Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

Desmond

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The problem with ordering a lockdown is a certain percentage of the public won’t obey the orders no matter what. My daughter still has to college roommates in San Diego that are socializing with friends four or five days each week by going to parties at other friends apartments. Much of the human to human contact in Minnesota is at grocery stores and other essential businesses like gas stations that are open. Most of these people could be getting groceries delivered and not ever having to go to the store. We are able to get deliveries for all of our needs in a remote rural area in northern Minnesota with only 12 people per square mile so most of the population has no needs to go to stores but many still are. There are also a lot of people exercising outside around the lakes in Minneapolis, many thousands each day which means they are often inside that 6 foot personal space barrier.

Even if we could shut down completely for three weeks this virus can easily come back. They had to close all the movie theaters in China last week for a second time.
Can't believe they opened the theaters. You would need a slow reopening. More businesses open with people still practicing distancing when opening.

Like you, I recognize the hazards of being outside and socializing, or even going to the grocery store. I've limited my going out to about 2X per week to store at times for old people and I'm cutting down. I get in and out and don't talk with anyone. Then I strip off my clothes and wash them down, take a shower. A little overboard but who knows.

There will always be a certain percentage of population who blow everyone off. It is up to local, state and federal leadership to set the example. We need celebrities to do PSA for those who only listen to celebs.
 

TheHeez

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https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Projections updated...

Projected total deaths down to 80k. And it also predicts a much sooner end to the outbreak.
It is crazy (& encouraging, yet alarming) the change in the numbers. CA went from having 5k+ deaths to 1,800. Our peak is now on 4/14 and the projection shows it waning to nothing by June. It seems obvious that as more data arrives the projections improve. I wonder how much is data increase and how much has to do with CA's aggressive social distancing timeline.
 

myspinonit

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The problem with ordering a lockdown is a certain percentage of the public won’t obey the orders no matter what. My daughter still has to college roommates in San Diego that are socializing with friends four or five days each week by going to parties at other friends apartments. Much of the human to human contact in Minnesota is at grocery stores and other essential businesses like gas stations that are open. Most of these people could be getting groceries delivered and not ever having to go to the store. We are able to get deliveries for all of our needs in a remote rural area in northern Minnesota with only 12 people per square mile so most of the population has no needs to go to stores but many still are. There are also a lot of people exercising outside around the lakes in Minneapolis, many thousands each day which means they are often inside that 6 foot personal space barrier.

Even if we could shut down completely for three weeks this virus can easily come back. They had to close all the movie theaters in China last week for a second time.
I just saw a bit on CNN with untold thousands of Chinese crowding a few inches from another on some hiking trail this past weekend. Scares the crap outta me with the thousands of Canadians still returning from at risk locations and giving lipservice at the airport to quarantine for 14 days.
 

obedt

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Such a fine line for opening up at the right time. I have no idea how when to draw that line. But a lot of news are positive; hopefully this will be a thing of the past soon.

Our kid has been looking forward to her B-day May1 since the New Year. She wanted a party at her day care with the PJ Masks. Hard to tell, but I think it's unlikely schools here will be open by then.
 

tequila4kapp

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Even if we could shut down completely for three weeks this virus can easily come back. They had to close all the movie theaters in China last week for a second time.
And yet China’s numbers fundamentally don’t change. It is kind of infuriating that a country would act this way when it so abundantly clear that the actions of one affect millions abroad, thanks to our global economy.
 

Desmond

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And yet China’s numbers fundamentally don’t change. It is kind of infuriating that a country would act this way when it so abundantly clear that the actions of one affect millions abroad, thanks to our global economy.
Wonder if this will change our approach to a global economy - one unregulated semi-industrial county can cut the world down to nothing. That is a huge cost in profits and people. I suspect some companies will change but the lure of profits will take others back - hope not.
 

