Truvis Immortal with Budget Golf: 2019 THP Championship- Odds

JDax

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The THP Championship is our community's Championship, and all those who enter want to sit on the THP Throne come Sunday afternoon, and this week our attention turns to our version of Glory’s Last Chance. This year the volume has been turned up all the way to 11, with the normal sponsor Budget Golf partnering with Callaway Golf and The Coeur d'Alene Resort. This event promises to be epic and I’m super excited to follow along this weekend and provide some coverage for the THP Universe.
(Official Thread: https://www.thehackersparadise.com/f...p-championship)

This year there are Two Competitions in One, where the winning team will not only take home the winning Team’s swag purse, but they will also win a trip to the golf ball Mecca of Chicopee, MA to DESIGN A LIMITED EDITION CALLAWAY TRUVIS GOLF BALL that will actually be SOLD on the Budget Golf website with a portion of the proceeds going to an awesome charity.

When & Where
September 6th-8th, 2019
The Coeur d'Alene Resort
Coeur d' Alene, ID

Take a look at the course that the 12 teams will attempt to navigate below, it looks spectacular.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cput...g#action=share

The Teams:
MattyDMPLS (0.8) and Checkered (26.9) = Purple Rain (Combined Handicap: 14)
OldeDude (17.8) and jim54 (9.9) = Assisted Living (Combined Handicap: 14)
Millsan1 (18.1) and MoparMan (15) = M&M (Combined Handicap: 17)
Magic Spell (20) and oumagic (11.3) = The Illusionists (Combined Handicap: 16)
King Veo (19.8) and time4tim (13.2) = Fresno Royalty (Combined Handicap: 17)
aljaklaw (18) and Army Golf (8.3) = The Mounties (Combined Handicap: 13)
mancest (12.4) and Wildcat4life (3.8) = Bad Kitty (Combined Handicap: 8)
Duffer Waldorf (12.3) and KY Golfer (4.6) = Derby Duffers (Combined Handicap: 8)
slimjim32 (3.3) and tequila4kapp (16.6) = Drunken Munchies (Combined Handicap: 10)
chefchris79 (14) and KCSmitty (14) = Cooking with Smoke (Combined Handicap: 14)
baylrballa (10.9) and Null Nomad (15.2) = Wandering Bear (Combined Handicap: 13)
Jason Finley (6) and AJ Voelpel (3) = Salty Slice TBA (Combined Handicap: 5)


While there is a lot of balance in the combined handicaps of the teams, with the median combined handicap of the THP Teams at 13 (when the Finley & AJ team gets factored in that number drops to 12), there are some teams that seem to provide really good line value depending on the format.

Format:
Day 1: Shamble 18 Holes
Day 2: Best Ball Front 9 and Alternate Shot back 9

Scoring History & Format:
In 2017, the THP Championship was played in 36 holes over two days on the 2 courses at Cog Hill.
Format:
1st Nine- Shamble (At least 2 scores from each player has to count- 38 lowest score)
2nd Nine- Alt Shot (43 lowest score)
85 was the lowest score on Day 1

3rd Nine- Best Ball (At least 2 scores from each player has to count- 37 lowest score)
4th Nine- Shamble (At least 2 scores from each player has to count- 35 lowest score)
72 was the lowest score on Day 2

+13 (157) was the winning score, it was 3 shots clear of the 2nd place team
The winning Team, Swedish Tiger, shot Even Par on Day 2 in route to the title.

Last year, the THP Championship was played in 45 holes over two days on the 2 courses at Talking Stick.
Format:
1st & 2nd Nine- Shamble (At least 2 scores from each player has to count- 61 lowest score)
3rd Nine- Alt Shot (36 lowest score)
-5 was tied for the was the lowest score on Day 1

Championship Sunday was 18 hole Best Ball
63 was the lowest score on Day 2
Lowest 9 during Best Ball was 29 by Vegetable Esquire & Dirty Hoagies

-11 was the winning score, it was 2 shots clear of the 2nd place team

The Winning Team, SoCal Strippers , shot 63 (-8) on Day 2 in route to the title.

What history tells us about the format is that Alternate Shot is absolute carnage, and the team that is best able to survive that stanza of play will probably go on to win. In 2017, Jersey Burners gave up 9 shots to the field in Alt Shot and went from to the lead to no chance. In 2018, Deep Dish Mountain gave up 6 shots and Cooking with Curry gave up 5 shots in Alt Shot, allowing the entire field back into the event.
One last note on Alt Shot and it’s importance, last year one team finished the Alt Shot 9 holes at E or better during that stanza…. That team went on to win the event.

