and a few others go belly up during this period. Hopefully those that are open can continue to weather the storm


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I live near Hershey and the big draw is HersheyPark and concerts/shows. It’s been a ghost town. Stores and restaurants are starting to open this month and next, but a number have already announced permanent closures. It was a rapidly expanding area, so hopefully that will continue when this is behind us.

 

[Hoosiermess]

Look. I’ve lost everything because of this shut down. I understand I’m in the minority, but my life has been ruined. I am a sole prop so I don’t get PPP and I can’t apply for unemployment yet. So I went 2 weeks without work due to tornadoes and now 3 months.
Imagine going 3 months without work.... how would that affect you?? I am not inconvenienced, I have been *****. So go ahead, keep the economy shut down, forget about the people none of these rules apply too.... the little guy. I doubt we will reopen. But hey. Stay at home, you do you. Glad you still have a job? I don’t and it’s not my fault. AT ALL. I have been FORCED to close. If anyone wants the perspective of what it’s really like for a small business owner who somehow doesn’t apply for any relief, come at me.

As far as I can tell you are all very lucky and no one in this thread has been financially ruined; I have. I was doing very well before the shut down, now I’ve lost everything. I had savings, I had everything. Now I have nothing. And for what? Tell me seriously.... for what?

I'm sorry to read this but in some small way if feel your pain. We weren't shut down as long and we did get some PPP money (thankful to be incorporated) but I'm not sure we'll make it too much longer. I was hoping to sell my business last year but I held on thinking I could beef up the value a little bit to lose a little less in the sale but the AG industry is a fickle ***** and 2020... Either way man, this hit me in the feels. I sincerely hope for the best for you.

 

[Phil75070]

Pretty much back to normal at the course today. There was apparently a conference call yesterday that the GM was on and we're back to two to a cart, no restrictions. The markings on the floors in both the pro shop and grill promoting social distancing are still there as are the plexiglass screens between customer and employee. What I don't know at this point is if some of the precautions like sanitizing the range balls and wiping down the carts are still in place. I bring my own wipes either way.

 

[MagicSpell]

Death per capita relies on the total death number for the numerator. Therefore, whether there is a shutdown or not is absolutely relevant.

I'm sure I'm wasting my time, but let me give you some help on calculating the mortality rates...
The mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of those afflicted (infected). This is the percentage of deaths due to the virus. To get a death per capita the calculated percentage can be multiplied by the rate of infections per capita. So, as I said, the infection rate can be affected by a shutdown but the mortality rate is not affected. The virus does not change how lethal it is based on how many "catch" it. It may only change the number of deaths based on WHO catches it (if it is intrinsically more deadly to a portion of the population).

 

[PuffChippy]

Can we ditch this thread? It veers way too political and I like this forum because that is not here.

I’m sure this thread will die of natural causes soon enough. People are pretty much over the whole covid apocalypse thing and they seem ready to move on to the next Earth destroying crisis. Plus we have an election coming up and at some point we’ll need to get back to hating each other for all the other non-virus related problems in the world.

 

[NoLine]

I live near Hershey and the big draw is HersheyPark and concerts/shows. It’s been a ghost town. Stores and restaurants are starting to open this month and next, but a number have already announced permanent closures. It was a rapidly expanding area, so hopefully that will continue when this is behind us.

I know, good friend of mine makes his living these days on residuals and touring (had some hits in the 80’s). He and his band had a 80+ city tour of North America and EMEA wiped out by this, he is cool but his crew gets wiped out when tours get cancelled.


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[LICC]

I'm sure I'm wasting my time, but let me give you some help on calculating the mortality rates...
The mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of those afflicted (infected). This is the percentage of deaths due to the virus. To get a death per capita the calculated percentage can be multiplied by the rate of infections per capita. So, as I said, the infection rate can be affected by a shutdown but the mortality rate is not affected. The virus does not change how lethal it is based on how many "catch" it. It may only change the number of deaths based on WHO catches it (if it is intrinsically more deadly to a portion of the population).

