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Is Bryson a Top 5 Player in the World Right Now?

DataDude said:
Probably, wish everyone was playing together so we’d know.
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He wasn’t even Top 3 in the LIV Golf standings, not sure how he’s cracking top 5 when you take into account the other tours
 
Templet0n said:
Data golf which I think is the best way to currently and objectively rank players. Has him at 22.
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They use depth so while it could work as a ranking, it still doesn’t fix much of the issue.

I don’t think too many would believe Bryson is outside the top 20
 
JB said:
They use depth so while it could work as a ranking, it still doesn’t fix much of the issue.

I don’t think too many would believe Bryson is outside the top 20
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It’s just the most objectively comparable we have to work with. I think they do a pretty good job of eliminating bias. I don’t disagree it is not perfect.
 
Not top 5, maybe top 10
 
Unfortunately I have no idea. I didn’t invest the time to watch LIV. I am sure he didn’t forget how to play, but if I had to guess I would say not top 5.
 
JB said:
They use depth so while it could work as a ranking, it still doesn’t fix much of the issue.

I don’t think too many would believe Bryson is outside the top 20
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How would you fix the issue?

Top 5 seems like a stretch. 15 seems like a good spot imo as his major results weren’t very good. Very difficult to say though.
 
all I know is I probably wouldn't give him more than 2 per side!






and get creamed by probably 20 per side.
 
Without looking at those numbers it would be easy to say no, but it's difficult to dismiss him with how he's been playing. He's definitely top 10, and easily in the discussion for top 5.
 
I don’t follow LIV, so the last time I saw him he finished T-60 in the British Open, a full field event.

Wouldn’t place him in the top 5, but probably in the top 15 ish.
 
my perception is not even top 20. Just don't see him play enough. Of the LIV guys, only Brooks did I recognize this year as one of the very best; I saw him a fair amount
 
Acesteve said:
my perception is not even top 20. Just don't see him play enough. Of the LIV guys, only Brooks did I recognize this year as one of the very best; I saw him a fair amount
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Outside of the Ryder Cup, they played in roughly the same events.
Bryson had a top 5 in a major last year.
 
JB said:
Outside of the Ryder Cup, they played in roughly the same events.
Bryson had a top 5 in a major last year.
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At best I have Bryson at 7th, with Scottie, Rory, Rahm, Hovland, Koepka, and Smith ahead of him. With his current play I’d have him in the 7th-9th range.
 
Right now - yes. Wish he and Dustin played in the Ryder Cup.
 
JB said:
Obviously this doesn't have anything to do with OWGR, but what do you think?

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Watch him play of course he is.

Putter has been absolutely one of the best in the world, same with the driver. Irons on approach 2nd shot par 5s has been astonishing. He should win a major this year, he is absolutely tremendous.
 
JB said:
Outside of the Ryder Cup, they played in roughly the same events.
Bryson had a top 5 in a major last year.
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my mental awareness of him is low to gone. I can't associate my mental model of him with a top 5.
 
Pretty close and if not, top 10 for sure.
 
TUGR has him at 23 which LIV is using for rankings.
 
I think he’s 5-7 best in the world
 
Templet0n said:
Data golf which I think is the best way to currently and objectively rank players. Has him at 22.
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I am going to look into the data golf methodology in more detail, but in my first review there are some problems with their data that need to be addressed. The thing that jumped out immediately was how they are using shots gained to create their rankings. Using that data point across different courses, different quality of fields and different setups may be problematic. Further, I think the bigger issue which I am confident would have a statistically significant impact is course selection.

In other words, LIV golfers will always show worse because the player has no choice in which venue they will play. They have 13 events and everyone has to play the same courses. Compared to when they were on the PGAT, they could select out of 50 events and they would select events on courses that fit their game or events with a field that’s not as strong.

Like I said I want to look deeper into the data rankings and methodology. I do see that TUGR has a very solid methodology as does Sports Illustrated World Golf ranking.

Finally you asked about top 5. I think there are two ways to look at it. For a ranking organization Data, TUGR, SI, they rate over a period, let’s say 12-18 months. In that kind of system he would most definitely be outside of top 5. He was really struggling early last year. However, if you are asking is he a top 5 “right now”, that’s a different data point. You would just look at his most recent tournaments. You could easily make the case for him being top 5 at the end of last year.
 
drrussellhogue said:
I am going to look into the data golf methodology in more detail, but in my first review there are some problems with their data that need to be addressed. The thing that jumped out immediately was how they are using shots gained to create their rankings. Using that data point across different courses, different quality of fields and different setups may be problematic. Further, I think the bigger issue which I am confident would have a statistically significant impact is course selection.

