Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

[Sean]

Instead of predictions vs projections, how about prognostications? lol

In any case, a lot of what has been predicted/projected/prognosticated has not come to pass. At some point people will begin to question anything the government says. Seems to be a lot of ready, fire, aim going on.

Some seem to feel we shouldn't question the "authorities", as if they are omniscient. However, questioning the "authorities" is the only way to keep them honest...well, relatively anyway, lol.

 

[PuffChippy]

According to reports on April 17, "Oklahoma saw a 53% increase in cases over the past week, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, meaning it may be just hitting you.

This is from health.ok.gov on their COVID page. Their governor also just signed a new order allowing elective surgeries and says he hopes they can start opening restaurants and churches and those kinds of things in a couple weeks. Out of the 139 deaths, one third were in nursing homes or long term care facilities.

 

[JDax]

This ...

 

[WillP]

This ⬆ ...

As a person who is only 64 days clean I couldn’t imagine going through withdrawal due to covid isolation. I would have done anything to cop and get my DOC. I would have died I think..... the loss of my business and work would have drove me to overdose I just know it. This will be the unspoken consequence of all of this. I haven’t seen a thing on the news about it. So many addicts will die because of this. I am so happy to be sober today and that the world told me to get clean before this started. Normal people will NEVER understand what it takes to get clean or what it even takes to get high. The world is falling apart for so many addicts and they won’t survive this. I know a golf forum probably isn’t used to this. But addiction affects so many more people than you think.

 

[Iceman!]

Now think about our numbers, and how some of the deaths are being reported and they are even better. You hate to see any life lost, but what a tremendous effort to limit in comparison.

Couldn’t agree more. I have to be honest, this is the best graph the administration has presented since this all started. Puts numbers in real perspective.
I get the SIP to avoid the hospital surge and there is more to be done however the average US citizen have done their part. Let’s open up where we can.

 

[Desmond]

Dallas County, Texas Population: 2.636 million

Coronavirus Tests: 13,130

We, as a Country, have a problem.

All of us want to reopen, believe me, but how can we reopen irresponsibly? We have been promised testing, drive-in testing, etc. and we have no delivery. Let's demand a responsible opening so we can avoid a second huge wave, which, if we don't have more data and anti-body testing, is inevitable. We are wasting time by not getting testing up and going. If you are going to protest, is it not reasonable to demand testing so we can go outside asap. There is a responsible way to protest - what we are seeing is not ... that's it. Is being reasonable that difficult?

 

[JB]

As a person who is only 64 days clean I couldn’t imagine going through withdrawal due to covid isolation. I would have done anything to cop and get my DOC. I would have died I think..... the loss of my business and work would have drove me to overdose I just know it. This will be the unspoken consequence of all of this. I haven’t seen a thing on the news about it. So many addicts will die because of this. I am so happy to be sober today and that the world told me to get clean before this started. Normal people will NEVER understand what it takes to get clean or what it even takes to get high. The world is falling apart for so many addicts and they won’t survive this. I know a golf forum probably isn’t used to this. But addiction affects so many more people than you think.

I enjoy reading positives and congrats on 64 days.

 

[BigDill]

Lol i hope so. Might have been easier to just say golf is permitted and the conditions that apply Hope were out there playing. We might have to bring @BigDil in to interpret the amendment.

I would live to, but I think my wife would leave me if I flew to NY right now after I was so adamant that I would not attend her cousin’s scheduled but now cancelled wedding there in May. But I may be up there in November

Did the check total their normally hourly wage? I’m not sure I understand. What should the company do?

The tipped employees are kind of stuck, but I am stuck for an alternative. Not all employees are paid the same wages.

I hope this changes the way tipped restaurant employees are paid. Perhaps a higher food cost, but no tips, and a base wage for the employee.

Florida has canceled school for the remainder of the school year.

I am relieved to be honest. There was a zero chance I was sending my kids back to school for three weeks of it reopened jn

I just want 2 things from Costco...but I'm not willing to line up for 2-3 hours like a cow with low self esteem to get them. People are nuts.

I go once a week for weekly shopping, mask and gloves and all. Never waited in line to get in more than 15 minutes. Sure, it’s long, but it loves fast.

 

[JDax]

Instead of predictions vs projections, how about prognostications? lol

In any case, a lot of what has been predicted/projected/prognosticated has not come to pass. At some point people will begin to question anything the government says. Seems to be a lot of ready, fire, aim going on.

Some seem to feel we shouldn't question the "authorities", as if they are omniscient. However, questioning the "authorities" is the only way to keep them honest...well, relatively anyway, lol.

Agreed...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17...-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/
“That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

The IHME model is fundamentally flawed, it was flawed when it first launched, and will remain flawed going forward because it’s internal assumptions and logic have no basis in reality. However, this model was/is touted by Dr. Fauci to as a tool use to guide our countermeasures.

Arguing Prediction v. Projection is just semantics.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Here is the link to the model

 

[goalie]

I'll jump in as someone who's worked on a dedicated covid19 ICU.