GolferGal

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Wells Fargo has posted they are already at their limit for requests for the paycheck protection program. They haven't even taken applications yet, just an online request for for an application, and they said based on that they aren't even accepting the request for an application at this time.

We know that these are tough times, and we’re committed to helping you get through this. We announced on April 5, 2020 that Wells Fargo is targeting to distribute a total of $10 billion to small business customers under the requirements of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and will focus on serving two segments: nonprofits and small businesses with fewer than 50 employees.

We have received forms from customers expressing interest in the PPP that we expect will fill the company’s capacity to lend under the program, as Wells Fargo continues to operate under existing asset cap limitations. Given the exceptionally high volume of requests we have already received, we will not be able to accept any additional requests for a loan through the Paycheck Protection Program. We will review all expressions of interest submitted by customers via our online form through April 5 and provide updates in the coming days.

We have also announced that fees generated through the program will be quickly returned to small businesses as charitable grants to non-profits that support small businesses, which is a focus of Wells Fargo’s philanthropic efforts.

Press Release:
Wells Fargo Receives Strong Interest in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)
 

Hecaviator

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I agree wholeheartedly. I am an actuary and have been desperate for some data that I could look at and say this would be really good information for decision making and there is next to none out there. On March 17th in another forum I floated the idea of the United States putting everyone on lockdown and doing a 100,000 person random testing and then following those folks for 14 days to see how things went testing them in the middle and again at the end. I felt the dat gained would be invaluable in decision making. I was told the tests were needed for sick people. To me though if you're sick they are treating the symptoms not the disease right now so there isn't really a need to confirm you have it. That was 3 weeks ago now and we are 4 weeks from decision on what to do on May 1 at a federal level. I bet a lot of people would like to have the results of a study like that right now.
Obviously, given my comments I think you are on the right track. However, I'm not sure it would take 100,000 tests. Statistically, somewhere between 100 and 400 would offer reasonably high levels of confidence to paint the picture more clearly: at least clearly enough to make better decisions regarding the resource requirements. Such tests would have to be done at a more discrete level than the individual states, probably between 2 and 8 locations in most states depending on the diversity of circumstances. Let's say it involves a total of 200 testing areas in the 50 states and 5 inhabited US territories like Puerto Rico. Let's assume 300 tests would be sufficient in each. 200 X 300 = 60,000. But the idea is valid. Funny how when one works with data in one setting it migrates to their thinking in many other situations. Is it a curse or blessing? :ROFLMAO:

I suppose these numbers don't really matter at this point because the government hasn't done it, isn't going to do it, and the horse is already out of the barn. Be well. Be kind.
 

JDax

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e1iterate

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Wells Fargo has posted they are already at their limit for requests for the paycheck protection program. They haven't even taken applications yet, just an online request for for an application, and they said based on that they aren't even accepting the request for an application at this time.

We know that these are tough times, and we’re committed to helping you get through this. We announced on April 5, 2020 that Wells Fargo is targeting to distribute a total of $10 billion to small business customers under the requirements of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and will focus on serving two segments: nonprofits and small businesses with fewer than 50 employees.

We have received forms from customers expressing interest in the PPP that we expect will fill the company’s capacity to lend under the program, as Wells Fargo continues to operate under existing asset cap limitations. Given the exceptionally high volume of requests we have already received, we will not be able to accept any additional requests for a loan through the Paycheck Protection Program. We will review all expressions of interest submitted by customers via our online form through April 5 and provide updates in the coming days.

We have also announced that fees generated through the program will be quickly returned to small businesses as charitable grants to non-profits that support small businesses, which is a focus of Wells Fargo’s philanthropic efforts.

Press Release:
Wells Fargo Receives Strong Interest in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)
My company, First Horizon Bank, will help non customers within our footprint when we start taking apps.
 

baylrballa

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might have already been posted, but got a chuckle out of me.
 

