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Playing to your handicap

ArmyGolf said:
I thought this could be an interesting discussion and I didn't want to clog up or detour any of the THP Event threads. Since THP hosts a ton of NET events there is always a ton of chatter regarding handicaps and what a golfer needs to do to be successful. Most competitors have a goal of "shooting to your cap" in tournaments and events as a barometer of whether or not they've played well, or left some on the table. Handicap as a measure of potential, NOT average score is how I've always understood it.

A local Pro I've talked to is adamant that a player with an accurate handicap will only shoot to that number 1/5 rounds, or 20% of the time. If this is true the only way to shoot to your number in a multi-round event is to be in the middle of a large handicap downswing at the time.

A quick google search spat out some more numbers I'm curious about. "A golfer should shoot within 3 strokes of 3-over his handicap over 50% of the time." Obviously course ratings and slopes will play into this quite a bit, but as a general rule it should discussable.

What say the minds of THP? Are these numbers accurate? Close? Bogus?
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Most of what you posted is fairly accurate. You consider that your handicap index is based on the best ten of your last 20 scores, so you are already looking at the worst one in those 10 as somewhere around your total average, Then you take the average of those 10 best differentials, then multiply that by .96 to reduce it a bit more, and your index is going to rest somewhere near the worst of the best 5 scores, or slightly better than 15 of of your last 20. If 15 of your last 20 scores are higher than your index, that means that you only play to or better than that 1/4 to 1/5 of the time. That ratio alters during an improvement period, and also during a decline.

As far as playing multiday competitions, you shouldn't have to play to, or better than your handicap to be in contention. As long as you post multiple scores that rank in and near your current best ten, you should be well positioned to be in the running. That would mean that you are playing better than your average, and that is as good as one should hope for unless he is in a strong improvement cycle. Of course there is always that chance of the planets being in alignment and you shoot one of those once a season rounds, but that is the rare exception - if you shoot too many of those then your cap goes lower and the above analysis becomes true again.

This should hold true as long as your handicap is accurate and the others playing also have correct and legitimate handicaps. If your competitions don't work this way, then something is wrong with some of the handicaps involved.


I just tested this theory against my own handicap:

My best 5 differentials right now are 16.6, 17.2, 17.2, 17.7, and 19.1. My index is 18.4, which would put it in 4th position on that list, right where my analysis above would put it.
 
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ArmyGolf said:
I tend to agree with your last point , but keep in mind that anyone who consistently shoots to their Index will have a handicap that is dropping constantly.
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Yes, I agree. If it isn't then they either A) Aren't posting those scores or B) Have not yet had a revision.
 
Something else that I think needs to be mentioned is your scores relative to a course's slope rating can also have an impact. I spent most of the past year with scores in the low 90's counted for my index that were played on tougher courses than my home course. Saying you play to your handicap might mean a difference of several strokes depending on the difficulty of the course at hand. Simply saying, "A bogey golfer should shoot 90" is a really simplistic way of looking at it, and doesn't take into account a variety of factors.
 
ArmyGolf said:
I tend to agree with your last point , but keep in mind that anyone who consistently shoots to their Index will have a handicap that is dropping constantly.
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This has happen to me lately. I have shot lower than my average 11 out of my last 20 rounds with all but one round being within 4 of my average. So it is all dropping right now. Which I guess is a good thing. But when I see my cap number I don't think I am good enough to be a the number because I don't shot that low that often
 
I'd say your pro's take works out very close for me. I looked back at what my indexes were for the past year plus and my differentials were within +/- 3 strokes 44 times out of 82 (54%). I was at or under my cap 17 of 82 times (21%). The demoralizing facet of this was that there were only 3 occassions where I was more than 3 strokes lower than my expected differential but I was more than 3 shots worse a whopping 35 times. Such is life as a mid-capper, ouch.
 
I stopped worrying about that number a long time ago. And there is no hard fast rule about it. If you want to play well, take yourself out of your comfort zone , when and if possible. Post every score and work on your game.

Bad rounds will happen for EVERY player from pros to weekend warriors. All you can do is post and start over the next round.
 
these analytics are kind of fun. my last 12 differentials including scores that haven't closed out to my handicap yet:

5.7 9.6 20.8
12.0 5.2 18.4
6.9 9.9 6.7
7.5 13.2 11.0

since i'm including one score that hasn't closed out yet, i'll go by my trend of 7.8. of those 12 scores, 5 of 12 are at or below my handicap or 42%. and 8 of 12 are within 3 shots of my handicap or 67%. so i have to amend my previous statement, i guess i'm actually trending to be more consistent. but get me in a tournament setting and who the heck knows?
 
The math holds true for most golfers with some consistency I'm sure.
 
I've played at or below my index 7 times in the last 20 round and within 3 strokes over my index 15 of 20 rounds. Low differential score was -2.4 and high was +4.9.
 
I'm that 77/97 guy...I've broken 80 a few times in the last year. My average is around 85. Some days I'm grinding to keep it below 95. I had a round a few weeks ago where I was +11 on the front, +3 on the back. That was a Par 71, 123 slope, playing 6200 yards in very wet conditions, bumpy winter greens, on a course I never played before. 85 was right on my average score. I easily left about 5 shots on the front 9 due directly to conditions. 14 over could have easily been 8 or 9 over instead. I walked away feeling happy about the way I played, all things considered.
It's golf. I don't try and over analyze it.
 
