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Is Golf really on the decline?

fuffle master

fuffle master

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So, I have always thought of a time when my wife and I would downsize our home and possibly move into a golfing community. Kids finally are out of the house and the need to own that 4/5 bedroom house just isn’t needed anymore. However, it seems Golf has been on the decline with younger people and homes in those golfing communities may have become or will become a VERY bad investment.

Reading this article has me wondering if long term plans should be changed. https://www.wsj.com/articles/golf-home-owners-find-themselves-in-a-hole-11547135191?mod=e2fb

So, I am wondering what others feel when the thought of homes on golfing communities or golf in general as the next generation becomes the predominant age. Is golf really on the decline and in trouble over the next 20 years?


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fflmaster said:
So, I have always thought of a time when my wife and I would downsize our home and possibly move into a golfing community. Kids finally are out of the house and the need to own that 4/5 bedroom house just isn’t needed anymore. However, it seems Golf has been on the decline with younger people and homes in those golfing communities may have become or will become a VERY bad investment.

Reading this article has me wondering if long term plans should be changed. https://www.wsj.com/articles/golf-home-owners-find-themselves-in-a-hole-11547135191?mod=e2fb

So, I am wondering what others feel when the thought of homes on golfing communities or golf in general as the next generation becomes the predominant age. Is golf really on the decline and in trouble over the next 20 years?


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I think its cyclical. While the younger demographic is enjoying a more Urban/City type of lifestyle, having a family will change that dynamic real quick.

I do think existing development will slow based on who is or potentially could be buying and it will affect the traditional "gated/Golf" communities that many over the age of 35 saw as the place to live.

If golf was on the decline I'd be ok. Not because i dont want to see the game grow, but because it outgrew itself at a pace it was not going to be able to sustain.
 
mikeg_74 said:
I think its cyclical. While the younger demographic is enjoying a more Urban/City type of lifestyle, having a family will change that dynamic real quick.

I do think existing development will slow based on who is or potentially could be buying and it will affect the traditional "gated/Golf" communities that many over the age of 35 saw as the place to live.

If golf was on the decline I'd be ok. Not because i dont want to see the game grow, but because it outgrew itself at a pace it was not going to be able to sustain.
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I think this is the big thing - to me it feels like more of a correction than anything.
 
mpeterson said:
I think this is the big thing - to me it feels like more of a correction than anything.
Click to expand...

agreed. It's a correction and a shift in what the younger demographic is doing with their free time and/or disposable income.
 
From my vantage point golf is on the incline but I'm on the decline
 
I think golf is in a slump currently but will pick back up once the 20-30 somethings reach their 40s-50s. A lot of people drop out of golf during their 20-30s due to life commitments and then come back once those commitments start going down. At least that is what happened to me and a lot of my friends. I’m currently 48 and just starting playing again 2 years ago.
 
fflmaster said:
So, I have always thought of a time when my wife and I would downsize our home and possibly move into a golfing community. Kids finally are out of the house and the need to own that 4/5 bedroom house just isn’t needed anymore. However, it seems Golf has been on the decline with younger people and homes in those golfing communities may have become or will become a VERY bad investment.

Reading this article has me wondering if long term plans should be changed. https://www.wsj.com/articles/golf-home-owners-find-themselves-in-a-hole-11547135191?mod=e2fb

So, I am wondering what others feel when the thought of homes on golfing communities or golf in general as the next generation becomes the predominant age. Is golf really on the decline and in trouble over the next 20 years?