This year the Alternate Shot stanza is on the back nine on Sunday and includes the majestic Par 3 14th hole (the floating green), that’s Championship pressure, can’t wait to see which team is able to endure the Sunday Heat.

The 2019 THP Championship Sponsored by Budget Golf: Odds to Win
*Note: The Finley & AJ team would absolutely be the odds on favorite, this section will just cover the THP Team. I’ll get to Mr. Finley & AJ in the props section. All teams are competing against each other, and all THP teams are competing against Team Callaway. Only 2 THP’ers will win the HOF tag. The THP team doesn’t have to beat Team Callaway to win the trip to design the Truvis.

Derby Duffers: 6/5 – I like Low/Mid & Mid/Mid pairings when handicapping who will make a run. This pairing includes a low/mid pairing, event experience, and a combined cap that is 5 shots lower than the median average. They also got the benefit of a good draw in that they didn’t draw the Finley/AJ pairing on Day 1. That group is super fun to play with (I know from personal experience), but in competition it might be best to avoid the Callaway Kings of Trash Talk.

Bad Kitty: 3/1- Another Low/Mid pairing that has all of the attributes that favors the team above: This pairing includes a Low/Mid pairing, event experience, and a combined cap that is 5 shots lower than the median average. The key difference is their draw, they play with Finley & AJ on Day 1, and Finley has a particular voodoo magic that draws higher scores out of THP’ers. If they are able to survive the Finley voodoo, look out, they are a team that can survive Alt Shot and design a Truvis when this is over. THP Championship veteran, Mancest, might have something to diffuse the cooler known as Finley.

Drunken Munchies: 7/1- Captain T4K checks in here as a high mid capper (I count 10-17 as mid for these handicapping purposes), and he gets paired with a low capper in slimjim32. This is a type of team that could ham & egg through Best Ball and hold on during Alt Shot. T4K brings the required experience to endure the heat, if Jim can stay consistent, this number might seem cheap.

Wandering Bear: 10/1- Event experience is something that I look for when handicapping events, and event rookies provide a great deal of mystery. This event has a lot of 1st timers, which makes setting odds a little more difficult. This team is made up of 2 rookies, and sometimes it’s hard to predict how the rookies will perform on this type of stage. This team fits the Mid/Mid profile that has had success in prior championships, they will need to make their pops count in Best Ball, and grind it out during Alt Shot, but that is doable.

The Mounties: 12/1- Army Golf brings experience and that could anchor this team, he draws aljaklaw as a partner in a Mid/High pairing. If Alternate Shot wasn’t in the format this line would be lower, as I tend to value experience. The format and the rumor of iron headcovers, sets the line here. Their combined cap is right on the median average for the field, so a pick on them could provide sneaky value.

Cooking with Smoke: 15/1- This is the spot on the board where bargain hunting should begin, and of the higher numbers on the board, this Mid/Mid pairing could be a sneaky value pick that could provide a lot of value. They fit the pairing profile that could make noise, if this event was contested over 45 holes, I would like them more. Teams in which both players card the same cap, are often dangerous in this format, because neither feels the need to carry all of the water for the pairing. Lack of experience is a cause for concern here.

Assisted Living: 15/1- jim54 finally makes an event appearance here, and with a name like Assisted Living, you know that they can putt even on porcelain. This pairing could be the type of team that is just slow and steady, allows carnage to occur around them and you look up on the back nine on Sunday and they are within a stoke or two of the lead. If OldeDude gets hot and they survive Alt Shot, watch out.

Purple Rain: 16/1- This is a Low/High team, features the lowest handicap in the entire field in MattyDMPLS and the highest handicap in the entire field with Checkered. The last several years the Low/High pairings have finished several shots off the eventual winner. In 2018, Clubbed Seal fit this team’s exact profile, and finished in red numbers, but 10 off the score of the winner. If this team is in the thick of it come Sunday, it will be because Checkered golfed his ball well and took advantage of his pops. Alternate Shot could become a train wreck, this is a high risk/high reward type of pick. This team could arrive at the turn on Sunday with a share of the lead and who takes the tee shot at 14 could loom large.

Fresno Royalty: 16/1- This Mid/High pairing features a guy in time4tim that has won a tag in this very event. That makes them cagey and provides value at this spot of the board. Like any Mid/High pairing, they will have to make the most of their pops and survive that final 9. That is a lot to ask of a Mid/High, but not out of the realm of possibility. Time4tim enters here off of the waiting list, the last time he did that, his team won the whole thing.

