Is Collin Morikawa proof that putting is overrated?

[shanewu]

There are definitely a lot of stats that we put too much stock into, especially season-long stats. What matters more is how someone stacks up at that tournament. It's not rare for a guy to be average all season long and then come in and be top 10 in a bunch of stats for that tournament and then win.

 

[JMB3]

I think it’s overrated in the sense that some view it as the most-important part of the game. And I’m not sure I would have thought that without starting Broadie’s book too. Interesting stuff. What did the data show, something like in more than 300 victories studied, SG putting was only 35% of the winner’s overall strokes gained? Obviously, it’s still super important as that number is like twice the season average for the top players in the world. So I guess it just depends how highly you rate putting to begin with.

 

[Templet0n]

Ever stroke counts the same. A 400 yard drive and a 1 foot putt. Unless there is a penalty involved. It’s the same. So in that sense a putt is no more important than anything else. But, we miss those 2 and 3 footers all the time.

 

[JMB3]

Ever stroke counts the same. A 400 yard drive and a 1 foot putt. Unless there is a penalty involved. It’s the same. So in that sense a putt is no more important than anything else. But, we miss those 2 and 3 footers all the time.

Sure is. But pros make 99.9% of gimme putts. Few can do what Bryson is doing. And putting is made easier by shorter approach shots. Doesn’t mean putting isn’t important, but where are the winners making the biggest difference versus the field? It’s an interesting analysis, to me at least.

 

[Chef23]

Not to win majors. You can obviously win regularly if you can hit greens and putt ok. This past week Morikawa was I think 57th in strokes gained putting and lost ground on Sunday. You can make money if you are a top level ball striker but to win majors and be among the best in the game you need too putt well.

 

[Templet0n]

Sure is. But pros make 99.9% of gimme putts. Few can do what Bryson is doing. And putting is made easier by shorter approach shots. Doesn’t mean putting isn’t important, but where are the winners making the biggest difference versus the field? It’s an interesting analysis, to me at least.

I agee but it does not always add up. Again take Keegan Bradley as an example. At the work day. He gained 15 shots on the field tee to green. That means he was hitting it long and straight off the tee and hitting his approaches pretty close.

But gave that all more back on the green.

 

[blueonblack]

In his first 23 events on tour Morikawa has 2 wins (Reno-Tahoe and Workday), 2 runner ups (3M and Charles Schwab), and made the cut in 22 of 23 events. All this success has come while being one of the best ball strikers (if not the best) and one of the worst putters on tour. In looking at his strokes gained numbers. He is 23rd - SG off the tee, 1st - SG approach, 8th - SG tee to green, 13th - SG total, 122nd - SG around the green, and 150th - SG putting. In looking at his putting a little deeper. He is 160th in total putting, 77th in putting average, 104th, in 1 putt %, 155th in 3 putt avoidance, 168th from putting inside 3 feet, and his best ranking from inside 8' is 131st. The only range he seems to excel at is 9' and 10' where he is top 50 in both, but once outside of 10 feet drops back into the 100's.

Mark Broadie's work on strokes gained started to shine the light that putting was overrated. My contention has always been that players who win multiple times on tour. Are supreme ball strikers whose ballstiking puts them in contention more than other players. Then the weeks the putter gets hot, they win. Collin would seem to bear this out as his two best strokes gained weeks in 2020 were Schwab and Workday. Where he gained .832 in the Schwab (finshed 2nd) and Workday 1.182 (won). Is Collin help to prove Broadie correct that ballstriking tumps putting?

Mark Broadie
@MarkBroadie
·
May 1, 2018

"Putting from inside 10 feet is very different than putting from 10 feet. The PGA Tour average is 88% inside 10 feet, and just 40% from 10 feet. In 1 of 10 rounds tour pros hole 100 percent of their putts from inside 10 feet."

All of these guys are lights out putters if they are on the PGA tour. Morikawa is hitting it well, giving himself chances, as they say. When the putter gets hot for a PGA tour guy, and their ballstriking is hot, they win or come close.

One guy that comes to mind as a putting bandit that outshines his ballstriking is Ian Poulter.

 

[wadesworld]

In his first 23 events on tour Morikawa has 2 wins (Reno-Tahoe and Workday), 2 runner ups (3M and Charles Schwab), and made the cut in 22 of 23 events. All this success has come while being one of the best ball strikers (if not the best) and one of the worst putters on tour. In looking at his strokes gained numbers. He is 23rd - SG off the tee, 1st - SG approach, 8th - SG tee to green, 13th - SG total, 122nd - SG around the green, and 150th - SG putting. In looking at his putting a little deeper. He is 160th in total putting, 77th in putting average, 104th, in 1 putt %, 155th in 3 putt avoidance, 168th from putting inside 3 feet, and his best ranking from inside 8' is 131st. The only range he seems to excel at is 9' and 10' where he is top 50 in both, but once outside of 10 feet drops back into the 100's.

