Corona Virus/COVID19: Local Impact

[MWard]

Not sure if we're talking about the same report, but weren't those estimates based on no intervention or social distancing measures?

Same report. Question is, when did the social distancing and into the UK lockdown begin, and you're telling me that's all it took to bring it down that drastically? Neither have been happening for that long.

 

[Duffer Waldorf]

gov.uk

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

 

[Northerner]

gov.uk

Hmmm, I guess they don't want a good tragedy to go to waste.


Let's hope this miserable virus has been overestimated. Really praying that it has...

 

[tequila4kapp]

Not sure if we're talking about the same report, but weren't those estimates based on no intervention or social distancing measures?

I believe the answer is no. The numbers assumed mitigation and suppression activities were used.

The Imperial report predicted 1.1M deaths deaths in the US, even if mitigation and suppression strategies were implemented. That is to say, 1.1M was NOT their worst case scenario. The worst case prediction was 2.2M dead (which meant a peak of over 60k flying per day).

 

[arydolphin]

*%#*&$!!!! Just got the news that our private club here in MA is shut. No play anywhere on grounds.

...how utterly ridiculous and infuriating. I'm all for social distancing and taking Covid seriously but there is simply no reason for closing as long as the crew can safely work. Mental fatigue is a legitimate concern to have as a nation through all of this. Safe, outdoor activities should be encouraged, not shuttered.

Where are you a member? I’m in Mass as well.

Ever stop to think that maybe the staff didn’t want to work and expose themselves to other people?

I haven’t hit a ball in weeks and don’t see that changing anytime soon. Just a lot of walks around the neighborhood with my dog and son. Just my opinion of course, but golf isn’t “essential” in the grand scheme of things.

 

[fuffle master]

Although I am working remotely, I am catching up on old TV shows. Going thru Supernatural now. And, I am saving money on lunch eating in-house versus wawa. So, I guess there is that.

OMG I don’t know how I am going to make another week let alone probably another month.

 

[OldeDude]

Although I am working remotely, ......................... . And, I am saving money on lunch eating in-house versus wawa. So, I guess there is that.

Working from home again is a blessing for me. Between the cost of a 100+ mile round trip every day (in the state with the highest gas prices in the US), and going out to lunch, the decision several years ago that I needed to be in the office every day was equivalent to a serious cut in pay.

 

[Maric]

Due to a decrease of people golfing right now (and not having our annual influx of tourist golfers) Founders have now closed 11 of their 21 courses in the Myrtle Beach area.

 

[BigDill]

Although I am working remotely, I am catching up on old TV shows. Going thru Supernatural now. And, I am saving money on lunch eating in-house versus wawa. So, I guess there is that.

OMG I don’t know how I am going to make another week let alone probably another month.

I have been organizing video conferences with my high school buddies across the county every Friday night once all the kids are in bed, usually around 10. We have a drink or three and catch up with everyone. Its been fun. You could do the same with your favorite THPers .

 

[PuffChippy]

I literally don’t understand this. There is no cure for the virus. If people are out and about they should see a second spike, shouldn’t they? (Minus some effect for herd immunity).

Great question and I've seen no theories. It makes you wonder if the speculation about the virus having already infected many people they just don't show symptoms or need medical care are true. I read a story today saying that if you felt "off" in the past couple months you probably had it but that was just an opinion thrown out by some random doctor. It also doesn't seem as contagious as originally thought. Another story was reporting that even if you're quarantined with someone who is sick you only have a 1 in 10 chance of catching it yourself. My guess is most people in China were already exposed at some point in the last 6 months, they just didn't know it and didn't get tested for it.

 

[BigDill]

Great question and I've seen no theories. It makes you wonder if the speculation about the virus having already infected many people they just don't show symptoms or need medical care are true. I read a story today saying that if you felt "off" in the past couple months you probably had it but that was just an opinion thrown out by some random doctor. It also doesn't seem as contagious as originally thought. Another story was reporting that even if you're quarantined with someone who is sick you only have a 1 in 10 chance of catching it yourself. My guess is most people in China were already exposed at some point in the last 6 months, they just didn't know it and didn't get tested for it.

My question with that theory is that if many people had it without knowing it, then you would have expected a sharp increase in hospitalization, especially the elderly. Hospitals are only now seeing that increase.

 

[Golf Ghost]

Same report. Question is, when did the social distancing and into the UK lockdown begin, and you're telling me that's all it took to bring it down that drastically? Neither have been happening for that long.

I believe the answer is no. The numbers assumed mitigation and suppression activities were used.

The Imperial report predicted 1.1M deaths deaths in the US, even if mitigation and suppression strategies were implemented. That is to say, 1.1M was NOT their worst case scenario. The worst case prediction was 2.2M dead (which meant a peak of over 60k flying per day).

I just thought I remembered reading that basically those scenarios were if we did nothing and continued life as normal, but perhaps that was the 2 million number. I'm not saying it was a great prediction as I'm not in that field, though at the end of the day it was still just a prediction, like so many things are now.

