Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

[RetiredBoomer]

The great plagues of 1331 and 1865 were possibly the only health catastrophes more devastating than the current pandemic in terms of human toll, so I'm in no way making light of the suffering taking place.

In terms of staying at home and not mingling, however, I'm really getting used to it.
If it weren't for the stress due to the reason for doing it, I'd find it quite relaxing.
Home and my recliner are comfortable places as it turns out.
I'm a little sick of eating at home all the time, and I'd like to see our daughter,
but other than that, the activity level seems to suit me, probably more than it should.

 

[obedt]

My whole point is that if you want to stay home, stay home.
There is only one side, that is dictating to the other what they should do. I’m not telling you what you should do or not do. I want you to decide that for yourself.

Americans were asked to “Flatten the Curve” and then the goalposts were moved.
First it was Hospital Beds...
Then it was Ventilators...
Now it’s more Tests...

What is the next thing we are going to be asked to wait for?

But the asymptotic? If there are that many asymptotic then the case mortality rate is way lower than the Diamond Princess (0.7%). That’s actually good news.

Now most Americans know more people laid off or furloughed than had COVID19.

Do what we normally would do in a non-election year and quarantine the sick and the compromised, and go back to work.

I absolutely agree that there are a lot of areas that can and should resume activity. Taking the political aspect of your post out (election year convo), it sounds like other than the people who are already sick with the disease, your recommendation is to come back to business as usual pretty much across the board. Want to make sure I’m reading that correctly.

 

[RetiredBoomer]

I tend to agree with the "let's stay home a while longer" crowd,
That seems to be the minority view here on the forum, but is clearly the majority view in my community.

I'd love to get a haircut
[even with the minimal amount of hair I have],
and we miss our favorite restaurants, and golf would be nice, of course,

but people are still dropping here. It's not good here in the Northeast, and even in the heartlands, the meat packing plants are looking very sketchy.

The loss of income for working people is clearly the very understandable argument on the other side.

 

[JDax]

I absolutely agree that there are a lot of areas that can and should resume activity. Taking the political aspect of your post out (election year convo), it sounds like other than the people who are already sick with the disease, your recommendation is to come back to business as usual pretty much across the board. Want to make sure I’m reading that correctly.

What I’m saying is that the historical countermeasure has been to quarantine the sick and the compromised and allow the general population to build up herd immunity.

So yes, open it back up (Not the Northeast)... Would I have done what Sweden did...? No... because I believed in the hospital capacity issue, I thought “flatten the curve” was pragmatic at the time. We accomplished the mission, curve was flattened, capacity was saved.

This has become more about Control than Health.

 

[JDax]

I tend to agree with the "let's stay home a while longer" crowd,
That seems to be the minority view here on the forum, but is clearly the majority view in my community.

I'd love to get a haircut
[even with the minimal amount of hair I have],
and we miss our favorite restaurants, and golf would be nice, of course,

but people are still dropping here. It's not good here in the Northeast, and even in the heartlands, the meat packing plants are looking very sketchy.

The loss of income for working people is clearly the very understandable argument on the other side.

You are retired , right?
So if you want to stay home, stay home...

 

[obedt]

I tend to agree with the "let's stay home a while longer" crowd,
That seems to be the minority view here on the forum, but is clearly the majority view in my community.

I'd love to get a haircut
[even with the minimal amount of hair I have],
and we miss our favorite restaurants, and golf would be nice, of course,

but people are still dropping here. It's not good here in the Northeast, and even in the heartlands, the meat packing plants are looking very sketchy.

The loss of income for working people is clearly the very understandable argument on the other side.

I still think even in affected areas, certain precautions can be taken to partially open up a lot of businesses. I think stand-alone stores can put in restrictions on the amount of customers at a time, manufacturing can produce in more limited amounts, etc. Just figure out a way to get people back as safely as possible in collaboration with heavy testing protocols.

Not close to business as usual, not ideal, but I believe the optimal solution strives in finding a balance with each area’s current situation.

 

[RetiredBoomer]

You are retired , right?
So if you want to stay home, stay home...

Thanks!

Seriously, whatever you choose to do, stay safe and healthy.

 

[obedt]

What I’m saying is that the historical countermeasure has been to quarantine the sick and the compromised and allow the general population to build up herd immunity.

So yes, open it back up (Not the Northeast)... Would I have done what Sweden did...? No... because I believed in the hospital capacity issue, I thought “flatten the curve” was pragmatic at the time. We accomplished the mission, curve was flattened, capacity was saved.

This has become more about Control than Health.

