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Trying to figure out my cash out number on Netflix. Its a puzzling stock.
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Trying to figure out my cash out number on Netflix. Its a puzzling stock.
What is your basis on it?
Thats the problem, with a stock like theirs, there really isn't one. They don't pay a dividend, so long term one is just hoping that they stay above the rest.
On one hand, they are the biggest for streaming, offer the most and have a ton of room for growth internationally. On the other hand, in tech, first does not always mean best, see AOL, Blackberry, etc.
With more media going to streaming, the future could look grand and it could look bleak. Im just not sure where to set it. My gut says $120 and walk.
Fwiw I read an article yesterday that said that Netflix has more competition than ever and has actually decreased their library by 30% over the last year. Made the argument that the days of the race to the largest library are over and it's all about original content i.e. Orange is the New Black or House of Cards.
Like you said, it's hard to determine if this is good or bad for the stock, but it does explicitly say that the competitive landscape is vast...
Their p/e is 370...
Most price objectives I've seen are higher than 120, but with a valuation like that it's scary to stay in lol
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Trying to figure out my cash out number on Netflix. Its a puzzling stock.
Possible ceilings at $114, $117, and $125. If it breaks $125 it'll run.
Its already broken all of those in the last several months, so not sure where those numbers are coming from.
Statistical analysis of the stock history. Just because a stock has previously broken a number doesn't mean that same number won't be a ceiling in a subsequent run. Those levels have all presented repeated interim tops followed by selling on some of NFLX's heaviest volume days. The short interest, and days to cover, are near their 12-month trailing highs.
The short interest is going to try to prevent a run while buyers at the recent 83/84 bottom will be happy to take some gains, and the price has moved above the 50 day SMA and EMA, and is nearing the 100 day SMA/EMA. These interest could collide to present resistance at prior ceilings. However, if the bottom buyers try to push higher, it will likely result in a short squeeze and a pop above the recent highs. The $114-117 level is the likely arena for this fight.
Correct, I get all of that.
Just hard to use "historical" as data points when we are talking about something hit and surpassed in the last 90 days.
Correct, I get all of that.
Just hard to use "historical" as data points when we are talking about something hit and surpassed in the last 90 days.
This one seems especially tricky to me because the entertainment sector as a whole is in such flux. One one hand, you both have new entrants into the original content space (Hulu) which sort of fragments everything. On the other, you have more and more people ditching cable for streaming services.
Started trading w/ Sharebuilder thru Capital One Investing last year. Have Ford, Avista Utilities, and GE right now. Looking to add Coca-Cola, and Apartments.com.
Hey JB, you still in Netflix? What's your exit point? I have a tentative 120 limit, but i might adjust as it seems like it could roll even further.