Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

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JB

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Mad_Brad

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Afternoon staff meeting went like this:
"You have all heard about us closing the college right?"
They mean close it but still let everyone in. No restrictions. Wanna watch netflix all day? Come hang out at the college.
"Brad, you are assigned to maintenance."
YESSSSSSSS
"Zygmond, you take over Brad's duties."
"Old man, keep being old, stuck in your ways, and refuse to do anything but busywork."

Maintenance will be alright. Prefer doing that most of the time anyways. Just please don't snow, I don't want to shovel.
 

BigDill

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While I dont agree with the company considering themselves vital, I find the headline and article body so click baitish vs what was really said.
It is, and I was cognizant of the source and debated posting it, but I figured that the quote sent in response to the article from GameStop made it worthwhile. If anyone has been in a GameStop recently, it’s mind bending that they think they are an essential service. Plus asking local police to call corporate counsel is, in itself, incredible.
 

Jeff Spicoli

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I actually support the idea of places like golf courses being kept open, at a limited capacity. No packed ranges, no packed putting greens, limited access to pro shop, etc. Spread out the tee times.

While I agree that we need to be as careful as possible, we also need to maintain some form of sanity through this.
I would say too no carts if possible and inverted or raised cups
 

Iceman!

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Well Illinois got shut down today however because we are a Transactional and Financial Printer, our business is considered “Essential” and we are exempt from closing. We got the message from our company the minute the Governor started talking.
 

chile

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While I dont agree with the company considering themselves vital, I find the headline and article body so click baitish vs what was really said.
game stop is pretty shaky with it's employees...idk how people work for them
 

obedt

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PR’s been shut down since Sunday, although I’ve been working from home. It’s been difficult with my kid being off from school and demanding the necessary attention. Network traffic rose sharply and there’s a lot of pressure since telecom is an essential service. This after an operation Jan 30, me being on a strict diet in Feb, then being quarantined from everyone including my family for a week starting March 4.

Shouldn’t complain, I have a job, we’re getting paid. Just a rough stretch where I haven’t had a chance to decompress at all.
 

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Cases in America nearly quadrupled from yesterday to today - 5k to 20k.

Here we go....
 

Danimal

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PR’s been shut down since Sunday, although I’ve been working from home. It’s been difficult with my kid being off from school and demanding the necessary attention. Network traffic rose sharply and there’s a lot of pressure since telecom is an essential service. This after an operation Jan 30, me being on a strict diet in Feb, then being quarantined from everyone including my family for a week starting March 4.

Shouldn’t complain, I have a job, we’re getting paid. Just a rough stretch where I haven’t had a chance to decompress at all.
I have been wondering about the strain to the network with all of these kids working from home at the same time. It will have a huge impact On networks.
 

Jman

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I have little doubt that schools across the country are going to "call" the remainder of the year. I know many are talking about distance learning, but realistically there is a segment of kids still left behind there since not all have internet access.

We (OK) got approval today to not have to take end of year tests, which tells me they are clearing the way for this to happen.
 

BigDill

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I have little doubt that schools across the country are going to "call" the remainder of the year. I know many are talking about distance learning, but realistically there is a segment of kids still left behind there since not all have internet access.

We (OK) got approval today to not have to take end of year tests, which tells me they are clearing the way for this to happen.
Everything I am hearing from teachers and schools indicate the same down here in Florida. My kids teachers, to their credit, are efforting the hell out of teaching the kids as best they can under the circumstances. But this isn’t a short term plan from the infrastructure set up. There are built in days here for things like hurricanes that would have resolved a week or two. My kids are loaded down for a month and change with work. That’s May. No reason to bring them all back for another month. Plus, SAT’s (their end of year grade aptitude tests) are cancelled.
 

JDax

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FEF52BBC-DB4B-48AB-BEC6-ED4DDF29CFBE.jpeg
👀... Yes and No now carry the same odds, WOW... No has been the betting favorite.
 

