Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

[chile]

He said it COULD reach 25 million if we don't shelter in place. California has over 40 million residents. There were already at least 10 counties with shelter in place directives. I live in California and welcome the new directive. I don't want this virus, do you?

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I coulda phrased that better...I'm not sure the question about my desire for the virus was needed at the end, tho...

 

[milehighgolfer]

If the statistic is true, he is saying that roughly 63% of the population of CA. That is crazy, and I don’t see how it is possible. Italy has about ~41k (per the JH Map) with a population of ~60M. And Italy is considered to be the worst at this point.

Another example of someone using the doomsday numbers instead of the actual math.

 

[Stryker]

I just can’t get there with whole Italy angle ...

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The math just doesn’t support it, even when you take into the fact that Italy is 7-10 days ahead of the US in the curve.

Yes in the number of total cases the Italy v. US charts appear on the same trajectory, however the death rate is very different when comparing day by day. With the US continuing to drop as more people are tested and cases confirmed.

Of the 177 reported deaths in the US, 74 are in Washington State (41.8%), if you agree that Washington State is an outlier, then the death rate here is in line with South Korea so far.

Washington is only that high because a nursing home there got infected and an alarming high percentage of residents succumbed to the disease. They are of course the higher risk category. That is why the percentage of death was so high early and has been decreasing since even as confirmed cases increase.

 

[Nate]

One of the alarming parts of the virus from recent reports is the long term impacts to lung function, even for healthy people. That concerns me.

How would they know that already....just weeks/months into this?

 

[Jeff Spicoli]

How would they know that already....just weeks into this?

 

[JDax]

This is being lost way too much by people hung up on mortality rates.

Isn’t the mortality rate the key indicator of the severity of any Epidemic or Pandemic?

 

[chile]

How would they know that already....just weeks/months into this?

I would assume from data obtained from the first cases in China/elsewhere...I think the first reported case was 31 Dec? Idk if 3 months is enough to forecast levels of severity...

 

[JDax]

Is there any point in testing low risk or asymptomatic people at this time? If the plan was to control the spread, then sure. But by the time it all got up and running, people who didn’t know they had it have been spreading it around. With most areas in some form of lockdown, I just don’t see the point other than to collect data.

Also, after hearing that the deaths in Italy (pop. ~60M) have surpassed China (pop. 1.4B) today, I have no doubt that China severely underreported the infected and related deaths.

Zero chance that the numbers that China has reported are accurate.

 

[jvbart]

I just can’t get there with whole Italy angle ...

View attachment 8932706
The math just doesn’t support it, even when you take into the fact that Italy is 7-10 days ahead of the US in the curve.

Yes in the number of total cases the Italy v. US charts appear on the same trajectory, however the death rate is very different when comparing day by day. With the US continuing to drop as more people are tested and cases confirmed.

Of the 177 reported deaths in the US, 74 are in Washington State (41.8%), if you agree that Washington State is an outlier, then the death rate here is in line with South Korea so far.

The thing is the virus isn’t that deadly when we have the capacity to treat it. The mortality rate skyrockets when health systems are overrun and we run out of capacity and equipment to treat people. Not just for at risk populations but for healthy people and especially healthcare workers as theirs evidence that exposure to high dosage of the virus makes it much more dangerous. The fear right now is our response was so slow that we lost control of the rate of spread which pushes us over the limit of our healthcare system. This causes fatalities to spike for other things as well as people can’t get treatment for any other condition. This is why it’s so important for everyone to be as vigilant we can to slow the spread of the virus. I hope we can pull it off.

 

[Jman]

Zero chance that the numbers that China has reported are accurate.

Probably little chance most of what they have released is accurate.

 

[Jman]

The thing is the virus isn’t that deadly when we have the capacity to treat it. The mortality rate skyrockets when health systems are overrun and we run out of capacity and equipment to treat people. Not just for at risk populations but for healthy people and especially healthcare workers as theirs evidence that exposure to high dosage of the virus makes it much more dangerous. The fear right now is our response was so slow that we lost control of the rate of spread which pushes us over the limit of our healthcare system. This causes fatalities to spike for other things as well as people can’t get treatment for any other condition. This is why it’s so important for everyone to be as vigilant we can to slow the spread of the virus. I hope we can pull it off.

THIS THIS THIS THIS!!!

Too much focus on the mortality rate when THIS is the real issue and the WHY we are reacting the way we are.

 

[J-Pin]

I coulda phrased that better...I'm not sure the question about my desire for the virus was needed at the end, tho...