In other words, LIV golfers will always show worse because the player has no choice in which venue they will play. They have 13 events and everyone has to play the same courses. Compared to when they were on the PGAT, they could select out of 50 events and they would select events on courses that fit their game or events with a field that’s not as strong.

Like I said I want to look deeper into the data rankings and methodology. I do see that TUGR has a very solid methodology as does Sports Illustrated World Golf ranking.

Finally you asked about top 5. I think there are two ways to look at it. For a ranking organization Data, TUGR, SI, they rate over a period, let’s say 12-18 months. In that kind of system he would most definitely be outside of top 5. He was really struggling early last year. However, if you are asking is he a top 5 “right now”, that’s a different data point. You would just look at his most recent tournaments. You could easily make the case for him being top 5 at the end of last year.
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Thanks for the well thought post. Sure I am not sure there is a perfect way to rank them. I am not sure that I buy the “not able to pick their courses” piece but I can look past it at as well.

In samples where they were all together. Majors. He played mostly like trash.. cut from the par 65 for him master, T60 at the open placed 4th at the PGA that I think was a really good fit and T20 at US open..

He seems to be more focused on competitive golf and not long drive these days. So I would expect him to rise.
 
Templet0n said:
Thanks for the well thought post. Sure I am not sure there is a perfect way to rank them. I am not sure that I buy the “not able to pick their courses” piece but I can look past it at as well.

In samples where they were all together. Majors. He played mostly like trash.. cut from the par 65 for him master, T60 at the open placed 4th at the PGA that I think was a really good fit and T20 at US open..

He seems to be more focused on competitive golf and not long drive these days. So I would expect him to rise.
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You can’t look past confounding variables in any statistical analysis. Looking at the drop of shots gained stats from players after the move to LIV, it’s clear there is a variable that is not captured in their current methodology (and it’s statistically significant). It could be multiple things. Need to dig in deeper. I think on the course selection, we can look at the courses on the season (from last year’s data) and we can be reasonably confident which courses he would have avoided. As an example, there’s no doubt he would have avoided Mayakoba…that place is a terrible fit for his game.

Just based on methodology of their ranking I would expect both TUGR and Sports Illustrated to be much more reliable in terms rankings that match performance when players are head-to-head.

I do think it’s funny you said he played like trash and then listed top 4 and top 20 finish in majors. :) Pretty sure that just about every player on the planet outside of a small group of the elite golfers would take that as a good year. Now, in fairness, I had watched Dechambeau in person a few times leading into the majors and he was playing terribly going into the majors. I think he got about as much out of them as he could given the state of his game at that time.

I also saw him in person at the end of the year and it was such a dramatic difference. This year, he’s starting off hit or miss, but he is miles ahead of where he was last year at this time. I would expect him to be in a great situation for majors this year.
 
drrussellhogue said:
You can’t look past confounding variables in any statistical analysis. Looking at the drop of shots gained stats from players after the move to LIV, it’s clear there is a variable that is not captured in their current methodology (and it’s statistically significant). It could be multiple things. Need to dig in deeper. I think on the course selection, we can look at the courses on the season (from last year’s data) and we can be reasonably confident which courses he would have avoided. As an example, there’s no doubt he would have avoided Mayakoba…that place is a terrible fit for his game.

Just based on methodology of their ranking I would expect both TUGR and Sports Illustrated to be much more reliable in terms rankings that match performance when players are head-to-head.

I do think it’s funny you said he played like trash and then listed top 4 and top 20 finish in majors. :) Pretty sure that just about every player on the planet outside of a small group of the elite golfers would take that as a good year. Now, in fairness, I had watched Dechambeau in person a few times leading into the majors and he was playing terribly going into the majors. I think he got about as much out of them as he could given the state of his game at that time.

I also saw him in person at the end of the year and it was such a dramatic difference. This year, he’s starting off hit or miss, but he is miles ahead of where he was last year at this time. I would expect him to be in a great situation for majors this year.
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Yeah. We will see. I still say he isn’t top 5 or even top 10. Not very competitive this week. I get week to week fluctuations and all.
 
Templet0n said:
Yeah. We will see. I still say he isn’t top 5 or even top 10.
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Yes. I agree. I think that he would be a top 20-25 player at this point. I do think to the original question at the time, how he was playing at the end of the year, he was a top 5 player. He was playing better than Brooks as an example. However, if you look over a 12 month period, I would have him in the 20-25 range.

The odds in majors kind of confirm that. He’s basically a top 15 player in 3 of the majors and about 23rd in the open.
 
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