Stock Market & Retirement Planning

[dhartmann34]

I'm talking the people that RUN the companies and the stock brokers shorting because they know a helluva lot more than you and I.
It's easy to make money when you make the laws and rules and know what's coming. Why do you think they call Buffet the "Oracle of Omaha?"
That's how they do it. THEY know when to short. I don't advise it for you and I.
And what's with Apple? I never even mentioned Apple, so no idea what you are getting at mr tin foil.

Buffet's company has actually under performed the S&P 500 over the past 10 years or so.



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[OGputtnfool]

It's just typical retirement products that have some exposure, but limited.
I'm not really comfortable saying anything else on a public forum as I'm sure you can appreciate.

It's sad that you used to be able to go to a bank and get a 12-14% return as a reward for savings with a simple C.D.
Wall St. isn't so generous of late.

With interest rates that high on a CD, weren't interest rates higher on loans (auto, mortgage, etc.), too?

 

[blueonblack]

Buffet's company has actually under performed the S&P 500 over the past 10 years or so.



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More people in the game now doing the same things he used to. More competition. Just an example of one of the people in that echelon of money that was at the top of my head. Mobsters go legit. I know that sounds crazy, but they are all crooks all the way to the top. I mean, is CONgress really a friend to any of us?

I like some stream of consciousness and free discourse in conversations. I'm not going to Google to research everything I say in life, so yeah, I'm fine with being "wrong" in the spirit of conversation and not a "who's more right" constant contest on everything.
I like to say and talk about things people don't often talk about. A different perspective. I realize. But take it or leave it.

 

[dhartmann34]

More people in the game now doing the same things he used to. More competition. Just an example of one of the people in that echelon of money that was at the top of my head. Mobsters go legit. I know that sounds crazy, but they are all crooks all the way to the top. I mean, is CONgress really a friend to any of us?

I like some stream of consciousness and free discourse in conversations. I'm not going to Google to research everything I say in life, so yeah, I'm fine with being "wrong" in the spirit of conversation and not a "who's more right" constant contest on everything.
I like to say and talk about things people don't often talk about. A different perspective. I realize. But take it or leave it.

I'm fine with that. I'm just interested to research, discuss and learn more. I love this stuff.... More than golf!

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[Crapgame]

Ever notice how easy it is for some? Especially the tech stocks once again like the last tech bubbles. Only they have diversified wildly in the background. They're funding all sorts of stuff in the shadows right now. Scary stuff. Like private armies.

I think that is inaccurate. Look at the quantity of tech IPOs compared to previous bubbles. If anything, the bubble is in the biotech and Pharma market. There's been a plethora of those coming out and COVID has only amplified dollars going towards novel medicines and therapies. On the tech side, there's been a much greater bias to stay private longer, which translates into larger IPOs (valuation-wise), but not higher volumes.

From all the transactions I'm seeing lately, it feels like everyone is shorting. It's all so volatile. What else can they do?

How do you explain the rally post-April if everyone is shorting? One massive short squeeze?

 

[Crapgame]

It's sad that you used to be able to go to a bank and get a 12-14% return as a reward for savings with a simple C.D.

You were also paying high-teens interest on your mortgage. You can borrow at sub-3% now with the right structure. Everything is relative.

 

[Crapgame]

Private equity funds? REITs?

Do you really want to be in REITs right now? Historically it has been a great asset class, but COVID has completely flipped real estate value on its head. Class A properties with sub-5 cap rates have to be under water. Retail is a dog, restaurants are terrible, multi-family and urban - who knows... but they look poor in the short-term.

PE is attractive, but expected returns are coming down considerably and the investment is highly illiquid.

 

[blueonblack]

With interest rates that high on a CD, weren't interest rates higher on loans (auto, mortgage, etc.), too?

I know people that did ARM's in the 80's that were I wanna say 25-28%? So yeah.
BUT...my parent's first house in the 70's was $23K and NICE. You could pay it off in your lifetime even without college degrees. Just seemed like more honest times. Try to get a nice car for that now!

 

[blueonblack]

You were also paying high-teens interest on your mortgage. You can borrow at sub-3% now with the right structure. Everything is relative.

That's why I alluded to the ridiculous .01% that the banks get to trade it at too.
How many years to pay off the mortgage now though, if ever? The housing costs are so convoluted, I'm not sure its even comparable now? Too much of people's income % go to that now, comparably.
Real Estate one of the biggest lobbyists in Congress.

 

[OGputtnfool]

I know people that did ARM's in the 80's that were I wanna say 25-28%? So yeah.
BUT...my parent's first house in the 70's was $23K and NICE. You could pay it off in your lifetime even without college degrees. Just seemed like more honest times. Try to get a nice car for that now!

$23k in 1979 dollars is equivalent to $87,302.84 in 2020 dollars. I'm sure you could find a great car for that. House? Not so much.

 

[blueonblack]

$23k in 1979 dollars is equivalent to $87,302.84 in 2020 dollars. I'm sure you could find a great car for that. House? Not so much.

