Opening Odds: 2017 THP Championship Sponsored by Budget Golf

JDax said:

The next THP Major is just around the corner, and it's time to turn our attention to The 2017 THP Championship. With Budget Golf on board as the sponsor, this will definitely be an extravaganza of sight and sound (like a New Edition concert before Bobby Brown left).

I have been talking with JB, and there is a contest coming around this event, so study up people (No I don't know what is going to be on the line so don't PM me).

Do I have your attention now? With that being said, let's do a little preview of this event:

When & Where-
September 8th-10th, 2017
Cog Hill Golf & Country Club- https://www.coghillgolf.com/
Playing Ravines and Dubsdread

Take a moment and take a look at the website, and become familiar with the tracks, both are excellent courses and will be a true test of golf. The 2 courses that the THP Championship will be played on, The Ravines & Dubsdread co-hosted the '97 US Amateur (among other events). Dubsdread could be set up to play as a beast, and bring these teams to their knees.

Format (What we know right now)-
Day 1 will be at the Dubsdread Course
Day 2 will be at the Ravines Course

The Teams will play the following format over the 4 Nines:
Shamble (Both Players Count)
Alt-Shot
Best Ball (Both Players Count)
Shamble (Both Players Count)

Note: We don't know in which order these formats will be played.

The Teams:

Jersey Burners
rajohnson & TooHipGottaGo

Geeked Out
lightningbolt44 & NerdyGolfer

Prairie Corn Dog
Boder & rogt

Double J
J4U & Jlew2144

Its A Wu Day
shanewu & ItsOpeningDay

Fighting Lions of Mediocrity
Ozzman & Lions81

Swedish Tiger
Jdtox & time4tim

Two Men and Some Tags
mikedean441 & Mancest

Vegemite Saw Dust
#Cookie & Stemmy66

Snowy Lava
SkiBumGolfer & Molten


I have spent the last few weeks researching each one of these teams in the following ways:

• Spent a lot of time scouring this thread in an attempt to gleam any nuggets of knowledge that would help determine the state of their games- https://www.thehackersparadise.com/...017-THP-Championship-Sponsored-by-Budget-Golf
• Pulled a Mark David Chapman, and stalked the player's profiles and post history to find out as much as I could about the players and their games. (Bonus points if you get that reference)
• JB has also filled in some gaps with feedback, when I couldn't find out enough information on some of the players.

Fun Facts:

Based on the Handicap information at my disposal, JB has done a really good job of balancing the Teams. Because of this balance, other ways need to be sought to determine the edge.

There is a lot of THP Event Experience spread out among the teams:

• 6 Teams- Both members have THP Event Experience (Prairie Corn Dogs, Two Men & Some Tags, It's a Wu Day, Fighting Lions, Swedish Tiger, & Snowy Lava)
• 3 Teams- One of the Team Members have THP Event Experience (Geeked Out, Double J, & Vegemite Saw Dust)
• 1 Team- No prior THP Event Experience (Jersey Burners)

There are 2 members of winning Grandaddy teams in this event (Lions81 & Lightingbolt44).

The current Grandaddy Captain & a former Grandaddy Captain are participants in this event (MikeDean441 & #Cookie).

There are 4 THP Event Rookies in this event (Rajohnson, TooHipGottaGo, Nerdy Golfer, & Jlew2144).

Why am I mentioning all of this? One Word, Four Letters- Heat.

This Championship will come down to who can handle the Heat on Sunday, and who might wilt under the pressure.

In my limited THP Event Experience (one event), I can personally attest that there is nervous energy as matches come down the stretch. Don't believe me? Ask E1iterate about a blocked 6 iron that I hit to the right of Mussolini with a 1/2 a point on the line at SEC Regional Rivalry. He asked me, "Where in the Hell did that come from? You haven't done that in years." Confused, I simply responded, "I think, I just succumb to the pressure..."

Because of the format, every shot from both players is going to count, so there will be nowhere to hide from the Heat. The Team that handles this pressure the best will be crowned a worthy Champion come Sunday afternoon. I, for one, can't wait to follow this event...

