20%? This is fear mongering
Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact
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I can't control what you choose to read and comprehend. the first half of the statement is the pertinent information
if all active cases become fatalities, death rate goes to ~20%
do you believe this will happen? (rhetorical question)
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We do pools and studies every single day. Many times they are done in the dumbest things.
We have seen polls saying how many believe we should stay shuttered and those that do not. However, as I keep asking those on my Facebook page whom think we should continue to shelter and those that are against are choosing money over lives (different argument) about how many of them own a business that is closed or lost their employment? Where is the study to show really how people think? I am willing to bet many to most of those saying we should continue to shelter don’t have their life savings in a business. Don’t have many families relying on that business to feed theirs. I am willing to bet most haven’t lost their jobs or salary as a result of sheltering. It would be very interesting to how things change when it actually affects them.
We have seen polls saying how many believe we should stay shuttered and those that do not. However, as I keep asking those on my Facebook page whom think we should continue to shelter and those that are against are choosing money over lives (different argument) about how many of them own a business that is closed or lost their employment? Where is the study to show really how people think? I am willing to bet many to most of those saying we should continue to shelter don’t have their life savings in a business. Don’t have many families relying on that business to feed theirs. I am willing to bet most haven’t lost their jobs or salary as a result of sheltering. It would be very interesting to how things change when it actually affects them.
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As we start reopening non-essential businesses in Arizona, it's disheartening and saddening to see how many small (and even not-so-small) businesses aren't making it out the other side of this thing. I'm fortunate enough to have been financially safe through it, but that doesn't mean I don't feel for all the people who weren't so blessed. It's absolutely disastrous to a lot of them.
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- #9,580
But this is fallacy logic...
The survival rate if Covid gets contracted in your example is as follows, 95% (this is low given the world wide survival rate). Now run your number at a fatality rate of 5%, that would be the most logical thing to do in an attempt to project the actual fatalities.
With only 14 people total in the ICU in the entire province, there is 0 chance that the fatality rate gets anywhere close to 20%.
Not sure what point you are trying to make.
I wasn't projecting anything, sometimes 2+2=4 and nothing more
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- #9,582
“if all active cases become fatalities, death rate goes to ~20%” is a projection.
The if/then statement of All Active cases = 100% fatality; then the total fatality rate = 20% is bad math and not exactly “2+2=4”.
again, do you (or anyone for that matter) believe 100% of current active cases will become fatalities?
if the answer is anywhere near yes, lower the dosage
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- #9,584
I don’t believe that, I just posted how it was mathematically impossible...I don’t need to lower any dosages. Thanks.
You were talking about people’s reading/comprehension, I was just trying to figure what point you were trying to make with the addition of the “if all active cases become fatalities, death rate goes to ~20%” statement in your post.
rollin
"Just playin golf pally"
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certainly this point can be made from either and any view. Something I had directly or indirectly alluded to in past posts (even recent ones) is that we are imo all guilty of some selfishness and are about what is more important in our own close circle of our own life. We are all guilty of this to some extent. I think thats just human nature.
Here is the issue (or argument) with what you mention.
Just as you make that valid point we can also then just as easily say it in an opposite manor. We can say that many who have their life savings in a business are willing to sacrifice others lives in order to preserve their own investment. You see......its simply just depends which way we choose to say it and both ways would not at all be incorrect.
Most small businesses owners that needed to close (and who normally wouldn't been able to collect) are under these shelter circumstances able to collect UC plus the 600 per week on top of that in order to feed their families. While i can certainly see see the troubles with risking losing the business at least they are not starving to death right now while the powers that be try to keep more other folks from dying. Im not at all ignoring the problems business owners will have. Ive even expressed this. Besides one can always argue what good is the persons business when they themselves or one their loved ones end up dead. Again (as Ive sort of implied) we are brave when we sacrifice some small "X" amount of folks but that only right up until its our self or someone in our private close world. The its the worse thing ever. We (including myself) are all a bit selfish in that sense. These questions or views are not at all easy ones to swallow from either side from any view. They are all ugly truths.
