do you expect to mishit the ball ?

[JZ777]

Hit your usual club for distance to the pin. Swing with confidence with no negative thoughts.

 

[JonMA1]

Your ball lay in the fairway, 150 yards from a center of the green hole location. Good lie, level terrain, no wind. Front edge of the green is 140 yards, back edge of the green is 165 yards.

A seriously mishit 7-iron carries 120 to 130 yards.
A slightly mishit 7-iron for you carries 130 to 140 yards.
A well struck 7-iron carries 145 yards.
A very well struck-pure 7-iron carries 155 yards.

Your game is at a level where seven swings out of ten you either slightly mishit or seriously mishit the ball. Do you club yourself hoping/expecting for one of the three out of ten swings that will carry 145 to 155 yards? Or do you club yourself expecting a mishit and carry the ball 130 yards ?

I plan on a slight mishit. Other than to make a point, I don't think it's useful to combine slightly mishit shots with seriously mishit shots in the same 70 percentage. They are two completely different results. It can be the difference between a GIR/short chip and a penalty. We'd better have some idea of what our odds are of each.

If you club yourself so that a very well struck shot carries to the back of the green, the ball will not end up in trouble long.

It may be these topics are not intended for someone at my level, but I think some better players underestimate the range of a high capper's "typical" (slight mishit) vs "pured" shots. In my case, "typical" would be 140 yards for my 7i - which is what I consider ok contact and what you refer to as a slight mishit. I will occasionally get as much as 165 (pured) and as little as 110 (seriously mishit) from that club.

To your point however, I don't consider those more extreme possibilities when pulling club. While there is a better chance of duffing a shot than there is puring one, with few exceptions I can't play this game thinking about either. What I do consider is what trouble is left and right as much as what's long. Here's a good example...



Imagine you hit short 18% of the time with an 8i - the largest percentage of the 4 possible misses. Common internet golf forum wisdom says pull more club. But consider the fact that misses left (13%), right 11%), and long (8%) combine for a much greater majority of missed greens. Combine that with the fact that as I pull more club - even if I swing easily - those three percentages of misses increase.

Anything outside that red line is a penalty - and I HATE penalties on short par 3's. So I'm pulling the club that will get me the distance (with a slight mishit) to the front of the green and aligning slightly left. Is there a chance I'll duff it and hit into the swamp in front? Sure. But with my left to right dispersion, I'm going to assume contact will be good enough to carry it. Internet golf forum wisdom also stats that GIRs are king. But at my level and on protected greens like this, I'll gladly miss short all day every day and accept the probably bogey with the possibility I might miss slightly right and long and have a chance for par or even birdie.

Please convince me that pulling a 7i is better strategy with my game on this green and I'll do my best to keep an open mind.

 

[DG_1234]

Please convince me that pulling a 7i is better strategy with my game on this green and I'll do my best to keep an open mind.

For club selection, the most helpful thing I can do is encourage you to consider that too little club harms the swing and that more club benefits the swing.
In other words, the stress of knowing one needs to make a a near perfect strike (to reach the target) naturally harms the swing. In contrast, a player knowing he has "plenty of club" is relatively relaxed, and this helps him make better tempo, smoother rhythm swings.
I appreciate your taking the time to post a photo of a well protected par 3 green, and I respect your logic in trying to avoid penalties, but (again) I encourage you to consider the relevance of club selection to the swing a player actually makes. It is certainly possible that if when working your way around the golf course you adopted the habit of always taking one more club, before long you would notice your swing tempo-rhythm improves, your shot consistency improves, and you become less fearful of well protected green par 3 holes.

 

[JB]

That's when I look at my Shot Scope and KNOW what my average distance is.

An interesting parallel glossed over is that as clubs lofts get lower and the shafts get longer, choosing an extra club can also increase dispersion, not just make it better as is being suggested

 

[Turtlerancher]

An interesting parallel glossed over is that as clubs lofts get lower and the shafts get longer, choosing an extra club can also increase dispersion, not just make it better as is being suggested

Unless they do the Jedi One Length move.

 

[Lou W]

An uphill and side hill lie, ball above my feet, is notorious for giving me fits.

 

[JonMA1]

In other words, the stress of knowing one needs to make a a near perfect strike (to reach the target) naturally harms the swing

I really do appreciate the advice @DG_1234 .

Again, I'm not sure how aware you are of the level of golf some of us play. It might be that your advice it relevant to a mid-capper, in which case I'll butt out.

