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Tesla Model 3

I did a lot of cost of ownership calculations before we bought our Tesla. With the Model 3, the cost of ownership really makes it competitive for us with other cars costing $20k.

Here would be rough costs over 8 years for us.

Depreciation - $27k
Finance costs - $2,700($30k at 3% for 60 months)
Insurance - $8k
Maintenance/tires - $6k
Fuel - $0 or less(we have solar and spent $400 less on electricity with a Tesla in 2015 compared to 2014).

That's $5,462 per year total cost per year which is much cheaper than something like a Honda Accord for someone who drives 26,000 miles a year like we do. My wife gets reimbursed $.60 per mile which added up to $7,400 last year which makes would make a Tesla Model 3 free to own!

Honda Accord

Depreciation - $19k
Finance Costs - $2,000
Insurance -$5,500
maintenance/tires - $6k
Fuel - $21k

The Accord totals $6,687 per year.
 
tahoebum said:
I did a lot of cost of ownership calculations before we bought our Tesla. With the Model 3, the cost of ownership really makes it competitive for us with other cars costing $20k.

Here would be rough costs over 8 years for us.

Depreciation - $27k
Finance costs - $2,700($30k at 3% for 60 months)
Insurance - $8k
Maintenance/tires - $6k
Fuel - $0 or less(we have solar and spent $400 less on electricity with a Tesla in 2015 compared to 2014).

That's $5,462 per year total cost per year which is much cheaper than something like a Honda Accord for someone who drives 26,000 miles a year like we do. My wife gets reimbursed $.60 per mile which added up to $7,400 last year which makes would make a Tesla Model 3 free to own!

Honda Accord

Depreciation - $19k
Finance Costs - $2,000
Insurance -$5,500
maintenance/tires - $6k
Fuel - $21k

The Accord totals $6,687 per year.
Click to expand...
What about the cost of the solar panel installation? Also just because you spent $400 less with the Tesla and solar panels than the year before does not mean you are not spending anything on electricity to charge the Tesla. The true measure would be cost with solar without the Tesla vs cost with solar with the Tesla. The Tesla seems to fit your needs great and as said before they are amazing cars but if we are doing comparisons we can't hand pick things to include/leave out.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 
tahoebum said:
I did a lot of cost of ownership calculations before we bought our Tesla. With the Model 3, the cost of ownership really makes it competitive for us with other cars costing $20k.

Here would be rough costs over 8 years for us.

Depreciation - $27k
Finance costs - $2,700($30k at 3% for 60 months)
Insurance - $8k
Maintenance/tires - $6k
Fuel - $0 or less(we have solar and spent $400 less on electricity with a Tesla in 2015 compared to 2014).

That's $5,462 per year total cost per year which is much cheaper than something like a Honda Accord for someone who drives 26,000 miles a year like we do. My wife gets reimbursed $.60 per mile which added up to $7,400 last year which makes would make a Tesla Model 3 free to own!

Honda Accord

Depreciation - $19k
Finance Costs - $2,000
Insurance -$5,500
maintenance/tires - $6k
Fuel - $21k

The Accord totals $6,687 per year.
Click to expand...

So $1,200 less a year as long as you have your own solar power. Curious how much that was to set up solar power panels in the first place?
 
1fairway2anothe said:
you should probably have those tires rotated. I could be wrong but im pretty sure the tesla is not all time awd and therefore would primarily be using either the front or rear wheels to propel it until it needs the other. Not to mention other things go into tire wear such as weight distribution, suspension setup and braking.
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Ours is all AWD and the power distribution is controlled electronically. Under acceleration it allocated power as needed but from what I can find it's about a 60/40 rear/front split. The tires are wearing perfectly evenly maybe because it has an almost perfect 50/50 weight distribution. I measured the tread depth with depth gauge about 5,000 miles ago and it looks like we will get 45,000 miles out of the tires with no rotation. I am about to change the cabin air filter but that is a Mercedes S class filter that will cost me $42. Brakes typically last about 100,000 miles because of the regenerative braking and obviously there is no oil, transmission fluid, or radiator fluid to worry about.
 
cbaker2882 said:
So $1,200 less a year as long as you have your own solar power. Curious how much that was to set up solar power panels in the first place?
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The Tesla would still have a lower cost of ownership for us than an Accord if we didn't have solar. If we did all of our charging at home and didn't have solar the Tesla would have cost $936 per year to charge for the 26,000 as we pay 10 cents a kwh at night. The national average I think is something like 12 cents per kwh. 40% of the time we are charging at my wife's work or a Supercharger which is free.