Odds to Win The 2017 THP Championship:

Two Men & Some Tags (mikedean441 & Mancest)- 8/5

Another Sports Book has the favorite for this Event listed at 3/2, but has the wrong team favored. All the current Grandaddy Captain does is win, win, win, no matter what, what, what. Both members of the team are THP Event Veterans, and Captain Dean seems to find a way to win a lot as a 6X HOF tag winner. They are both mid caps, but my research tells me that their games will partner up well in this team event, as Mancest is a known fairway finder off the tee. Since The Captain is one of the most well know forum members in this event, action is already going to come their way, so there is no need to provide a premium in the number to get it. They open as the favorite to win the event.

Fighting Lions (Ozzman & Lions81)- 5/2

This team features arguably the best player in the field, in Lions81 plus his battery mate Ozzman. Both are THP battle tested, and Lions81 delivered just last year at the grandest stage of them all The Grandaddy. This team's fortunes rest on Ozzman's ability to keep the ball in front of him not make Lions carry all of the water. If that happens look out, this team is a real contender. Day 1 at Dubsdread is going to favor really good ball strikers, Lions81 is maybe the best ball striker out there (according to my research). This is a team that could get hot and run away and hide. We shall see.

Swedish Tiger (JDtox & time4tim)- 4/1
This team is interesting, JDtox has recently fired a PB breaking 80 and time4tim (according to my intel) is a good ball striker that lulls you to sleep by not making a mistake. JDtox is coming off of a big THP Call Out win over Michigan Slice, to boot. On paper this is a deadly combo, however with better play comes increased expectations, with increased expectations comes added pressure. The format should favor this pairing, and they could be that team that lurks in the mix right up until the end. They both also have THP Event experience, which also bodes well. I wouldn't be surprised to see this number holding steady throughout the betting.

Snowy Lava (SkiBumGolfer & Molton)- 6/1

Want to go value shopping? It starts on this aisle, with a really good recipe for a value pick: Both members have THP Event Experience? Check. Both members are mid cappers, providing added value? Check. One of the members peaking at the right time? Check. SkiBum is coming off of a PB of 76 and is hitting every green that he looks at, which bodes well for this format. Molton has been down playing his progress, however, this could be some gamesmanship. This team meets all of my criteria for being a contender, and it wouldn't be a shock if they hang around like they have alligator blood, and the other teams can't get rid of them.

Prairie Corn Dog (Boder & rogt)- 6/1

Another team that meets the my ingredients of a potential contender, as both members have THP Event Experience (see the theme here), mid caps, and one member coming off a PB round. The one cause for concern is some driver issues that have been discussed in the Teams thread, but in Dean's last update, there were rumors that Boder is getting that back on track. If that is the case look out for this team to out perform this spot in perceived value.

It's a Wu Day (shanewu & ItsOpeningDay)- 8/1

Remember that I like teams where both members have been battle tested before, and this is the last of the 6 teams that fit that bill. I like them way better than the Book across town. In reading the Teams thread, Shane has shown some flashes of brilliance and Opening Day could be poised to surprise. There has been some struggles with the driver from shanewu that could give some bettors pause. This pairing bears close watching of this next week, to see if they are hitting Chicago with some confidence.

Geeked Out (lightningbolt44 & NerdyGolfer )- 8/1

The first team with a rookie checks in here, if you followed Team Unity's march to the belt in last years Grandaddy, you will remember that lightningbolt44 is a fierce competitor and a great teammate. This mid/high cap pairing is one that I expect to make some noise. There is also some mystery on bag set up, that could could to be an interesting side note. LB should be able to guide the rookie (NerdyGolfer) through his first event, and possibly will this team in contention come Sunday. I'm here for it.

Jersey Burners (rajohnson & TooHipGottaGo)- 11/1

Ever read Nancy Drew and the Hardy Boys as a kid? Well that's how I felt doing research on this Rookie/Rookie pairing, it was some hard detective work. One needed a search warrant to find anything out on these two. Here's what I know, rajohnson might be the best pure golfer in the field. He will be on the 1st tee holding the lowest handicap of any competitor. TooHipGottaGo is also an international man of mystery, as not a lot is known about him either. I was able to dig up that his cap is on the higher side (around 17), in this format a low/high combo could make some noise. This is the super value part of the board, where dark horses start to emerge. They are interesting, like a guy who you beat like a drum in the 1st nine of a Nassau, but asks to press the other 2 bets on the 10th tee, they have my full attention.