I don’t know enough if herd immunity is actually an effective and ideal alternative against CV19. I tend to believe there are a lot of productive people with certain forms of asthma or respiratory ailments that would be exposed to a greater risk with this approach than what is necessary, but I may be biased because I and a few people very close to me have suffered from them, not going off what statistics would offer.

On the other hand, sheltering in place couldn’t be intended to be a long term solution. Opening back up is a necessity. Personally I’d be very uncomfortable with either the extreme of strict sip continuing or society going from 0-60 booming everything back up as if nothing happened.

 

[deuce]

I tend to agree with the "let's stay home a while longer" crowd,
That seems to be the minority view here on the forum, but is clearly the majority view in my community.

I'd love to get a haircut
[even with the minimal amount of hair I have],
and we miss our favorite restaurants, and golf would be nice, of course,

but people are still dropping here. It's not good here in the Northeast, and even in the heartlands, the meat packing plants are looking very sketchy.

The loss of income for working people is clearly the very understandable argument on the other side.

Here is the data from my state: https://www.scdhec.gov/infectious-d...se-2019-covid-19/sc-demographic-data-covid-19

A couple of interesting things. About half (48%) of the total detected cases are in people at or below the age of 50. Almost 90% (87% specifically) of the deaths are of people at or above the age of 60. Now it's easy to say "Well, all the old people should quarantine, while everyone else can go back to work." The problem has always been, as we have seen in a number of retirement homes and assisted living facilities, that this virus burns like wild-fire and can decimate those populations. The second group (over 60) are most likely to occupy those facilities, the first group (under 50) are most likely to staff those facilities. I have yet to see a plan that can effectively protect seniors while concomitantly easing off restrictions for everyone else. A good portion of our aged society rely on people - who are more likely to carry the virus asymptomatically - to help them navigate their day, directly or indirectly. Those interactions can put their health in jeopardy. What would be nice to see is a coherent, comprehensive plan, that attempts to address this disparity in who is susceptible to being infected vs who is most likely to die, in a way other than just saying "stay away from everyone".

 

[JB]

I don’t know enough if herd immunity is actually an effective and ideal alternative against CV19. I tend to believe there are a lot of productive people with certain forms of asthma or respiratory ailments that would be exposed to a greater risk with this approach than what is necessary, but I may be biased because I and a few people very close to me have suffered from them, not going off what statistics would offer.

I agree with you, and believe it should be personal choice to stay in for those ailments. GolferGal suffers from a minor form of asthma.
I tend to believe the same should be said during most viruses that are deadly and contagious.

 

[RetiredBoomer]

What would be nice to see is a coherent, comprehensive plan, that attempts to address this disparity in who is susceptible to being infected vs who is most likely to die, in a way other than just saying "stay away from everyone".

Good point. "Stay away from everyone" doesn't work for everybody as well as it's been working for me.
And even I have to go to the supermarket.
I tried online delivery once, and half of the order constituted substitutions that didn't really work well for us.

I will say this.
People keep their distance, and most are wearing masks and gloves.
The market only allows a certain number of shoppers in at once, and the aisles are one-way traffic only.
In short, people are doing the best they can, but the economic problems for many are no small problem either.

 

[JDax]

I don’t know enough if herd immunity is actually an effective and ideal alternative against CV19. I tend to believe there are a lot of productive people with certain forms of asthma or respiratory ailments that would be exposed to a greater risk with this approach than what is necessary, but I may be biased because I and a few people very close to me have suffered from them, not going off what statistics would offer.

On the other hand, sheltering in place couldn’t be intended to be a long term solution. Opening back up is a necessity. Personally I’d be very uncomfortable with either the extreme of strict sip continuing or society going from 0-60 booming everything back up as if nothing happened.

I don’t disagree with this, my wife has Lupus, she isn’t going to be going out and about. We already social distanced during every flu season (She can’t catch the flu either).

 

[Gyro25]

Damn, such a tragic outcome that people aren't taking into account... the mental health of our doctors and nurses in hot spot areas that are just seeing people die left and right.

NYC Emergency Room Doctor Dies by Suicide After Treating COVID-19 Patients

A top New York City emergency room doctor died from suicide after treating COVID-19 patients, her father told NBC News.

www.nbcnewyork.com

I have a friend that's a nurse in ICU so he's a little more used to it, but general nurses who were basic care floors are having more deaths in a week than in an entire year.

We have a support line for staff and the stories that come through there are just heartbreaking.

Stay home as much as possible or at least be smart.. the people claiming this is all a hoax, calling the nurses out front of the hospital actors, etc are just an insult to healthcare workers, and other lines of essential workers

 

[gmiller598]

More data...96% of prisoners in 4 states who test positive for Coronavirus are asyptomatic.