Last year my hdcp was dropping so i played to it or better than it for awhile. I would say for the most part I play close to my course hdcp a good portion of the time and that hdcp will vary as you know based on course. I don't worry too much about whether i shoot my hdcp or not and have been trying to focus on just playing golf and let the rest take care of itself.
 
One of the only reasons why I even have a handicap is because of THP events, now also because the league I am in is adopting the USGA handicap system. I don't worry too much about my handicap and I feel like it doesn't quite reflect my game. Every time I play with someone new who asks me my handicap before the round thinks I am lying about it after the round because I look like I play better than my cap. I have to remind them of the one or two blow up holes I had that keeps me from a lower handicap.
 
The math is generally correct, I shoot my handicap around twice a year. What I consider as good games are within 3 to 5 strokes of my handicap.

However, there's an issue of course familiarity. Where I keep my cap I've been playing for the past 10 years, so I know literally every fairway, green and escape.

In some courses I've played like only twice or thrice before, so there is a factor of not knowing the course affecting my score. Still, shooting anywhere in the 90's will make me a happy man.
 
I guess that math fits me to a T, LOL.

My current index is 8.2, up from a 7.6 in January. My last 20 rounds and their differentials:

10.4
15.0
11.3
11.0
9.2
10.4
10.4
10.1
8.5
10.1
10.4
19.5
9.2
9.2
6.7
5.5
8.4
9.5
10.8
10.6


Too much consistency... need to start making more putts, LOL!
 
Not in the current weather / course conditions but normally my handicap travels well!
 
To me the issue at THP events tends to come when guys play the same goat track for the lack of a better term and show up to an event with let's say a 7 handi. They handicap doesn't travel however. They get to a THP event and somehow can't break 100.
 
Howzat said:
To me the issue at THP events tends to come when guys play the same goat track for the lack of a better term and show up to an event with let's say a 7 handi. They handicap doesn't travel however. They get to a THP event and somehow can't break 100.
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One of the best things I did last year were to play different courses than what I normally do or play some from different tees. It helped me play better in THP events and forced me to play shots I may not have to,play at a few of my normal courses.
 
Howzat said:
To me the issue at THP events tends to come when guys play the same goat track for the lack of a better term and show up to an event with let's say a 7 handi. They handicap doesn't travel however. They get to a THP event and somehow can't break 100.
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I know that guy! There is also the guy who shows up to an event as, say, a 16 and breaks 80.

I looked at my GHIN indexes over my last 20 scores. I have 5 that are below my current index. Six are +/-3 of my index and nine are +/-4 of my index. Because I am the guy who shoots between 79 and 105. No rhyme or reason, depends on penalty shots.

But get me out of my home course, and I will shoot at or better than my handicap, almost guaranteed. Part of the game. I do not sandbag, I have a tough course as my home course. My handicap travels.
 
And that is key Spivey. I am in a similar situation. I can't for the life of me score well at my home course. Shoot 90's on a regular basis. I get to a Florida resort course and can shoot in the 80's easy with what I feel is the exact same game. Add to that the pressure of match play which most do not play often enough and then a situation like #TheGrandaddy and it is easy to understand why the #ZooCrew has the record they do.
 
I think a lot depends on the type of player one is. A steady Freddy or a wild willy. If one is a feast or famine (wild willy) type of player then the numbers are not going to be so average. Therwe will be a ton of variation in scores. Wont be so many middle of the road scored rounds but mostly filled with just enough real good rounds and also just enough real bad ones with far less rounds in the middle.
 
Howzat said:
And that is key Spivey. I am in a similar situation. I can't for the life of me score well at my home course. Shoot 90's on a regular basis. I get to a Florida resort course and can shoot in the 80's easy with what I feel is the exact same game. Add to that the pressure of match play which most do not play often enough and then a situation like #TheGrandaddy and it is easy to understand why the #ZooCrew has the record they do.
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I have been told that our problem is a good one to have. We just have to prepare for event formats, and not necessarily change our games.
 
I know that a lot of this is centered around shooting ones handicap relative to specific events, but the more I've been thinking about it today, and after spending some of my afternoon re-reading Golf is Not a Game of Perfect, I'm realizing that, for any events I get into this year, or any year, I'm kinda rethinking things.

Have fun.
Leave your expectations at the door.
Approach every shot with the best mental focus you have available.
Treat every shot as an opportunity.

And let your handicap sort itself out. I don't think most of us could handjam updates to our index anyway. It's PFM (pure flippin' magic) as far as I'm concerned.
 
Somewhat along the lines of Spivey's and Howzat's comments. Even if your home course is a hard track, if you play it a lot, you will eventually get to know some tribal knowledge about it. Like where you absolutely don't want to miss on a given hole, what lines to take off the tees or into the greens, the subtle breaks in the greens are, etc...

I would think that handicap based only on a bunch of good scores on one track(easy or hard), may not "travel" as well.

Spivey's got a hdcp that travels, partly b/c he plays a lot of other tracks besides his very difficult home course.
 
I'd say I play to mine 2 out of 5 rounds most of the time.
 
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