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I didn't go all that way to lay up...18°UT right down that cart path over the trees. Then take my triple
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Easy:
1. Attempt 220 shot, fail and push ball right
2. Punch back into fairway, but ball goes too far into the rough
3. Soft 9I from now 130, miss green
4. Chip onto green
5. 2 Putt for double
Never having played this hole, it looks to me like 220 is not exactly risk free either. Push it a little and you're in the trap. Long or left and you have tree trouble. The truly safe shot to me looks to be short of the trap, leaving something more like 115-120 into the green, I'm guessing.
I think I'd probably be pretty tempted to play even a little further right than the red line--more like at the front of the green. It looks like there is plenty of room to miss left on that line.
Imo this is not a giant "risk/reward" shot. The reward imo is very minimal vs whats being gained. Is the red shot worth it for you here just to have about a55 yrd approach vs a 90 yrd approach? I can hit over that trap but for me and my logic its play to the 220 at the turn and even if am less than good I still have a very makeable approach. I just see too many people fail at trying to gain the extra 35 yrds and I always question in my mind - But why and for what? what was the big gain?
So what do you think about this smaller risk for not so big reward shot? Imo its interesting how (even on a shorter hole) people still tend to lose strokes for what imo is not that big a deal to just play what the hole is giving us. Its a easy par with a possible birdie look often enough anyway. Or at least when ones shots are executed within reason. But perhaps (as many seem to do on this hole) you don't agree with my logic.
More than likely I'd take a 6 iron a bit more left of the yellow line, trying to be sure to be short of bunker and the end of fairway. That would leave me with 110-125 in which is much better distance for me than 90. If I'm feeling frisky, I may take a 4w or driver (depending on wind and actual carry needed) and go at the green
This is not a true risk/reward shot between the two shots given. The only reward here is if you are longer and able to go for the green. The two shots proposed give you no benefit for the angle into the green. This being said, the truly safe shot would be to play at the widest part of the fairway while leaving your self the optimal angle to the green. If the tree height to right of the fairway bunker is not a problem for your second shot then a shot around 185-200 looks to leave you less than a 120 yards which for the normal golfer would still be a 9 iron or less.