Most of us dont give much a S#!T about things so long as they are not in our own yards nor art of our circle. Humans have been built that way forever. Its mostly "all about me" and i am willing to also admit that. I think we all have some degree of that in us. I am one to turn the other cheek and give (not only give but look for) benefit of doubt even to the point of it hurting myself. Thats just how i am out in the world And yet even I am still guilty of an "all about me" mindset to some degree with some things.
Don’t forget, I hit it as far as Jamie Sadlowski, lol! (I was referring to me with driver and him hitting his putter just FYI....lol!)
Post accident I can’t even keep up there. Ha. According to Trackman 4 data I have a CHS of 105 or so, carry the ball 250 with total being 266. But I think I finally have my meds mostly curbed. I’ve played 4 times this year, +12, +6, +5, and +4. I’m actually physically able to hit a golf ball again. Which is very encouraging after last year when I played 72 holes without striking a single ball well and failed to get off the tee once.
I still look at that as the golf time of my life so thank you. I’m sorry if I didn’t rep the THP values as well as I should have. Still feel guilty for that but man was I a hot mess medicine wise. I wouldn’t have signed up but was diagnosed post getting selected. Since I’m on a clinical trial phase for a new medicine I get to be the one reporting side effects, yay¡ Inability to golf is not one of the boxes on their questionnaire but man if it didn’t seem like it. I was a wobbly mess. So far this season I’ve been back to my sucky self and playing more in line with my last HC revision. Last year was just bad, on every front and I again apologize if I didn’t rep THP the way it should have been.
I love this place and I love how everyone is treated like royalty when selected for an event.
Sorry back to Covid. Masks. How long do you (everyone not just JB)think that they’ll be required for workplaces? Specifically here in Ohio. Now that data is out and they’re known to cause more harm than good. (I’ll continue to wear one in enclosed (car) spaces with my kids around as I do feel like it’s better than nothing to protect those around you.
Yeah, don’t you and I know, lol! We both encountered the same one. I got my internet vaccine by telling them to stick things of their own where things shouldn’t be stuck.
I’m sure you handled it more gently—— maybe, lol!
You are s good man. One I’d tee it up with every day of the week. I hope to someday grow into your example. For now though I’ll stick with being a knuckle-headed knuckle dragger. Ha.
Wow! One of the popular kids. Nice. My twitter account has me on it and if anyone is following in if, well.... I wouldn’t know how to tell anyways. It’s highly unlikely anyone is since I created it to thank Bridgestone and THP. Mission acomplished. Have bot been back on at all since this outbreak started out here. .
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What we are finding in UK is that people in the private sector , who are losing money and will have to generate the wealth to pay for the COVID costs are desperate to get back to work, but the public sector , transport and teachers in particular, are sitting at home on full pay , saying it is not safe for them to venture out. A lot of friction between the two parts of the economy.
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Golfer holes first shot as play resumes
Amateur player Ed Sandison hits a hole-in-one with his first shot on his return to playing golf on Wednesday after coronavirus restrictions were eased.
www.bbc.co.uk
And the bar was shut!
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- #9,591
Some of the stuff in here...
You want to open up this country? Why are you trying to kill my grandmother?
Based on every real data point that exists, you should believe that the only option for everything is to stay inside. Be it flu, driving, etc etc.
You want to open up this country? Why are you trying to kill my grandmother?
Based on every real data point that exists, you should believe that the only option for everything is to stay inside. Be it flu, driving, etc etc.
the haves vs the have-nots
What are some things that will change for you going forward? I have a few examples for us--
1.- My barbershop opens back up on Monday. I was an every 3 weeks customer. During this closure, I bought a set of clippers and my daughter cut my hair.
We'll keep doing the home haircuts going forward because it is so convenient.
2.-Any buffet style restaurant---while I'll never say never it is unlikely that we will patronize those going forward. ( It was not frequent prior to this)
3.-You will never see us on a cruise ship of any sort. Sad, because an Alaskan cruise was on our bucket list.
