Stock Market & Retirement Planning

Trying to figure out my cash out number on Netflix. Its a puzzling stock.
 
Trying to figure out my cash out number on Netflix. Its a puzzling stock.

What is your basis on it?
 
What is your basis on it?

Thats the problem, with a stock like theirs, there really isn't one. They don't pay a dividend, so long term one is just hoping that they stay above the rest.
On one hand, they are the biggest for streaming, offer the most and have a ton of room for growth internationally. On the other hand, in tech, first does not always mean best, see AOL, Blackberry, etc.

With more media going to streaming, the future could look grand and it could look bleak. Im just not sure where to set it. My gut says $120 and walk.
 
Thats the problem, with a stock like theirs, there really isn't one. They don't pay a dividend, so long term one is just hoping that they stay above the rest.
On one hand, they are the biggest for streaming, offer the most and have a ton of room for growth internationally. On the other hand, in tech, first does not always mean best, see AOL, Blackberry, etc.

With more media going to streaming, the future could look grand and it could look bleak. Im just not sure where to set it. My gut says $120 and walk.

Fwiw I read an article yesterday that said that Netflix has more competition than ever and has actually decreased their library by 30% over the last year. Made the argument that the days of the race to the largest library are over and it's all about original content i.e. Orange is the New Black or House of Cards.

Like you said, it's hard to determine if this is good or bad for the stock, but it does explicitly say that the competitive landscape is vast...
 
Fwiw I read an article yesterday that said that Netflix has more competition than ever and has actually decreased their library by 30% over the last year. Made the argument that the days of the race to the largest library are over and it's all about original content i.e. Orange is the New Black or House of Cards.

Like you said, it's hard to determine if this is good or bad for the stock, but it does explicitly say that the competitive landscape is vast...

Exactly. And now the latest poll said if they raise rates something like 65% of subscribers say they can cancel. Will they? Of course not, but it makes you wonder worth.
 
Their p/e is 370...
Most price objectives I've seen are higher than 120, but with a valuation like that it's scary to stay in lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Their p/e is 370...
Most price objectives I've seen are higher than 120, but with a valuation like that it's scary to stay in lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah I have access to all of that information. I look back at companies like AAPL years and years ago where I hopped out early and got burned (still made money) because of where they went or the flip side of AOL where I hopped out early and made out like a bandit compared to where they went.

NFLX is one of those test cases.
 
I hear ya...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Trying to figure out my cash out number on Netflix. Its a puzzling stock.

Possible ceilings at $114, $117, and $125. If it breaks $125 it'll run.
 
Just put in some sell stops and ride it up...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Possible ceilings at $114, $117, and $125. If it breaks $125 it'll run.

Its already broken all of those in the last several months, so not sure where those numbers are coming from.
 
Its already broken all of those in the last several months, so not sure where those numbers are coming from.

Statistical analysis of the stock history. Just because a stock has previously broken a number doesn't mean that same number won't be a ceiling in a subsequent run. Those levels have all presented repeated interim tops followed by selling on some of NFLX's heaviest volume days. The short interest, and days to cover, are near their 12-month trailing highs.

The short interest is going to try to prevent a run while buyers at the recent 83/84 bottom will be happy to take some gains, and the price has moved above the 50 day SMA and EMA, and is nearing the 100 day SMA/EMA. These interest could collide to present resistance at prior ceilings. However, if the bottom buyers try to push higher, it will likely result in a short squeeze and a pop above the recent highs. The $114-117 level is the likely arena for this fight.
 
I got in early on Netflix and let it ride. I am at the point now where I want to sell and put that profit into something else, but right now i'm ok with whatever happens because regardless i still come out ahead.
 
Statistical analysis of the stock history. Just because a stock has previously broken a number doesn't mean that same number won't be a ceiling in a subsequent run. Those levels have all presented repeated interim tops followed by selling on some of NFLX's heaviest volume days. The short interest, and days to cover, are near their 12-month trailing highs.