PatsFan

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Updated April 1, 2020 at 12:00 PM
EMERGENCY ORDER EXTENDED
Governor Charlie Baker has issued an emergency order requiring all businesses and organizations that do not provide “COVID-19 Essential Services” to close their physical workplaces and facilities to workers, customers and the public. These businesses are encouraged to continue operations remotely. Governor Baker’s order has been extended until May 4.

Per the updated COVID-19 Essential Service FAQ website, golf operations and playing golf at a Massachusetts golf course, country club or facility is still not permitted as of Wednesday, April 1st at noon until Monday, May 4th at noon.

“Are golf courses considered essential? NO”

Golf Course Maintenance is still permitted per the Essential Services List.


“The Alliance of Massachusetts Golf Organizations (AMGO) is a trusted advocate for the golf community in Massachusetts and is committed to ensuring the health and safety of our golfers, clubs and facilities, staff and volunteers, as well as every person in communities where we live, work and play. We are in daily contact with the other New England Golf Organizations as well as various National Golf Organizations as we continue to navigate and manage the best path forward for our industry during the COVID-19 era.

AMGO has successfully worked with Governor Charlie Baker’s office to allow for golf course maintenance to continue during these temporary closures so they’ll be ready for operations in the near future. We all share the same goal of returning to recreational normalcy, when clubs and facilities can welcome golfers back to the tee. In order to achieve this, we ask that the people in the Massachusetts golf community work through this together in a respectful and responsible way by following the protocols of the CDC, WHO and local health officials.

We appreciate everyone’s understanding of the Governor’s Executive Orders that have been implemented to limit the spread of COVID-19.”

Not what I was hoping for but it was expected.
 

Golfever

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Hecaviator

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You obviously haven’t read any of my posts on the model, I’ve been pointing out the fallacy of the model the whole time.
Have seen some. Not all. Sorry. But, in my defense, there are over 200 pages on this thread now, and I only check in every day or two. Just wondering - have you read all of mine? If you have, this isolation thing IS causing unintended problems. :)
Be well. Be kind.
 

PatsFan

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Such a fine line for opening up at the right time. I have no idea how when to draw that line. But a lot of news are positive; hopefully this will be a thing of the past soon.

Our kid has been looking forward to her B-day May1 since the New Year. She wanted a party at her day care with the PJ Masks. Hard to tell, but I think it's unlikely schools here will be open by then.
I doubt schools will reopen this year. I have heard of people doing drive by Bday parties.
Strange times we are living in.
 

Drumdog

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radiman

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might have already been posted, but got a chuckle out of me.
This is funny and isn't at the same time. It honestly does a great job materializing my thoughts on this. It's as if you can't question some of the decisions being made. I still worry about other adverse effects of a depression. Suicide, violent crimes, domestic abuse, malnutrition, etc.
 

JDax

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As my understanding is that people are starting to think they can take it proactively out of fear and without knowledge of potential side effects. If someone is critical and it is necessary to try to help them then I believe doctors are trying it to see if it helps but I don't believe there is enough knowledge for people to believe that this is a miracle treatment and I don't believe there is any documentation supporting that this is a preventative treatment. Within a day or 2 of the president simply mentioning it, Ohio had to place restrictions on filling prescriptions because of people trying to panic buy it. People not taking it under controlled medical supervision might actually be doing more damage to themselves than good if they don't actually have it.
It’s not like you can buy it over the counter, it still requires a prescription . Doctors in India are prescribing it as a preventative measure for healthcare workers treating patients and asymptomatic household contacts of confirmed cases.

