Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

tequila4kapp

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The tricounty still shut down?
Clackamas (furthest from me) is open, Washington (my county open 6/1), Multnomah (where Portland is located) is still closed and has no announced plans to reopen.
 

obedt

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I will use an example. One of the largest OEMs in golf is down nearly 50% in sales year over year. How would habits changing play a role in that?
Or would you say forced closure of stores, courses, ranges and work (meaning less money) caused that damage?

Here is another one. One of the largest apparel manufacturers in North America (not golf) laid off nearly everybody and is hanging on by a thread to stay in business. They own and manufacturer for 17 brands sold in department stores and specialty shops. Would you say that is habit as nobody necessarily needs new clothes when they have no place to go? Or would you say forced closures to both their business and others killed any chance at success and 1100 people lost their jobs?

I know restaurants get a lot of conversation because it is the easiest example as everybody eats, but while there is no doubt for some habits will change, demand is lost, etc. The forced closure of our country is what caused a huge chunk in unemployment.

And I agree it's okay to debate and disagree. :)
yeah, it’s like I referenced in my original post, some industries were absolutely smashed by the lockdown. Others possibly hit worse by the virus itself and the fear it caused. I have no idea how those % bear out in terms of economic factors. I don’t think it’s 99-1, but would be curious to see facts on it.
 

M2Giles

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Clackamas (furthest from me) is open, Washington (my county open 6/1), Multnomah (where Portland is located) is still closed and has no announced plans to reopen.
I grew up in Washington County. Not surprised the Multnomah is shut down with no plans to reopen.
 

JB

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yeah, it’s like I referenced in my original post, some industries were absolutely smashed by the lockdown. Others possibly hit worse by the virus itself and the fear it caused. I have no idea how those % bear out in terms of economic factors. I don’t think it’s 99-1, but would be curious to see facts on it.
You are right, in my opinion it is closer to 100-0 :D
If no lockdown happens, any viable financial business is still here today vs when lockdown hit.
 

obedt

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You are right, in my opinion it is closer to 100-0 :D
If no lockdown happens, any viable financial business is still here today vs when lockdown hit.
For example, Sweden is contracting economically at pretty much the same rate as the rest of the EU. Their economy depends a lot on the EU, but to have it contract so similarly still brings up the question.

I’m surprised you would consider all cruise companies as being completely viable, but that’s just me.

Agree to disagree on this one :)
 

obedt

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Also, I think there is a distinction between lockdown and social distancing. The company I work for (large national company) sent the bulk of its workforce home to continue working before there was a lockdown in any US state/territory. Guessing many companies did the same.

That would severely affect the economy even without a lockdown
 

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Why did we react the way we did? One answer is that this is the first social media pandemic. News and narratives travel in real-time right into our hands.

This spreads fear in a way we have never experienced. Drastic and historically unprecedented lockdowns of the economy happened and seemed to be accepted with little question.
I think this is absolutely correct. Social media is a fantastic tool to spread fear, hatred and lies and it's not just isolated to covid. Social media is an amplifier, and when the state of our media has devolved into bias and clickbait all you're doing is amplifying destructive misinformation, not to mention giving stupid people a free, global platform. IMO Facebook, Twitter, Tik Tok, etc are one of the most destructive forces modern society has ever seen. If we could magically find a way to eliminate those platforms without also infringing on freedom and personal liberty I'd be all for it but that's just a pipe dream at this point.
 

Duffer Waldorf

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Restrictions will be further eased in Mississippi on Monday:

“There will be no more business closures (on June 1),” Reeves said during his daily press conference. “We have guidelines to follow, but we can’t have an endless shutdown. I’m trusting our fellow Mississippians to behave as we further open up our economy.

“I want everyone watching to listen closely. This does not mean the threat is gone.”
--Vulnerable people are encouraged to stay home.
--No more outright bans on gatherings; up to 50 people inside and up to 100 outside.
--Healthcare procedures can resume, but hospitals must reserve 25% of capacity for virus patients.
--Bars that do not serve food can reopen.
--Youth sports can resume, but it looks like it will be a convoluted mess.
 

PuffChippy

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It would be interesting to see an analysis of how businesses were affected directly by the virus vs indirectly as a cause of the restrictive SIP measures.

Restaurants are opening back up, curious how they fare now vs before the pandemic. Industries like tourism and travel were going to get hit hard directly because of the pandemic. Retail was crushed by the lockdown; they probably would have been hurt by the virus itself but shelter in place orders were just killers for them.

