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Your Chances of Hitting the 17th Green at TPC Sawgrass

If 20% is the average for hitting this green, I estimate I would hit this green

  • Greater than 20% of the time

    Votes: 28 51.9%

  • About 20% of the time

    Votes: 15 27.8%

  • Less than 20% of the time

    Votes: 11 20.4%
  • Total voters
    54
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Golf Digest published an article that included a recent study of how often amateurs hit their tee shot onto the green at this hole. The ball was dry 20% of the time. This may be from shorter tees than the pros play. The article didn't say what tee players were using. The dispersion pattern from the study was exactly what you'd expect. Lots of balls missing right and left. Lots of balls missing short. Lots of balls missing left and short or right and short. I'm not providing a link to the article, because the bulk of the article was this writer's opinion and in IMO wasn't useful or well thought out.

Besides I'd like to see your reaction to this.

Do these results surprise you or not? Using this data as an average, how do you think you would do, and if you found yourself standing on this tee what would you now do to try to increase your chances of staying dry?
 
20% of amateurs doesn't really surprise me - It is an extremely intimidating shot.

I would like to think I am more than 20% likely to hit the green, but it is tough to say without ever having been there in person.
 
So I believe it's 132 yards to carry and 158 to the back of the green for the pros. I know they will let you hit from the pro tee box if you play there.
That's a 9 iron for me, or a very easy 8 if I want to get the ball to the back. Very simple shot, but then you add in the pressure of playing the 17th at Sawgrass and the water and your body just stiffens up!
 
20% thats it? I'd give myself a 50-50 chance
 
I voted 20% of the time. I think I could do better but not sure by how much. I don't hit a lot of GIR.
 
Having only played the Wooden Sticks replica, I’d say more than 20%. I’d also add an 80% chance of 3 putting once I’m there….
 
I'd put myself around 20%.
 
based on history 100% of the time haha
 
Based on the yardage it would be a 8 or 9 iron for me and I like my chances of hitting the green with those club and think I could do a 20% or over
 
that should be about a solid 9i for me. Shotscope tells me I hit the green 33% of the time with a 9i. It also tells me I hit the green from a teebox at about a 40% rate from that distance (37%from 100-150, 43% from 150-200) I would put my chances at hitting the green somewhere in the 35-40% range I think. Having played it once, I hit the green! Having played a replica of it at Tour 18 many times, I hit it about 80% of the time, but it's definitely not the same.
 
I think I’d give myself 40%. I think I can hit that distance if I don’t let the visual throw me off.
 
I said 20%. If it were not surrounded by water I'd expect to hit it more than I missed it, but that water...
 
Depends on conditions but if all is calm I am saying 75% or higher chance.
 
At a 135+/- yards, I could hit that green at a high percentage. I practice hitting a 20' diameter green from that distance quite often.

Now stopping that ball on that green, that's a different story. The ball would find the water most of the time due excessive roll out.
 
spaceace414 said:
So I believe it's 132 yards to carry and 158 to the back of the green for the pros. I know they will let you hit from the pro tee box if you play there.
That's a 9 iron for me, or a very easy 8 if I want to get the ball to the back. Very simple shot, but then you add in the pressure of playing the 17th at Sawgrass and the water and your body just stiffens up!
Click to expand...
So if that is correct, this study wasn't done from the pro tees. The article said it was 132 yards from tee to the flag that day.
 
I voted over 20%. I have only played a replica hole (Eagle Eye, Bath, MI) and performed. The real thing would be more intimidating, but I don't see myself missing 4 out of 5 shots.
 
In my sim league we played TPC Sawgrass last night with 12 mph wind pushing left to right and a little back at us. I was the only one on my team to land on the green (humble brag) and it seemed like every team struggled to get on the green. One of my teammates had to take 4 tries to get it on the green. Granted if it was in person I don't know that I would have actually made it on the green as it has to be way more intimidating in person than on a simulator
 
Unless it is playing at less than 105 yards, I would say maybe 20% due to how poorly I strike irons overall. If 105 or less and I can put a 54 or 58 degree wedge in my hands, that percentage goes way up.
 
Im the world’s ok’est golfer. If 20% is the average I will hit it exactly 20 times out of 100 tries.
 
The 17th green at Antioch Hills Golf Club in Mesick, MI is around 3800 sq ft. - more of an oval shape, wider than it is deeper. Depending on which tees I'm playing, the hole plays anywhere from 120 to 140 yards to the center of the green. It's not surrounded by water, but with a pond just a few feet directly in front, you don't roll shots onto this green. The tee box is elevated which makes a green play shorter. For me, an elevated par 3 is an easier hole to play for some reason.

I hit that green 8 times in the last 16 rounds recorded. That does not make me think for one second I can hit the 17th at Sawgrass 20% of the time - if that is the average percentage of better golfers than me. My iron shots are generally high without a lot of roll, but I have no clue how hard it is to hold that green.
 
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