Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact
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Where that report is fatally flawed is that it uses NY as a base.Mortality Rate by Age Group - it's a month old
Coronavirus Deaths by Age: How It’s Like (and Not Like) Other Disease
Dismissing Covid-19 as something that only endangers those who were going to die soon anyway doesn’t make a lot of statistical sense.www.bloomberg.com
The NY Commissioner of health has already ceded that they're also listing "probables," "presumed" and "likely would not have died if not for the pandemic" as Covid-19 deaths.
Also, there's Governor Cuomo's seemingly reckless executive order that nursing homes were forbidden to disallow Covid-19 positive patients.
He declares now that he was following federal policy but the fed policy was not an order and it had the very important stipulation that the recommendation was only for nursing facilities with the capacity and ability to quarantine positive patients.
Nowhere in Cuomo's executive order did that stipulation exist. His was a hard order to accept all and for quite a while, he ignored the desperate pleas by nursing home administrators for repeal.
So considering most states presumably count confirmed cases and most states did not pen perilous executive orders wrt nursing homes, using NY as any base to extrapolate numbers reflecting the rest of the country is a non-starter.
FWIW, there's some figures offered here. I haven't cross referenced but there seems to be some support for 0.26% considering the CDC's recently released estimates.
The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans...
reason.com
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I've gotten a couple looks. Canned response is usually something like, "nah it's bird flu, you're okay."
But bringing in the National Guard is frowned upon, didn't you hear? Heaven forbid they help protect those local businesses who are being looted
GolfLivesMatter
Well-known member
I recall the good old days of arguing over blades vs. CBs.
GolfLivesMatter
Well-known member
If you don't like all the BS that's going on, get involved in the 2020 election. It's obvious that there are a LOT of folks on here who are beyond capable to campaign to stop the madness.
Where that report is fatally flawed is that it uses NY as a base.
The NY Commissioner of health has already ceded that they're also listing "probables," "presumed" and "likely would not have died if not for the pandemic" as Covid-19 deaths.
Also, there's Governor Cuomo's seemingly reckless executive order that nursing homes were forbidden to disallow Covid-19 positive patients.
He declares now that he was following federal policy but the fed policy was not an order and it had the very important stipulation that the recommendation was only for nursing facilities with the capacity and ability to quarantine positive patients.
Nowhere in Cuomo's executive order did that stipulation exist. His was a hard order to accept all and for quite a while, he ignored the desperate pleas by nursing home administrators for repeal.
So considering most states presumably count confirmed cases and most states did not pen perilous executive orders wrt nursing homes, using NY as any base to extrapolate numbers reflecting the rest of the country is a non-starter.
FWIW, there's some figures offered here. I haven't cross referenced but there seems to be some support for 0.26% considering the CDC's recently released estimates.
The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans...
I think you missed the point of what we were going after with that article-- we were looking for the mortality rate per age group, which the first part of the article discusses and is shown in the first graph, which is based on data from the CDC at the time.
Then, as you point out, the author compares Covid to other diseases and starts using hypotheticals and NYC data -- we weren't really interested in that argument. As the author states:
"In order to use the age distribution so far to give a sense of the risk posed by Covid-19 relative to other bad things that can happen to people, I’m going to start with 100,000 deaths from the disease over the course of the year as the almost-certain-to-be-exceeded low-end scenario. For the high end, I’ll take the 0.23% of New York City residents who have died from the disease so far and multiply that by the U.S. population, which gets me to a bit above 750,000."
Was not using the article to show a comparison with other diseases - only the mortality rate per age group - and this article is already a month old and 36k more people have died since that time.
As to the actual body count, there is plenty of discussion of over and undercounting - you see arguments on both sides - you can't just show one side of the argument and ignore another. We just don't know the exact number of deaths at this point and probably never will.
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that still happens. This thread can be easily avoided!
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Is three putting a symptom? Since golf has returned, my normally unreliable short game has degenerated into a train smash.
I hear you and didn't miss the point. I understand the original message. But within the same article it highlights faulty info and that always strikes a chord with me.
How much of the CDC's calculations are skewed by NY's numbers? NY's numbers are large enough that they may affect national averages.
When NY's coding is in question as is their handling/lack of shielding of the elderly population, any assumptions to morbidity wrt age based upon their numbers, even if/when using them as a high point, is terribly flawed.
They simply shouldn't be used in any measurable capacity for any productive point to be made.
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This is all I could find for NC relating to age. The link -"click here" for more demographics stats- only listed known cases as far as I could tell, not deaths.
LICC
Well-known member
It seems fairly consistent overall that around 10% of Covid related deaths in various locations have been in the 54 and under age groups.Where that report is fatally flawed is that it uses NY as a base.
The NY Commissioner of health has already ceded that they're also listing "probables," "presumed" and "likely would not have died if not for the pandemic" as Covid-19 deaths.
Also, there's Governor Cuomo's seemingly reckless executive order that nursing homes were forbidden to disallow Covid-19 positive patients.
He declares now that he was following federal policy but the fed policy was not an order and it had the very important stipulation that the recommendation was only for nursing facilities with the capacity and ability to quarantine positive patients.
Nowhere in Cuomo's executive order did that stipulation exist. His was a hard order to accept all and for quite a while, he ignored the desperate pleas by nursing home administrators for repeal.
