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Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

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Italy sources saying 99% of coronavirus deaths had other symptoms. Out of 803 deaths in Italy, 18 did not report age. 16 of the remaining 785 were 59 or younger. Only 2 were under 50. Average age of death was 80.5.
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copy/pasting some stuff.
 
[QUOTE]Italy sources saying 99% of coronavirus deaths had other symptoms. [/QUOTE]

Statements like this keep coming up - a lot, and the number is always somewhere in the 90s.
 
87% of all new deaths from COVID-19 today come from just 3 countries. Shouldn't a true pandemic be more spread out globally?

I understand that different countries are at different places in the curve, but it seems not to behave in a manner one would expect... Food for thought.
 
. In addition the Lombardy region has over 100,000 Chinese workers who brought the virus in directly
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:mad:
 
tahoebum said:
The best and most comprehensive 30,000-foot view of COVID 19 from a Stanford professor. There is a lot to digest in the article but he makes the point that we don't know what the death rate is. He makes the case for it to be anywhere from 0.05% to 1%. They need to get this guy on TV.


John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

www.statnews.com

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.
www.statnews.com www.statnews.com
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While I agree with many of the points noted, I'm not sure that his claim of lack of data is really that accurate.... Data continues to flow from US cases and countries like Italy, France, UK, China, etc., Its also quite obvious that with the lack of test kits available (and he references testing 10k random cross section... US not tested 10k to date) we cannot test broadly to understand who in fact is infected, symptoms or not.... from my perspective, we should stop testing those people who are symptomatic and just assume symptoms mean confirmed case.... use the test on those who may have come into contact with said symptomatic person and people they've contacted

That, and I just read that 4/5 confirmed cases of COVID19 were contracted from persons who exhibited no symptoms of infection

My reality is that if we do not act in some manner to flatten the curve as the article references the numbers of cases will multiply geometrically and the numbers of deaths will multiply by some factor..... whether that rate is 0.05 or 0.0625 if unabated and the virus infects 200 million people which is about 60% of the US that's a lot of deaths if my simple math is correct....
 
JDax said:
Italy has the oldest population in Europe, terrible air pollution, an obesity problem and smoke heavily. In addition the Lombardy region has over 100,000 Chinese workers who brought the virus in directly.

Less than 1% of Italian deaths were healthy people. Nothing like USA.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
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So all those old people we're going to die anyway.....?? :cautious:
You can say the same about influenza every year as well..... pneumonia is typically what kills elderly in the country who get the yearly flu despite the fact of co-morbidities like heart disease, cancer, stroke, etc......are pre-existing prior to death. Compromised organ systems are confounding factors for most deaths, but death only has one cause on a death certificate or CDC report

This virus is not just killing old people who smoked, drank or obese!
 
Canadian Tire cries uncle and shutters non-CT locations

We have made the decision to close all of our non-essential retail banners across Canada until April 2, 2020. This includes our Mark’s/L’Équipeur, SportChek, Sports Experts, Atmosphere, Party City, Pro Hockey Life, National Sports, and PartSource stores. Customers can continue to shop across our family of companies online. We know that for many employees, store closures can lead to financial stress – please note that during the closure period our full and part-time employees will be paid.
 
Nate said:
Timeline: The early days of China's coronavirus outbreak and cover-up
Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

Axios has compiled a timeline of the earliest weeks of the coronavirus outbreak in China, highlighting when the cover-up started and ended — and showing how, during that time, the virus already started spreading around the world, including to the United States.

Why it matters: A study published in March indicated that if Chinese authorities had acted three weeks earlier than they did, the number of coronavirus cases could have been reduced by 95% and its geographic spread limited.

This timeline, compiled from information reported by the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the South China Morning Post and other sources, shows that China's cover-up and the delay in serious measures to contain the virus lasted about three weeks.

Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill.

Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak.

Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.

Dec. 30:

  • Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.
  • Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward.
  • Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information.
Dec. 31:

  • Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus' spread.
  • China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness.
Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat.

Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus' complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9.

Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.

Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome.

Jan. 11–17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.

Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China.

Jan. 15: The patient who becomes the first confirmed U.S. case leaves Wuhan and arrives in the U.S., carrying the coronavirus.