Wonder if there’s a way to differentiate the economic effects between the disease itself and the measures taken to contain it.
I think the only way you could do that is to estimate what the damage would have been had the entire world done nothing. Whether someone stops shopping because the store is closed vs being too scared to leave their house because of hysterical media reports, the end result is identical. But regardless, that brings you to first estimating how many additional people would have died had the world done nothing and so far the credible estimates range between 0 and sky's the limit. [trigger warning] So imagine it wasn't covid but was one of those nasty flus we get every few decades (this is not a comparison of the 2). Outside of the general NYC area would people have even noticed? Or would we just say, "yup, flu's really bad this year" and go on like we always did? None of these questions are answerable and even trying has political connotations these days. IMO, if this had been a virus of the nonscary variety you might see a very marginal drop but we're maybe talking 1-2% of gross at best. It may even be so small as to be immeasurable. In the end it's probably fair to say virtually 99% of the economic damage was/will be caused by restrictive lockdowns and the global panic that it caused but who knows.
 

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I want to take a second and thank the THPers that joined the Albatross Club this year. We just got an email from St. Jude (where this club supports) and they are as excited as ever for our campaign and we look forward to once again presenting them with the money in the name of this community.
 

obedt

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I think the only way you could do that is to estimate what the damage would have been had the entire world done nothing. Whether someone stops shopping because the store is closed vs being too scared to leave their house because of hysterical media reports, the end result is identical. But regardless, that brings you to first estimating how many additional people would have died had the world done nothing and so far the credible estimates range between 0 and sky's the limit. [trigger warning] So imagine it wasn't covid but was one of those nasty flus we get every few decades (this is not a comparison of the 2). Outside of the general NYC area would people have even noticed? Or would we just say, "yup, flu's really bad this year" and go on like we always did? None of these questions are answerable and even trying has political connotations these days. IMO, if this had been a virus of the nonscary variety you might see a very marginal drop but we're maybe talking 1-2% of gross at best. It may even be so small as to be immeasurable. In the end it's probably fair to say virtually 99% of the economic damage was/will be caused by restrictive lockdowns and the global panic that it caused but who knows.
I seem to think there was a global panic before lockdowns occurred though. That was the case here were many workplaces sent their workers home before lockdowns were enforced. I agree that the panic set in, whether justifiable in some cases or not, are what drove the economic shift. I guess if you attribute the panic to the lockdown despite the timeline not truly coinciding then you can make that 99% comment. I value the timeline, and from my perspective feel the panic existed prior to lockdowns so view it differently.
 

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The perfect example of the problem with this thing just got posted in another thread on this forum.

 

fupresti

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Here is a fact I read yesterday.

34 states had a higher number of flu deaths in 2018 than COVID deaths. Yes I realize its a whole season versus 3 months, but the flu season typically runs 6 so were not looking at apples and scallions here.
 

obedt

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Here is a fact I read yesterday.

34 states had a higher number of flu deaths in 2018 than COVID deaths. Yes I realize its a whole season versus 3 months, but the flu season typically runs 6 so were not looking at apples and scallions here.
Do you think covid related death projections will be revised with what we know, so that we can compare both if no restrictions had been put in place as is typically the case with the flu?
 

oumagic

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Things are getting a little too "big brother" for me. I received an email from my company and they now have us completing forms for what we do on our vacations. I am not comfortable with this. If I have an employee that wants to go to Tijuana and hit the red light district, I don't think it is any of my business. If I am traveling to Oklahoma in a few weeks to spend with family, I also don't think I should be forced to disclose that to anyone. I am not including our personnel form we need to complete, just the chart we should use to approve vacation. To some it may not seem like a big deal, but I just worry about continuously giving people in charge more and more power.
vacation guidelines.png
 

Snowman

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Things are getting a little too "big brother" for me. I received an email from my company and they now have us completing forms for what we do on our vacations. I am not comfortable with this. If I have an employee that wants to go to Tijuana and hit the red light district, I don't think it is any of my business. If I am traveling to Oklahoma in a few weeks to spend with family, I also don't think I should be forced to disclose that to anyone. I am not including our personnel form we need to complete, just the chart we should use to approve vacation. To some it may not seem like a big deal, but I just worry about continuously giving people in charge more and more power.
View attachment 8946127
I agree, that's way too "big brother". It's none of their business where you went or who you went with. You want to screen employees when they come back to work, fine - take their temperature and check them for symptoms. But requiring a flow chart and submission of a "personal travel plan" for review by a supervisor? Nah, I'm completely not good with that.
 

fupresti

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Do you think covid related death projections will be revised with what we know, so that we can compare both if no restrictions had been put in place as is typically the case with the flu?
You are already seeing some of the data. A majority of the deaths are occurring in long term care facilities where lockdown orders were irrelevant.
 

obedt

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You are already seeing some of the data. A majority of the deaths are occurring in long term care facilities where lockdown orders were irrelevant.
I hear you; it would be nice to have new models though saying how many would have passed without any measures. Places that maybe waited longer to take measures like Spain and Italy could yield preliminary answers. I think most countries locked down or enforced strict social distancing in some manner, and generally fairly early in cycle so sometimes it's tough to get that data.
 
