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Playing to your handicap

ArmyGolf

ArmyGolf

#Rise&Grind
Albatross 2024 Club
Joined
Jun 7, 2012
Messages
33,217
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Location
BC
Handicap
7.3
I thought this could be an interesting discussion and I didn't want to clog up or detour any of the THP Event threads. Since THP hosts a ton of NET events there is always a ton of chatter regarding handicaps and what a golfer needs to do to be successful. Most competitors have a goal of "shooting to your cap" in tournaments and events as a barometer of whether or not they've played well, or left some on the table. Handicap as a measure of potential, NOT average score is how I've always understood it.

A local Pro I've talked to is adamant that a player with an accurate handicap will only shoot to that number 1/5 rounds, or 20% of the time. If this is true the only way to shoot to your number in a multi-round event is to be in the middle of a large handicap downswing at the time.

A quick google search spat out some more numbers I'm curious about. "A golfer should shoot within 3 strokes of 3-over his handicap over 50% of the time." Obviously course ratings and slopes will play into this quite a bit, but as a general rule it should discussable.

What say the minds of THP? Are these numbers accurate? Close? Bogus?
 
ArmyGolf said:
I thought this could be an interesting discussion and I didn't want to clog up or detour any of the THP Event threads. Since THP hosts a ton of NET events there is always a ton of chatter regarding handicaps and what a golfer needs to do to be successful. Most competitors have a goal of "shooting to your cap" in tournaments and events as a barometer of whether or not they've played well, or left some on the table. Handicap as a measure of potential, NOT average score is how I've always understood it.

A local Pro I've talked to is adamant that a player with an accurate handicap will only shoot to that number 1/5 rounds, or 20% of the time. If this is true the only way to shoot to your number in a multi-round event is to be in the middle of a large handicap downswing at the time.

A quick google search spat out some more numbers I'm curious about. "A golfer should shoot within 3 strokes of 3-over his handicap over 50% of the time." Obviously course ratings and slopes will play into this quite a bit, but as a general rule it should discussable.

What say the minds of THP? Are these numbers accurate? Close? Bogus?
Click to expand...
I am usually within 3 strokes no matter what course,slope rating ,distance (within reason). Of course I have times it gets sideways and is way higher and a few times a year I will beat my cap by 6. But for the most part I am always around the same I get there different ways each round but still the same end result.

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ArmyGolf said:
A quick google search spat out some more numbers I'm curious about. "A golfer should shoot within 3 strokes of 3-over his handicap over 50% of the time." Obviously course ratings and slopes will play into this quite a bit, but as a general rule it should discussable.

What say the minds of THP? Are these numbers accurate? Close? Bogus?
Click to expand...

I can agree to that, but I'm curious what others would say as I haven't been tracking a HC all that long.

I know my average strokes over par is something like 11.8, but that spit out an 8.4 HC. So as long as I play to around 12 over or less, I played my average and did ok. I'd also say that a good majority of my rounds to end the year last year were under 86, which would be that number of within 3 strokes above 3 over my HC.
 
I would say that the 50% within 3 shots of 3 over is accurate for me. That would be a 78, which in my last 20 rounds, I have 8 scores at 78 or better with 2 at 79. The math adds up, IMO.
 
I think your local pro is throwing generalizations out there. I've seen golfers who green light everything, and when on shoot 77 and when off shoot 97. In my case, I try to hit as many fairways and as many greens as possible, and rarely find myself in lots of trouble during my rounds. What I mean to say is, my skill range is MUCH closer to my handicap than my 77/97 friend.

There's no perfect logic to a handicap structure, but it is a nice definer of potential when playing, minus the things not considered like building a cap on a single course, playing easy courses, and playing different styles of courses/grasses.
 
Canadan said:
I think your local pro is throwing generalizations out there. I've seen golfers who green light everything, and when on shoot 77 and when off shoot 97. In my case, I try to hit as many fairways and as many greens as possible, and rarely find myself in lots of trouble during my rounds. What I mean to say is, my skill range is MUCH closer to my handicap than my 77/97 friend.