The short interest is going to try to prevent a run while buyers at the recent 83/84 bottom will be happy to take some gains, and the price has moved above the 50 day SMA and EMA, and is nearing the 100 day SMA/EMA. These interest could collide to present resistance at prior ceilings. However, if the bottom buyers try to push higher, it will likely result in a short squeeze and a pop above the recent highs. The $114-117 level is the likely arena for this fight.

Correct, I get all of that.
Just hard to use "historical" as data points when we are talking about something hit and surpassed in the last 90 days.
 
Correct, I get all of that.
Just hard to use "historical" as data points when we are talking about something hit and surpassed in the last 90 days.

This one seems especially tricky to me because the entertainment sector as a whole is in such flux. One one hand, you both have new entrants into the original content space (Hulu) which sort of fragments everything. On the other, you have more and more people ditching cable for streaming services.
 
Correct, I get all of that.
Just hard to use "historical" as data points when we are talking about something hit and surpassed in the last 90 days.

That's why I had to pick three levels...not enough long-term data to try to get a better read. Point and figure charts present far too much compression to get a clear indicator.

If I bought near the 83/84 bottom I'd probably unload about half to 2/3 of my position around $114-117 for a nice profit and let the remainder ride. NFLX is good at bouncing off it's 100EMA, which is about 85 right now (on a 5 year analysis).

If I wanted to get really crazy I'd maybe look at some May 20 Call options that are around the $120 strike (I haven't reviewed the Greeks on the option chains so I'm not sure which I'd pick right now). The 135s look to have good action on small price moves.
 
This one seems especially tricky to me because the entertainment sector as a whole is in such flux. One one hand, you both have new entrants into the original content space (Hulu) which sort of fragments everything. On the other, you have more and more people ditching cable for streaming services.

And then add more streaming services available coming by the week.
Starz announced yesterday. Sony going large scale and an increase from AT&T into the market through Dish.
 
Started trading w/ Sharebuilder thru Capital One Investing last year. Have Ford, Avista Utilities, and GE right now. Looking to add Coca-Cola, and Apartments.com.
 
Started trading w/ Sharebuilder thru Capital One Investing last year. Have Ford, Avista Utilities, and GE right now. Looking to add Coca-Cola, and Apartments.com.

Apartments.com? Do you mean CoStar CSGP?
 
Hey JB, you still in Netflix? What's your exit point? I have a tentative 120 limit, but i might adjust as it seems like it could roll even further. I put that in when it was $105, and it's already up over $111.
 
Hey JB, you still in Netflix? What's your exit point? I have a tentative 120 limit, but i might adjust as it seems like it could roll even further.

I have it set at 120 limit. Im waiting on financials from a few other companies involved in streaming before I decide. If they paid dividend, I would look at long term, but I am just not sure here.

Could end up like APPL where originally I got out too early, but still made money.
Or end up like Blackberry, where I stayed too long and others caught up.

They are a bonafide channel now, but international release has not given way to what I expected. Im concerned about the price hike and seeing what happened.
 
I'd venture to guess it will probably slow when it gets to $113, but if it can get past that, then $120/$121 is certainly a possiblity. Definitely quite of bit of information to be processed on this one
 
I just have to put in another 28.5 years here at the company I'm at now, and I get full retirement. They average the 5 years I made the most money and that's what I get in retirement every year. And my wife also gets another half of that amount. Railroad retirement is great if you can stick it out

This is my custom signature
 
Talking about the stock market, earning per share and all that goes into the market. I get it mostly, but I don't have to cash to play and that sucks. I'm in my matching 401K and work, and I put in $100 a month, but I don't feel like that's enough. Granted, I'm young and I'll ride it out until retirement, and that's probably around 25 to 30 years out so I have time. I'm just thinking, what else could I do with the limited side money that I DO have, and that's really limited.
 
Jay, are you maxing out a Roth IRA? Are you putting in your 401K enough to get the full company match?
 
Back
Top