Shot scenario - what would you do?

Below is a picture of the green - I did some measurements

DxDJ5exWwAIeaPd.jpg:large

seeing the picture I still say the same and even with more confidence. Basic mid iron approach shot which I should make. No hard decision here, nothing special at all here imo. If I fail? so be it, ill deal with it like any other fail after a basic normal shot and deserve what I get.
 
Take the correct club and swing away
 
Knockdown 6i, would have a shortened follow through and the ball should move a little left to right. Aim left center of the green to allow for the movement.
 
7 iron for me. Hope my aim and swing is good, and if not then accept the consequences and play on.
 
Looks like people are putting a lot of trust in their ability to make the ball bite the green
 
Below is a picture of the green - I did some measurements

DxDJ5exWwAIeaPd.jpg:large

Now with this pic, I revised my earlier statement.
I will not be pciking up my ball & dropping like I hit in the water & playing 4, saving 1 golf ball.
At this flag, I'm trying to hit a fading smooth punch-like shot. My miss would be to the center of the green typically
 
Probably a 6 iron for me and go for it, if i don't make it and stay on the green, take my medicine and finish out the hole.
 
Looks like people are putting a lot of trust in their ability to make the ball bite the green
No reason it shouldn't unless you thin it, green is rock hard or you're using a crap ball.
 
I would choke down 1" on my 6 iron and put in the middle of the green.
 
Aim for the middle of the green with the appropriate club
 
Below is a picture of the green - I did some measurements

DxDJ5exWwAIeaPd.jpg:large

Looking at the pic, I'd opt for an 8i instead of 7i as mentioned earlier. If my math is correct, it's approximately 17 yards from edge of creek to center of green. If it's 165-170 to center, that means you'd only need about 150-155 to carry the water and 155-160 to the front of the green. Even given that it's uphill, an 8i is plenty here.
 
high cut with a 7 iron so it lands soft
 
I'm looking at the depth of this green signified by 67' which is equal to 22.33 yds. That tells me it's 11 yds. from the front of the green to the center of the green and likewise 11 yds. from the center of the green to the back of the green. Taking those numbers into consideration that means if I am gonna stick this green I have + - 11 yds of room to play with which means I need to be accurate. Therefore the question for me is, can I be confident that I am able to produce that sort of accuracy from 168 yds. out. The odds of me doing so are probably about 1 in 7 or 8 attempts. Therefore, I am gonna lay up short from that distance because I have a better chance at coming away from this hole with a lower score by laying up.
Yet I would applaud those can pull it off from further out.
 
What would you do on your 2nd shot?
You're lying 165-170 yards away from a slightly uphill green. The somewhat smallish green is basically a round island with water all around it except about 12 feet of turf off to the right of the green. The creek in front of the green is about 25 ft. wide.
A miss will be costly. What are you gonna decide to do?
Out of curiosity, what is your play?
 
Out of curiosity, what is your play?

I posted my play of this shot in post #40 in this thread - you can read it there.
 
Looks like people are putting a lot of trust in their ability to make the ball bite the green

On soft greens I’ve had my 7 iron suck back a little before. On normal greens it stops no problem. Love the Apex CF irons stopping power, when combined with a good ball.
 
Looks like people are putting a lot of trust in their ability to make the ball bite the green

Imo there is simply just enough room there where as a normal (for me) mid iron (6,7) is a basic golf shot I should make. Obviously ones ability and yardages (as per club) comes into play. I just don't see anything so bad that says to me "lay up". And honestly Im always in the camp of playing the smarter/safer choice. But there comes a point when I just have to play the game for what it is. Just doesn't seem anything so special outside of a basic swing of a 6 or 7 iron. If I fail then so be it, that doesn't (for me) make it the wrong decision in this case. Put me 200 out with a 4hyb after a poorer tee shot? and then id have to rethink it. Maybe then take my lumps but even that would be based on how well (or not) im playing that day and what things look like in person.
 
Looks like people are putting a lot of trust in their ability to make the ball bite the green
With an 8i or 7i, I would hope so.

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I posted my play of this shot in post #40 in this thread - you can read it there.
It's even the post right before mine! Didn't see it there. :)
 
Looking at the pic the shot doesn't seem that bad. Unless the lie is bad it's just just a stock 170 yard shot. The green itself is decent enough sized and it looks like the grass around it is lush enough that anything that just misses it will stop quickly. 153 carries the creek and you can go all the way out to 200 before you're wet over the green, plenty of room IMO.
 
Looking at the pic the shot doesn't seem that bad. Unless the lie is bad it's just just a stock 170 yard shot. The green itself is decent enough sized and it looks like the grass around it is lush enough that anything that just misses it will stop quickly. 153 carries the creek and you can go all the way out to 200 before you're wet over the green, plenty of room IMO.

The majority of balls that I've seen miss the green in front, back, and left side roll back into the hazard. At least the ones which I observed.
 
I'd just take dead aim and hit a smooth 7i. My miss with irons tends to be a small block so that little extra turf should catch it if I miss.
 
Assuming it'll play closer to 175 being uphill and that the green drops off in the back, I'd want height. Firm 8-iron, conditions permitting.
 
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