Stock Market & Retirement Planning

NFLX is looking like a good candidate for puts over the next couple of days. Looks like there is downside room as the weekly chart bumps up against it's 50 period moving average.
 
441,
Talk to me about the balance sheets of US Steel (X).
 
Man X has a lot of debt to cash.... Is steel really a good industry to be investing in (in the US?)
 
Man X has a lot of debt to cash.... Is steel really a good industry to be investing in (in the US?)

I know, but here is my thinking. The new tax plan could make this a complete change in landscape, right? I mean this should keep many of the foreign markets from dumping an inferior product, so my thought as a long term play (its already up quite a bit over a couple of weeks), this could be a brilliant move if the new tax plan works.
 
Long term play, yea probably not terrible.

Last year was an absolute nightmare for United States Steel Corporation ( X ). Keep in mind that about $6 billion in revenues evaporated. And yes, X stock plunged from $26 to under $8.
Of course, the company was not alone. Many other steel operators like AK Steel Holding Corporation ( AKS ), ArcelorMittal SA (ADR) ( MT ) and Steel Dynamics, Inc. ( STLD ) also suffered.
The fact is that the global steel industry has been beset with a massive glut, which has tanked prices.
Yet there are still some positive signs, and investors are starting to get interested in the sector. In the case of X stock, it has gained over 50% this year!
So perhaps there is an opportunity here for U.S. Steel? Or should investors still hold off? To see, let's take a look at the pros and cons for X stock.
7 Mining and Materials Stocks That Could Gain 15%-150%[h=3]X Stock Pros[/h]Carnegie Way : This is the playbook for U.S. Steel, which involves a strong focus on efficiencies as well as quality products. The good news is that the strategy appears to be working. Despite the plunge in revenues in 2015, U.S. Steel was still able to generate adjusted EBITDA of $202 million . But the company has had to take severe actions. After all, there have been substantial layoffs and closures of plants. U.S. Steel has also been focused on finding ways to pump up the cash flows, such as with improving collections, optimizing inventory and paring back on capital expenditures.
Protections : When it comes to the steel industry, a critical factor is tariffs. While these may not be particularly good for consumers, they are helpful with price stability. Besides, tariffs can help prevent dumping from foreign steel producers. So this week, the U.S. steel industry did get some much-needed news on this front. The Department of Commerce announced initial anti-dumping duties for cold-rolled sheet steel against China, Japan, Brazil and other countries. And yes, according to JPMorgan's Michael Gambardella, X stock should benefit . According to him: "[T]he positive trade rulings especially against the biggest exporter to the U.S. - China - should continue to increase sheet prices off of the recent bottom. In fact, hot-rolled sheet prices in the U.S. bottomed at $364/ton, recently were about $400/ton and just received a $30/ton price hike yesterday."
Cyclical Stocks : These investments can have gut-wrenching swings, as seen with the performance of X stock. Interestingly enough, the bull move often comes before the industry makes a comeback. Hey, Wall Street likes to anticipate moves, not follow them. For example, during the financial crisis of 2009, X stock went from a low of around $18 to over $50! In other words, gutsy investors can make huge gains if they can effectively time the turnarounds.
[h=3]U.S. Steel Cons[/h]Macro Factors : U.S. Steel certainly faces several tough headwinds. Of course, there is the massive glut of supply on the global markets. No doubt, a key reason for this is the deceleration of China. And unfortunately, there are few signs that the situation will improve any time soon. But another major factor is the surge in the U.S. dollar, which has made the offerings from U.S. Steel quite pricey. Oh, and the plunge in crude oil has been another major issue. For the most part, this has resulted in a plunge in the demand for tubular products. Keep in mind that operating levels for U.S. Steel facilities are at the lowest levels since 2009.
Debt : Like many companies, U.S. Steel has taken advantage of the historically low interest rates. But then again, this has resulted in massive liabilities on the balance sheet. Consider that - over the next five years - the company will have to pay off about $1.8 billion of its maturing debt . It's true that current operating levels are sufficient to make the payments. However, if there is a prolonged downturn, U.S. Steel may be in jeopardy. Let's face it, the company will likely have a hard time obtaining new loans to refinance the debt or pulling off equity offerings.
Legacy Issues : The roots of U.S Steel go back to the 1870s, when America was in the midst of an industrial boom. So while it is impressive that the company has been able to last so long, there are certainly some major issues. After all, it has to deal with its legacy of onerous healthcare and pension benefits as well as aging plants. In fact, U.S. Steel may be at a competitive disadvantage because it relies on expensive blast furnaces. The company's rivals have much more modern systems, such as direct iron reduction, EAF production, oxygen-coal injection and molten oxide electrolysis.
[h=3]Bottom Line on U.S. Steel Stock[/h]The steel industry still has some bright spots. Consider that there continues to be robust growth in categories like autos and housing.
But of course, the big issue is with China, which may see lackluster demand for steel for some time. But then again, U.S. Steel should get some help with the imposition of tariffs.
Despite all this, the stock price has already staged a big move. Actually, a big part of this has likely been from a short squeeze. Basically, about 39% of the float is in short positions.
 
Wow, wish I was able to get in on X.
Up over 10% on the day as I suspected with the new tax. Dayum.
 
Wow, wish I was able to get in on X.
Up over 10% on the day as I suspected with the new tax. Dayum.

Stock picker in a past life? Dayum is right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Stock picker in a past life? Dayum is right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My order never went through as I had the price a tiny bit low. Kills me.
 
Man X has a lot of debt to cash.... Is steel really a good industry to be investing in (in the US?)

Too many people moving to graphite shafts. :alien:
 
Eff Me.
X is now over $15.
 
T is a big dividend payer and it pays out to holders of record 4/08 on 5/2. If anybody is on the fence there, quick chance to get in on the dividend.
 
T is a big dividend payer and it pays out to holders of record 4/08 on 5/2. If anybody is on the fence there, quick chance to get in on the dividend.

Need to find out when the ex-dividend date is for T
 
T is a big dividend payer and it pays out to holders of record 4/08 on 5/2. If anybody is on the fence there, quick chance to get in on the dividend.
Are you in the habit of 'selling dividends'??
 
Bought a little Netflix awhile back.. Nice 8% so far. Feels good to get back into investing in individual stocks.
 
Just picked up a few more shares of Delta during its tumble this morning. I have a feeling their financial announcements are at the higher end of expectations.
 
Just picked up a few more shares of Delta during its tumble this morning. I have a feeling their financial announcements are at the higher end of expectations.
Just took a quick comparison of Delta against my fav Southwest, and i see Delta has better P/E, Earnings and dividend.... Definitely worth a look in that space.
 
Just took a quick comparison of Delta against my fav Southwest, and i see Delta has better P/E, Earnings and dividend.... Definitely worth a look in that space.

Picked it up 46.90 and my previous bunch at 42.11.
THey are fallling today after being downgraded to a hold instead of buy and I know they killed it last quarter.
 
I need to get some more money back into my 'play' brokerage account. Looking at the Delta Calls for June, the 'in the money' 40 is trading right about the price of the stock currently. Any correction back to the upside with the stock will generate a decent return...
 
I need to get some more money back into my 'play' brokerage account. Looking at the Delta Calls for June, the 'in the money' 40 is trading right about the price of the stock currently. Any correction back to the upside with the stock will generate a decent return...

Yes sir.
I expect it to hit 50 and then I will most likely hop out.
 
Picked it up 46.90 and my previous bunch at 42.11.
THey are fallling today after being downgraded to a hold instead of buy and I know they killed it last quarter.

Looking like a pretty good move right now. Hoping we see that $50 mark.
 
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