I thought I was pretty clear in my post, but I don't play with the expectation nor the need to make a near perfect strike. So there is not stress in that regard. While those types of shots are enjoyable, the distance that comes about from them is not what I've planned for. Good contact with a straight ball flight will almost never hurt my score, but those results are not a necessity. There is no need in my game for perfect strikes because I don't build my game plan around them.

Too many folks believe that clubbing up is the solution to high scores and that simply is not the case with some of us. I tried it for almost all of the 2020 season.

It is certainly possible that if when working your way around the golf course you adopted the habit of always taking one more club, before long you would notice your swing tempo-rhythm improves, your shot consistency improves, and you become less fearful of well protected green par 3 holes.

I do agree with improving tempo and rhythm, but everyone's issues are unique. What you refer to as fear I refer to as a good understanding of my weaknesses.

 

[Badger_Golfer]

If after a few rounds of golf you have struck ten 7-iron shots, approximately how many of those shots leave the ball short of the green?

Not many, maybe 1 out of 10. I'm more likely to hit it long or miss left than I am to leave it short.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

 

[rxk9fan]

I once read that Dave Pelz wrote that amateurs approach shots were short of the pin between 80% and 95% of the time depending on club in hand. When you think back carefully, how many balls in your group end up past the pin in a round? In honesty, we usually plan on that well struck shot that will get us to the pin, and never past it. Then, every swing not well struck comes up short. Using his data, 80% of wedge approach shots come up short, so that is how often we slightly or greatly miss with our wedges. With a long approach, Dave said we hit the club less than ideally 95% of the time and we will come up short on those.
I think we need to consider our less than ideal distance and concentrate on how far we usually hit it. For example, on Trackman my longest 7i out of 10 shots was a carry of 158. My average was 151 with 146 as the worst. I am not going to anticipate hitting my worst shot, but it is probably just as bad of an idea to play for my best on every shot. Seems prudent to play to the average.

 

[DG_1234]

Not many, maybe 1 out of 10. I'm more likely to hit it long or miss left than I am to leave it short.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Your case is rare. The good news is that your club selection strategy is not harming your game.

 

[DG_1234]

I once read that Dave Pelz wrote that amateurs approach shots were short of the pin between 80% and 95% of the time depending on club in hand. When you think back carefully, how many balls in your group end up past the pin in a round? In honesty, we usually plan on that well struck shot that will get us to the pin, and never past it. Then, every swing not well struck comes up short. Using his data, 80% of wedge approach shots come up short, so that is how often we slightly or greatly miss with our wedges. With a long approach, Dave said we hit the club less than ideally 95% of the time and we will come up short on those.
I think we need to consider our less than ideal distance and concentrate on how far we usually hit it. For example, on Trackman my longest 7i out of 10 shots was a carry of 158. My average was 151 with 146 as the worst. I am not going to anticipate hitting my worst shot, but it is probably just as bad of an idea to play for my best on every shot. Seems prudent to play to the average.

The theme of your post is the reason for the OP. But, I do believe launch monitors could be causing misunderstandings and, or, misguiding players about their realistic on course carry distances. For example a TXG You Tube awhile back featured a hacker fit video, and the player introduced himself claiming an "average 6-iron distance" of 160 yards. But when he made swings during the video his faulty pass at the ball revealed a 130 yard carry 6-iron player. So I have no idea where he got the idea his average 6-iron carry was 160 yards. I do believe that if he was clubbing himself with a 6-iron to a 160 yard target he would consistently leave his ball 20 to 30 yards short of the green, which is not uncommon for average amateur play.

 

[leftshot]

How many times have we been told to select our club based on the distance it usually travels and not the one time it was struck perfectly?

 

[InTheRough]

No. I don't expect to mishit the shot.

 

[jbuck31]

your game is at a level where seven swings out of ten you either slightly mishit or seriously mishit the ball.

If my game is at a point as described here, my 7 iron is not the club to get to 150 yds. I would have to go with a 6 iron.

 

[USAF Retired]

I pick the club I hit whatever distance I need.

Never expect or play for a mishit because for me, seems most greens are easier to approach from coming up short.

maybe I misunderstood the question

 

[DG_1234]

At this thread as well as the recent "do you know your carry distances?" thread it seems many of the replies use "solid shot" as criteria for collecting carry yardage numbers. I think if a player strikes a solid shot only 50% of the time that may mean his ball comes up short of the green 50% of the time, so why use it when figuring carry yardage ?
Also, for those using a launch monitor at a rage or fitting studio etc.... hitting consecutive shots with one club promotes more solid shots than would a golf course environment.
I think these are probably the reasons there may be a disconnect between perceived personal carry yardages and hitting greens. For the decades I've played golf players leaving balls 10 to 30 yards short of the greens is a very common sight. It's not unusual to see an entire foursome chipping/pitching from in front of the greens all day long.