My wife’s doctor prescribed it as a preventative measure (along with upping her Zinc intake). She has taken it off and on for years with no side effects. It’s been around since 1955, so we have a lot knowledge about this drug, it’s not like it’s new to the market. 🤷‍♂️

Here in Nashville, I didn’t experience any issues getting that script filled like normal (like 10 days ago).
 

gmiller598

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But it isn't an over the counter drug. They still need to have a doctor prescribe it for them. That is the confusing part to me. I see mention that people are rushing out and depleting the stock. But, the only way for them to be able to do that is to go to a doctor first and have them find a reasonable reason for them to take it right?
I can only assume there are doctors who prescribed it just because in the same way some doctors overprescribe pain killers or California doctors gave Snoop Dog a medicinal marijuana prescription because he "had a bad back". They were limiting to a 2 week dosage and warning that doctors caught prescribing it without a valid reason would be held accountable.
 

radiman

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Here in Washington, we got the stay home extended out to May 4 as well.

https://q13fox.com/2020/04/02/gov-inslee-extends-statewide-stay-at-home-order-through-may-4/

I just wish Trump would put the whole country on lockdown. The idiot governors that don't have their states locked down should all be fired.
They are only concerned about their states economy and not the people that live there.
But, the people that live there make up the economy. They are one in the same. They rely on the economy for their own well being. It has to be taken into consideration. Aside from that, I don't know if he has the constitutional power to impose such an order. But, I could be wrong.
 

Iceman!

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Got to be tearing the Golf Industry apart:
5ACDF504-94D9-459C-921C-AEDD6085D2FF.jpeg
 

Bernoulli

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The problem with ordering a lockdown is a certain percentage of the public won’t obey the orders no matter what. My daughter still has to college roommates in San Diego that are socializing with friends four or five days each week by going to parties at other friends apartments. Much of the human to human contact in Minnesota is at grocery stores and other essential businesses like gas stations that are open. Most of these people could be getting groceries delivered and not ever having to go to the store. We are able to get deliveries for all of our needs in a remote rural area in northern Minnesota with only 12 people per square mile so most of the population has no needs to go to stores but many still are. There are also a lot of people exercising outside around the lakes in Minneapolis, many thousands each day which means they are often inside that 6 foot personal space barrier.

Even if we could shut down completely for three weeks this virus can easily come back. They had to close all the movie theaters in China last week for a second time.
My daughter who is home with us told me today that someone she knows who stayed in Tampa posted about having her 21st birthday party with a crowd of people in her apartment last night. It just goes to show you that individual behavior can’t be completely controlled. It also foreshadows that when restrictions are lifted the threat of the virus continuing will be real. And this has been proven in China and Hong Kong once they lifted their original restrictions.
 

Hecaviator

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I'm not sure it is still fair to characterize US testing efforts as abysmal. We are currently at @4k tests per million. We are testing @120K people per day, which is about triple the next major country. When expressed on a per million bases our daily test rate is 2nd to Italy and more than S. Korea. I agree that we clearly started very poorly and we don't appear to be doing contact tracking, but we have substantially rebounded from then.

Re quality of the data, you are correct that there are real inconsistencies. However, the quality issues are reasonable constant, meaning there's likely a degree of confidence that can be taken when looking at long term trends, even though the data is not pristine.
It isn't the gross number of tests being performed that is critically important. It is how the testing is being done. Among the reasons I am so critical of the testing done so far are: it hasn't been directed at finding the most valuable information to guide a national, state, or local strategy; it hasn't been carefully orchestrated across the USA; and, it is not addressing potentially significant factors, such as the rate of infection of asymptomatic individuals who are potential "carriers" of the virus. Some data is starting to emerge on that front, but it hasn't been enough and hasn't been gathered in a sufficiently consistent manner to model and understand what we are dealing with.

IMO the testing has been conducted primarily for diagnosis and treatment of individuals, not for strategic management. Maybe that is the right thing to emphasize in this situation, but it doesn't help resolve the chaos and some bad decisions (and failures to make decisions) are evident as a result.

Be well. Be kind.
 
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tequila4kapp

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More fun from China. Italy previously gave China PPE when China was hit hard. China is now selling PPE to Italy in Italy’s time if need. Worse than that, China is re-selling Italy the PPE that Italy gave them.
 

JDax

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