There's no perfect logic to a handicap structure, but it is a nice definer of potential when playing, minus the things not considered like building a cap on a single course, playing easy courses, and playing different styles of courses/grasses.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Since the handicap system only chooses the best 10 of your last 20 rounds a steady player could have the same cap as a volatile player, assuming their 10 best are similar.

The 20% rule is a generalization for sure. A player that is improving or catches a hot streak could very well shoot better than his cap two or three weeks in a row. I'm not sure how many rounds total one would need to constitute a proper sample size.
 
so currently my index is 3.3. my average scores are usually arount 78 to 82. i usually stay in that range whether i tip it out or play a shorter yardage. of course there are days when i shoot lower and there are days i go up to 85 to 86. so if i were to play to my number, id want it to be 75 to 78 or better i guess
 
ArmyGolf said:
I thought this could be an interesting discussion and I didn't want to clog up or detour any of the THP Event threads. Since THP hosts a ton of NET events there is always a ton of chatter regarding handicaps and what a golfer needs to do to be successful. Most competitors have a goal of "shooting to your cap" in tournaments and events as a barometer of whether or not they've played well, or left some on the table. Handicap as a measure of potential, NOT average score is how I've always understood it.

A local Pro I've talked to is adamant that a player with an accurate handicap will only shoot to that number 1/5 rounds, or 20% of the time. If this is true the only way to shoot to your number in a multi-round event is to be in the middle of a large handicap downswing at the time.

A quick google search spat out some more numbers I'm curious about. "A golfer should shoot within 3 strokes of 3-over his handicap over 50% of the time." Obviously course ratings and slopes will play into this quite a bit, but as a general rule it should discussable.

What say the minds of THP? Are these numbers accurate? Close? Bogus?
Click to expand...

The numbers turn out to be pretty close, and my own rounds have been pretty close to that. My best round of the last 20 for my handicap is 4.3 strokes lower than my handicap, and my average differential is 4 strokes higher than my handicap. 4 out of the 20 rounds were at or below my handicap. 13 of 20 rounds were within 3 of 3 over my handicap.

USGA'S handicap people say the same thing. If you're honest with posting your scores, your results should be fairly similar.

http://www.usga.org/handicapping-articles/how-well-should-you-play-25502.html
 
i average 12-16 strokes over par, but my handicap is 8.1 trending to 7.8. it's a consistency issue with me. i would agree that i only shoot my handicap 1/5 rounds. i would disagree that i shoot within 3 strokes of my handicap 50% of the time.
 
Great thread!

I went into US Handicap and looked at my last 29 full 18 hole rounds. I was essentially an 11 handicap for all of these rounds. I play a lot of different courses.

Differential at or below my handicap: 20.7% of rounds
Differential 1-4 shots over my handicap: 31% of rounds
Differential 5-7 shots over my handicap: 31% of rounds
Differential 8 or more shots over my handicap: 17.2% of rounds

The median score was 4.7 shots over my handicap.
 
My cap is currently sitting around a 15 I believe, and my average score (at away courses) is between 85-88. Frustratingly trying to break that 85 barrier when playing away from home.

Take that from a couple years ago, when my handicap was at 9.8 (but mainly from playing a home course for the majority of my scores), and my scoring was still in that 85-92 range.

Strangely my handicap has gone up, but my scoring spread has definitely tightened up a lot.
 
tequila4kapp said:
Great thread!

I went into US Handicap and looked at my last 29 full 18 hole rounds. I was essentially an 11 handicap for all of these rounds.

Differential at or below my handicap: 20.7% of rounds
Differential 1-4 shots over my handicap: 31% of rounds
Differential 5-7 shots over my handicap: 31% of rounds
Differential 8 or more shots over my handicap: 17.2% of rounds

The median score was 4.7 shots over my handicap.
Click to expand...

I avoided doing the same but only because my handicap has not moved with the winter lock. I don't think it's a real reflection of my game right now.

Do you think that'd impact your numbers as well?
 
I am within 3 over my index at least 80% of the time no matter where I play as long as the yardage is within 6600 yards. Not sure about over that yardage because I haven't played one in a long time and don't plan on it. My unspectacular game is pretty well suited for consistent scoring.
 