JDax

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I saw that blood type article too, but there were so many holes in their logic. As a person with Type O negative blood I liked the idea of it, but the study was greatly lacking.

I also then learned that @JB doesn't know his blood type. Is that a common thing? I thought most people knew their blood type.
I’m O- but I only remember that because in College when the local blood bank got low they called me all the time...
 

Reframmellator

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This is long, but I attempt to put some numbers together and I felt I needed to explain them.

Lots of comments here and seemingly everywhere about testing and spread. I was curious, so I went to the CDC website. When engineers are curious, especially when they want to try to understand how big the problem is, they often graph the data, which is what I did. I came away more convinced than ever that we need to flatten the total cases curve, and that we may be able to do it with really aggressive physical distancing.

Here's my graph. The scale misrepresents the severity of the rate of increase in new cases.

US CDC Data 200320.png

The bars are cumulative test and infection numbers and you read those on the left axis. The lines are percentages and you read those on the right axis.

The orange rectangle is the recent period for which the CDC says test data are incomplete - both number of tests administered and positive results.

It looks to me like by mid-February, we got really good at identifying likely COVID-19 patients without a test. Look at the high daily positive results represented by the green line.

In early March, about the time we passed 5,000 cumulative tests, the daily percent positives started to go down. I think this was because test kits became more available and it became easier to qualify for a test. It also looks like, from the last daily numbers the CDC believes are complete, the latest tests are showing 4% of those tested have the virus. That is similar to the results from testing in South Korea, if I remember correctly.

Now these numbers below probably overestimate by a factor of two. Not everyone gets sick on the same day, and not everyone will be in the hospital permanently.

Numbers I've seen say 150 million Americans could get the virus in the next eight months. Earlier months will be lower, and later months will be higher. Let's pick a number that would be somewhere in the back half of the epidemic - 20 million new cases in a month.

If the virus spreads, 20 million Americans contract it in the next month, and 16% of those are serious (requiring hospitalization), that is 3,200,000 Americans requiring hospitalization. According to the American Hospital Association, there are 924,000 beds in US hospitals. Assuming 80% of those beds are normally occupied, that means about 185,000 beds are available for 6 million serious virus cases. A little over 10% of those beds are in intensive care units of all kinds. At the same occupancy levels, about 19,000 ICU beds are available for COVID-19.

The health care system is overwhelmed.

If physical distancing is 90% effective, 320,000 Americans require serious case care, and the current system is still overwhelmed. Now we will build more hospital beds and ventilators quickly, but we can't increase, let alone replace, medical professionals that quickly. If we can keep the number of new cases under 1 million per month - that's 33,000/day and a 95% reduction gained from physical distancing - we have a shot at keeping it within the limits of our healthcare system when staffing is considered.

To get from 15,000 new cases per day to 33,000 new cases per day in eight months means limiting the spreading rate of increase to 10% per month.

I wonder whether that is sustainable socially and economically. But perhaps frequent enough testing to ensure early detection and isolation gets the transmission rates down to manageable levels without shutting down our economy for months.

I'm praying that one or more of the treatments under development proves to be effective.
 

Vortex

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College football kickoff is 170 days away and will likely be delayed. Thanks CHINA bats.
 

JDax

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This is long, but I attempt to put some numbers together and I felt I needed to explain them.

Lots of comments here and seemingly everywhere about testing and spread. I was curious, so I went to the CDC website. When engineers are curious, especially when they want to try to understand how big the problem is, they often graph the data, which is what I did. I came away more convinced than ever that we need to flatten the total cases curve, and that we may be able to do it with really aggressive physical distancing.

Here's my graph. The scale misrepresents the severity of the rate of increase in new cases.

View attachment 8932924

The bars are cumulative test and infection numbers and you read those on the left axis. The lines are percentages and you read those on the right axis.

The orange rectangle is the recent period for which the CDC says test data are incomplete - both number of tests administered and positive results.