Mark Broadie's work on strokes gained started to shine the light that putting was overrated. My contention has always been that players who win multiple times on tour. Are supreme ball strikers whose ballstiking puts them in contention more than other players. Then the weeks the putter gets hot, they win. Collin would seem to bear this out as his two best strokes gained weeks in 2020 were Schwab and Workday. Where he gained .832 in the Schwab (finshed 2nd) and Workday 1.182 (won). Is Collin help to prove Broadie correct that ballstriking tumps putting?

If here were a great putter, he'd have more than 2 wins.

 

[greenOak]

Proof may be a strong word, but one of many data points that points to ball-striking being more important than putting.

 

[WMac19]

I can't ever say that putting is overrated. All I know is that when I putt poorly, I don't score well. Yet if I'm putting very well, a scrambling day may still offer a fine score.

I think with the pros is splitting hairs because everyone on tour can roll the rock. Obviously some will be better than others but they're all incredibly capable.

I do agree with the premise that a fantastic ball striker will very often put themselves in good position and it's then when a hot putter can catapult them toward victory.

And as much as I place on great putting, I'd personally prefer to be a great ball striker with average putting ability vs average ball striker vs excellent putting.

But that's only because it would leave me with just one facet of the game I'd need to improve.

 

[pattyboy21]

Out of the pros own mouths I've heard them say many times something like this: "we're all able to put the balls on the greens but the putting is what makes the difference".

With elite amatuers and pros that I've played with, that seems to bear out as well.

Something about top echelon tour pros too: they seem to make the crucial putts when they have to.

 

[Tevenor]

Out of the pros own mouths I've heard them say many times something like this: "we're all able to put the balls on the greens but the putting is what makes the difference".

With elite amatuers and pros that I've played with, that seems to bear out as well.

Something about top echelon tour pros too: they seem to make the crucial putts when they have to.

This is exactly right. All of them can get on the green. The major difference on someone who is "on" and someone having an "off" day is if they leave themselves <10 footer or > 10 footers. While a great putter can sink higher percentage of > 10 footers, all of the major tour pro's sink high percentages within 10 feet.

To me, putting is the icing on a multi tier cake. If the underlying layers aren't good ( driving, irons, wedges ) then a great icing may make it look respectable, but it won't be a great cake ( leaning, tastes bad, etc. ). If the underlying layers are great, you can ge away with less than stellar icing and still ahve a pretty good cake.



damn it.....now I want some cake.

 

[MrDC]

They're all able to put the ball on the greens, but who gets closer to the flag is really what matters, having a 6' for birdie makes life a lot easier than 15'.

Sure the player who makes more big putts wins, but it all starts with great drives, and then iron play, and Collin does just that.

 

[The Milk Man]

Out of the pros own mouths I've heard them say many times something like this: "we're all able to put the balls on the greens but the putting is what makes the difference".

With elite amatuers and pros that I've played with, that seems to bear out as well.

Something about top echelon tour pros too: they seem to make the crucial putts when they have to.

Is putting what makes the difference though or is that something we have heard for so long everyone believes it? Brad Faxon is widely regarded as the best putter during the Tiger era. Same with Rickie Fowler all everyone does is rave about his putting ability. In both cases putting prowess haven't related to wins though. As you mention in your last sentence it is about making the putt when you have to make it.

 

[DataDude]

Putting is not as important when you are one of the best iron players in the world. Does that make putting overrated? Absolutely not. Just a case of one strength covering another weakness.

 

[TCB2010]

IMO
playing on the pga i feel like making cut after cut is the name of the game. catching fire during one of those rounds to produce top 10s or even a win is the added bonus.
making the cut pays the bills and continues you on to play.
his ball striking is good and by doing that hes making money.
if he continues he'll be top 10 money leaders like he presently is.
drive for show putt for dough, i get it, but hes obviously doing something right.

 

[LDUBFIREGOLFER]

I dont think so. CoMo has other aspects of his game that make up for his putting. Like I often say, talk to me when he wins a major. CoMo may be able to win a weekly, nothing, meaningless PGA Tour event every now and then but his game is never going to win him a major. Just ask DJ about putting in the majors.

Are you being absolutely serious with this statement? Ben Curtis , Todd Hamilton, Shaun Micheel and a host of other far less accomplished players have majors.....what about his leads you to believe his won't have that "magical " week? Majors aren't easy to win but your statement is pretty outlandish considering the guy has 2 wins in 24 starts

 

[Buckeyegolfnut]

That is absolutely a true statement! Golf is a DISTANCE game! How far you can hit the ball dictates your potential. Being closer to the green with your approach means you should be able to get the ball closer to the flagstick. Which will mean easier putts. Mind you, you can't be a total shlub with the flat stick. Didn't Morikawa make a bomb to match Thomas! on the first playoff hole?

All parts of the game need work, but distance makes the game much easier.

 

[OldandStiff]

Stan Utley says the best thing you can do to help your putting is to hit the ball closer to the hole.

Yeah, I tend to be in this camp. Live in it, welcome any newcomers, pass out fliers for available space.

No pro is winning if they're putting from 25' all day, but just about any pro throwing nothing but pin darts can make enough of what's left to. It's the same as anything else in golf. Closer is better, and his iron play was great.