So considering most states presumably count confirmed cases and most states did not pen perilous executive orders wrt nursing homes, using NY as any base to extrapolate numbers reflecting the rest of the country is a non-starter.
FWIW, there's some figures offered here. I haven't cross referenced but there seems to be some support for 0.26% considering the CDC's recently released estimates.
The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans...
LICC
Well-known member
In NYC the problem is not the lack of the National Guard. It is that the politicians have not allowed the NYPD to use its full resources to stop the violence. The NYPD could handle it if permitted.I've gotten a couple looks. Canned response is usually something like, "nah it's bird flu, you're okay."
But bringing in the National Guard is frowned upon, didn't you hear? Heaven forbid they help protect those local businesses who are being looted
LICC
Well-known member
So you believe hospitals were committing fraud in recording causes of death? As to the NY nursing homes, that would skew the numbers toward higher age groups than otherwise.
So CDC should delete NY Deaths from stats? No, don't think so.
Most recent articles from the health community believe deaths are undercounted. Next time I read another one, I will post it.
But if you look at the article, it basically said those under 50 have a very low death rate, which is the question to whiich the post was responding.
So the way to do the chart to satisfy curiousity would be to calculate the graph with and without NY deaths and see if there is a statistical difference.
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On this mortality rate issue, both sides are right and wrong as there is a difference between "case mortality rate" and "mortality rate".
"Case fatality rate, also called case fatality risk or case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease course or outcome), where comparatively high rates are indicative of relatively poor outcomes. "
"This calculation differs from that used for mortality rate, another measure of death for a given population. Although number of deaths serves as the numerator for both measures, mortality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the population at risk during a certain time frame. As a true rate, it estimates the risk of dying of a certain disease. Hence, the two measures provide different information."
Source: https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate
"Case fatality rate, also called case fatality risk or case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease course or outcome), where comparatively high rates are indicative of relatively poor outcomes. "
"This calculation differs from that used for mortality rate, another measure of death for a given population. Although number of deaths serves as the numerator for both measures, mortality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the population at risk during a certain time frame. As a true rate, it estimates the risk of dying of a certain disease. Hence, the two measures provide different information."
Source: https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate
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Fraud is kind of a strong term. Let’s say you could reasonably call something A or B but if you call it A you get a bucket of cash versus nothing if you call it B. Do you think that bucket of cash will influence people and organizations to call it A more than they might have otherwise? I’ve been in enough of those kinds of meetings to know any org would pull out all the stops to maximize A in any way possible this side of legal.
Local Impact ... disconnect when economic pain meets few illnesses
www.nytimes.com
A Striking Disconnect on the Virus: Economic Pain With Little Illness (Published 2020)
In corners of the U.S. facing financial ruin, but where the coronavirus hasn’t arrived in full, an analysis of economic and infection data helps explain why some see reopening as long overdue.
Around 10% is rather loose approximation. Within only a few minutes of searching I found this data directly from the CDC (which you seem to favor for your claims).
From that data, 7.4% of reported Covid deaths are 54 years or younger (data from the CDC and published by the National Center for Health Statistics).
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Around 10% is rather loose approximation. Within only a few minutes of searching I found this data directly from the CDC (which you seem to favor for your claims).
"Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis, and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more."
View attachment 8947571
From that data, 7.4% of reported Covid deaths are 54 years or younger (data from the CDC and published by the National Center for Health Statistics).
This is what I found searching around. I wonder where that compares to other contagious ailments? I know total number (under 54) is interesting when you compare to a number of others.
Supply chain and demand are killing me. I’m looking for a push cart, bikes, a trampoline, and a Nintendo switch. Everything is out of stock!
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Furniture is nuts right now. Months out for delivery due to shutdowns.
Dallas County, Texas impact - almost 300 daily cases on 3 days this week representing record highs.
10 deaths on Friday - only 1 under 60 yr old
But the good news is that there appears to be more than sufficient hospital capacity
The numbers of hospitalizations, intensive-care admissions and emergency room visits for suspected cases of COVID-19 remains flat in Dallas County, officials said.
The county’s hospitals have maintained a daily census of about 300 COVID-19 patients this week, [Judge[ Jenkins’ office reported.
Of people who have been hospitalized with the coronavirus in Dallas County, two-thirds have been under age 65, and about half have had a high-risk chronic health condition.
Over 80% of hospitalized patients who reported their employment to the county are “critical infrastructure workers,” which the county defines as people who work in health care, transportation, food and agriculture, public works, finance, communications, clergy, first-responders and other essential functions.
10 deaths on Friday - only 1 under 60 yr old
But the good news is that there appears to be more than sufficient hospital capacity
The numbers of hospitalizations, intensive-care admissions and emergency room visits for suspected cases of COVID-19 remains flat in Dallas County, officials said.
The county’s hospitals have maintained a daily census of about 300 COVID-19 patients this week, [Judge[ Jenkins’ office reported.
Of people who have been hospitalized with the coronavirus in Dallas County, two-thirds have been under age 65, and about half have had a high-risk chronic health condition.
Over 80% of hospitalized patients who reported their employment to the county are “critical infrastructure workers,” which the county defines as people who work in health care, transportation, food and agriculture, public works, finance, communications, clergy, first-responders and other essential functions.
Oregon numbers by age
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