How bad does it get? (Covid-19)

[Scorp]

Not a lot of info in that report but isolating the virus that causes covid-19 is great! Hopefully there's a vaccine soon.

Personally I'm not too worried about the virus itself. Like everyone else, I'm concerned about people panicking more than they already have.

Hopefully, the cessation of sports is temporary and the impending vaccine is released with no side effects and life returns to normal for most people in a few weeks.

 

[NullNomad]

Personally, I’m taking it very serious. However, I get frustrated that I have to act due to the general public’s overreaction.

Now having said that, my longer term concerns come to the economy. The fact that companies are starting to downsize due to the echo effect of the virus is disturbing. Imagine the desperation that could set in when you mix in job loss with all the other panic. I’m speaking to several people that are experiencing this first hand...

 

[Desmond]

Personally, I’m taking it very serious. However, I get frustrated that I have to act due to the general public’s overreaction.

Now having said that, my longer term concerns come to the economy. The fact that companies are starting to downsize due to the echo effect of the virus is disturbing. Imagine the desperation that could set in when you mix in job loss with all the other panic. I’m speaking to several people that are experiencing this first hand...

It is disturbing that as of March 10, the USA is 5th in the world in testiing --
S Korea - 210k tested, UK - 26,261, USA - 8554

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing

Here we show the share of reported tests returning a positive result – known as the positive rate.

ourworldindata.org

S Korea ramped up quickly.

 

[NullNomad]

It is disturbing that as of March 10, the USA is 5th in the world in testiing --
S Korea - 210k tested, UK - 26,261, USA - 8554

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing

Here we show the share of reported tests returning a positive result – known as the positive rate.

ourworldindata.org

S Korea ramped up quickly.

One of many points that show how messed up, in totality, the situation really is.

 

[aljaklaw]

It is disturbing that as of March 10, the USA is 5th in the world in testiing --
S Korea - 210k tested, UK - 26,261, USA - 8554

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing

Here we show the share of reported tests returning a positive result – known as the positive rate.

ourworldindata.org

S Korea ramped up quickly.

If we use South Korea as a modern nation test, we get around a 3.8% confirmed case rate (vs tested) with recovery rate trending at 5 times that of the mortality rate

 

[PuffChippy]

The novelty will wear off and people will get tired of playing zombie apocalypse soon. Then all that cash and pent up demand will come flooding back into the market and things will be relatively normal. This time 2 years ago the flu was killing 4,000 Americans A WEEK and nobody gave a shat, as it does pretty much every year, but we love a good panic so here we are canceling sporting events and closing businesses because we...I don’t even know why.

 

[JDax]

One might start to believe that with all of their efforts to induce panic and crash markets over the coronavirus that the media just might actually be the enemy of the people....

 

[Templet0n]

Not a lot of info in that report but isolating the virus that causes covid-19 is great! Hopefully there's a vaccine soon.

Personally I'm not too worried about the virus itself. Like everyone else, I'm concerned about people panicking more than they already have.

Hopefully, the cessation of sports is temporary and the impending vaccine is released with no side effects and life returns to normal for most people in a few weeks.

There is no vaccine even close. That is a pipe dream.

 

[Jman]

If we use South Korea as a modern nation test, we get around a 3.8% confirmed case rate (vs tested) with recovery rate trending at 5 times that of the mortality rate

Italy will be the better study to watch, and its tilting towards 7-8%

 

[bellken]

Italy will be the better study to watch, and its tilting towards 7-8%

Italy's healthcare system was overwhelmed, which, is why their death rate is higher. The desire to flatten the curve is to, hopefully, get our death rate closer to South Korea.

Don't think it matters if you catch coronavirus? Look at this chart.

The phrase refers to a so-called epidemic curve that is commonly used to visualize why public and individual efforts to contain the spread of the virus are crucial.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Golfever]

It's the end of the world. The Masters has been cancelled!!!

On the South Korea situation from a friend in Korea it is my understanding is that they have taken 210K samples but testing of the samples is underway. A site I was reading said it can cost up $2300.00 for a full set of tests. Not sure if true, so much speculation on a virus that was unknown a few months ago.

 

[e1iterate]

Not canceled. Postponed.

It's the end of the world. The Masters has been cancelled!!!

On the South Korea situation from a friend in Korea it is my understanding is that they have taken 210K samples but testing of the samples is underway. A site I was reading said it can cost up $2300.00 for a full set of tests. Not sure if true, so much speculation on a virus that was unknown a few months ago.

 

[Jman]

Italy's healthcare system was overwhelmed, which, is why their death rate is higher. The desire to flatten the curve is to, hopefully, get our death rate closer to South Korea.

Don't think it matters if you catch coronavirus? Look at this chart.

The phrase refers to a so-called epidemic curve that is commonly used to visualize why public and individual efforts to contain the spread of the virus are crucial.

www.nbcnews.com

Precisely my point. Its why all the head in the sand takes that we are overreacting are funny to me. We have to overreact in order to protect the infrastructure, by tier-ing off the infection rates, the system can still respond. Allow it to go unchecked, and the system collapses.