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If your question is specific to retirement communities , I think there will be a major problem. For example, the Palm Springs-Coachella Valley area was essentially built out 30 to 50 years ago, including dozens of golf course communities constructed at a time when the retirees already had a lifestyle habit including golf.
Subsequent generations have not played as much golf as their parents and grandparents, so when the current generation of working adults retires there will be relatively few golf players. I expect this will mean the homes on and around gold courses will have less buyer demand.
If you want to now buy in a retirement golf course community, it might make sense to choose one that seems best likely to withstand a continued demand in participation, such as one that caters to tourists and, or, younger generations rather than exclusively retiree oriented.
For regular golf courses (not catering specifically to retirees), I expect that normal business supply/demand factors will decide which courses stay open and which will close. In the past several years, due to lack of demand/player participation, here in Northern California more than a dozen courses have closed.
The solution to the decline in golf, I think, is for course operators, equipment companies, PGA of America, the USGA and regional golf associations etc... to all work together promoting the concept of lessons and practice. Without skills development, people will continue to shoot 100, be frustrated with the game, and rarely want to play golf.
 
mpeterson said:
I think this is the big thing - to me it feels like more of a correction than anything.
Click to expand...

I am not so sure this is a correction versus a straight decline that golf doesn’t need to worry.

I look at American Tennis for an example. I believe many thought similar that Tennis was just in a need of unsustainable growth after Agassi, McEnroe, and Sampras retired. Yet, we see some of the best tennis being played now then ever before and the interest continues to wane.

I think a couple problems golf has right now, are first, they don’t have that Star like Tiger with whom younger people will gravitate towards. I remember playing Tiger Woods golf on Sega when in HS and then it was crazy popular in College. Lots of younger golfers went into the game thinking about being the next Tiger Woods. Two, golf has become so expensive that the business itself makes it difficult for younger or less-affluent people get into the sport. Yes, you can buy discounted or used equipment, but go to a golf course for less then 65. At least, in my area you don’t have many courses playable within the means of younger. When you don’t include the younger crowd then you are only banking on those finding the sport later in life. Well, that might not be the best course of action in the future of these younger generations.


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DG_1234 said:
If your question is specific to retirement communities , I think there will be a major problem. For example, the Palm Springs-Coachella Valley area was essentially built out 30 to 50 years ago, including dozens of golf course communities constructed at a time when the retirees already had a lifestyle habit including golf.
Subsequent generations have not played as much golf as their parents and grandparents, so when the current generation of working adults retires there will be relatively few golf players. I expect this will mean the homes on and around gold courses will have less buyer demand.
If you want to now buy in a retirement golf course community, it might make sense to choose one that seems best likely to withstand a continued demand in participation, such as one that caters to tourists and, or, younger generations rather than exclusively retiree oriented.
For regular golf courses (not catering specifically to retirees), I expect that normal business supply/demand factors will decide which courses stay open and which will close. In the past several years, due to lack of demand/player participation, here in Northern California more than a dozen courses have closed.
The solution to the decline in golf, I think, is for course operators, equipment companies, PGA of America, the USGA and regional golf associations etc... to all work together promoting the concept of lessons and practice. Without skills development, people will continue to shoot 100, be frustrated with the game, and rarely want to play golf.
Click to expand...

Not really thinking of just retirement, but definitely see your points. Preferably, I was thinking of those houses simply located of golf courses. If the course continues to lose money, due to the decline, then probably your largest investment for most people will depreciate at an alarming rate. The course doesn’t continue the upkeep or goes out of business and your home just lost 50% of sale value. The more popular golf stays the more your home value could increase.

Maybe it’s just a bad idea (buying within a golfing community) with the current structure.


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That article does not use many of the facts that exist.
Golf rounds were down less than 2% year over year, much of that due to weather during season.
More beginners took to the game. 2.6 million actually, which is up 73% since 2011.
 
fflmaster said:
Not really thinking of just retirement, but definitely see your points. Preferably, I was thinking of those houses simply located of golf courses. If the course continues to lose money, due to the decline, then probably your largest investment for most people will depreciate at an alarming rate. The course doesn’t continue the upkeep or goes out of business and your home just lost 50% of sale value. The more popular golf stays the more your home value could increase.

Maybe it’s just a bad idea (buying within a golfing community) with the current structure.