Coronavirus Testing Across Four State Prison Systems: 96% Asymptomatic

Coronavirus testing across four U.S. state prison systems found that the majority of inmates who tested positive remain asymptomatic.

www.breitbart.com

Interesting points but I'd also like to see full numbers after they have completely recovered. I know in Ohio they were testing every inmate where breakouts occur so there is a possibility that some of these individuals were tested before they exhibited any symptoms and were caught very early in the process. The unknown factor is how many started having symptoms after they were tested and are they going to be tested again.

I don't know how much the numbers would change. I expect not a huge swing. I think I had seen that there have been 9 inmate deaths in Ohio in the last numbers I have seen. I do agree that these prison groups can be a good guide towards overall numbers because they seem to be the one of the only populations getting proactive testing.

 

[fuffle master]

Damn, such a tragic outcome that people aren't taking into account... the mental health of our doctors and nurses in hot spot areas that are just seeing people die left and right.

NYC Emergency Room Doctor Dies by Suicide After Treating COVID-19 Patients

A top New York City emergency room doctor died from suicide after treating COVID-19 patients, her father told NBC News.

www.nbcnewyork.com

I have a friend that's a nurse in ICU so he's a little more used to it, but general nurses who were basic care floors are having more deaths in a week than in an entire year.

We have a support line for staff and the stories that come through there are just heartbreaking.

Stay home as much as possible or at least be smart.. the people claiming this is all a hoax, calling the nurses out front of the hospital actors, etc are just an insult to healthcare workers, and other lines of essential workers

I hear you and it’s very difficult for some areas like ours. NY, NJ, PA, and much of the Northeast has seen more than many the other states combined.

I know we are not going to open for a bit longer (I would different argument), but I understand that backlash since in many other states they don’t see the hospitals packed or people dying. They see empty hospitals. So they act accordingly to what they see. We like to think everyone is acting like they are in our area. As for the doctors/nurses/health care workers seeing so much death, I feel for them. Has to be difficult, but a job they went into full knowing that death and sickness were part of the equation. Just not at this level most likely and hopefully they don’t sour on their jobs when we are thru this.

 

[chile]

Dog is apparently first in U.S. to test positive for new coronavirus

 

[Northerner]

The case study I referenced before is still looking good.

Sweden v. Michiganz

Similar sized "states". One with a very strong-armed approach to shutting down, and the other a very laissez faire approach. Sweden still has less deaths than Michigan.




Now...in MN, in my opinion we have FAILED our elderly care folks. The vast majority of deaths in our state have been in care facilities...the places that are SHUT OFF from society. The fact we couldn't protect these people is tragic. Also tragic is the fact that the entire economy has been shut down, and these care facilities are effectively already out of the system as a whole, and when we add up the numbers (outside of the elderly care facilities), only a few dozen people have perished. Surely every soul lost is tragic, but should we have ever shut down the economy? Especially when Home Depot, Walmart, every single grocery store in the state is FILLED, I think reasonable people can come to their own conclusion on that.


Trump was right: we should have been opened back up by Easter.

 

[pilot25]

By definition of the word "inconvenience" that is not an incorrect statement.

Definition of inconvenient

: not convenient especially in giving trouble or annoyance : INOPPORTUNE an inconvenient time

Involuntary unemployment is an inconvenience.
The fact I can't spend time with my family and friends right now is an inconvenience.
It is inconvenient that I can't go sit in a restaurant right now.

Are you still gainfully employed or are you going to enter abject poverty with 30+ million others?

 

[pilot25]

The Week in Public Finance: The 10 States That Give More to the Feds Than They Get Back

Connecticut tops the list of states whose taxpayers receive the least bang for their buck from the feds.

www.governing.com

Money than they get back? States aren't supposed to get money from the Fed. You see there was this guy and he had an idea. His name was James Madison....

If your state wants to take all your money and spend it frivolously on stupid crap and you are okay with that, great. The rest of the country isn't on the hook when you suddenly figure out you cannot pay your credit card bill.

Conn liabilities are 230% of its assets. LOL!!! Please president bail out our pensions because they were insolvent years ago and we cannot tax our people 1150%.

"Everything will be free if you vote for me." The sheep who believed in this need a lesson.

Rosie the Riveter from yesterdays generation is now Maggie the Moocher today.

 

[Bernoulli]

What I’m saying is that the historical countermeasure has been to quarantine the sick and the compromised and allow the general population to build up herd immunity.

So yes, open it back up (Not the Northeast)... Would I have done what Sweden did...? No... because I believed in the hospital capacity issue, I thought “flatten the curve” was pragmatic at the time. We accomplished the mission, curve was flattened, capacity was saved.

This has become more about Control than Health.