Determining how dangerous is a virus, you need take into account how easily it spreads, and how deadly it is once it infects. Just looking at death per infection doesn't give you an effective measurement. Looking at deaths per capita gives you an effective measurement because that inherently incorporates how many people in the population both were infected and died from it. I can't tell if you just aren't able to understand this or you are spinning because you know you made a silly comment.

 

[rollin]

Look. I’ve lost everything because of this shut down. I understand I’m in the minority, but my life has been ruined. I am a sole prop so I don’t get PPP and I can’t apply for unemployment yet. So I went 2 weeks without work due to tornadoes and now 3 months.
Imagine going 3 months without work.... how would that affect you?? I am not inconvenienced, I have been *****. So go ahead, keep the economy shut down, forget about the people none of these rules apply too.... the little guy. I doubt we will reopen. But hey. Stay at home, you do you. Glad you still have a job? I don’t and it’s not my fault. AT ALL. I have been FORCED to close. If anyone wants the perspective of what it’s really like for a small business owner who somehow doesn’t apply for any relief, come at me.

As far as I can tell you are all very lucky and no one in this thread has been financially ruined; I have. I was doing very well before the shut down, now I’ve lost everything. I had savings, I had everything. Now I have nothing. And for what? Tell me seriously.... for what?

let me first say being a former business prop that not only do I understand but I also can feel your pain/frustrations and concern. i wouldn't wish whats happening to you on anyone. I truly do hope your future works out well somehow and all I can say is that i wish you luck going forward..

here is the part you not going to appreciate. You ask ..."what for?".
Though not necessarily a direct answer there is something I can say in trying to make some sense of it. I lost a cousin and also a dear friend. Both of them family men and are now gone forever and leave behind devastated family wive's and kids. Thier husbands/fathers are now gone and not only are they gone forever but in addition the families have to now figure out how to financially survive moving forward. There are so many thousands who can repeat the story i just told. Conversely to what you mention and ask......those people might ask or say "why ddint we shut things down sooner?" and "maybe my husband or maybe my dad would still be alive.

these are not easy discussions. You can view this and perhaps feel "well, at least im alive and still here". Thats a whole lot more than the families of my friend and also cousin left behind can say. Id bet they would trade places with you in a heartbeat as they might currently question why things didnt close down sooner.

Im not suggesting what is or was so right or wrong and i understand things are/were different in different cities and states. Although in the beginning no one really knew what it would be like. But many didint want to take the gamble and have a NYC on thier hands nor wait till it got to be one before acting. I know none of this relieves any your troubles and again I feel for you, and perhaps some places did make poor decisions and you are a financial casualty of that. But your alive to complain and concern over your troubles. I am sure your circle of family and loved ones would be feeling much worse right now had you contracted the virus and been one of many more death casualties if your area never closed. Or you yourself would be feeling worse having lost someone closest to you (perhaps a spouse) had your area never closed. You see without knowing what was going to happen virus wise, they or you might then been asking why they didnt close instead of now asking what for.

All that said. Its unfair I understand and frustrating. Good luck going forward and i hope you find a way to get help you deserve and somehow get back on your business horse again.

 

[JDax]

I'm sure I'm wasting my time, but let me give you some help on calculating the mortality rates...
The mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of those afflicted (infected). This is the percentage of deaths due to the virus. To get a death per capita the calculated percentage can be multiplied by the rate of infections per capita. So, as I said, the infection rate can be affected by a shutdown but the mortality rate is not affected. The virus does not change how lethal it is based on how many "catch" it. It may only change the number of deaths based on WHO catches it (if it is intrinsically more deadly to a portion of the population).

I once tried to explain this also... Wasn’t successful.

 

[MagicSpell]

I once tried to explain this also... Wasn’t successful.

Apparently we don't understand or believe the standard calculations are "silly". I'll just have to concede at this point that @LICC appears to only want to be contrary just to be contrary. We can't teach those that refuse to learn.

 

[JB]

You are comparing other contagious diseases in which we never did a shutdown, to a very highly contagious and deadly disease in which we shut down. Without shutdowns, we could have been looking at 70,000+ deaths in the 54 and under age group, based on comparisons of other countries in which non-shutdown rates were 10x higher.