The solar system was $22k after rebates and we added to our new home loan when we built. It wound up increasing our mortgage $35 per month but saving us $4,200 per year on our electric bill, a no brainer. Here in this part of California having a solar system on your house ads about $30k to the resale value.
 
tahoebum said:
The Tesla would still have a lower cost of ownership for us than an Accord if we didn't have solar. If we did all of our charging at home and didn't have solar the Tesla would have cost $936 per year to charge for the 26,000 as we pay 10 cents a kwh at night. The national average I think is something like 12 cents per kwh. 40% of the time we are charging at my wife's work or a Supercharger which is free.

The solar system was $22k after rebates and we added to our new home loan when we built. It wound up increasing our mortgage $35 per month but saving us $4,200 per year on our electric bill, a no brainer. Here in this part of California having a solar system on your house ads about $30k to the resale value.
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And what was the calculation you did for the $21k for the accord for fuel?
 
lightningbolt44 said:
What about the cost of the solar panel installation? Also just because you spent $400 less with the Tesla and solar panels than the year before does not mean you are not spending anything on electricity to charge the Tesla. The true measure would be cost with solar without the Tesla vs cost with solar with the Tesla. The Tesla seems to fit your needs great and as said before they are amazing cars but if we are doing comparisons we can't hand pick things to include/leave out.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

California like several other states has an electric vehicle rate schedule that makes all your electricity used cheaper if you have an electric car. We used more electricity in 2015 than we did the previous year but we paid a lower rate on all of our electricity. If we didn't have this special rate and did all of our charging at home the Tesla would have cost us about $950 a year to charge versus $2,700 per month for our Audi A4, a smaller car.
 
lightningbolt44 said:
What about the cost of the solar panel installation? Also just because you spent $400 less with the Tesla and solar panels than the year before does not mean you are not spending anything on electricity to charge the Tesla. The true measure would be cost with solar without the Tesla vs cost with solar with the Tesla. The Tesla seems to fit your needs great and as said before they are amazing cars but if we are doing comparisons we can't hand pick things to include/leave out.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

This is accurate.
Then add the difference in cost of the two vehicles being compared.
And what maintenance costs after several years for batteries.

Something was posted earlier about a battery swap, and the information is just not accurate at all.
 
cbaker2882 said:
And what was the calculation you did for the $21k for the accord for fuel?
Click to expand...

22 miles per gallon at $2.30 per gallon. Average cost per gallon in California is currently $2.77 per gallon. How quickly we forget that gas prices were much higher recently. I certainly don't believe that the average cost in the US over the next 8 years is going to stay at $2.30 per gallon. According to this chart I probably should bump that up to something like $3 per gallon which would make the cost for driving 26,000 miles in a 22mpg car $3,545 per year.

Gas-Price-History.png
 
tahoebum said:
22 miles per gallon at $2.30 per gallon. Average cost per gallon in California is currently $2.77 per gallon. How quickly we forget that gas prices were much higher recently. I certainly don't believe that the average cost in the US over the next 8 years is going to stay at $2.30 per gallon. According to this chart I probably should bump that up to something like $3 per gallon which would make the cost for a 22mpg car $3,545 per year.

Gas-Price-History.png
Click to expand...

But gas is MUCH cheaper in places like the midwest where this car is already leaning on the impractical side. We've been averaging closer to $1.80 recently in Ohio with at times decently less, and on top of that my car averages over 32mpg, not 22. So my gas costs during that same 8 year span for 26k miles is only $11,700 compared to $21k for your calculations. As well, since I wouldn't have solar power, and don't have the same rate deductions (I believe, no clue on that) I'd be adding at least that nearly $1,000 a year for electric, making the true fuel costs of the Tesla to at least $8,000. Less, but not as substantial as the original numbers you presented. This brings the cost of ownership into a much different light. Then you add in the inconvenience of have to wait to charge, as well as not being able to charge nearly anywhere around here, and the car has no ground to stand on vs. other cars around here. especially with new BMW's having options that average over 30mpg.