My whole point is that if you want to stay home, stay home.
There is only one side, that is dictating to the other what they should do. I’m not telling you what you should do or not do. I want you to decide that for yourself.

Americans were asked to “Flatten the Curve” and then the goalposts were moved.
First it was Hospital Beds...
Then it was Ventilators...
Now it’s more Tests...

What is the next thing we are going to be asked to wait for?

But the asymptotic? If there are that many asymptotic then the case mortality rate is way lower than the Diamond Princess (0.7%). That’s actually good news.

Now most Americans know more people laid off or furloughed than had COVID19.

Do what we normally would do in a non-election year and quarantine the sick and the compromised, and go back to work.

11/3/20. That date is so significant.

 

[obedt]

P

The case study I referenced before is still looking good.

Sweden v. Michiganz

Similar sized "states". One with a very strong-armed approach to shutting down, and the other a very laissez faire approach. Sweden still has less deaths than Michigan.




Now...in MN, in my opinion we have FAILED our elderly care folks. The vast majority of deaths in our state have been in care facilities...the places that are SHUT OFF from society. The fact we couldn't protect these people is tragic. Also tragic is the fact that the entire economy has been shut down, and these care facilities are effectively already out of the system as a whole, and when we add up the numbers (outside of the elderly care facilities), only a few dozen people have perished. Surely every soul lost is tragic, but should we have ever shut down the economy? Especially when Home Depot, Walmart, every single grocery store in the state is FILLED, I think reasonable people can come to their own conclusion on that.


Trump was right: we should have been opened back up by Easter.

It isn’t like Sweden is operating bau. They were certainly more lax, particularly with restaurants and schools, as well as some others. They did absolutely encourage social distancing though, and urged strongly that people work from homes.

Workplaces and restaurants have to enforce certain distancing criteria or else they get shut down.

It also depends some on the culture too. Where I live, honestly if it wasn’t enforced strongly at the beginning people would have continued bau. But every place needs to be able to enforce the measures given their conditions. What worked in Sweden may have not worked everywhere.

 

[Northerner]

P

It isn’t like Sweden is operating bau. They were certainly more lax, particularly with restaurants and schools, as well as some others. They did absolutely encourage social distancing though, and urged strongly that people work from homes.

Workplaces and restaurants have to enforce certain distancing criteria or else they get shut down.

It also depends some on the culture too. Where I live, honestly if it wasn’t enforced strongly at the beginning people would have continued bau. But every place needs to be able to enforce the measures given their conditions. What worked in Sweden may have not worked everywhere.

Another thing Trump was right about: Leave it to the states to implement strategies pertinent to their local economies. Granted, far more Govs have used it as a ticket to act like Kings(totalitarians) than to better their citizens' lives.

 

[PuffChippy]

Now...in MN, in my opinion we have FAILED our elderly care folks. The vast majority of deaths in our state have been in care facilities...the places that are SHUT OFF from society. The fact we couldn't protect these people is tragic.

This is probably Monday morning QB'ing but imagine if we took all those resources like the temporary hospitals that never saw a single patient or the hospital ship that sat mostly empty, or those furloughed healthcare professionals that had nothing to do, and instead we focused all that on helping the most vulnerable like the elderly in nursing homes and long-term care facilities. We knew these people were the most severely affected from the very beginning yet 3 months later we act surprised when people locked in these facilities (that their families were not allowed into) start dying en masse? There's a lot more to this than we know but when you read about these homes that were stacking dead bodies like firewood and nobody knew about it until someone else turned them in you know we're doing something very wrong.

To add a wacky conspiratorial twist, when I put on my tin foil hat I wonder how the media played a part in this. From day 1 we were told that the old and feeble were those who were dying and that if you were young you may not even show symptoms. Italy was reporting that the media age for covid death was 80.5 years. Vermont said their media age was 74. The NCBI said it was 75. Then came SIP where everyone young or old, healthy or not was locked in their homes and businesses were closed. That's when you started seeing a slight shift. Gone were stories reporting the exceptionally high media age for deaths, replaced with stories about how young and healthy people were dying too, with the strokes and exploding hearts and all that. It's not just old people, no one was safe! Why? Maybe it was just a coincidence but it sure kept everyone afraid so they wouldn't challenge the SIP orders. I'm not saying that's what I believe or that those stories weren't true, it's just fun playing conspiracy theorist when you see a thing like that play out and think 'wow, that was awfully convenient'.

 

[gmiller598]

Are you still gainfully employed or are you going to enter abject poverty with 30+ million others?

Either answer doesn't change the definition of the word.

 

[obedt]

I'll sign off this thread for a while. Not interested in politics at all, one way or the other. Just glad everyone is safe!