do you expect to mishit the ball ?

IndySC

'16 #TheGrandaddy
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Jan 12, 2016
Messages
6,477
Reaction score
459
Location
IL
Handicap
Unknown
Well there's some solid reading comprehension lol. I'm playing for the mishit in that situation. There is no indication that there's trouble around the hole to factor in, so all things being even, I'm playing for the 70% rather than the 30%.
 

DG_1234

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 29, 2015
Messages
5,794
Reaction score
1,675
Handicap
2
My whole golf full swing is built around swinging the same way, everytime, regardless of what club I'm using. Same speed, tempo, timing, rythem, balance, or what ever. It's a repeatable, comfort thing for me.
I remember sitting in the bleachers behind the driving range at the 1998 US Open and watching Payne Stewart work thru his bag from wedge to 7 iron to 2 -iron to driver.
His swing tempo and rhythm remained the same no matter which club . Tour pros stopped to watch him. It was something to see.
 

blugold

Autobots, roll out!
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Oct 20, 2010
Messages
51,207
Reaction score
2,110
Location
Appleton, WI
Handicap
12 or so.
If 7 out of 10 of my 7iron swings go 130 yards, my 7iron is my 130 yard club.

Play the average.
 

Sean

Earthbound Extraterrestrial
Joined
Sep 5, 2009
Messages
10,494
Reaction score
1,602
Location
South of Boston
I don't expect to mishit it, but I don't expect to flush it either.
 

Scorpion12

B + <-- Be Positive. UP! Not down. Nice not mean.
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Mar 7, 2014
Messages
6,723
Reaction score
3,047
Location
Sc Columbia area
Handicap
29.2
Given your scenario where 70% of my swings result in a crappy shot, I'll grab my 6i and try to get it on the green.
 

KingsKraken

Well-known member
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Nov 30, 2020
Messages
455
Reaction score
454
Location
Southwest WA
Handicap
High
The problem, or “trick question”, with this hypothetical is thinking this golfer’s 7 iron carry is 155 yards. That’s their best carry. It’s not their typical carry. Their average carry is probably more like 140. Their 6 iron’s average carry is probably closer to 155.

As a golfer with a mishit ratio not too different from the hypothetical, I use my average carry as my guide for club selection. I can carry my 7 iron 165 yards, but I expect to carry it around 150 because that’s what I carry it most often.

For anyone using their average carry as their guide, this club up choice would never be an issue.
 

Annhl8rX

Well-known member
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Aug 9, 2014
Messages
2,533
Reaction score
506
Location
Texas
Handicap
30
I'll have to give put some more effort into taking a longer club with an easier swing. It certainly couldn't result in me hitting any fewer greens, as I essentially never get on in regulation.
 

tommyhaka

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 19, 2015
Messages
1,016
Reaction score
540
Location
SE Michigan
Handicap
12.2
Your ball lay in the fairway, 150 yards from a center of the green hole location. Good lie, level terrain, no wind. Front edge of the green is 140 yards, back edge of the green is 165 yards.

A seriously mishit 7-iron carries 120 to 130 yards.
A slightly mishit 7-iron for you carries 130 to 140 yards.
A well struck 7-iron carries 145 yards.
A very well struck-pure 7-iron carries 155 yards.

Your game is at a level where seven swings out of ten you either slightly mishit or seriously mishit the ball. Do you club yourself hoping/expecting for one of the three out of ten swings that will carry 145 to 155 yards? Or do you club yourself expecting a mishit and carry the ball 130 yards ?
This is a very good scenario as to why I carry a hybrid for this shot. My hand eye coordination was very good when I was younger, as playing baseball kept it very sharp. Now, at age 65, not as good, and mishits are not uncommon with iron. If 7 of 10 shots are mishits with an iron, for me, 9 of 10 shots with my 7 hybrid are decent shots that travel approx 150 yds. I carry 6 hybrids to alleviate this issue, they are so easy for me to hit.
 

Chef23

Well-known member
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Apr 2, 2018
Messages
3,900
Reaction score
2,507
Location
Massachusetts
Handicap
2.9
Given what you said about your swing you said that 70% of the time your carry is 140 or less I would play more club so that 70% of the time you would carry it at least 140. When you find yourself consistently long as your game improves adjust. I would bet on the course you will rarely be long.

