Scratch golfer in the fairway, 150 yards from the pin

[leftshot]

The professional pin locations, green speeds, and green difficulty, is far greater than your average muni or decent club.

This is a very, very important point.

 

[YukonLiving]

Very interesting! I’d have guessed somewhere in around 30’.

 

[BigMac]

The professional pin locations, green speeds, and green difficulty, is far greater than your average muni or decent club.

The skill level of PGA Tour golfers is also several orders of magnitude greater than those playing your average muni or decent club.

And in the OP it was stated "Assume the approach into the green is of average difficulty", so we're not talking about scratch golfers firing at Tour greens.

 

[DataDude]

I voted 40 feet although on a good day that would be a miss from 150 yards. Not all days are good ball striking days, lol.

When we talk averages we are definitely talking different than expectations for sure. I would guess most scratch golfers expect a nice look at birdie from 150 and probably get one 30%-60% of the time, but the bottom 10% of results are the ones that can really pull an average down. Chunk one 60-70 yards from there and leave it 80 yards short and a golfer just added 240' to the numerator on one shot. That means if that golfer holed out there next 5 shots from 150 they averaged 40' proximity for those 6 shots.

 

[HarlettoScara]

I would have to say between 30 and 40 feet. Without a doubt they would want and even expect to get it much closer to that, but on average I'm definitely going 30-40. Hell, from 150 even I would be looking at putting it closer than that, however I would not regularly achieve it!

 

[foreputt]

I went for 40', although agree that we would all want to hit it closer and expect a scratch player to do that.
Much like others have posted I think we all get wrapped up it perception v reality, watching tv we see the pros knocking it in close what looks like all the time, until you realise that quite often editors are showing you the highlights and a pro hitting it 40' from the pin from 150yds isn't a highlight unless its a slow golf day...
I will remain disappointed only hitting it 40' from the pin from 150yds but that's the joy of golf

 

[Tywithay]

The skill level of PGA Tour golfers is also several orders of magnitude greater than those playing your average muni or decent club.

And in the OP it was stated "Assume the approach into the green is of average difficulty", so we're not talking about scratch golfers firing at Tour greens.

Yeah, but people are using the tour proximity as a reference point. What is considered average difficulty?

 

[DataDude]

I went for 40', although agree that we would all want to hit it closer and expect a scratch player to do that.
Much like others have posted I think we all get wrapped up it perception v reality, watching tv we see the pros knocking it in close what looks like all the time, until you realise that quite often editors are showing you the highlights and a pro hitting it 40' from the pin from 150yds isn't a highlight unless its a slow golf day...
I will remain disappointed only hitting it 40' from the pin from 150yds but that's the joy of golf

We are also watching the leaders on TV and not the guys sucking it up that missed the cut Friday LOL. From watching PGA Tour Live and the featured group coverage on Thursday and Friday you really start to understand more how pro's really play. IMO we overestimate the quality of Tour ballstriking and underestimate their short game.

Being a statistician what makes people perceive that they average much better than they really do is that the distribution of shots is positively skewed. The graph would look similar to the below graph. The most likely outcome is the mode and for most scratch golfers that would probably be between 15 and 25 feet. The median would be the result right in the middle of results and that would probably be somewhere between 20 and 30 feet for most scratch golfers. The problem with average proximity is the tail can be horrendously bad and drag the average much higher.

 

[Tywithay]

We are also watching the leaders on TV and not the guys sucking it up that missed the cut Friday LOL. From watching PGA Tour Live and the featured group coverage on Thursday and Friday you really start to understand more how pro's really play. IMO we overestimate the quality of Tour ballstriking and underestimate their short game.

Being a statistician what makes people perceive that they average much better than they really do is that the distribution of shots is positively skewed. The graph would look similar to the below graph. The most likely outcome is the mode and for most scratch golfers that would probably be between 15 and 25 feet. The median would be the result right in the middle of results and that would probably be somewhere between 20 and 30 feet for most scratch golfers. The problem with average proximity is the tail can be horrendously bad and drag the average much higher.

I think "average" is the word that gets lost a little. If you hit a great shot 2 feet from the pin, the next shot may be 80 feet away. That puts the average in the middle around 40'. It seems some folks are treating it like the poll means they'd always be putting from 40 feet.

 

[USAF Retired]

I picked 40' Can't see it being much better, although we'd all hope to be closer

 

[tahoebum]

When we talk averages we are definitely talking different than expectations for sure. I would guess most scratch golfers expect a nice look at birdie from 150 and probably get one 30%-60% of the time, but the bottom 10% of results are the ones that can really pull an average down. Chunk one 60-70 yards from there and leave it 80 yards short and a golfer just added 240' to the numerator on one shot. That means if that golfer holed out there next 5 shots from 150 they averaged 40' proximity for those 6 shots.

Golfers tend to remember their good days and/or shots and process that as “normal” just as they discard there bad drives when coming up with their driving distance average. I often keep track on my scorecard of proximity on approach shots and had days last summer where I hit 8+ approaches inside of 20 feet and other days where I missed multiple greens in a round from 100 yards. Golf is hard.

 

[Scorp]

I said 20'. I would think a scratch golfer is pretty good. Not PGA/LPGA tour or Korn Ferry tour good, but pretty good.

 

[SunnyWalker]

The professional pin locations, green speeds, and green difficulty, is far greater than your average muni or decent club.

I agree. The scratch players I've played with, playing to easier pins are going to eat up that shot. I voted 30 feet but I think all those guys would expect to hit it closer.

