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GIRs determine scoring average?

golf4life

golf4life

Grip n rip
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I recently found this article

http://probablegolfinstruction.com/golf-scoring-statistics.htm

And some stats guy came up with the following formula to determine a players scoring average: 95.1 - (2 * GIR avg. per 18 holes)

I plugged my last 20 round numbers in: 95.1 - (2 * 7.6) = 79.9, my actual scoring average for those rounds is 8.2 over par so this indicator does seem to be quite accurate for me. I believe it assumes a par 72 course for the calculation.

The chart on the link has some other indicators, of which all the ones I track bring me quite close to my scoring average. Is it really this simple?

Anyone else able to plug in your stats and see if you obey the rules in this study? I think this also shows that I'm average at best in my short game, as I'm a little above the predicted score if anything.
 
According to this theory if you hit all 18 GIR's you should shoot a 59.
 
My average over my last 20 rounds is 6 GIR, so 95.1 - (6*2) = 83.1. However, my scoring average over that span of time is 86.8. I think that is mainly due to high numbers coming from trouble off of the tee.
 
yorkem said:
According to this theory if you hit all 18 GIR's you should shoot a 59.
Click to expand...


Haha, true. But then again, when pros go low (like 62s and 63s) they usually flash up the 16/18 GIRs which corelates pretty well.
 
I don't have enough stats put in to try this yet, but I'd assume it's somewhat accurate. I score much better when I hit GIR.
 
arydolphin said:
My average over my last 20 rounds is 6 GIR, so 95.1 - (6*2) = 83.1. However, my scoring average over that span of time is 86.8. I think that is mainly due to high numbers coming from trouble off of the tee.
Click to expand...

That would make sense. You are not reaching what you should according to the equation (83.2) which would indicate something as in errant drivers here and there.

To get technical, there should probably be an exponential rate of change as the lower scores are less affected rather than the higher ones from more or less GIRs I would think.
 
Just looked at my last 20 rounds 4.6 GIR/18. So my scoring average is 85.9. Which is about the same as my handicap(13) But my real scoring average is 92. I usually play difficult courses. So the formula is not effected by slope in regards to handicap index?? I guess the difficulty in my home course is in the greens.
 
Jeanthemachine said:
Interesting but useful?
Click to expand...

Not sure. If you find yourself significantly above the predicted score, it probably helps determine what you should be working on (putting, reducing penalty strokes, etc)

And also, it shows if I want to reach my goal of sub 5 handicap, realistically I have to find a way to hit more greens
 
Schanker said:
Just looked at my last 20 rounds 4.6 GIR/18. So my scoring average is 85.9. Which is about the same as my handicap(13) But my real scoring average is 92. I usually play difficult courses. So the formula is not effected by slope in regards to handicap index?? I guess the difficulty in my home course is in the greens.
Click to expand...

I would guess the same. How many putts per round at your home course? And how many putts per GIR If you have that stat?
 
golf4life said:
I would guess the same. How many putts per round at your home course? And how many putts per GIR If you have that stat?
Click to expand...

2.00 putts/hole. 2.36 putts/GIR. This is over my last 20 rounds. 11 of those were home course. I guess it shows short game will make the biggest improvement on your scoring.
 
95.1 - (2 * 9.45) = 76.2, my actual handicap of 7.2.

Hmmm, this formula is as dumb as calculating handicap. To me it just looks like another method of being able to predict scoring potential, as they say.
 
It actually kind of appears that it is more your potential not actual average of scores.. But at any rate, who cares no one would determine their handicap from this formula anyway
 
I had 5 GIR in my last round and shot a 121...yes, the blow up holes really do kill your score.
 
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