I'll know in a couple of months. Royal New Kent will host the DMV vs Carolinas Regional Rivalry. Slope for the white tees is 139, and at my current handicap (24.1) I can expect my course handicap to be a 30. Therefore, if I shoot a 102 (which I believe I am capable of doing), I will have shot to my handicap. It'll be a bit harder to judge whether I played to my handicap or not given the multiple formats, but I think I'll have a general idea.
 
Something I have not seen mentioned here is the difference between par and course rating. As a 10 handicap playing at a course with a par of 72 but a rating of 68 I rarely score 78 or better but often shoot about 82. Is the discussion about scoring net par or within 10 of my course rating?
 
Canadan said:
I avoided doing the same but only because my handicap has not moved with the winter lock. I don't think it's a real reflection of my game right now.

Do you think that'd impact your numbers as well?
Click to expand...
Tough question. Our season just reopened. My two rounds since then fall in the middle two quadrants. I was playing some of my better golf heading into the winter. Part of me wants to think I would have continued that trend and gone lower. Another part of me has to acknowledge that I got hurt and didn't work on my game through winter (first time in like 5 seasons) and my scores - if I could have played - probably would have gone up as a result.
 
The problem is that we all know this is a game of streaks. I can go out and shoot 10 strokes over my handicap one round then shoot at or below my handicap for the next 3 then to be followed by another round of 8+ strokes over. Guess that's why we're amateurs.


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I went through a period in 2010 where I watched my handicap drop significantly and quickly.

I began at about a 23 and it dropped to a 17.3 by the end of the season.

I got called every name in the book by guys in my club and it ticked me off.

I firmly believe that a handicap is only truly valid when you're not working at improving. I have gone through seasons where my handicap variation was a stroke or less because I didn't play often and wasn't practicing. I've also gone through seasons where I've fluctuated wildly in both directions.

Right now... I'm a 17.8 but I have posted several 'capable' scores that show me the work I'm putting in is helping me to improve. I hope to be in the 15 range by mid-summer and closer to 15 by the end of the season.

I guess most of the time, the 'within 3 strokes of +3' would apply... but I don't think it's fair to say that it's an all-or-nothing, set in stone rule.

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I went back and looked at the last three rounds I played. The within 3 of 3 over has held for those three rounds.

I have two rounds to shoot to my cap to see if the 1 in 5 stat holds :alien:

Regarding the notion of shooting to your cap, I'm of the mind that if you consistently play to your handicap, your handicap is too high.
 
Jeanthemachine said:
Something I have not seen mentioned here is the difference between par and course rating. As a 10 handicap playing at a course with a par of 72 but a rating of 68 I rarely score 78 or better but often shoot about 82. Is the discussion about scoring net par or within 10 of my course rating?
Click to expand...
That's something I also found unclear in this discussion. I think it has to be within course rating.
 
I always expect to play better than my handicap, but reality does like to keep it interesting. My handicap has progressively dropped since I started last year, and I hope that will continue. But scores can still vary, good and bad, more than I would like.
 
Jeanthemachine said:
Something I have not seen mentioned here is the difference between par and course rating. As a 10 handicap playing at a course with a par of 72 but a rating of 68 I rarely score 78 or better but often shoot about 82. Is the discussion about scoring net par or within 10 of my course rating?
Click to expand...

The course rating/slope and your handicap are used to compute your course handicap. It is possible to have a course 'cap above your normal 'cap with a course rating <72, if the slope is sufficiently high.
 
I really don't understand the system at all and just try to get to the end of the round in the fewest strikes possible. I just wished Bubba was always the first swing...that second shot after an ugly attempt is always good.
 
When I play I hope to be with in 3 of my average score. I worry less about the handicap but more about my average score. I feel that average score is better to go off of when playing someone.
 
JohnSinVA said:
I went back and looked at the last three rounds I played. The within 3 of 3 over has held for those three rounds.

I have two rounds to shoot to my cap to see if the 1 in 5 stat holds :alien:

Regarding the notion of shooting to your cap, I'm of the mind that if you consistently play to your handicap, your handicap is too high.
Click to expand...
I tend to agree with your last point , but keep in mind that anyone who consistently shoots to their Index will have a handicap that is dropping constantly.
 
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