I chose clubs on solidly struck shots which for me is about 8/10 with a 7 iron not for my best swings.
 

DG_1234

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 29, 2015
Messages
5,794
Reaction score
1,675
Handicap
2
The problem, or “trick question”, with this hypothetical is thinking this golfer’s 7 iron carry is 155 yards. That’s their best carry. It’s not their typical carry. Their average carry is probably more like 140. Their 6 iron’s average carry is probably closer to 155.
That's really the theme of the OP, to learn and play for typical-average carry. I expect most amateur players consider their "stock 7-iron carry" to be the yardage from a well struck shot. But if the player only strikes it well 3 out of 10 swings, his typical-average carry is likely 10 to 15 yards less than what he considers his "stock 7-iron". Consequently he usually leaves his approach shots well short of the green.
 

DG_1234

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 29, 2015
Messages
5,794
Reaction score
1,675
Handicap
2
This is a very good scenario as to why I carry a hybrid for this shot. My hand eye coordination was very good when I was younger, as playing baseball kept it very sharp. Now, at age 65, not as good, and mishits are not uncommon with iron. If 7 of 10 shots are mishits with an iron, for me, 9 of 10 shots with my 7 hybrid are decent shots that travel approx 150 yds. I carry 6 hybrids to alleviate this issue, they are so easy for me to hit.
Excellent ! I do believe that for many players high lofted hybrid clubs will provide more consistent shot distance control than the comparably lofted irons. I think part of the reason for that is players often under club them selves with irons but are less prone to do that with hybrid clubs.
 

bobellis75

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
1,440
Reaction score
521
Location
Lee's Summit, MO
Handicap
my swing
Your ball lay in the fairway, 150 yards from a center of the green hole location. Good lie, level terrain, no wind. Front edge of the green is 140 yards, back edge of the green is 165 yards.

A seriously mishit 7-iron carries 120 to 130 yards.
A slightly mishit 7-iron for you carries 130 to 140 yards.
A well struck 7-iron carries 145 yards.
A very well struck-pure 7-iron carries 155 yards.

Your game is at a level where seven swings out of ten you either slightly mishit or seriously mishit the ball. Do you club yourself hoping/expecting for one of the three out of ten swings that will carry 145 to 155 yards? Or do you club yourself expecting a mishit and carry the ball 130 yards ?
When I'm playing well which hasn't been for a while....I usually assess what I THINK will get the job done. So let's say I'm at a distance where I think - based on my range work, the 7 iron should get me there. Then depending on how I'm hitting that day - I'll either hit that 7 iron, or I club up and try to just take a nice easy swing where I'm not going "full swing" and hope for the best. :) I have had solid results going either way...I've also had a lot of terrible results. Because I suck.
 

DG_1234

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 29, 2015
Messages
5,794
Reaction score
1,675
Handicap
2
Then depending on how I'm hitting that day.....
This is a good point. Much of good golf is a player being aware of what his swing (or the environment such as temperature and wind ) is doing to the ball that day.
For example on a cold morning the stiffness of a player and , or, the cold temp may result in the ball carrying 10 to 15 yards shorter than usual. As the round progresses the player loosening up and, or, the temperature rising are factors to be considered when making club selections.
 

OldandStiff

Well-known member
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Jul 23, 2019
Messages
15,676
Reaction score
24,741
Location
AR
Handicap
+
My game management is based in mathematical decision making most of the time, so in that scenario I would be taking another club and aiming for what looks like about 156 yds on a well struck shot. Most mishits all the way to well struck puts you on the green, a bad one just a little short, and crushed one a few yards off the back. Rough odds say that results in the best outcome most often.
 

Reframmellator

Well-known member
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Feb 11, 2016
Messages
6,734
Reaction score
2,904
Location
Ballston Lake, NY
Handicap
22.0
I'm taking my 150 yard club. If I want to hit it short, I take a shorter club. I find I score better when I play for my average strike.
 