Maybe that report was also used differently in the states and by the media there. Seems to be that your media is a bit and by a bit, I mean a lot more extreme. No offense.

 

[Jman]

For those thinking this will blow over in a week or so still.

Doc just called me, she’s shook, they brought in a cooled trailer for bodies today, and took inventory of body bags they have available, then ordered more.

Precautionary? Yes. But this is far more real than some are still willing to admit.

 

[CBaker]

Same report. Question is, when did the social distancing and into the UK lockdown begin, and you're telling me that's all it took to bring it down that drastically? Neither have been happening for that long.

Whats the chance the economy hit too hard and now he's being "directed" to change his tune to make people think its actually a-ok?

idk...all you conspiracy theorists in here are getting to me.

 

[scott.french3]

The two courses at my club just got shut down by the county. Ugh. My back feels better and the courses are closed.

 

[TonyB]

All the golf courses in WA state are now closed.

 

[MWard]

Whats the chance the economy hit too hard and now he's being "directed" to change his tune to make people think its actually a-ok?

idk...all you conspiracy theorists in here are getting to me.

I mean, maybe. That's not quite why I posted it, it's more because someone scared the heck out of people with this chart and he was way off. That bothers me, because there's no accountability to it. It's just oh my bad. Sorry I freaked ya'll out.

 

[CBaker]

For those thinking this will blow over in a week or so still.

Doc just called me, she’s shook, they brought in a cooled trailer for bodies today, and took inventory of body bags they have available, then ordered more.

Precautionary? Yes. But this is far more real than some are still willing to admit.

From doctors in my family that are ER and on the frontlines, I'm hearing similar things.

 

[fuffle master]

I have been organizing video conferences with my high school buddies across the county every Friday night once all the kids are in bed, usually around 10. We have a drink or three and catch up with everyone. Its been fun. You could do the same with your favorite THPers .

Just remember to mute the mic and turn off the camera or you may make the social media viral craze.

 

[CBaker]

I mean, maybe. That's not quite why I posted it, it's more because someone scared the heck out of people with this chart and he was way off. That bothers me, because there's no accountability to it. It's just oh my bad. Sorry I freaked ya'll out.

But what would be worse...if he's actually wrong...or he's being "directed" to be wrong.

Not saying you were one of the conspiracy theorists in here, but its been abundant that now I can't stop thinking about it haha

 

[PuffChippy]

My question with that theory is that if many people had it without knowing it, then you would have expected a sharp increase in hospitalization, especially the elderly. Hospitals are only now seeing that increase.

I meant most being exposed in China, not other places or the US. If they were already exposed in China there doesn't need to be a cure for things to return to normal. There's no cure for flu and it pretty much works the same. Considering we know next to nothing about COVID-19, it's possible that it's only more dangerous for old people with very specific conditions beyond the generalizations we're working from today, and once you peak amongst those individuals the rest are in no more danger than with a bad cold. Everybody reacts to disease differently so it may be a long time before we understand all the science behind how it spreads and who are truly vulnerable - it's all pretty much guesswork at this point.

 

[Jman]

From doctors in my family that are ER and on the frontlines, I'm hearing similar things.

Yup, but let’s hear the naysayers spew their BS head in the sand crap some more.

 

[TheDoctor]

For those thinking this will blow over in a week or so still.

Doc just called me, she’s shook, they brought in a cooled trailer for bodies today, and took inventory of body bags they have available, then ordered more.

Precautionary? Yes. But this is far more real than some are still willing to admit.

Stay safe my friend, and thank the Doc for her work in these tough times

I mean, maybe. That's not quite why I posted it, it's more because someone scared the heck out of people with this chart and he was way off. That bothers me, because there's no accountability to it. It's just oh my bad. Sorry I freaked ya'll out.

But what would be worse...if he's actually wrong...or he's being "directed" to be wrong.

Not saying you were one of the conspiracy theorists in here, but its been abundant that now I can't stop thinking about it haha

Based on some of the things we kept seeing after all the advice about social distancing, I have no issue with reports to over-estimate the potential risk in this, just to try and get it across to people who are not taking the potential consequences seriously

 

[Golf Ghost]

I mean, maybe. That's not quite why I posted it, it's more because someone scared the heck out of people with this chart and he was way off. That bothers me, because there's no accountability to it. It's just oh my bad. Sorry I freaked ya'll out.

Maybe I'm in the opposite boat, but I'd rather someone overestimate, cause everyone to prepare for the worse. Than someone underestimate and no one take it seriously, causing a much larger problem.

 

[arydolphin]

For those thinking this will blow over in a week or so still.

Doc just called me, she’s shook, they brought in a cooled trailer for bodies today, and took inventory of body bags they have available, then ordered more.

Precautionary? Yes. But this is far more real than some are still willing to admit.

Is she still doing OB or is she working in another area?