 

[BigMac]

This is exactly right. All of them can get on the green. The major difference on someone who is "on" and someone having an "off" day is if they leave themselves <10 footer or > 10 footers. While a great putter can sink higher percentage of > 10 footers, all of the major tour pro's sink high percentages within 10 feet....

When you really look at the stats (as this article on golf.com did), the pros often get more credit than they're due - at least based upon PGA Tour stats:

From 3 feet - 99.4% make percentage
From 6 feet - 70.21%
From 10 feet - 41.25%
From 15-20 feet - 18.3%
From 25+ feet - 5.45%

Putting is certainly a significant aspect of the game, and given two golfers who are roughly equivalent ballstrikers, the better putter will win more often - but given two guys who are roughly equivalent putters and one is a better ballstriker, the guy who's throwing darts and leaving himself 6 foot putts is going to have a higher make percentage than the guy who's leaving himself 15-20 feet from the pin.

It's a razor-thin line with the pros, as they're stellar at every aspect of the game or they wouldn't be where they are. But take a look at the current stats for the top 5 so far in 2020 in Strokes Gained - Putting:

1. Denny McCarthy
2. Tyrrell Hatton
3. Andrew Putnam
4. Kristoffer Ventura
5. Ian Poulter

Anybody seeing these names consistently atop leaderboards?

 

[BigMac]

Just to tag onto my above post (didn't want to make it a jumbled stream of consciousness), we're conditioned by TV viewing to believe that the pros are making everything they roll. The TV coverage focuses on the spectacular long putts and doesn't show as much of the guys who are 2- and 3-putting everything. Think about it - when they suddenly cut to a guy who's T47 and 55' away from the pin on the green (and isn't Tiger Woods), you know you're about to see him sink some monster putt. You know it before he even hits the ball. They didn't switch coverage to a backmarker to let you watch him two or three putt from there (unless it's Tiger Woods).

Golf isn't like most other televised sports - we don't get to see every play. They jump around the course and focus on who's hot and/or who's pulling off some unbelievable shot to make the coverage compelling and interesting. Sure, all the pros are great players (or they wouldn't be there in the first place), but not everybody out there is shooting lights out like the leaders.

 

[-CRW-]

Strokes Gained - Putting:

1. Denny McCarthy
2. Tyrrell Hatton
3. Andrew Putnam
4. Kristoffer Ventura
5. Ian Poulter

Anybody seeing these names consistently atop leaderboards?

Contrast that with the strokes gained tee to green leaders:

1	Rory McIlroy	1.883
2	Justin Thomas	1.876
3	Hideki Matsuyama	1.781
4	Sergio Garcia	1.653
5	Tyrrell Hatton	1.597
6	Bryson DeChambeau	1.593
7	Patrick Cantlay	1.549
8	Collin Morikawa	1.494
9	Viktor Hovland	1.371
10	Tony Finau	1.278

And strokes gained off the tee:

1	Bryson DeChambeau	1.113
2	Cameron Champ	1.056
3	Sergio Garcia	.981
4	Rory McIlroy	.776
5	Viktor Hovland	.743
6	Jhonattan Vegas	.730
7	Jon Rahm	.698
8	Jason Kokrak	.657
9	Scottie Scheffler	.630
10	Tommy Fleetwood	.610

you see several consistent leaders/winners.

 

[OldandStiff]

Just to tag onto my above post (didn't want to make it a jumbled stream of consciousness), we're conditioned by TV viewing to believe that the pros are making everything they roll. The TV coverage focuses on the spectacular long putts and doesn't show as much of the guys who are 2- and 3-putting everything. Think about it - when they suddenly cut to a guy who's T47 and 55' away from the pin on the green (and isn't Tiger Woods), you know you're about to see him sink some monster putt. You know it before he even hits the ball. They didn't switch coverage to a backmarker to let you watch him two or three putt from there (unless it's Tiger Woods).

Golf isn't like most other televised sports - we don't get to see every play. They jump around the course and focus on who's hot and/or who's pulling off some unbelievable shot to make the coverage compelling and interesting. Sure, all the pros are great players (or they wouldn't be there in the first place), but not everybody out there is shooting lights out like the leaders.

This is why I mostly watch Thursday coverage. When they don't have countless highlights from previous days to show, and have to follow limited groups and show almost every shot, you see that the pros make plenty of mistakes.

 

[BigMac]

This is why I mostly watch Thursday coverage. When they don't have countless highlights from previous days to show, and have to follow limited groups and show almost every shot, you see that the pros make plenty of mistakes.

You can even see the change in coverage when one of the leaders starts falling apart. Look at Harold Varner last year at the PGA Championship - he was in the final pairing with Koepka on Sunday and the media was all aflutter about him all weekend. He was the next coming of Tiger! As soon as he melted down and started his tumble down the leaderboard, you hardly saw another one of his shots for the rest of the day - they'd show Koepka, then cut away to another group rather than show Varner slogging around the course. Tiger is virtually the only exception to the rule - he'll still draw the lion's share of coverage even when he's T73 and falling all over his own feet.