Hurricane Michael

Jeez. This one just developed off the Yucatan or something? Wow, projected Cat 3 making landfall in the panhandle while scraping the gulf side. Unreal.
 
Yep, we'll be chopping midweek flights to Panama City and Pensacola soon.

If you have a flight in or out of Tampa on Wednesday, keep an eye on things. If it takes even a slight eastern turn, TPA will lose flights. Heck, if it strays east and cuts towards central FL, you'll lose most of southern FL (flight wise) as there will be very few flyable routes.
 
Glad this was posted because hadn't heard anything about it previously. Looks like if the projected path holds true, we in SW GA could get a lot of wind and rain starting Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Hope our brand new roof hold up well!
 
I'm going on a RTJ golf outing in Alabama starting Wednesday. That thing better not turn north!
 
Jeez. This one just developed off the Yucatan or something? Wow, projected Cat 3 making landfall in the panhandle while scraping the gulf side. Unreal.

Im so thankful our area does not get impacted very often by this stuff. I know knock on wood moment.
 
Yep, we'll be chopping midweek flights to Panama City and Pensacola soon.

If you have a flight in or out of Tampa on Wednesday, keep an eye on things. If it takes even a slight eastern turn, TPA will lose flights. Heck, if it strays east and cuts towards central FL, you'll lose most of southern FL (flight wise) as there will be very few flyable routes.

It's gotten slightly tense in my area. It started out like eh, yeah it might hit a named storm but who knows. Now? ... Don't you dare shift any NE or decide to pull a Charley and hang a hard right. Not in the mood for that crap this year. That being said.. Euro model updates in 3 hours.
 
Glad this was posted because hadn't heard anything about it previously. Looks like if the projected path holds true, we in SW GA could get a lot of wind and rain starting Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Hope our brand new roof hold up well!

i was just talking to a client this morning who said she would be traveling wednesday, right when the hurricane was supposed to hit. i said, "what hurricane?"
 
One thing that keeps this as a "must watch" is the waters in the Gulf are still pretty warm, which can allow Michael to intensify rather rapidly and affect its projected path.
 
i was just talking to a client this morning who said she would be traveling wednesday, right when the hurricane was supposed to hit. i said, "what hurricane?"
Apparently it went from next to nothing to really something pretty darn quickly. Hope that trend reverses quickly!
 
Im so thankful our area does not get impacted very often by this stuff. I know knock on wood moment.

Yeah I hope it doesn't get to the point they are projecting. Thoughts to those that may be effected by this.

Apparently it went from next to nothing to really something pretty darn quickly. Hope that trend reverses quickly!

As of yesterday at 12pm, the NWS had only just declared it a tropical storm. Now it's projected to potential Cat 3 within 60 hours? Holy moly that's quick so close to the continent.
 
Yeah I hope it doesn't get to the point they are projecting. Thoughts to those that may be effected by this.



As of yesterday at 12pm, the NWS had only just declared it a tropical storm. Now it's projected to potential Cat 3 within 60 hours? Holy moly that's quick so close to the continent.

Mother Nature can change her mind in a heartbeat.
 
Yeah I hope it doesn't get to the point they are projecting. Thoughts to those that may be effected by this.



As of yesterday at 12pm, the NWS had only just declared it a tropical storm. Now it's projected to potential Cat 3 within 60 hours? Holy moly that's quick so close to the continent.

Gulf of Mexico is almost like bathwater temperature. Takes no time to turn a little storm into a big one in a little amount of time.
 
Gulf of Mexico is almost like bathwater temperature. Takes no time to turn a little storm into a big one in a little amount of time.

No kidding! I just looked and NOAA is reporting 85* temps in the central gulf. Yup, that will make a hurricane really healthy in a hurry.
 
Stay safe down there guys. Just heard about this today on the news, had no idea.
 
If you're somewhat of a weather (or technology) nerd, the new GOES-16 and GOES-17 weather satellites have some pretty incredible images.

You can access it here:
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=16&x=10848&y=10848

On the left side, you can select either the -16 or -17 in the "satellite" drop down. The -17 is newer and not "officially" operational. Either will allow you to see Michael. You can zoom in quite a bit, but just be aware that after you make a modification, it takes a little bit for all the images to load. The "play" button is in the upper left corner or lower right, depending on which satellite you're viewing.
 
Possible worst case from a strength of storm perspective:

From Jeff Masters' Category 6 blog. He acknowledges it is about a 30% chance it strengthens to a Cat 4. Still, scary as hell, and is going to plow through a favorite vacation spot (Highway 30A between Destin and PCB).

Figure 4. Predicted surface winds (colors) and sea level pressure (black lines) for 11 am EDT Wednesday, October 10, 2018, from the 6Z Monday run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Michael would make landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds near Panama City, FL. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

hwrf-oct9.jpg
 
I hope we do not get a lot more rain. We got enough from the last hurricane
 
This one has we worried. I'm sure hoping it makes the little right turn that's predicted. Otherwise, it might be a direct hit on us. Even it it does move that way, it will be coming pretty close. I've never had to put up my hurricane shutters (we've only been here about 4 yrs), but, might have to this time. Seems to be coming in a hurry, so, tomorrow will be a key day on what we'll have to do.
 
Good luck, Ken. Hoping for a miss for you.
 
If you're somewhat of a weather (or technology) nerd, the new GOES-16 and GOES-17 weather satellites have some pretty incredible images.

You can access it here:
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=16&x=10848&y=10848

On the left side, you can select either the -16 or -17 in the "satellite" drop down. The -17 is newer and not "officially" operational. Either will allow you to see Michael. You can zoom in quite a bit, but just be aware that after you make a modification, it takes a little bit for all the images to load. The "play" button is in the upper left corner or lower right, depending on which satellite you're viewing.

link seems to be broken and NOAA is serving blank pages, but you can still see GOES-16/17 imagery via Weather Canada and the GOES page
 
It's looking like it's going to be pretty close. I was hoping for an earlier turn east, but I imagine itll pick up both strength and speed once it really gets into open water.
 
My son and his fiance live in Gulf Breeze near Pensacola Beach. I talked to him earlier today, he says the storm track looks to be going farther east than where they live. Hopefully it isn't as bad as they are predicting. Their wedding is a week from Friday on the beach. Suppose to fly down next Tuesday. Stay safe everyone on the panhandle.
 
This track is a tough one for me. If it moves any farther to the east all if a sudden we have to worry here in Tampa, and farther west and the family in Pensacola are looking at a hit.
Maybe it just weakens? Yeah that would be cool.
 
Whatever it does, I hope it does it quickly. We aren't likely to see anything but rain here, but we haven't exactly dried out from the last one either. So when it comes, I hope it passes through quickly.
 
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