It looks to me like by mid-February, we got really good at identifying likely COVID-19 patients without a test. Look at the high daily positive results represented by the green line.

In early March, about the time we passed 5,000 cumulative tests, the daily percent positives started to go down. I think this was because test kits became more available and it became easier to qualify for a test. It also looks like, from the last daily numbers the CDC believes are complete, the latest tests are showing 4% of those tested have the virus. That is similar to the results from testing in South Korea, if I remember correctly.

Now these numbers below probably overestimate by a factor of two. Not everyone gets sick on the same day, and not everyone will be in the hospital permanently.

Numbers I've seen say 150 million Americans could get the virus in the next eight months. Earlier months will be lower, and later months will be higher. Let's pick a number that would be somewhere in the back half of the epidemic - 20 million new cases in a month.

If the virus spreads, 20 million Americans contract it in the next month, and 16% of those are serious (requiring hospitalization), that is 3,200,000 Americans requiring hospitalization. According to the American Hospital Association, there are 924,000 beds in US hospitals. Assuming 80% of those beds are normally occupied, that means about 185,000 beds are available for 6 million serious virus cases. A little over 10% of those beds are in intensive care units of all kinds. At the same occupancy levels, about 19,000 ICU beds are available for COVID-19.

The health care system is overwhelmed.

If physical distancing is 90% effective, 320,000 Americans require serious case care, and the current system is still overwhelmed. Now we will build more hospital beds and ventilators quickly, but we can't increase, let alone replace, medical professionals that quickly. If we can keep the number of new cases under 1 million per month - that's 33,000/day and a 95% reduction gained from physical distancing - we have a shot at keeping it within the limits of our healthcare system when staffing is considered.

To get from 15,000 new cases per day to 33,000 new cases per day in eight months means limiting the spreading rate of increase to 10% per month.

I wonder whether that is sustainable socially and economically. But perhaps frequent enough testing to ensure early detection and isolation gets the transmission rates down to manageable levels without shutting down our economy for months.

I'm praying that one or more of the treatments under development proves to be effective.
The Diamond Princess was a perfect petri dish for infection, yet 82% were never infected.

Exposure doesn’t lead to infection 100% of the time. 150 Million infected Americans would be 40.5% of the American population.
 

JDax

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Northerner

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College football kickoff is 170 days away and will likely be delayed. Thanks CHINA bats.
Bats had nothing to do with it. their leader could have made a phone call, but chose not to.
 
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Alez367

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It looks like some schools here in San Diego have begun calling it for the remainder of current school year. Pretty crazy to think about it.
 

cbaker2882

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Andddd right on time I’ve heard first hand for a couple different places (NY/Miami) that supplies are extremely limited already, and in the case of Miami, the team of doctors they had assigned to work this are already cut in half from doctors contracting it.

but don’t worry overrunning the health system isn’t a concern. FFS we are only getting started here and it’s bad. Thanks hoarders.
 

Nate

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Andddd right on time I’ve heard first hand for a couple different places (NY/Miami) that supplies are extremely limited already, and in the case of Miami, the team of doctors they had assigned to work this are already cut in half from doctors contracting it.

but don’t worry overrunning the health system isn’t a concern. FFS we are only getting started here and it’s bad. Thanks hoarders.
EBay.com
#Merica
 

cbaker2882

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fuffle master

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I have little doubt that schools across the country are going to "call" the remainder of the year. I know many are talking about distance learning, but realistically there is a segment of kids still left behind there since not all have internet access.

We (OK) got approval today to not have to take end of year tests, which tells me they are clearing the way for this to happen.
Has your area discussed lawsuits?

We and other schools had already setup to go distant learning, but were stopped by the PDE when the fear came out that any student without internet or on a Special Needs program could and probably would sue the district for not providing the same education to all.

They are trying to get a work around as it is becoming much clearer that school is not going back any time soon.
 
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