Double J (J4U & Jlew2144)- 11/1

I'm not sure what to make of this team, in the interest of full disclosure, they did ask to play the event at 7,600 yards, which rose some eye brows of the other teams in the field. J4U is THP battle tested, and is a long hitter. This will bode well if JB decides to make Cog Hill more like Shinnecock Hills. Jlew is a Rookie, so not a lot is know about his game, but his profile lists him as a 13 Handicap, so this pairing is low/mid. I've got my eye on them because they could be bet down in value before we get to Chicago.

Vegemite Saw Dust (#Cookie & Stemmy66)- 14/1

As a multiple THP Event participant and former Grandaddy Captain, Cookie is no stranger to moments and stages like this, and he should be a calming influence on his Rookie partner. Cookie is super competitive, makes few mistakes, and has a really good short game. There isn't a whole lot known about his Rookie partner, Stemmy. That is the reason for this value, another reason is that I'm not sure what the distance of the set up is going to be. Judging by the distance discussion in the Teams thread, a longer set up could hurt this team's chances. With that being said, don't count out a team with a grizzled veteran, because if he gets some solid play out of his partner, they have a puncher's chance to win the Championship.

Good Luck....

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mancest said:

Fun stuff, I can see how Tagcest might be the public team but I will give some insight for those that might be curious... This will be my 3rd THP championship and I am currently 0 for 2. 411 I think has more appearances and zero victories.

I hit a decent amount of fairways (was 9 of 14 on Sunday) but my longest was 234 and I averaged right at 200 yards... so if we are using my tee shot in the shamble format we are going to be hitting longer clubs or laying up on par 4s. Alt shot and Best ball will be something else.

I have played with a few of the other participants and I know where my pick and money are going and it isn't Tagcest.

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mikedean441 said:

234...any chance your GPS was set to meters? If so then its 255 and we are in business!

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mancest said:

I wish my friend... that would be a miracle. but I will eat Wheaties both days we play in this and see if it gets me the distance the breakfast burrito did not on Sunday.

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mikedean441 said:

ok plan B

How about I give us the distance off the tee? If so I would need 2 things from you

1. Throw darts with irons
2. Make sure I do not have to hit any shots from 30 yards to 90 yards.

Thanks

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mikedean441 said:

ok plan B

How about I give us the distance off the tee? If so I would need 2 things from you

1. Throw darts with irons
2. Make sure I do not have to hit any shots from 30 yards to 90 yards.

Thanks

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jlew2144 said:

Believe I saw somewhere that a 7W was traveling somewhere in the 250 range-- I think you called it smoke and mirrors????

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mancest said:

Fun stuff, I can see how Tagcest might be the public team but I will give some insight for those that might be curious... This will be my 3rd THP championship and I am currently 0 for 2. 411 I think has more appearances and zero victories.

I hit a decent amount of fairways (was 9 of 14 on Sunday) but my longest was 234 and I averaged right at 200 yards... so if we are using my tee shot in the shamble format we are going to be hitting longer clubs or laying up on par 4s. Alt shot and Best ball will be something else.

I have played with a few of the other participants and I know where my pick and money are going and it isn't Tagcest.

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JDax said:

The odds aren't really a power rankings per se, I'm not sure who I would pick either. But knowing that You & The Captain are going to draw a lot of action regardless, as an Oddsmaker, there isn't any need to provide a premium in the number to entice more action. The house doesn't care who wins, as long as they balance the action out and collect the vig.


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mancest said:

totally understand and agree. As I mentioned, makes perfect sense that we are the "public team" because honestly how do you look at all those tags and then pick someone else?

Great work on all this, this is going to a be a THP Championship to remember!

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JDax said:

Y'all are like the Dallas Cowboys or Alabama, where will be no line value there, the public is going to hammer the number anyway.

During the Hype Event, MPeterson opened as the favorite, but by tee off, OITW had been bet into the favorite spot. So the action will cause some movement.


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golfunfiltered said:

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Deano said:

Still pulling for my boys Geeked Out, I love those odds!

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ToohipGottaGo said:

Smashing Baby. Need some love for the Jersey Burners.

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Deano said:

Still pulling for my boys Geeked Out, I love those odds!

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