I'll say it again...great concept. Nowhere near practical for the majority of the country. I hope they succeed, I really do, but it's nowhere close to breaking through to the top players at the moment. Especially with hybrid technology being accepted more and more each year, which has a much better chance of becoming more of the norm than full electric.
 
My wife has been interested in purchasing an "S" but didn't want to spend that amount of money. Yesterday in passing she mentioned a car payment (our cars are paid off) I wonder if the Model 3 is what she was talking about?

To really expand their SuperCharger network they should partner with Starbucks. It would be mutually beneficial.

Sent from my VS985 4G using Tapatalk
 
JB said:
This is accurate.
Then add the difference in cost of the two vehicles being compared.
And what maintenance costs after several years for batteries.

Something was posted earlier about a battery swap, and the information is just not accurate at all.
Click to expand...

I deleted the post about the battery swap because it looks like that program is dead.

I did factor in cost of the two vehicles being compared. I assumed the Accord was about $28,000 new with a residual value of $9,000. I was assuming a purchase price of $40,000 and a residual value of a Model 3 at $13k after 8 years, a fair guess. I didn't factor in the current $7,500 federal rebate or the current $2,500 rebate on the Tesla. Tesla currently has a 8 year unlimited mileage warranty on the batteries and one could certainly sell the vehicle after 7 years if they were worried about replacement cost.
 
Really like Tesla's and the new model 3 is no change to that. Wish I could justify one.
 
I find this very intriguing, I drive a TON for work and get reimbursed at the Federal Rate for mileage.... currently $.54 per mile. With the reimbursement I get, I could actually make the monlthy payment and have money left over.

The biggest issue for me is the lack of charging stations in this area....There are NONE in Houston....how is that possible? There is one on the very far north side at a dealership and one in Hunstville......that's it.....none in Houston at all....none in Galveston....there are only 8 supercharger locations in the entire state of Texas!!

When the superchargers become more mainstream I could see buying one, but until then it's just not feasible.
 
cbaker2882 said:
But gas is MUCH cheaper in places like the midwest where this car is already leaning on the impractical side. We've been averaging closer to $1.80 recently in Ohio with at times decently less, and on top of that my car averages over 32mpg, not 22. So my gas costs during that same 8 year span for 26k miles is only $11,700 compared to $21k for your calculations. As well, since I wouldn't have solar power, and don't have the same rate deductions (I believe, no clue on that) I'd be adding at least that nearly $1,000 a year for electric, making the true fuel costs of the Tesla to at least $8,000. Less, but not as substantial as the original numbers you presented. This brings the cost of ownership into a much different light. Then you add in the inconvenience of have to wait to charge, as well as not being able to charge nearly anywhere around here, and the car has no ground to stand on vs. other cars around here. especially with new BMW's having options that average over 30mpg.

I'll say it again...great concept. Nowhere near practical for the majority of the country. I hope they succeed, I really do, but it's nowhere close to breaking through to the top players at the moment. Especially with hybrid technology being accepted more and more each year, which has a much better chance of becoming more of the norm than full electric.
Click to expand...

That is why CA is the quicker adoption. Gas and costs are so ridiculous out there and out of control. Almost double the cost of fuel in many areas. There is no question if one looks hard enough they can make the case that its cheaper to own one. But you have to look pretty hard to do so. When there are a lot of affordable cars on the road getting fantastic gas mileage right now.
 
cbaker2882 said:
But gas is MUCH cheaper in places like the midwest where this car is already leaning on the impractical side. We've been averaging closer to $1.80 recently in Ohio with at times decently less, and on top of that my car averages over 32mpg, not 22. So my gas costs during that same 8 year span for 26k miles is only $11,700 compared to $21k for your calculations.
Click to expand...

It's tough to know what gas prices will do in the future. Certainly the cheap prices now are not helping EV sales but we are certainly seeing rapid growth in vehicles like the 100 mile range Nissan Leaf which sold over 30,000 vehicles in the US last year. If the Leaf can sell that many 100 mile range EV's with a price range of $29k to $37k I think the Tesla Model 3 will do very well with double the range for only about another $5k. I personally wouldn't own a Leaf if they were $15,000 but I see them every day around here.

BTW, here are the average gas price in the U.S. over the last 8 years. Inflation adjusted these prices would be higher. Anyone who thinks gas is going to stay under $2.00 per gallon going forward for 8 years might want to rethink that. A better assumption would be that gas will average over $2.50 or even $3.00 per gallon over the next 8 years.