 

[SunnyWalker]

The professional pin locations, green speeds, and green difficulty, is far greater than your average muni or decent club.

I agree. The scratch players I've played with, playing to easier pins are going to eat up that shot.

 

[Smiter]

When we talk averages we are definitely talking different than expectations for sure. I would guess most scratch golfers expect a nice look at birdie from 150 and probably get one 30%-60% of the time, but the bottom 10% of results are the ones that can really pull an average down. Chunk one 60-70 yards from there and leave it 80 yards short and a golfer just added 240' to the numerator on one shot. That means if that golfer holed out there next 5 shots from 150 they averaged 40' proximity for those 6 shots.

Damnit. I thought we discussed we would NOT discuss my mud/chunk game. Or dry/chunk game.

 

[Lions81]

Somewhere in the 30-40 foot range I'd call an average shot. In perfect conditions etc, definitely closer to 30 than 40.

 

[TCB2010]

Not sure what your handicap is but unless you have a better than scratch wedge game prepare to being tossing a lot of clubs this year.

I gotta admit, when I seen the topic header I said ok I’ll play, BUT, I was waiting for you to drop the stat like you did.

 

[doc53]

As some have stated, the mode is much more informative for professional or scratch golfers.

 

[greenOak]

I gotta admit, when I seen the topic header I said ok I’ll play, BUT, I was waiting for you to drop the stat like you did.

Well do you disagree with the stat?

 

[TCB2010]

Well do you disagree with the stat?

The 91 yard stat in 3?
shot 1- from 91
shot 2- putt
shot 3- putt
I don’t know if I’m going to put it in the same category as solid, again I’m kind of expecting to hole it in 3.

 

[leftshot]

So, I'm a scratch golfer and I'm going to bare my soul. For this discussion I kept track of my approach distances and proximity to the pin after each approach shot I played today.

Hole Approach Proximity
#1 100 Y 12 feet
#2 180 Y 15 feet
#3 150 Y 50 feet
#4 180 Y 10 feet
#5 80 Y 8 feet
#6 100 Y 25 feet
#7 190 Y 10 feet
#8 185 Y 50 feet
#9 200 Y 40 feet
#10 75 Y 20 feet
#11 200 Y 40 feet
#12 110 Y 30 feet
#13 170 Y 50 feet
#14 175 Y 30 feet
#15 130 Y 15 feet
#16 190 Y 30 feet
#17 65 Y 8 feet
#18 190 Y 50 feet

Lots of ways to slice and dice this data. Keep in mind these are from various yardages, not all or even most from around 150 yards. Additionally, this is a mountain course and these approach yardages do not take into account slope.

Given this, here are a few ways to slice the data, then the rest of you number crunchers can go wild.

The average proximity after all 18 approach shots is 27.4 yards. The median is between 25 and 30 feet (because of an even number of holes). There are four approach shots around 150 yards +/- 30 yards and the average proximity to the hole for those four was 22.5 feet. I consider all of those approaches that ended up 50 feet from the hole significant misses and one of those was a 150 yard approach shot. Having said that they are certainly not my worst misses. As one of the other posters stated, it only takes one really bad miss to move the averages significantly. But in my case, those only happen once every few rounds and when it does happen it's only going to be at this approach yardage occasionally.

When I have compared my stats to other scratch golfers, I'm below average on driving distance, about average on approach shots, short game including putting above average.

 

[OldandStiff]

So, I'm a scratch golfer and I'm going to bare my soul. For this discussion I kept track of my approach distances and proximity to the pin after each approach shot I played today.

Hole Approach Proximity
#1 100 Y 12 feet
#2 180 Y 15 feet
#3 150 Y 50 feet
#4 180 Y 10 feet
#5 80 Y 8 feet
#6 100 Y 25 feet
#7 190 Y 10 feet
#8 185 Y 50 feet
#9 200 Y 40 feet
#10 75 Y 20 feet
#11 200 Y 40 feet
#12 110 Y 30 feet
#13 170 Y 50 feet
#14 175 Y 30 feet
#15 130 Y 15 feet
#16 190 Y 30 feet
#17 65 Y 8 feet
#18 190 Y 50 feet

Lots of ways to slice and dice this data. Keep in mind these are from various yardages, not all or even most from around 150 yards. Additionally, this is a mountain course and these approach yardages do not take into account slope.

Given this, here are a few ways to slice the data, then the rest of you number crunchers can go wild.

The average proximity after all 18 approach shots is 27.4 yards. The median is between 25 and 30 feet (because of an even number of holes). There are four approach shots around 150 yards +/- 30 yards and the average proximity to the hole for those four was 22.5 feet. I consider all of those approaches that ended up 50 feet from the hole significant misses and one of those was a 150 yard approach shot. Having said that they are certainly not my worst misses. As one of the other posters stated, it only takes one really bad miss to move the averages significantly. But in my case, those only happen once every few rounds and when it does happen it's only going to be at this approach yardage occasionally.

When I have compared my stats to other scratch golfers, I'm below average on driving distance, about average on approach shots, short game including putting above average.

That's a really interesting collection of shots because it looks like the average approach distance is right about 150. You said you're below your peers in driving distance, but it seems like a pretty decent distance you were playing. No big misses, but not a lot of high percentage birdie opportunities either. Makes sense I suppose for scratch, depending on the course rating. Still though, 6.2% of total distance on approach is pretty low for a scratch golfer I think. Was that a typical round for you?

Man, this is making me want to do maths, but it's too late to start that nonsense.