Jan. 18:

  • The Wuhan Health Commission announces four new cases.
  • Annual Wuhan Lunar New Year banquet. Tens of thousands of people gathered for a potluck.
Jan. 19: Beijing sends epidemiologists to Wuhan.

Jan. 20:

  • The first case announced in South Korea.
  • Zhong Nanshan, a top Chinese doctor who is helping to coordinate the coronavirus response, announces the virus can be passed between people.
Jan. 21:

  • The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms the first coronavirus case in the United States.
  • CCP flagship newspaper People’s Daily mentions the coronavirus epidemic and Xi's actions to fight it for the first time.
  • China's top political commission in charge of law and order warns that “anyone who deliberately delays and hides the reporting of [virus] cases out of his or her own self-interest will be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity."
Jan. 23: Wuhan and three other cities are put on lockdown. Right around this time, approximately 5 million people leave the city without being screened for the illness.

Jan. 24–30: China celebrates the Lunar New Year holiday. Hundreds of millions of people are in transit around the country as they visit relatives.

Jan. 24: China extends the lockdown to cover 36 million people and starts to rapidly build a new hospital in Wuhan. From this point, very strict measures continue to be implemented around the country for the rest of the epidemic.

The bottom line: China is now trying to create a narrative that it's an example of how to handle this crisis when in fact its early actions led to the virus spreading around the globe.
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This is pretty interesting vs the narrative they had been put out. Does Jin Yang run CNN (Silicon Valley reference).
 
I was on my way to the office this morning when I was told to turn around and work from home until further notice, so I am on day 1 of working from home
If I look at the positive side of things, it means I don't have to get up as early as I have an hours drive each way

I called at a couple of stores on my way home last night to see if I could get a couple of things and it was madness out there - shelves everywhere were empty of stock.....toilet paper, tissues, antibacterial wipes, pasta, tinned produce, bread, paracetamol
Eventually we will get to the point where we do need to restock certain things, but I think we have enough for a couple of weeks yet before we need to start worrying a little bit...
 
Stemmy66 said:
While I agree with many of the points noted, I'm not sure that his claim of lack of data is really that accurate.... Data continues to flow from US cases and countries like Italy, France, UK, China, etc., Its also quite obvious that with the lack of test kits available (and he references testing 10k random cross section... US not tested 10k to date) we cannot test broadly to understand who in fact is infected, symptoms or not.... from my perspective, we should stop testing those people who are symptomatic and just assume symptoms mean confirmed case.... use the test on those who may have come into contact with said symptomatic person and people they've contacted

That, and I just read that 4/5 confirmed cases of COVID19 were contracted from persons who exhibited no symptoms of infection

My reality is that if we do not act in some manner to flatten the curve as the article references the numbers of cases will multiply geometrically and the numbers of deaths will multiply by some factor..... whether that rate is 0.05 or 0.0625 if unabated and the virus infects 200 million people which is about 60% of the US that's a lot of deaths if my simple math is correct....
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These are certainly unprecedented times and the decisions are not easy.

Korea has tested over 250,000 and has 8,000 confirmed cases or about 3% of those tested. It would be nice to know what percentage of the general population has contracted Covid 19 and right now no country has that data. One big question is how long can we practice shelter in place before the fabric of our society breaks down. How long can we keep schools closed? 6 months? One year? Tens of thousands of small businesses will go out of business and millions of jobs wiped out. One of my buddies already laid off 20% of his workers and it’s likely those jobs won’t come back in the next 6 months. How will people react when they don’t have money for rent or food? How many suicides will result from the despair caused by the shelter in place? If this turns out to kill at a rate and number (35,000 U.S. deaths per year) similar to the season flu, is it worth it to shut down schools and businesses each year when this virus pops up?

A quote from the article.

One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.
 
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Canadan said:
Went to the grocery tonight.

Blown away at how barren it was. Obviously some attempts to stock it, but meat, bread, canned foods, pasta, sauce... All obliterated.
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Working at a grocery store, I can tell you that it's impossible right now. We are getting a number every day and we're not allowed to order over that number so the warehouse can stay in business to accommodate all stores. On top of that they are scratching a ton of items from the order. We are all working 10-12 hours a day throwing truck non stop.
 