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TheHeez

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Here's a great BLOG from economist Brian Wesbury titled; Miscalculating Risk: Confusing Scary With Dangerous. It's very good and accurately captures some of the dialog in this thread.

A couple of pull quotes if you don't want to read the article.

The coronavirus kills, everyone knows it. But this isn't the first deadly virus the world has seen, so what happened? Why did we react the way we did? One answer is that this is the first social media pandemic. News and narratives travel in real-time right into our hands.

This spreads fear in a way we have never experienced. Drastic and historically unprecedented lockdowns of the economy happened and seemed to be accepted with little question.


***

Hospitals and doctors' offices have had to be much more selective in the people they are seeing, leaving beds open for COVID-19 patients and cutting out elective surgeries. According to Komodo, in the weeks following the first shelter-in-place orders, cervical cancer screenings were down 68%, cholesterol panels were down 67%, and the blood sugar tests to detect diabetes were off 65% nationally.

It doesn't stop there. The U.N. estimates that infant mortality rates could rise by hundreds of thousands in 2020 because of the global recession and diverted health care resources. Add in opioid addiction, alcoholism, domestic violence and other detrimental reactions from job loss and despair. It's tragic.


***

A shutdown may slow the spread of a virus, but it can't stop it. A vaccine may cure us. But in the meantime, we have entered a new era, one in which fear trumps danger and near-term risk creates long-term problems. It appears many people have come to this realization as the data builds. Hopefully, this will go down in history as a mistake that we will never repeat.
Westbury is a guy that I read weekly. I very much respect him as an economist and he is also a really funny guy to chat with. Lots of energy!
 

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The Virginia counties near DC are joining the rest of the state in reopening in Phase One on Friday, which means outdoor dining and limited "non-essential" shopping and entertainment. Golf has been open during all of this time.
 

MagicSpell

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Oh boy , here come the stop watches at work

Great, more irresponsible journalism trying to capitalize on non experts claiming what they heard from others is how policy should be implemented. A quote from the linked article (emphasis added for the scientific method used):
“The scientists tell me that they reckon at one metre, for one minute, that has the same risk of transmission as being at two minutes for 15 minutes,”

BTW, I quoted your post only to link back to the article not what you were pointing out in your comments.
 

PuffChippy

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I seem to think there was a global panic before lockdowns occurred though. That was the case here were many workplaces sent their workers home before lockdowns were enforced. I agree that the panic set in, whether justifiable in some cases or not, are what drove the economic shift. I guess if you attribute the panic to the lockdown despite the timeline not truly coinciding then you can make that 99% comment. I value the timeline, and from my perspective feel the panic existed prior to lockdowns so view it differently.
Yeah, there are a lot of moving parts with different things happening at different times around the world so it's hard to say. What really seemed to get things kicked off was in January when the city of Wuhan was completely locked down and the entire province following just a few days afterwards. I remember it well from talking to colleagues in China at the time and it really freaked everybody out both in and outside of China. Then came the travel bans and whatnot. You're right in that most US states didn't lock down until well after that but by then the media had whipped everyone up into a frenzy with stories about how we were all going to die. So maybe the better question is which did more damage - the virus or the hysteria, of which the restrictive SIP measures were merely a result and not necessarily a cause, although they definitely contributed. With all that said, I still think it comes down to what would have happened had there been no hysteria. If this had been turboflu instead of sexy new covid how much economic impact would there have been and what would unemployment be? As of today covid is tracking right at 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic numbers which killed 100,000 in the US. If you can figure out the economic impact of the Hong Kong flu pandemic in the US then you may have your answer.
 

JDax

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Fauci was pretty SURE FIRE that a “second wave” was IMMINENT...Now, all of a sudden he’s changed his tune. Notable.

(Yesterday)

(April 28th)
 
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I’ll avoid the name calling and just make it clear that this is not a “few months issue”. The economic damage is generational, there will not be a “V” recovery, there will be systemic unemployment for years and the ripple effect through society, I would argue, will be far more devastating then the latest virus from APAC.

While I feel for the situation you mention, as I do with others, it is inarguable that the overwhelmingly majority of deaths have a common theme - age, weight, respiratory health. Yes there are outliers but we know that sickly people and the aged got (and continue) to get hard. Shame on the governors who allowed nursing homes to become death zones and shame on those who exposed themselves to those who exposed themselves to people with pre-existing conditions.


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You have no idea what the recovery will be like or how fast it may happen. But we do know that more people will die than otherwise if others are irresponsible in their activities and social distancing.
 

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