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Amateur Golfer Cards 3 Aces In One Day!

SmiterOfPv1x said:
So basically the same odds as hitting the Powerball. Yet people do that, 30 people or so a year do it in the USA. So roughly the same odds as being ate by a shark. Interesting.

I'm not saying much either way on whether it happened. I hope it did for this lady, what a day to remember! However I really dislike when people call others liars without evidence to support it. It is difficult to wrap ones head around for sure. But not impossible.
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Some people feel so badly about themselves that they must make others look bad to try to make themselves look better.

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OGputtnfool said:
Some people feel so badly about themselves that they must make others look bad to try to make themselves look better.

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
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I Actually love my life, I'm just not a fool. And powerball is 156,000,000. That was two aces. Now multiply 156,500,000 times 12,448 and see what u get. I can't help if u believe everything u read as That is certainly your prerogative; however, that is just not me. Would u believe she aced all four hole in ones because someone signed it? 8 in a row? Where do u stop or do u just believe everything u see? Now Im truly curious

I will say something nice. I love playing the Men's course at Oak Tree where u live. I also enjoy the East course. To put in perspective and I'm not sure if you're familiar with the men's course would u believe a true 14 handicapper shot even par on that course? It's impossible btw but would u believe it If u saw a signed scorecard?
 
Atxpkrgolf said:
I Actually love my life, I'm just not a fool. And powerball is 156,000,000. That was two aces. Now multiply 156,500,000 times 12,448 and see what u get. I can't help if u believe everything u read as That is certainly your prerogative; however, that is just not me. Would u believe she aced all four hole in ones because someone signed it? 8 in a row? Where do u stop or do u just believe everything u see? Now Im truly curious
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I didn't say I was talking about you. I was simply replying to Smiter's comment. Nice to see you own it though.
 
I wonder how many rounds of golf have been played, in history. Could it be 156 some odd million times 12 some odd thousand? Doubt it. Could the feat be due? Dunno. Or would all of those rounds need to be played by the same person for the odds to jive?

And how do the numbers work? Is it only after a gazillion million attempts that it may then happen, as per the odds? Or can it happen on like the fifth try but then not again for a gazillion million, minus five? Thus mathematically, securing the odds. My brain hurts already.

Do I believe it happened? Not really, I'm a cynic and a generally distrusting person. Do I think it's possible?

Of course I do. Even the ridiculously, astronomically, wildly crazy odds against it happening, still suggests that it is indeed a possibility.
 
Wow. that is insane. I would love just one. I can't imagine 3 in the same day.
 
Deano said:
Wow, you've got some serious trust issues.
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Or jealous that a lady has hit 6 holes in one in her time playing golf
 
As I get older, I question things a lot more than I did when I was younger - I guess its due to being "around" a while. I don't consider myself cynical, but skeptical. Three holes in one in the same day I guess is possible, although the odds are inconceivable, especially so for an amateur.

How many of us have played in Scramble events where a team handed in a scorecard of -18 or -20 or better. Did we question the honesty of the golfers, or did we rush up to congratulate them? I would be skeptical! This is my last post or thought about this topic.
 
Why has it gotten to a point where we in society just can't be happy for someone and not break it down a million different ways cynically?

If its true, AWESOME! If not, doesn't effect me in the least still.

JMO, of course.
 
Jman said:
Why has it gotten to a point where we in society just can't be happy for someone and not break it down a million different ways cynically?

If its true, AWESOME! If not, doesn't effect me in the least still.

JMO, of course.
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It's the inherent human need for justice. If someone lies about such an achievement it is cheating in the worst way.

We love the game, so it makes some of us angry if someone cheats at it.

And yes, if true, don't forget she owes everyone THREE rounds of drinks!!
 
Jman said:
Why has it gotten to a point where we in society just can't be happy for someone and not break it down a million different ways cynically?

If its true, AWESOME! If not, doesn't effect me in the least still.

JMO, of course.
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Pretty much my thoughts exactly.
 
NewGlfr said:
It's the inherent human need for justice. If someone lies about such an achievement it is cheating in the worst way.

We love the game, so it makes some of us angry if someone cheats at it.

And yes, if true, don't forget she owes everyone THREE rounds of drinks!!
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There are many of us who love the game so much, it angers us when people with zero knowledge of the situation and facts of the occasion, on a whim, decide to declare that someone lied about an accomplishment on the course.
 
The odds of an amateur getting a hole on one on a hole is 12,500 to 1. She's a 12 so call it 10000-1. Lets get nuts and call it 5000-1. A pro is 2500-1.