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For what it's worth, some of the Nor Cal golf course closures have converted the former course to become "open space" featuring walking trails, some regular landscape maintenance etc.. So, , even without a golf course the former golf course view homes still have some open space view and resale value.
I think I understand what you are considering, and I agree it would be great to live in golf course community, have a fairway view home etc... If you focus on courses which consistently receive lots of play, and have club houses with a thriving food-beverage-event business, you will probably be o.k.
The courses that were built to sell homes, where the original developer sold home sites (without enough active local golfers and, or, high sales volume food-beverage-event business) are the ones that end up without enough annual revenue to properly maintain the golf course, and the course eventually closes.
 
I think the golf round thing in 2018 was definitely due to weather. My home course wasn't 100% dry the entire year due to the rain last year (Louisville had the most rain in recorded history in 2018). That said both Golf Galaxy and the local golf shop Golf Headquarters had record sales years.

One thing to remember is golf takes time and money, which are both in short supply for people with new careers and young families.
 
In my area golf is declining, but so is the total population and we’re in the midst of a decade+ long recession. Have read about signs of golf being on the upswing in the US. I wouldn’t be too worried about a major decline.

Also there are things that just didn’t exist like Top Golf, and they’ve grown like crazy. So maybe people aren’t as likely to live a country club lifestyle and spend a full day out on the course, but would guess more casual things like a quick 9 after work or Top Golf will fit into lots of people’s’ lifestyles nowadays.


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fflmaster said:
I am not so sure this is a correction versus a straight decline that golf doesn’t need to worry.

I look at American Tennis for an example. I believe many thought similar that Tennis was just in a need of unsustainable growth after Agassi, McEnroe, and Sampras retired. Yet, we see some of the best tennis being played now then ever before and the interest continues to wane.

I think a couple problems golf has right now, are first, they don’t have that Star like Tiger with whom younger people will gravitate towards. I remember playing Tiger Woods golf on Sega when in HS and then it was crazy popular in College. Lots of younger golfers went into the game thinking about being the next Tiger Woods. Two, golf has become so expensive that the business itself makes it difficult for younger or less-affluent people get into the sport. Yes, you can buy discounted or used equipment, but go to a golf course for less then 65. At least, in my area you don’t have many courses playable within the means of younger. When you don’t include the younger crowd then you are only banking on those finding the sport later in life. Well, that might not be the best course of action in the future of these younger generations.


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Excellent , realistic points you've made here.
All factors considered, including time and money, my expectation is that some form of "electronic golf", played indoors using measuring equipment-simulators etc... will be significant to the "future of golf".
 
JB said:
That article does not use many of the facts that exist.
Golf rounds were down less than 2% year over year, much of that due to weather during season.
More beginners took to the game. 2.6 million actually, which is up 73% since 2011.
Click to expand...

So, you would disagree that homes in golfing communities are down and more golf courses have closed then opened?

No question, you would have much better information then most. Especially, with your contacts. I am only seeing an article and wondering how true. I do believe golf has been on the decline overall in the younger generation.


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fflmaster said:
So, you would disagree that homes in golfing communities are down and more golf courses have closed then opened?

No question, you would have much better information then most. Especially, with your contacts. I am only seeing an article and wondering how true. I do believe golf has been on the decline overall in the younger generation.


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Thats not what I said haha. We had a boom 15 years ago. It has leveled. Like everything in real estate, it got crushed. Much of that was due to over expansion.
For the last few years, golf has been incredibly stable.

Its not just my contacts, look at the publicly traded companies for reports. Nobody likes to see people lose money on a home. However like most things, real estate has its risks. If a golf course is not stable or not doing the right things, that land is valuable.
 
I think it has leveled out although I read an article that the average age was up significantly(to something like 62 years old) for an "avid" golfer who plays at least 4 rounds a month. I guess the population has aged with all the baby boomers.
 
Is Golf really on the decline?

fflmaster said:
I am not so sure this is a correction versus a straight decline that golf doesn’t need to worry.

I look at American Tennis for an example. I believe many thought similar that Tennis was just in a need of unsustainable growth after Agassi, McEnroe, and Sampras retired. Yet, we see some of the best tennis being played now then ever before and the interest continues to wane.