2008 - $3.22
2009 - $2.31
2010 - $2.74
2011 - $3.48
2012 - $3.55
2013 - $3.44
2014 - $3.30
2015 - $2.36
 
Just out of curiosity as a current Tesla owner, are there any downsides? Or anything you would change if you could?

tahoebum said:
It's tough to know what gas prices will do in the future. Certainly the cheap prices now are not helping EV sales but we are certainly seeing rapid growth in vehicles like the 100 mile range Nissan Leaf which sold over 30,000 vehicles in the US last year. If the Leaf can sell 100 mile range EV's with a price range of $29k to $37k I think the Tesla Model 3 will do very well with double the range for only about another $5k.

BTW, here are the average gas price in the U.S. over the last 8 years. Inflation adjusted these prices would be higher. Anyone who thinks gas is going to stay under $2.00 per gallon going forward for 8 years might want to rethink that.

2008 - $3.22
2009 - $2.31
2010 - $2.74
2011 - $3.48
2012 - $3.55
2013 - $3.44
2014 - $3.30
2015 - $2.36
Click to expand...
 
TripleBogieTim said:
I find this very intriguing, I drive a TON for work and get reimbursed at the Federal Rate for mileage.... currently $.54 per mile. With the reimbursement I get, I could actually make the monlthy payment and have money left over.

The biggest issue for me is the lack of charging stations in this area....There are NONE in Houston....how is that possible? There is one on the very far north side at a dealership and one in Hunstville......that's it.....none in Houston at all....none in Galveston....there are only 8 supercharger locations in the entire state of Texas!!

When the superchargers become more mainstream I could see buying one, but until then it's just not feasible.
Click to expand...

There are no superchargers, but there are plenty of EV chargers.

3Dp7hiE.png
 
tahoebum said:
One thing is for sure, the other luxury car makers better take notice, the Model 3 moves Telsa out of the niche category and makes them a serious competitive threat. The best selling small luxury car is either a BMW or the Mercedes C class which sold 7,000 units in December, a record month. The Model 3 could easily take over the top selling small luxury car spot. With 135,000 already pre-ordered that makes for a lot fewer BMW's, Audi's, Lexus, and Mercedes being sold. Tesla has the highest satisfaction among any car company and my wife and I are certainly 100% satisfied. It driver better than our 2014 Audi and is cheaper to own.
Click to expand...

tahoebum said:
It's tough to know what gas prices will do in the future. Certainly the cheap prices now are not helping EV sales but we are certainly seeing rapid growth in vehicles like the 100 mile range Nissan Leaf which sold over 30,000 vehicles in the US last year. If the Leaf can sell that many 100 mile range EV's with a price range of $29k to $37k I think the Tesla Model 3 will do very well with double the range for only about another $5k. I personally wouldn't own a Leaf if they were $15,000 but I see them every day around here.
Click to expand...

I'm not doubting there is a market for electric cars in some capacity. But back to your original statement...BMW in 2014 sold 142,000+ 3 series in the US alone (nearly 477,000 world wide), and in total sold just about 340,000 cars in the US. Tesla took 3 years to reach 100,000 sales with the Model S. And while in no doubt fairly impressive for a $100k+ car, To think the model 3 will reach anywhere close to the BMW 3 series sales in order to make Tesla competitive vs. someone like BMW is a bit of a stretch.

I also must be seeing different numbers than you, because from what I am finding; in the US alone the 3-series broke 10k units in all but 3 months, and nearly broke 20k in December 2014.
 
cbaker2882 said:
I'm not doubting there is a market for electric cars in some capacity. But back to your original statement...BMW in 2014 sold 142,000+ 3 series in the US alone (nearly 477,000 world wide), and in total sold just about 340,000 cars in the US. Tesla took 3 years to reach 100,000 sales with the Model S. And while in no doubt fairly impressive for a $100k+ car, To think the model 3 will reach anywhere close to the BMW 3 series sales in order to make Tesla competitive vs. someone like BMW is a bit of a stretch.

I also must be seeing different numbers than you, because from what I am finding; in the US alone the 3-series broke 10k units in all but 3 months, and nearly broke 20k in December 2014.
Click to expand...

Keep one thing in mind with the sales however. BMW is having to sell wholesale and Tesla is not. One of those things is going to have to give. Capitalism is fantastic until the government gets in the way.
 