7,000 dead during a shutdown. Non-existent? Wow.

Where did someone say non-existent? Despite throwing out calculations, I have asked at least 10 times now to please show the data on Americans under the age of 50 that supports these baseless claims of multipliers.

Nobody has said deaths did not matter or that this was not an illness people should worry about. In fact if you read through this thread, you will see that I have been the exact opposite of that, including very serious about taking precautions for those in harm.

But these baseless numbers that continue to get thrown out about 10x and 20x and continuing to get asked the same question about support is becoming exhausting. Open and good dialogue and debate is great. Trying to tell people how to post, when at the same time ignoring simple requests is at best odd, and at worst just trolling.

Everybody has a different opinion on how to best work with in the craziness, despite everybody wanting the same outcome. Instead of arguing to argue, let’s work on the positive of supplying data when dealing with something as horrible as death, economy, etc.

 

[MSEASU]

Death per capita relies on the total death number for the numerator. Therefore, whether there is a shutdown or not is absolutely relevant.

No it does not. You are clearly trolling. Here :
Total deaths/ total infected (unknown)
It works with or without shutdown. That is the beauty of math.

 

[LICC]

Where did someone say non-existent? Despite throwing out calculations, I have asked at least 10 times now to please show the data on Americans under the age of 50 that supports these baseless claims of multipliers.

Nobody has said deaths did not matter or that this was not an illness people should worry about. In fact if you read through this thread, you will see that I have been the exact opposite of that, including very serious about taking precautions for those in harm.

But these baseless numbers that continue to get thrown out about 10x and 20x and continuing to get asked the same question about support is becoming exhausting. Open and good dialogue and debate is great. Trying to tell people how to post, when at the same time ignoring simple requests is at best odd, and at worst just trolling.

Everybody has a different opinion on how to best work with in the craziness, despite everybody wanting the same outcome. Instead of arguing to argue, let’s work on the positive of supplying data when dealing with something as horrible as death, economy, etc.

Your exact words: “I am still searching around the net for data on those under 50 in the US, because everything I read is telling me it is virtually non-existent.”

 

[JB]

Your exact words: “I am still searching around the net for data on those under 50 in the US, because everything I read is telling me it is virtually non-existent.”

So still nothing on the question?

The data is non-existent...

And I have asked the same question repeatedly because you keep bringing numbers that seem way out of left field. If you don’t have the answer and it was a guess, that’s cool, just say so.

 

[MSEASU]

So still nothing on the question?

The data is non-existent...

And I have asked the same question repeatedly because you keep bringing numbers that seem way out of left field. If you don’t have the answer and it was a guess, that’s cool, just say so.

This is him throughout this thread

 

[Sean]

I knows this goes against the narrative, but the Daily Caller reported the following:

"A Nobel Prize-winning scientist from Stanford believes that the nationwide, 3-month lockdown that devastated the American economy actually cost more lives than it saved. Prof Michael Levitt, a British-American-Israeli who shared the Nobel prize for chemistry in 2013, believes the flawed models by Nile Ferguson of Imperial College, upon which most nations and states based their lockdown strategies, led to a global “panic virus” that spread to political leaders and cost many more deaths from “social damage,” including domestic abuse, divorces, alcoholism. “And then you have those who were not treated for other conditions,” says Levitt.

Health analyst Richard Baehr says, “A growing share of the excess deaths are not from COVID diagnosed patients but from heart conditions, drug overdoses, suicides. We could call these lockdown deaths.”

 

[xThor]

Here is the updated report here in Kentucky. While it shows the majority of deaths are with the highest aged, the 20-49 year old range accounts for nearly half of all cases.
That said - 270,000 tests, 10,000 positive cases.
I am not worried that this would kill me, but I also don’t want to catch it (acknowledging that it appears less contagious than thought as well). Myself and my family are taking basic precautions (washing hands, cleaning surfaces, wearing masks if in heavy people traffic areas), but we are also not letting this stop us from going out and supporting our favorite local shops and restaurants.

I think most here locally are ready for things to continue to open up, and based on the data I fully support everything returning and opening up.