The 2022 Goat Cup w/ Callaway Golf: Odds

JDax

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As the THP Calendar moves on, we arrive to an Experience that is a Team competition that involves some of the best personalities in the THP Universe with one of the best supporters of our community in Callaway Golf. Let's take a moment and preview what we are going to see starting on Sunday at Ballyhack Golf Club in Roanoke, VA. It's finally time for The Goat Cup!!!

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When & Where
August 14th-16th, 2022
Ballyhack Golf Club
Roanoke, VA

THP returns to one of the most pristine locations that it has visited, Ballyhack Golf Club. This location will provide a stern but fair test of golf. The back 9 is very different than the front, it will be the team that drives the ball best and keeps it in playable spots that will win The Goat Cup.

See here for a closer look at that the participants will be dealing with:



The Format:
Monday AM- 18 Holes: Shamble Format (Best Ball)
Monday PM - 18 Holes: Alternate Shot
Tuesday- Singles

I like this format, because I believe that this course lends itself to longer holed matches (especially that 2nd Nine). Because this format has 3 18 hole matches, there is 8 points available in total, 4' points wins the Goat Cup. What I'm super excited about is that Alternate Shot is not only included in the format, but it is contested over 18 holes, that is going to make for a fun time for those of us watching from home. There are some key matches in each stanza, and a popapolusa pairing going out to try and steal a point, what more could you ask for?


The Handicaps of the Teams:

Team Tudor- (Combined Handicap: 10.3)
Austin Tudor (1.7)
@Canadan (3.7)
@ccjimmy2001 (16.5)
@BuckNasty (19.4)

Team Finley- (Combined Handicap: 11.2)
Jason Finley (6.7)
@JB (9.3)
@pumbaa (26)
@smgoldstein (2.7)

On paper Team Tudor holds a slight edge on combined handicap front (10.3 to 11.2), it's close and if games travel well the conditions exist to give us a super tight competition that goes deep into Tuesday. Team Finley is lead by the destroyer of dreams, in @JasonFinleyCG, and sports 3 single digit players at their disposal. Team Tudor has not only Austin, but has LDax's favorite podcast host in Canadan, with a guy who has never lost a match at a THP event in BuckNasty. The participants will also be playing their own clubs, this will add some comfort & familiarity to the participants. All of these factors make for a very unpredictable event. There have been some attempts in some posts by members of Team Finley to lower expectations coming in, with both smgoldstein and pumbaa downplaying their progress coming in. JB played sparking in a losing effort at The Rivalry, can he continue that level of play? All of these questions will be answered by Tuesday afternoon.

Opening Odds:

Note: This is for entrainment proposes only, and to get some chatter built up about the Goat Cup. Not to hurt anyone's feelings.

I don't normally have the pairings for a whole experience when I do the odds, but this time I have the full docket. This makes it a little easier on me to set the line. If you look at the match odds, on chalk this line should be 6/5 or even money. But that would be boring. In the past, when Finley has made an appearance before The Grandaddy he hasn't played as well as his normal self. Finley tends to peak in December, but this is August, and while he is coming off of vacation (tan, rested, & ready) is his game ready? Looking at the docket, JB finds himself in 2 pivotal matches on Day 1. Can smgoldstein carry JB in Shamble like E1iterate did at The Rivalry? When looking at Team Tudor, you know what you are getting, two great ball strikers in Dan and Austin, a guy who has worked hard on his game in the lead up (ccjimmy2001) & a grinder's grinder with BuckNasty. The THP Universe has favored Team Tudor in the early action & so do I...

Team Odds of Winning the 2022 Goat Cup:
Team Tudor -150
Team Finley +125
(Ended in a Tie 4 to 4)

Day 1 Pairings & Odds: Shamble (2- Way)
Jason Finley & @pumbaa +155
@Canadan & @ccjimmy2001 -180 (W- 4&3)


Very important start, as this is the only time Dan and Finley draw each other in the experience. We will know right out of the gate, which Finley we are going to get, December Darth Finley or a version more beatable. Is Dan's driver still giving him fits? If not, watch out.

@JB & @smgoldstein -180
Austin Tudor & @BuckNasty +155 (W 1Up)


BuckNasty's defense of his THP match streak starts here in a spot that he's going to need to make his pops count. JB has played the course, paired with smgoldstein should be a formattable pairing to combat Austin from imposing his will. Very pivotal match in the opening stanza.

Day 1 Pairings & Odds: Alt Shot (2- Way)
Jason Finley & @JB -200 (W 3&1)
@BuckNasty & @ccjimmy2001 +165


Although as a Captain, I haven't had a lot of success throwing a pop'em & drop'em pairing out there, I still love when they happen. Team Finley absolutely expects a full point out of this match, anything less would be disappointing. If BuckNasty's streak survives the AM, this will be the ultimate test to keep it alive.