Too many are hung up on this not having the mortality rates of swine flu and the rest, that isn't the point, this is a whole different level of infection that IS going to happen.

 

[Desmond]

The novelty will wear off and people will get tired of playing zombie apocalypse soon. Then all that cash and pent up demand will come flooding back into the market and things will be relatively normal. This time 2 years ago the flu was killing 4,000 Americans A WEEK and nobody gave a shat, as it does pretty much every year, but we love a good panic so here we are canceling sporting events and closing businesses because we...I don’t even know why.

Uncertainty... eliminating social interaction by 20% reduces the number of infected by 60%

 

[golfinnut]

All I know is I'm glad I have my conceal permit. Which reminds me ... time go get some more hollow point ammunition this afternoon.

 

[golfinnut]

Read that this was predicted to happen this year , the author wrote the article in 2008. And if it is true this should last a few months.

Who was that ..... Nostradamus?

 

[golfinnut]

All I know is I hope this situation gets resolved before tick season starts or we'll be dealing with a corona with lyme

 

[Space Bandito]

There's an epidemiologist on MSNBC right now bashing NBC, the media and the government response.

"When you make the Dow Jones average the leading indicator of the health of the republic, the Dow Jones average falls, and people flip out. So, that's bad. It's NOT the leading indicator of the health of the republic, or of the physical health of the population. And we don't need to do that."

I'm glad someone finally said this - though I'm sure it falls on deaf ears.

 

[mancest]

I think we just hit the tip of the iceberg for this. Estimates are 65-100 million plus end up getting it, how many of those get it with serious effect, I really have no clue. Honestly I hope we learn from this on how to handle something like this because next time it could be something with a much higher mortality rate. That said, even if mortality rate drops to 2% (currently it is at 4% but I think that is high for what it will end up at) that is over a million dead in the US.

that is ******* bonkers.

 

[Dmonaco19]

I have to be honest....

It’s nice to see this many people talking and being realistic about a situation.

instead of:

 

[NullNomad]

I've been a remote/WFH guy for about 15 years now, so the lack of in person interaction and handling of remote meetings for me is pretty much normal although it certainly feels like we're all living through some crazy scientific Darwinian model...

 

[WLG1952]

I'm thinking worst case scenario is the country will enter into a mild recession. Nothing near like what happened in 2007-2009. A mild recession that won't last long. People with investment would be wise to not panic, and just sit tight. Maybe even purchase more investments as the scared investors sell cheap.

On a personal note, based on percentages, if I catch it, I have a 92% chance of surviving it effects on me.

The federal government may wind up visiting their bail out programs again for some companies. Even that's a big maybe.

As for rationing, I don't see that happening. Another big maybe. Imo, the feds will use this pandemic as more of a "politics & election" gig more than anything else.

No, people just need to kick back, protect themselves, and let this virus run it course.

 

[Sean]

The novelty will wear off and people will get tired of playing zombie apocalypse soon. Then all that cash and pent up demand will come flooding back into the market and things will be relatively normal. This time 2 years ago the flu was killing 4,000 Americans A WEEK and nobody gave a shat, as it does pretty much every year, but we love a good panic so here we are canceling sporting events and closing businesses because we...I don’t even know why.

This past flu season killed 18,000 people and hospitalized 350,000 (in 2013 nearly 60,000 people died). We lose 10's of thousands of people every year to the flu and it isn't treated like the Zombie Apocalypse. I am not sure what to make of this virus...are we overreacting, like Y2K...or is all the hysteria justified?

 

[Turtlerancher]

 

[WMac19]

I'm hoping beyond hope that my theory is correct that the spread of the virus is already far greater than assumed.

China has known about this since December and lost control of it in January. All the while, people were coming and going within the country and to and from abroad. Travel on planes, cruise liners, etc.

Yet somehow, the 1st case in the US was only weeks ago? I personally cannot conceive of that.

This is an illness that the WHO reports 80% of all infected would have zero to mild symptoms. And those symptoms would mimic the common cold. It's also a disease that can spread anywhere from 5 to 10 times faster than the flu. Even with ease and availability of flu shots (not always perfect, I know), there can be upwards of 10-15% of the public with the flu at any given time.

I simply cannot conceive that the spread has not already been underway and in massive volume. My hope is that many, many people have already had it, unbeknownst to them, and recovered. Sucks from the standpoint of missing containment measures but nobody with a minor cold would have sought assistance.

It's my hope because if true then the mortality rate would be much lower. But an argument against that is the devastation the disease caused in one facility for the elderly in Washington. Incredible devastation that shows the clear peril for those in that age and individual health group.

It cannot be contained just like the flu nor the cold can. Imagine those being deadly diseases? Good luck corralling them. Can only be slowed, IMHO. Still, hoping I'm right for the sake of the survival rate and the prospects of the vast majority beating this.