I could of phrased my last staement a little better. It wasn't directed specially to you. Sorry...

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[Canadan]

Does seem a bit irresponsible. It's one thing coming from some fringe element, but the governor of a state?

California Governor Newsom is trying to save lives and deserves respect for doing so.

Fear mongering is not the job of a governor right now. Not even a little bit.

 

[BigDill]

How would they know that already....just weeks/months into this?

Long term was perhaps the wrong phrasing. I should have said that the lung damage does not always heal after symptoms subside, like with the Flu. This is closer to MERS which causes the “ground glass” effect on scans. From what I read, lung cells which function to keep the lungs clear die and shed after becoming infected with the virus. It creates a “honeycomb” effect within the lung, causing reduced function and gas exchange.

 

[Nate]

When this is all over I would love to know how many were smokers compared to non-smokers.

 

[Canadan]

One of the things I fear the most is the confusion based apathy from people. They click on the news and read a lot of BS, and then shrug it off like it's fear mongering or pushing an agenda to make Trump look bad (honestly pick a narrative there's like 50 out there).

Then, they don't take the depths of the virus seriously and we're stuck watching their terrible decisions while we adequately self-quarantine. Honestly? I struggle to blame someone for not taking this seriously after going to facebook, twitter, news sites, etc etc and reading the absolute smut that comes from it.

I want people to take it seriously enough to end this horrible experience, but my faith in it is quite low at this point. Don't believe me? Hit me with that beach live view again, please.

 

[Stemmy66]

My point was that the demographics of that region of Italy made it ripe to be over run by this type of virus, because of the amount of people that have preexisting conditions...

This has been evident the whole time with the China data. I never said that the virus was just killing old people, or those who drank, or those that were obese. But the data suggests that you will have a way tougher time fighting this off if you are in that demographic.

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appreciate the clarity, but know that these data don't tell the whole story.... Just read an article today that ~40% of all US hospitalizations from COVID19 are aged 20-54. I have yet to seek out corroborative data, but if its true its damn scary

 

[arydolphin]

This is the state that I work in. Not really thrilled about this.


NBC News: The president of the
Massachusetts Medical Society, Dr. Maryanne C. Bombaugh, says tonight:

"The shortage of personal protective equipment is a dire situation."

She says even if they get more tests they can't safely test without the appropriate PPE.

 

[Canadan]

This is the state that I work in. Not really thrilled about this.


NBC News: The president of the
Massachusetts Medical Society, Dr. Maryanne C. Bombaugh, says tonight:

"The shortage of personal protective equipment is a dire situation."

She says even if they get more tests they can't safely test without the appropriate PPE.

man, my guy, hang in there.

 

[Nate]

This is the state that I work in. Not really thrilled about this.


NBC News: The president of the
Massachusetts Medical Society, Dr. Maryanne C. Bombaugh, says tonight:

"The shortage of personal protective equipment is a dire situation."

She says even if they get more tests they can't safely test without the appropriate PPE.

Check EBay....seems to be where everything else is.

 

[Stemmy66]

When this is all over I would love to know how many were smokers compared to non-smokers.

DEFINE_ME

www.thelancet.com

I'd refer you to the 6th paragraph in the Discussion section of this retrospective study from China.... smoking is definitely a factor, but the bigger take home for me is that damn near any other confounding factor puts you at risk too.

 

[Jman]

Isn’t the mortality rate the key indicator of the severity of any Epidemic or Pandemic?

One of the indicators, not the only.

And the issue here is not the mortality rate, it’s what the infection rate WILL do to our healthcare situation if true exponential infection hits, it’ll be overwhelmed without enough supplies,ventilators, and even healthy docs, and that will increase the mortality rate therefrom.

This was never going to have H1N1 mortality rates, and anyone who claimed it would was an imbecile.

Unchecked, this WILL cripple our system.

 

[Jman]

Check EBay....seems to be where everything else is.

We bought Amanda 20 masks tonight.

 

[Nate]

DEFINE_ME

www.thelancet.com

I'd refer you to the 6th paragraph in the Discussion section of this retrospective study from China.... smoking is definitely a factor, but the bigger take home for me is that damn near any other confounding factor puts you at risk too.

I guess I should go deeper, how many that ended up hospitalized were smokers or had previous respiratory issues.

 

[arydolphin]

man, my guy, hang in there.

I’m off in 3 hours and not on the schedule for 2 weeks. Pretty thankful about that. But the shortage is real.