@smgoldstein & @pumbaa +235
@Canadan & Austin Tudor -280 (W 3&2)


Team Tudor sends out their 2 best, in a match where anything less than a full point would be considered failure. Team Finley counters with a Low/High (Highest in pumbaa) and hopes for the best. The 18 hole format doesn't do Team Finley any favors here.

Day 2 Pairings & Odds: Singles (2- Way)
Jason Finley -300 (W 6&4)
@BuckNasty +250


I know this spot that BuckNasty finds himself in, and I wish I could give him some advice on how to handle it, but I've got nothing. If this was Eliterate, I'd have something, but it's him & I've got nothing. Good Luck, Don't Die, & Try to Win. Prediction? Pain.
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JB -220 (W 4&3)
@ccjimmy2001 +180


Does fatigue set in on JB here, we know that Jimmy has put the work in, but can he make it pay off here?

@smgoldstein +135 (W 4&3)
Austin Tudor -150


On paper, should be match of the day. I'm expecting a slug fest.

@pumbaa +185
@Canadan -230 (W 7&6)


Dan is going to have to fade an avalanche of pops here, and sometimes that is very hard to do when it's at least 1 a hole. pumbaa will need to stay in holes and keep the ball in front of him to make the pops count.
 
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drp3434

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Brilliant. I know I'm taking the overall underdog in Team Finley, but I'll need to put some thought into all the individual match-ups. We'll done.
 

Deebo76

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He does it again @JDax !! Great job Cap
 

JDax

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Brilliant. I know I'm taking the overall underdog in Team Finley, but I'll need to put some thought into all the individual match-ups. We'll done.
At the match level, it looks very tight.
 

jvbart

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Thanks @JDax, I always look forward to these! Will be interesting to see everyone’s mental state coming out of day 1. Alt shot to finish off 36 is going to be a grind.
 

JDax

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Thanks @JDax, I always look forward to these! Will be interesting to see everyone’s mental state coming out of day 1. Alt shot to finish off 36 is going to be a grind.
A full 18 of Alt Shot, can’t wait to follow!!! Fun for us, a grind for them :cool:.
 

drp3434

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At the match level, it looks very tight.
Indeed it does. Another reason to take the overall odds with Team Finley.
 

JDax

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Indeed it does. Another reason to take the overall odds with Team Finley.
Like I said, I could have went really boring at -110 a piece, but that’s no fun.
 

Muchmore18

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Well done as always sir!!
 

checkered

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Ahh yeah. Always gets a little more real when the @JDax odds hit!! Good stuff! Thanks for doing this.

Really going to be fun to follow Team Finley win this!
 

jvbart

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A full 18 of Alt Shot, can’t wait to follow!!! Fun for us, a grind for them :cool:.
It’s going to be a great follow, I would think alt shot is a ton of pressure on the low caps but man it’s gotta be tough as a high cap to have someone have to follow some of the inevitable weird shots. Mental toughness has to carry that format.
 

fuffle master

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Always love the odds and matchup threads by @JDax

The odds favoring Team Tudor is justified, however I think the competitiveness of Finley and how he just comes to hit winners when it counts makes me leaning by bets on Team Finley. Plus, JB has been getting lessons and that can only mean trouble for Austin and Canadan.
 

BuckNasty

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I love that not only do you butcher forum names on your live videos but also in written form (Tutor instead of Tudor) haha.

Always love these write ups and appreciate the effort you put into them!

I also appreciate that I’m the underdog in all 3 matches (similar to every match in the 2019 Morgan Cup and 2021 Shaft Up #3).
 

blazinden

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Well done. I always like reading the odds writeup before a match up.
 

goalie

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JDax

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I love that not only do you butcher forum names on your live videos but also in written form (Tutor instead of Tudor) haha.

Always love these write ups and appreciate the effort you put into them!

I also appreciate that I’m the underdog in all 3 matches (similar to every match in the 2019 Morgan Cup and 2021 Shaft Up #3).
I’m just doing my part to keep the streak alive…
 

Canadan

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I love that not only do you butcher forum names on your live videos but also in written form (Tutor instead of Tudor) haha.

Always love these write ups and appreciate the effort you put into them!

I also appreciate that I’m the underdog in all 3 matches (similar to every match in the 2019 Morgan Cup and 2021 Shaft Up #3).
He’s clearly got it out for you.

…or maybe he’s flirting
 

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Coming in hot @JDax this was awesome…now I’m wide awake!!! Let’s go!!!!
 

Doubleb21

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Great write up @JDax i like these!
 

JDax

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JDax

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