On the positive side of things I am playing golf 3x per week and our course is still doing one person per cart which actually seems to speed up play.
One of the negatives for us is that we put on hold our plans to build our forever home until we have a more clear picture of how the real estate market is affected by all of this---
1.- My barbershop opens back up on Monday. I was an every 3 weeks customer. During this closure, I bought a set of clippers and my daughter cut my hair.
We'll keep doing the home haircuts going forward because it is so convenient.
2.-Any buffet style restaurant---while I'll never say never it is unlikely that we will patronize those going forward. ( It was not frequent prior to this)
3.-You will never see us on a cruise ship of any sort. Sad, because an Alaskan cruise was on our bucket list.
On the positive side of things I am playing golf 3x per week and our course is still doing one person per cart which actually seems to speed up play.
One of the negatives for us is that we put on hold our plans to build our forever home until we have a more clear picture of how the real estate market is affected by all of this---
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Just reading an article about the coronavirus and a study the state of Indiana did via random testing. It is another study that shows between a .7% and .5% fatality rate from contracting the virus. If you use the total deaths reported in the US and use .6% death rate to come up with an implied number of actual infections across the country that implies about 14.2 million folks have actually had the virus. In the state of New York that number is around 4.6 million people or 1/4 of the states population. It's great that the fatality rate is much lower than reported, but unfortunately for many of our states this shows that the virus has not touched us at all yet. What does that mean? IMO this summer is going to see a drop in cases and risk so do your thing this summer. See your family and friends and take a road trip. Unfortunately though in a state like Indiana where it gets cold and only 3% of the population has had the virus it's going to be a long winter with possible quarantine protocols in effect again. I don't want to start an argument with the folks that are listening to a lot of right wing radio, but I do want you to know so you can enjoy your summer and continue to mitigate risk for yourself, your family, and the others in your community. Just a PSA not a political statement.
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- #9,595
I don't necessarily disagree with this, but my curiosity is how that differs from influenza statistically speaking? Depending on study of influenza, I think a .1-.2% death rate comes up each year I believe. While that is showing less, the data does show that a large group of deaths have been listed as Covid-19 despite being caused by something else. But let's say this is correct and it is about double. What should be done?
It's not feasible to lock down a country, economy, etc for every contagious item that causes harm. I think most reasonable would argue that proper education and those with higher risk (or the choice) should be out of harms' way.
Supreme Court for Wisconsin yesterday overturned the Governor's safer at home order. Bars opened and were packed the minute of...lol
Just crazy how we go from can't go anywhere to who gives a sheet let's party. Not smart in my opinion.
I wish everyone to be healthy and just protect yourselves please.
Just crazy how we go from can't go anywhere to who gives a sheet let's party. Not smart in my opinion.
I wish everyone to be healthy and just protect yourselves please.
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Like I said, not here to argue whether we should or should not. Doesn't matter what me or you think because we can both wish in one hand and crap in the other and we know good and well which would fill up first. I am merely letting everyone know based on the data there will likely be a resurgence in many parts of the country this winter. Also based on the decisions governments have made already it is likely that when that happens some of the restrictions that have been lifted will be put back into place. Like I said my opinion on restrictions is unimportant, I am merely giving advice for everyone to enjoy their summer and take the time to visit friends and family. Also it would be very unwise to book international travel anytime in the foreseeable future.
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- #9,598
Im not arguing or trying not to. Im discussing because I think there is some merit to this. Based on what we were learning that heat may be a good thing, it would stand to be correct that come fall and winter in other areas with less infected, we would see an uptick.
Im genuinely curious what people believe are the best measures with contagious items for the future.
Would you trust you with a free haircut? So why would someone that cares about their hair (most likely) trust it? Lol!
I’ve cut my kids hair from birth until they cared about girls. They had options, 1/32nd of an inch to 1”.
Those that bought the flow-bees in the 80’s are finally able to get their revenge at all the laughing we did at their expense.
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