 

[blugold]

At this thread as well as the recent "do you know your carry distances?" thread it seems many of the replies use "solid shot" as criteria for collecting carry yardage numbers. I think if a player strikes a solid shot only 50% of the time that may mean his ball comes up short of the green 50% of the time, so why use it when figuring carry yardage ?
Also, for those using a launch monitor at a rage or fitting studio etc.... hitting consecutive shots with one club promotes more solid shots than would a golf course environment.
I think these are probably the reasons there may be a disconnect between perceived personal carry yardages and hitting greens. For the decades I've played golf players leaving balls 10 to 30 yards short of the greens is a very common sight. It's not unusual to see an entire foursome chipping/pitching from in front of the greens all day long.

It's not uncommon for golfers to not know how far they actually hit the ball. It's also common human/golfer nature to overestimate their ability. Earlier, you posted:

If seven out of ten swings the player's 7-iron carry is 130 yards he should choose the 7-iron for a 150 yard target ? Even though this means his ball will come up short of the green seven out of ten times ?

If that is the case, if a golfer hits 70% of their 7irons 130 yards, their 7 iron is their 130 yard club. Too many, myself included, play to the exception instead of their norm.

 

[DG_1234]

It's not uncommon for golfers to not know how far they actually hit the ball. It's also common human/golfer nature to overestimate their ability. Earlier, you posted:


If that is the case, if a golfer hits 70% of their 7irons 130 yards, their 7 iron is their 130 yard club. Too many, myself included, play to the exception instead of their norm.

To that, the reason I titled this thread " do you expect to mishit the ball?" was not to suggest a player have negative thoughts. It was to consider thinking realistically about carry yardages when selecting a club, so that more greens may be hit. Truly knowing carry yardages and, or, shot tendencies is not negative thinking, it's realistic thinking which helps shot making and scoring.

 

[V14_Heels]

So speaking very high level here. When you guys look at your carries into a FLAT green. How much roll are you anticipating? See I wouldn't even really know how to use my carry distances even if they were consistent enough. I have no concept of how much a ball rolls on a fairway vs. a green, and then obviously there's a trillion variables from there weather, slope etc. But like how are you guys using that carry?

 

[DG_1234]

. I have no concept of how much a ball rolls on a fairway vs. a green, and then obviously there's a trillion variables from there weather, slope etc. But like how are you guys using that carry?

Don't sell yourself short. If you play golf and , or, watch televised golf you have a good sense for a ball's bounce and roll.
In general, a player observes and learns during the first few holes of a round the fairway and greens conditions for that day, and then plays shots accordingly.

 

[TheLetterSee]

At the Cleveland event a few years ago Jamie Sadlowski had some great advice that somewhat relates to this. "Never aim where a straight shot gets you in trouble". He was talking more about someone who doesn't normally hit straight with a driver off the tee but it works here too. I don't pick the club that if I hit a good one will fly the green. 9/10 times around here you're better short than long so if a good one gets to the pin but a bad one leaves me short I'd take those chances instead of a bad one being perfect and a great strike being over.

 

[DG_1234]

you're better short than long so if a good one gets to the pin but a bad one leaves me short I'd take those chances instead of a bad one being perfect and a great strike being over.

Why not club for a perfect strike leaving the ball at the back of the green ?

 

[TheLetterSee]

Why not club for a perfect strike leaving the ball at the back of the green ?

You're right. the ideal shot would be perfect strike at the back. I was more so talking about not pin hunting like I used to do. If I hit four 7 irons that day and all of them were not great. On that 5th shot if it was the exact distance of my bad strikes for the day I'd still pull it then send it over the back.

 

[JB]

You're right. the ideal shot would be perfect strike at the back. I was more so talking about not pin hunting like I used to do. If I hit four 7 irons that day and all of them were not great. On that 5th shot if it was the exact distance of my bad strikes for the day I'd still pull it then send it over the back.

Of course that would mean that your perfect shot wouldn't result in "greatness". I think its important to know one's strengths and weaknesses, but playing for less great shots is not something that most golfers that aren't playing for a living should strive for in my opinion.

 

[Badger_Golfer]

Your case is rare. The good news is that your club selection strategy is not harming your game.

Yeah, Ive been told by several instructors that my misses are a, "better player's miss" in that I have to work to avoid the left side of the golf course. I suppose thats nice to hear but Im still a 15 handicap over here. LOL