KingsKraken

Well-known member
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Nov 30, 2020
Messages
455
Reaction score
454
Location
Southwest WA
Handicap
High
I expect most amateur players consider their "stock 7-iron carry" to be the yardage from a well struck shot.
I’m sure some golfers with ego issues in their mental game do think that way, but I’m not sure it’s the majority. When I distanced my clubs for the first time, it seemed pretty obvious that my carry numbers should be based on the distance I hit the most often, and not the few longer shots which I couldn’t reproduce on command.
 

Chasing72

Well-known member
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Dec 9, 2019
Messages
493
Reaction score
315
Location
Lower Mainland BC
Handicap
16
If you club yourself so that a very well struck shot carries to the back of the green, the ball will not end up in trouble long.
Pretty much this. I was reading "The Distance Control Strategy " by Adam Young and this is what he says. More often than not people do not strike perfectly but obviously if you do, you don't want to be long so base your shot on perfect strike being to the back of the green and more than likely you will be in / around the middle.
 
Last edited:

millsan1

Strike Hard. Strike Fast. Hit long. CobraKai
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Jul 16, 2018
Messages
3,408
Reaction score
2,556
Location
Eastern PA
Handicap
12.2
I play all my shots to my 80% chance of success. If it goes long or short because of the 20%, then so be it. I try to not play for the "if I pure this one" shot.
 

Daddio

Well-known member
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Nov 20, 2013
Messages
5,278
Reaction score
928
Location
SW Mizzou
Handicap
11
In the specific situation described (which aligns with my game shockingly well), I'm hitting the 7 iron. My reasoning is that there's no guarantee that a poorly struck 6 iron will end up better than a poorly struck 7 iron, but a well struck 6 iron will have me off the back of the green. The "club up and take an easy swing" approach never seems to work out for me. The easier I try to be, the more I typically screw it up.
You make a point that is often not considered. Plus it's likely that golfer who mishits 70% of his 7 irons might very well mishit 75% or 80% of his 6 irons.
 

DG_1234

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 29, 2015
Messages
5,794
Reaction score
1,675
Handicap
2
I’m sure some golfers with ego issues in their mental game do think that way, but I’m not sure it’s the majority.
Do you believe the majority of amateurs consistently leave their ball short of the green ?
 

Greg Kulbick

I don't golf good
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Dec 12, 2012
Messages
14,062
Reaction score
2,448
Location
Tallahassee, FL
Handicap
13.9 USGA
I expect every shot to produce the planned results.
 

Drumdog

Drummin' for golf
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Aug 4, 2010
Messages
16,697
Reaction score
1,962
Location
Liberty Lake, Washington
Handicap
GHIN 5.5
I never "expect" to mis hit the ball.
For this shot I would pull out the 8 iron and hit a smoooooth one to the middle of the green.
 

KingsKraken

Well-known member
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Nov 30, 2020
Messages
455
Reaction score
454
Location
Southwest WA
Handicap
High
Do you believe the majority of amateurs consistently leave their ball short of the green ?
I have no idea. When I go to the range with my 7 irons though, and watch my ball land both short and long of, but generally centered on, the 150 marker, I’m not going to think “My 7 iron carry is 165” just because I got there once or twice. Using those statistical outliers entirely defeats the purpose of estimating my club distance. Maybe this is a case where something that’s obvious to me isn’t to others, but I don’t believe that the average amateur golfer lacks this basic understanding of statistics. I do believe that some will fool themselves into writing down a carry of 165 because of ego.

Plus, speaking from the perspective of a high handicap golfer that doesn’t have the control that you do with a 2 handicap, I’m not expecting to hit the green from 150 very often anyway, much less hold it if I do. I’m certainly trying to hit the green, but that’s maybe a 33% proposition for me at best. I’m just as likely to miss right or left as I am to come up short or long. From 150+, I’m trying to get in the vicinity of the green. If I happen to actually land on it, that’s just a bonus.
 

roobs88

Active member
Albatross 2021 Club
Joined
Aug 17, 2020
Messages
69
Reaction score
105
The last time I faced this situation I had a full wedge to the green but I wasn’t striking them well, so took 9i aiming for a smooth 90% swing.. and absolutely pearled it well over the back, OB.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

DG_1234

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 29, 2015
Messages
5,794
Reaction score
1,675
Handicap
2

Welcome to The Hackers Paradise

Don't just play golf, live it!

Register Log in
Top