1. Masks. We would have been way better off if everyone wore a simple mask right away. I understand we didn't have enough, hell, we still don't, and "they" didn't want to induce panic buying, but lying about them by ignoring that they stop the person wearing it from spewing droplets everywhere, and acting like an N95 is something that requires a freaking PhD to wear now has the general public (rightfully) questioning anything the government says about masks.

Also, if we had addressed the known PPE shortage in January, and put the effort into accquiring masks that was put into bribing people for votes, we would already have enough masks.

2. Asymptomatic transmission.

This sucks. A lot of patients seem to have gotten exposed by people who developed symptoms well after contact, or never had symptoms.

It's a good thing if you are the person with no symptoms or mild symptoms, but...

3. This hits some people hard and fast.

I've seen people go from OK to ICU and intubated in a few hours. The white out CXR six hours after a clear CXR is disconcerting. Proning doesn't seem to help. ARDS protocol vent settings don't seem to work well. The lungs gunk up after a few days, organ failure. It sucks.

That said, most are old or have serious underlying conditions. We've have a few fit 30-something's that were intubated for a week+ though.

Anyhow, being somewhere that stopped elective hospital procedures early, we've got a lot of surge capacity. If we had enough PPE to ensure we were not going to have to re-use masks designed for single-use like some third world country, I'd say open stuff up and have high risk people self isolate.

I still think we should open up the minute we have our PPE situation squared away.

Anyhow, the silver lining is that I'm much better looking with all that crap on.....

 

[AvionicsMan]

I'll jump in as someone who's worked on a dedicated covid19 ICU.

1. Masks. We would have been way better off if everyone wore a simple mask right away. I understand we didn't have enough, hell, we still don't, and "they" didn't want to induce panic buying, but lying about them by ignoring that they stop the person wearing it from spewing droplets everywhere, and acting like an N95 is something that requires a freaking PhD to wear now has the general public (rightfully) questioning anything the government says about masks.

Also, if we had addressed the known PPE shortage in January, and put the effort into accquiring masks that was put into bribing people for votes, we would already have enough masks.

2. Asymptomatic transmission.

This sucks. A lot of patients seem to have gotten exposed by people who developed symptoms well after contact, or never had symptoms.

It's a good thing if you are the person with no symptoms or mild symptoms, but...

3. This hits some people hard and fast.

I've seen people go from OK to ICU and intubated in a few hours. The white out CXR six hours after a clear CXR is disconcerting. Proning doesn't seem to help. ARDS protocol vent settings don't seem to work well. The lungs gunk up after a few days, organ failure. It sucks.

That said, most are old or have serious underlying conditions. We've have a few fit 30-something's that were intubated for a week+ though.

Anyhow, being somewhere that stopped elective hospital procedures early, we've got a lot of surge capacity. If we had enough PPE to ensure we were not going to have to re-use masks designed for single-use like some third world country, I'd say open stuff up and have high risk people stuff isolate.

I still think we should open up the minute we have our PPE situation squared away.

Anyhow, the silver lining is that I'm much better looking with all that crap on.....

View attachment 8938133

Stay safe sir!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[goalie]

Stay safe sir!!


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I'm fine. If it's under control (think not NYC) and you have the time to do stuff right, I'm probably safer than the cashier at a store right now.

My biggest issue in our new ICU, named "Corona Cove" was figuring out the fancy audio video system on the rooms so we can communicate without going in, and we can dial in family to see/talk with them.

It's behind me

 

[JDax]

I'm fine. If it's under control (think not NYC) and you have the time to do stuff right, I'm probably safer than the cashier at a store right now.

My biggest issue in our new ICU, named "Corona Cove" was figuring out the fancy audio video system on the rooms so we can communicate without going in, and we can dial in family to see/talk with them.

It's behind me

View attachment 8938135

Thank you for providing your perspective!!!

 

[JDax]

 

[AndyL0711]

makes me think of the weather person saying we are getting 2 feet and we should hunker down and go to the grocery store, close schools etc...then we get 3 inches

 

[Elmave]

I would live to, but I think my wife would leave me if I flew to NY right now after I was so adamant that I would not attend her cousin’s scheduled but now cancelled wedding there in May. But I may be up there in November.
November fhe weather should be good. You can collect your prize the round of golf and of course bring Tevenor. You wont need to come up to settle the dispute with the State Tevenors source was correct the State will allow us to golf at our golf course. We will have to find another case to litigate together.

 

[goalie]

makes me think of the weather person saying we are getting 2 feet and we should hunker down and go to the grocery store, close schools etc...then we get 3 inches

People seem to be stuck in the logical fallacy of the false dichotomy in regards to covid19.

This isn't Captain Trips. It also damn sure isn't the flu.

We don't need to shut everything down and act like it's the end of the world, but, at the same time, prudent measures to prepare were smart.