Reframmellator said:
[QUOTE]Italy sources saying 99% of coronavirus deaths had other symptoms.
Click to expand...

Statements like this keep coming up - a lot, and the number is always somewhere in the 90s.
[/QUOTE]
And that has been the case from the beginning, everyone has said from the start it’s a huge issue for the already immune suppressed portion of society.

The death rate is not, nor has it ever been, nor should it have been the main concern.
 
Local schools announced they will be closed through April 13. Daycares are closing.

Thank God I have a job that I can work from home... I truly do not know what some people are going to do.
 
Sanzabar said:
Local schools announced they will be closed through April 13. Daycares are closing.

Thank God I have a job that I can work from home... I truly do not know what some people are going to do.
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UK schools are closing from tomorrow

Luckily for us, we can both work from home and have no kids to worry about trying to get daycare for them, but for front-line staff in the emergency services it won't be quite as simple I think
 
For those under a rock, one of the main issues is supplies for docs, namely masks because all the dips*** preppers bought most of the supply that WAS here up, or in the case of my wife’s hospital pts have been stealing them for over a month.

My wife is an OB/GYN, not on the front lines as other specialties are, but let this sink in, she delivers babies and her clinic has EIGHT of the good masks left to last. So they are actually bringing sewing machines up to MAKE their own masks, that wont really protect the docs from anything.

This is one of the major issues and why flattening the curve is a must or else the infrastructure in place in the medical field will crumble.
 
J.B. Cobb III said:
Apparently, a pandemic is great for Little Debbie sales. Talked to my sister tonight. Her and husband own a LD distributorship. They are having to get their drivers to restock stores 2-3 a day!
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In times like these- Comfort Food is a "Must"
 
J.B. Cobb III said:
Apparently, a pandemic is great for Little Debbie sales. Talked to my sister tonight. Her and husband own a LD distributorship. They are having to get their drivers to restock stores 2-3 a day!
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Wasn't it Twinkies in Zombieland?
 
Jman said:
For those under a rock, one of the main issues is supplies for docs, namely masks because all the dips*** preppers bought most of the supply that WAS here up, or in the case of my wife’s hospital pts have been stealing them for over a month.

My wife is an OB/GYN, not on the front lines as other specialties are, but let this sink in, she delivers babies and her clinic has EIGHT of the good masks left to last. So they are actually bringing sewing machines up to MAKE their own masks, that wont really protect the docs from anything.

This is one of the major issues and why flattening the curve is a must or else the infrastructure in place in the medical field will crumble.
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I haven't worried much about the Coronavirus until my wife got pregnant! Now, it's concerning to say the least, especially because she is already considered high risk!
 
Stemmy66 said:
So all those old people we're going to die anyway.....?? :cautious:
You can say the same about influenza every year as well..... pneumonia is typically what kills elderly in the country who get the yearly flu despite the fact of co-morbidities like heart disease, cancer, stroke, etc......are pre-existing prior to death. Compromised organ systems are confounding factors for most deaths, but death only has one cause on a death certificate or CDC report

This virus is not just killing old people who smoked, drank or obese!
Click to expand...
My point was that the demographics of that region of Italy made it ripe to be over run by this type of virus, because of the amount of people that have preexisting conditions...

This has been evident the whole time with the China data. I never said that the virus was just killing old people, or those who drank, or those that were obese. But the data suggests that you will have a way tougher time fighting this off if you are in that demographic. 👍🏻

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First confirmed death in OK, in Tulsa.

Positive test 3-17, died 3-18. 50 years old, waiting for release of what other comorbidities were going on.

Bright spots, Ford and GM are willing to start production of ventilators which we are so desperately already in need for.
 
JDax said:
87% of all new deaths from COVID-19 today come from just 3 countries. Shouldn't a true pandemic be more spread out globally?

I understand that different countries are at different places in the curve, but it seems not to behave in a manner one would expect... Food for thought.
Click to expand...

No, not food for thought. This is how it works. The scientific community isn’t particularly surprised by what we’re seeing. What happens in a pandemic is that there’s different levels of community spread in different places. It’s not this smooth, spread-all-over thing. It’s on all continents, with community spread. That’s a pandemic.
 
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