I think a couple problems golf has right now, are first, they don’t have that Star like Tiger with whom younger people will gravitate towards. I remember playing Tiger Woods golf on Sega when in HS and then it was crazy popular in College. Lots of younger golfers went into the game thinking about being the next Tiger Woods. Two, golf has become so expensive that the business itself makes it difficult for younger or less-affluent people get into the sport. Yes, you can buy discounted or used equipment, but go to a golf course for less then 65. At least, in my area you don’t have many courses playable within the means of younger. When you don’t include the younger crowd then you are only banking on those finding the sport later in life. Well, that might not be the best course of action in the future of these younger generations.


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The question whenever talking about a decline is “from what?” There was a stretch when golf courses were being built all over the place and people were counting on growth continuing forever.

Here in the Northeast, where there frankly isn’t room to build more courses and these developments aren’t that common outside of resorts, courses are largely packed every weekend - even the smaller municipal courses around here. I see a lot of younger folks playing and way more kids than I’ve remembered in the past. The folks who grew up watching Tiger are now bringing their kids into the game.

I think a lot of this article is specific to golf communities, which is a slightly different discussion than the game at large.
 
Were friends with several couples who own homes in a golf community. It's the only course within 30 minutes of here, and most other nearby courses are an hour away. Small mountain town.
The owners of the course and restaurant must have more money than they care to have, and started making some radical changes, which are resulting in our friends losing big $ in property values.
The course owners started by eliminating any public use.
Then, GET THIS...turned the 18 hole course into a 10 hole course.
Lastly, they've permanently closed the restaurant.

This left me thinking that I would never purchase property in a situation where someone else has so much power in affecting my property's value.

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mdowney58 said:
This left me thinking that I would never purchase property in a situation where someone else has so much power in affecting my property's value.
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Isnt that every home though? You can't control your neighbors and even with the strictest of HOAs, what happens if 3-4 homes on your street get foreclosed on?
While I think purchasing on a golf course is a tough one, its really no different than any other real estate outside of coastal views, and even then you dont know what gets built next door.
 
JB said:
Isnt that every home though? You can't control your neighbors and even with the strictest of HOAs, what happens if 3-4 homes on your street get foreclosed on?
While I think purchasing on a golf course is a tough one, its really no different than any other real estate outside of coastal views, and even then you dont know what gets built next door.
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Yes, home values can be effected by other things, but in this particular example, you have 1 person affecting many owners.
It shocks me that the property owners don't have more protection (legal) than they've told me they have.
The only thing that I can think of that would explain this scenario, is that the owner of the course and other amenities, wants to sell, and can't find a buyer, so he chose to make the property owners so fed up, that they would pay his asking price.

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mdowney58 said:
Yes, home values can be effected by other things, but in this particular example, you have 1 person affecting many owners.
It shocks me that the property owners don't have more protection (legal) than they've told me they have.
The only thing that I can think of that would explain this scenario, is that the owner of the course and other amenities, wants to sell, and can't find a buyer, so he chose to make the property owners so fed up, that they would pay his asking price.

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I dont disagree, but I still dont see a difference in that and the house on the block that doesnt take care of anything. Its one owner, bringing down the values of everybody around it.
While I agree golf courses amenities and views are not exactly the same, anybody purchasing on the course should understand that.
 
I feel bad for the people who purchased into golf communities. The trend in golf is to not play golf in a neighborhoods anymore. Where I live the courses that do well aren't the courses winding through houses. Most of those courses are boring as heck anyway.

Memberships and rounds were up at two of the three courses I frequent. The one that wasn't doing as well was because it's poorly run for the last few years (and it's one of those neighborhood courses).

Bad courses need to close, more private courses need to open to the public. Correction in golf was needed.
 
JB said:
That article does not use many of the facts that exist.
Golf rounds were down less than 2% year over year, much of that due to weather during season.
More beginners took to the game. 2.6 million actually, which is up 73% since 2011.
Click to expand...

These are good facts.

The decline story comes up every year... In the winter it seems. I'm not in any hurry to buy it.
 
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