That course has five par threes, so in a given round making one hole in one is 1000-1 against. Once she makes one it is 1250-1 (4 par 3s left), once she makes two it is 1666 -1 (3 par 3s left). So the odds of her making three aces is those multiplied together (well not really but close enough for this kind of rough estimate) or a bit more than 2 billion to 1.

The problem is the whole Bayesian comparative probability thing: If you allow there is even a one in a million chance that someone could fake this, then it is 2000 times more likely that the card is a fake than genuine. Even if there is a 1 in a billion chance someone could fake this it is still twice as likely a fake as real.

That's why serious skepticism is warranted. The math is just nuts.
 
Elbow Jobertski said:
The odds of an amateur getting a hole on one on a hole is 12,500 to 1. She's a 12 so call it 10000-1. Lets get nuts and call it 5000-1. A pro is 2500-1.

That course has five par threes, so in a given round making one hole in one is 1000-1 against. Once she makes one it is 1250-1 (4 par 3s left), once she makes two it is 1666 -1 (3 par 3s left). So the odds of her making three aces is those multiplied together (well not really but close enough for this kind of rough estimate) or a bit more than 2 billion to 1.

The problem is the whole Bayesian comparative probability thing: If you allow there is even a one in a million chance that someone could fake this, then it is 2000 times more likely that the card is a fake than genuine. Even if there is a 1 in a billion chance someone could fake this it is still twice as likely a fake as real.

That's why serious skepticism is warranted. The math is just nuts.
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Glad I'm not the only one who gets it. And to Og, some of us love the game so much that we hate to see people lie about something that didn't happen, the same way we get angered at sandbagged and cheaters
 
Atxpkrgolf said:
Glad I'm not the only one who gets it. And to Og, some of us love the game so much that we hate to see people lie about something that didn't happen, the same way we get angered at sandbagged and cheaters
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Sandbagging and cheating is much easier to prove than this. It's tough to prove something didn't happen. Especially, when you have witnesses that testify it did.
 
Congrats to her! What an awesome feat.
 
OGputtnfool said:
Sandbagging and cheating is much easier to prove than this. It's tough to prove something didn't happen. Especially, when you have witnesses that testify it did.
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True but we've all seen someone claim a 15 in a tourney and tell by their game they're more like a 4-6 and they claim they just had the round of their life. Very frustrating when you want to compete on a fair scale
 
Oh... two rounds. That's (5000/10)*(5000/9)*(5000/8). So only about 175 million to 1. Which sounds like sarcasm, but it really is a huge difference. I might believe a few impartial independent witnesses who seem reliable at that number.

At 16 billion to one I might not believe my own eyes.
 
Elbow Jobertski said:
Oh... two rounds. That's (5000/10)*(5000/9)*(5000/8). So only about 175 million to 1. Which sounds like sarcasm, but it really is a huge difference. I might believe a few impartial independent witnesses who seem reliable at that number.

At 16 billion to one I might not believe my own eyes.
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I also read it as in one round. That makes it wayyyyyyyy more doable . Reading is tough
 
Elbow Jobertski said:
Oh... two rounds. That's (5000/10)*(5000/9)*(5000/8). So only about 175 million to 1. Which sounds like sarcasm, but it really is a huge difference. I might believe a few impartial independent witnesses who seem reliable at that number.

At 16 billion to one I might not believe my own eyes.
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Yeah basically the same odds as winning the Powerball. Which someone does 20ish times a year. I am still waiting on my turn with this one.

Look the odds are long on this happening but one of my biggest peaves is someone calling another a liar without any evidence. I'm glad you came around, sorta anyways...:)
 
SmiterOfPv1x said:
Yeah basically the same odds as winning the Powerball. Which someone does 20ish times a year. I am still waiting on my turn with this one.

Look the odds are long on this happening but one of my biggest peaves is someone calling another a liar without any evidence. I'm glad you came around, sorta anyways...:)
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Well 3 in one round would legit be impossible so I understand. Obv makes wayyyy more sense now even tho it is indeed an incredible feat.
 
I try to fall on the more skeptical side rather than the credulous side. I've witnessed enough general deception and gaslighting to know that people lie about all sorts of things for bizarre reasons. Even so, it isn't a matter of not trusting people when you are talking astronomical improbability, just a matter of math.

If I went out tomorrow on a course with 4 par threes and aced all of them, I'd conclude that I had a psychotic break of some sort. Or at least somehow have developed a false memory. That's far more likely than something that is about 26 trillion to one against.
 
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