Girardcorp said:
Just out of curiosity as a current Tesla owner, are there any downsides? Or anything you would change if you could?
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Insurance could be cheaper. Ours went up $600 per year over our Audi A4 but I guess that's mostly due to the cost of the vehicle. Of course our 2 teenagers cost us an extra $1,400 a year to insure as well so the extra cost for the Tesla is small in comparison.

Everything else about the car we love. I'm hoping the battery range and life holds up, so far it hasn't lost any range which means it's rated a 285 miles but realistically for our driving at 75mph and stop and go it's more like 240 miles. Maybe it's biggest benefit other than the handling, comfort, and fun-to-drive factor, is it saves my wife 45+ minutes in the car twice each week on her commute to work because she can use the carpool lane. Her getting home faster with less stress is worth a lot.

I certainly understand how a Tesla is not feasable for most people because of it's limited range but for us it's the perfect car. It will be interesting to see what the maintenance costs are over the next 5 years.
 
tahoebum said:
Insurance could be cheaper. Ours went up $600 per year over our Audi A4 but I guess that's mostly due to the cost of the vehicle. Of course our 2 teenagers cost us an extra $1,400 a year to insure as well so the extra cost for the Tesla is small in comparison.

Everything else about the car we love. I'm hoping the battery range and life holds up, so far it hasn't lost any range which means it's rated a 285 miles but realistically for our driving at 75mph and stop and go it's more like 240 miles. Maybe it's biggest benefit other than the handling, comfort, and fun-to-drive factor, is it saves my wife 45+ minutes in the car twice each week on her commute to work because she can use the carpool lane. Her getting home faster with less stress is worth a lot.

I certainly understand how a Tesla is not feasable for most people because of it's limited range but for us it's the perfect car. It will be interesting to see what the maintenance costs are over the next 5 years.
Click to expand...

Wait, you are not seeing the 5-10% loss from air conditioning? That is the talk with every Tesla owner I know all over the country, that AC and electronics take it down 10% easy. Before even factoring in stop and go.
 
cbaker2882 said:
I'm not doubting there is a market for electric cars in some capacity. But back to your original statement...BMW in 2014 sold 142,000+ 3 series in the US alone (nearly 477,000 world wide), and in total sold just about 340,000 cars in the US. Tesla took 3 years to reach 100,000 sales with the Model S. And while in no doubt fairly impressive for a $100k+ car, To think the model 3 will reach anywhere close to the BMW 3 series sales in order to make Tesla competitive vs. someone like BMW is a bit of a stretch.

I also must be seeing different numbers than you, because from what I am finding; in the US alone the 3-series broke 10k units in all but 3 months, and nearly broke 20k in December 2014.
Click to expand...

A fair comparison to the Model S would be the 6 and 7 series models, which sold 17,000 units in the US last year vs. about 20,000 units for the Tesla. Not bad for a 4 year old car company. I think by 2020 Tesla could be selling 100,000 cars a year in the U.S., pretty good when you compare them to someone like Audi who sells 180,000 cars each year in the US and certainly enough to make them a viable, profitable company. Estimates are that they sold about 9,000 units last quarter, most of those in the U.S., with an average selling price of around $100k. As a comparison, the MB S Class, BMW 7 Series, Audi A8, and Lexus LS sold about 10,000 units combined during the 1st quarter in the U.S. Impressive indeed for a 4 year old company. The Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf are the other big EV sellers.

2016-sales-chart-march-v4-750x697.png
 
JB said:
Wait, you are not seeing the 5-10% loss from air conditioning? That is the talk with every Tesla owner I know all over the country, that AC and electronics take it down 10% easy. Before even factoring in stop and go.
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My wife drives in varied traffic 152 miles to work every week and then back again on Thursday. If she leaves with max 273 range on the battery she normally arrives with about 85-90 miles range left on the battery so it's in that 230 mile range. She drives 78+ mph when traffic allows. I certainly know people who keep it at 65 that have gotten 275 miles of highway driving with an 85D. It's 212 miles round trip to our cabin and we have no problems making the round trip commute with 25-30 miles to spare. When it was cold in January and we took it up skiing the range was definitely less, maybe 10-15% less. We've never run it down to zero but I'm told by other owners you have about 15 miles when the gauge reads zero.
 
Man the guy at the dealership even talked about a 5-10% AC runoff. You guys are lucky.
 
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