The Illusionists: 20/1- Try to understand, Try to understand, Try, Try, Try to understand… Does this team have a magic man? We will find out, what this team lacks in experience makes up for it in moxie. Just look at Magic Spell’s Avatar pic, do you want to bet against a man with steely eyes? Getting 4 pops in Alt Shot for a Mid/High pairing could lead to a great escape (see what I did there)?

M&M: 25/1- This team has the highest combined Handicap in the field, and will need to play lights out to take this down. It’s not impossible, depending on the format and a hot start; this is the type of team that could be a great story. With no pressure, they could just go out and play within themselves and make a run. THP Event pressure is a real thing, and often it’s the team that can best handle that pressure that wins in the end. The odds are the longest on the board, but judging by some questionable footwear scripting rumors, I believe that this team is already loose.

If they were on the board to compete for the HOF Tag:

Salty Slice TBA: 1/6- or -600- There were rumors that yours truly would be Finley’s partner for this event, he gets an upgrade drawing AJ instead. This team is the team to beat in the open field, Finley has a way of getting into your head and living rent free there forever. My therapist is still working with me on trauma caused by my run in with the Dark Lord of the Hideaway. If you draw them you will have fun, but probably get your teeth kicked in on any side sauce action. You have been warned, this duo is not to be trifled with. AJ should play lights out without the side game pressure of playing Finley. (For the record, I didn't duck playing Finley again, I signed up and didn't get in).

My Pick:
Go to the Event Contest Thread and find out….
https://www.thehackersparadise.com/f...ionship/page12
 
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So you're saying we can't lose? Starting at the bottom, the only path is up. I like it.

If we win, not only will it be a Cinderella Story, I will wear a Cinderella Tierra.

MoparMan, we got this. Lights out needed? Lights out we will bring!

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The big thing that you touched on to me is the THP Event experience. I would imagine that the anxiety is a lot less for veterans of the format vs. newbies. Unless some of these newbies have ice in their veins, which would be cool.
 
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Danimal;n8900057 said:
The big thing that you touched on to me is the THP Event experience. I would imagine that the anxiety is a lot less for veterans of the format vs. newbies. Unless some of these newbies have ice in their veins, which would be cool.

Look at your first event , how long did it take you to settle in? In a 36 hole event there could be several teams that shoot themselves out of it by the time they settle in...


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Is there a miss the cut bet?
 
No matter the odds, I wish I was in a group.

Have fun, and good luck everyone!
 
Inner me

Time to make em



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Nice breakdown Jdax as always! Thank you
 
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mancest;n8900073 said:
Is there a miss the cut bet?

I’ll work on props...


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Pears;n8900075 said:
No matter the odds, I wish I was in a group.

Have fun, and good luck everyone!

You and me both!!


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This is awesome
 
JB;n8900089 said:
This is awesome

is the format locked in for both days as JDax lists in the first post?
 
15/1, I'll take it!

My first THP event with a floating green...what could go wrong?

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This is awesome. I love all the work put in and the breakdown of each team well done JDax
 
mancest;n8900091 said:
is the format locked in for both days as JDax lists in the first post?

I got that from a post by @JB in the event thread ...


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Danimal;n8900057 said:
The big thing that you touched on to me is the THP Event experience. I would imagine that the anxiety is a lot less for veterans of the format vs. newbies. Unless some of these newbies have ice in their veins, which would be cool.

I don’t have ice in my veins, but I do have IPA. It is cool-ish?
 
JDax;n8900107 said:
I got that from a post by @JB in the event thread ...


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yup, I just saw that post... interesting....
 
Thanks JDax aka "The Book" for posting the odds. Your insights are always very helpful.
 
Can’t go against my buddy Jim54 and Assisted Living!

Also JDax, Dirty Hoagies went from even par on Saturday to -9 on Sunday with a 29 on the back 9 also I believe...
 
This was a fantastic read, thank you JDax for putting these Odds threads together, it's not an easy task but you always step up to the plate and knock it out of the park!
 
Awesome write up and odds, fun to reach the potential for each team.. either way going to be an awesome follow!

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Big SoIL;n8900120 said:
Can’t go against my buddy Jim54 and Assisted Living!

Also JDax, Dirty Hoagies went from even par on Saturday to -9 on Sunday with a 29 on the back 9 also I believe...

You are correct.
The original post has been updated to reflect this feat.....
 
JDax;n8900133 said:
You are correct.
The original post has been updated to reflect this feat.....

If only both of our team hadn’t crapped the bed on Saturday...
 
Big SoIL;n8900135 said:
If only both of our team hadn’t crapped the bed on Saturday...

There was a lot of that going around...
 
Thanks for taking the time Jdax! Good stuff!
 
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