IMO, had we actually had a first-world supply of masks, having everyone wear one in public, along with a huge "wash your hands and don't touch your face unless you just washed your hands" public service campaign would have done a lot.

Add in self-isolation by high risk people until there's herd immunity, and we probably still have NYC go to hell in a handbasket, but a lot of other places would be damn close to where they are now.

But, again just my opinion, the lack of appropriate masks is huge. I'm lucky that I'm at a place with a decent stockpile, but some local hospitals are re-using single-use masks because they don't have enough.

I'm the end, considering some of the stuff implement and enforced by local and state governments, I'm supportive of the people out protesting, even if it means my job sucks a little more in a few weeks.

Freedom is scary.

But sheep only have two speed: graze and stampede.......

 

[tequila4kapp]

Just quoting my previous post from a couple weeks back, here. I added underlining to indicate an answer to your question.

I don’t know that this is fair. Projections have the power of predictions regarding how they shape public policy. That Imperial College report that came out very early in this crisis...was that a projection or a prediction? I don’t remember. I DO remember those health experts said 2.2 million people IN THE US ALONE would die in a worst case scenario and that 1.1 million Americans would die even with mitigation startagies in place. I remember friends calling me in a panic that over a million people were going to die. And I am continuously aware that their paper was irresponsibly wrong.

 

[Tevenor]

makes me think of the weather person saying we are getting 2 feet and we should hunker down and go to the grocery store, close schools etc...then we get 3 inches

What's the reaction when they forecast 3" and you get 2 feet? Quite a different one right? Especially when that 2 feet strands people, creates mass pile ups, and wide power outages.

 

[tequila4kapp]

Dallas County, Texas Population: 2.636 million

Coronavirus Tests: 13,130

We, as a Country, have a problem.

All of us want to reopen, believe me, but how can we reopen irresponsibly? We have been promised testing, drive-in testing, etc. and we have no delivery. Let's demand a responsible opening so we can avoid a second huge wave, which, if we don't have more data and anti-body testing, is inevitable. We are wasting time by not getting testing up and going. If you are going to protest, is it not reasonable to demand testing so we can go outside asap. There is a responsible way to protest - what we are seeing is not ... that's it. Is being reasonable that difficult?

This is a great example of how you one size does not fit all. I appreciate your concerns. Contrast that with my home state of Oregon. Our population is 4.2 million people. We have had a cumulative total of @400 C19 patients admitted to hospitals. 290 C19 patients are currently admitted, 74 patients are in ICU. 74 ICU patients in a population over 4M. IMO it’s definitely time to start opening things back up in Oregon.

 

[Ockham]

Another interesting quote from Dr. Saphier:
"We have to be careful when we look at models, because ... models aren't necessarily predictive of the future,"

link: https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-nicole-saphier-mit-coronavirus-study-reopening-america

 

[AndyL0711]

What's the reaction when they forecast 3" and you get 2 feet? Quite a different one right? Especially when that 2 feet strands people, creates mass pile ups, and wide power outages.

Never seems to happen that way

 

[Ockham]

I don’t know that this is fair. Projections have the power of predictions regarding how they shape public policy. That Imperial College report that came out very early in this crisis...was that a projection or a prediction? I don’t remember. I DO remember those health experts said 2.2 million people IN THE US ALONE would die in a worst case scenario and that 1.1 million Americans would die even with mitigation startagies in place. I remember friends calling me in a panic that over a million people were going to die. And I am continuously aware that their paper was irresponsibly wrong.

The Imperial College Report was an early model. It projected 2.2 million U.S. deaths might occur in an “unmitigated” scenario. It also projected up to 1.2 million deaths with non pharmeaceutical interventions. The most significant "finding" was that even with mitigation, the US health care system's surge capacity would be exceeded no matter what. This scared a lot of people. The projected numbers have since been revised downward, as have most models.

This illustrates the danger inherent in viewing these studies as predictors of future events. In absence of other guidance or relevant experience with similar situations, models certainly provide some insight into possibilities that should be considered. But it is absolutely advisable to consider multiple models, and update those models based on real-time information.

 

[th6252]

Never seems to happen that way

I think never is a bit too strong of a word...maybe rarely would be better. The November ‘18 event that occurred here is still pretty fresh in my memory. Took me nearly 5 hours to get home when it normally takes me under 30 min. Took an hour just to get out of the town I work in...normally 5-10 min. And I vividly remember the GSP and GW bridge becoming parking lots. Everyone got caught with their pants down on that one.

 

[AndyL0711]

I think never is a bit too strong of a word...maybe rarely would be better. The November ‘18 event that occurred here is still pretty fresh in my memory. Took me nearly 5 hours to get home when it normally takes me under 30 min. Took an hour just to get out of the town I work in...normally 5-10 min. And I vividly remember the GSP and GW bridge becoming parking lots. Everyone got caught with their pants down on that one.

Ok, rarely seems to happen. I would go 99 to 1 for overpredicting (is that a word) snow.