So much is priced with the intent that you will never OWN it, however. The business models all reflect this.
Look at the car companies now. They'll sell you that $80K Escalade and take it back as soon as you can't make those payments and you'll have nothing to show for it. they even give you another year to accumulate the debt payment free. Then they sell it pre-owned at higher finance rates to the next guy and still make money on it.
Have you seen the commercials?
$23K was 1970, by the way.

 

[OGputtnfool]

So much is priced with the intent that you will never OWN it, however. The business models all reflect this.
Look at the car companies now. They'll sell you that $80K Escalade and take it back as soon as you can't make those payments and you'll have nothing to show for it. they even give you another year to accumulate the debt payment free. Then they sell it pre-owned at higher finance rates to the next guy and still make money on it.
Have you seen the commercials?

What commercials?

I agree, though, that we'll hardly own anything anymore. I mean, even after we "pay off" our house and/or cars, we still have to pay the gov't to allow us to keep them. We're soft. Our forefathers would weep if they knew what we'd done with their country.

 

[Crapgame]

That's why I alluded to the ridiculous .01% that the banks get to trade it at too.
How many years to pay off the mortgage now though, if ever? The housing costs are so convoluted, I'm not sure its even comparable now? Too much of people's income % go to that now, comparably.
Real Estate one of the biggest lobbyists in Congress.

We bought in 2014 and could nearly pay it off this year if we wanted. People obviously overpay and I'm not a financial advisor, but there is some magic number that many have reached about what people should be paying on a monthly basis (IIRC 20-30%?). If you stick within a reasonable range and your income appreciates, it should be doable to pay it off quicker, particularly if you aren't adding nearly as much interest.

 

[blueonblack]

What commercials?

I agree, though, that we'll hardly own anything anymore. I mean, even after we "pay off" our house and/or cars, we still have to pay the gov't to allow us to keep them. We're soft. Our forefathers would weep if they knew what we'd done with their country.

That's pretty much all the car companies now with "covid relief." I'm not sure they even CARE if people HAVE a job to give them a car loan anymore.
Just sign them up for the debt and deal with it later. Yeah, one year no payments and they'll let you out of the loan at that point if you lose your job, etc. I think is how they're working it. So if you default, they take the car, continue to make money on your remaining debt, and then sell it used/pre-owned at higher aggressive consumer rates to the next guy. Criminals all. The car industry bailout in '08 was just a bailout of all those junk loans, not "saving" the industry. Well, it did, but it was for junk loan relief.

 

[blueonblack]

We bought in 2014 and could nearly pay it off this year if we wanted. People obviously overpay and I'm not a financial advisor, but there is some magic number that many have reached about what people should be paying on a monthly basis (IIRC 20-30%?). If you stick within a reasonable range and your income appreciates, it should be doable to pay it off quicker, particularly if you aren't adding nearly as much interest.

How many American consumers have your intellect and restraint, however?
Yeah, still possible if you don't insist on the "McMansion" and all that.
Home inventories are tough right now. Been looking for a number of years. So everyone is overpaying. All part of this game.

 

[JB]

Some of this stuff is fascinating.

In one breath, damn the government and big business for getting involved.
Then the next breath, how dare we allow people to make choices in what to buy and what not to.

 

[Crapgame]

How many American consumers have your intellect and restraint, however?
Yeah, still possible if you don't insist on the "McMansion" and all that.
Home inventories are tough right now. Been looking for a number of years. So everyone is overpaying. All part of this game.

Yes, inventory levels are a major problem, particularly as there was a re-urbanization shift that has been quickly reversed by COVID. Everything in our area is getting rebuilt into houses that are double the size of ours, but 3-4x the cost. If we are serious about moving, we'll likely have to leave the current neighborhood.

 

[blueonblack]

Yes, inventory levels are a major problem, particularly as there was a re-urbanization shift that has been quickly reversed by COVID. Everything in our area is getting rebuilt into houses that are double the size of ours, but 3-4x the cost. If we are serious about moving, we'll likely have to leave the current neighborhood.

I just love the idea of downsizing now and paying out the wazoo for a smaller residence, let me tell ya....
I can't believe the stuff on this side of town, either. Big ugly $1 million boxes (I'm on the east side of town)

 

[Crapgame]

I just love the idea of downsizing now and paying out the wazoo for a smaller residence, let me tell ya....
I can't believe the stuff on this side of town, either. Big ugly $1 million boxes (I'm on the east side of town)

STP side?

 

[blueonblack]

STP side?

Whole life.

 

[Crapgame]

Whole life.

yea some nice and expensive areas over there too (HP, MacGrove, Woodbury)

 

[blueonblack]

yea some nice and expensive areas over there too (HP, MacGrove, Woodbury)

I'm 20 min north of St Paul.
My uncle is on the E side and came over one night to escape the gun fire during the riots.
We've talked about teaming up and doing a communal living thing.

 

[JB]

Let's keep this one on topic please.

Thank you.

 

[tahoebum]

It's been a great year for the FAANG stocks. Who would have guessed these stocks would be here when Covid hit in early March.

 

[Flipit]

It's been a great year for the FAANG stocks. Who would have guessed these stocks would be here when Covid hit in early March.

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Pretty much all of those companies are in my area. Not sure about Amazon but they sure are expanding and buying large chunks of land here. I work for one of them. I’ve been buying as of late.